Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 4 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.57    92.09     5.13    86.61     8.64    57.00    81.68    93.69    97.50    98.92    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.26    93.98     4.15    50.83     9.18    -4.13     0.09     0.89     2.81     6.23    17.31     4.98R    0.78  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.37    80.78     2.79    49.17     9.25    -6.04     0.05     0.67     2.28     4.90    13.74     7.06R    1.22  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.68    84.87     3.25    55.13     9.46     3.57     0.34     2.88     7.64    14.50    32.09     2.06R    0.27  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.47    42.57    -1.89    65.79     9.33    19.02     3.59    19.90    37.56    53.43    75.38     0.09R    0.01  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.39    43.85    -2.81    67.82     9.36    21.44     5.32    27.04    47.15    62.33    81.44     0.07R    0.00  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.69    60.35    -2.27    60.68     9.51     9.42     1.13     8.66    19.31    31.65    54.90     0.55R    0.04  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.85    62.00     3.46    51.14     9.32     0.58     0.11     1.16     3.41     7.19    18.94     4.78R    0.79  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.31    46.80     1.35    56.63     9.40     8.46     0.44     4.00    10.21    18.31    38.35     1.31R    0.17  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.80    25.92    -1.95    55.71     9.35     6.00     0.40     3.31     8.41    15.79    34.86     1.57R    0.21  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.59    44.58     0.44    39.43     9.62   -20.37     0.01     0.09     0.29     0.72     2.61    35.73R   12.74  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.47    45.44     0.44    37.23     8.63   -21.21     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.21     0.96    43.44R   15.06  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.11    12.58    -5.41    69.72     9.19    26.57     6.63    35.31    56.18    70.39    86.72     0.02R    0.01  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.73    42.12    -1.90    39.14     9.52   -22.35     0.00     0.04     0.23     0.64     2.38    36.98R   12.93  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.10    54.69    -0.30    43.98     9.04   -12.54     0.01     0.14     0.58     1.45     5.06    17.79R    4.22  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.52    17.70    -1.08    52.78     9.51     3.31     0.19     1.89     5.21    10.34    24.39     3.69R    0.61  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.56    42.72     1.23    40.07     9.60   -17.31     0.00     0.09     0.31     0.80     2.85    33.06R   11.38  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.31    11.01    -1.82    44.87     9.00    -7.23     0.01     0.18     0.70     1.72     5.99    14.55R    3.20  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.44    31.09     0.09    39.07     9.03   -18.12     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.40     1.74    35.79R   11.85  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.70    16.14    -2.91    34.50     8.60   -26.04     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.50    56.49R   24.52  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, Brentford 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.84    97.44     3.47    70.39    10.42     6.82     5.24    11.75    41.00    18.07P    1.06R    0.11  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.22    64.65     1.21    78.59    11.37    22.14    21.93    36.44    70.58    47.04P    0.20R    0.02  
Ipswich          5   10   +3       2.39    77.67     1.87    73.47    11.32    14.08    10.64    20.49    53.62    28.66P    0.80R    0.11  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.60    69.12    -0.44    74.76    12.21    15.11    14.64    25.99    57.08    34.08P    1.03R    0.12  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.18    75.39     3.04    67.02    10.81     6.17     3.27     7.73    30.64    12.86P    2.59R    0.33  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.44    44.53     1.71    76.29    10.73    21.62    14.79    27.94    64.54    39.33P    0.30R    0.03  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.05    87.08     3.76    62.89    11.17    -0.78     1.71     4.33    19.90     7.34P    6.50R    1.07  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.38    79.56     3.68    61.90    10.56    -0.30     1.00     2.88    16.01     5.30P    6.61R    1.02  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.31    54.75    -1.24    70.70    11.38     9.97     6.90    14.75    43.51    22.61P    1.55R    0.17  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.89    62.73     2.01    58.29    10.66    -5.50     0.51     1.48     9.73     3.08P   12.09R    2.36  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.56    43.54    -0.05    60.18    11.81    -3.42     1.50     3.58    15.59     6.29P   10.93R    2.18  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.06    50.02    -1.33    69.55    11.13     8.53     5.21    11.68    39.58    18.68P    1.82R    0.23  
Reading          5    6   +1      -0.54    43.73     1.42    57.88    10.74    -4.73     0.47     1.50     9.47     3.08P   13.00R    2.71  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.53    32.33     0.52    56.26    11.24    -8.44     0.47     1.30     8.39     2.77P   17.88R    3.97  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.22    36.11    -0.23    56.35    10.37    -6.84     0.30     0.91     6.64     2.05P   15.16R    3.29  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.33    23.29    -1.77    59.22    11.02    -4.05     0.76     2.12    12.26     4.35P   11.47R    2.18  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.88    40.56    -0.79    56.20    11.21    -8.12     0.44     1.30     7.89     2.69P   17.82R    3.79  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.64    29.44    -1.22    64.65    11.53     3.53     2.67     6.33    25.09    10.88P    5.40R    0.99  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.13     9.10    -2.90    70.03    11.23    13.91     6.07    13.37    42.25    21.91P    1.71R    0.21  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -1.97    27.69    -2.65    55.14    11.92   -12.36     0.52     1.47     8.02     2.87P   22.43R    6.51  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.10     8.60    -2.41    59.28    10.93    -1.56     0.78     2.05    12.16     4.42P   10.69R    2.01  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.33    21.98    -0.71    49.58    10.59   -17.19     0.06     0.21     2.05     0.54P   36.96R   11.65  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.57    19.28    -2.23    53.04    10.55   -12.17     0.14     0.41     3.90     1.10P   24.92R    6.42  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.85     8.46    -4.73    38.91     9.92   -36.39     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.01P   77.09R   48.51  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 August 2015, Coventry 2 2 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Walsall           5   13   +8       5.28    96.14     6.73    75.94    10.81    18.29    11.39    22.35    58.89    31.03P    0.54R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.27    91.23     2.68    81.22    10.79    23.47    22.99    39.39    75.89    49.66P    0.14R    0.00  
Burton_Albion     5   12   +3       5.40    95.44     3.32    64.88    11.46    -1.79     2.13     5.03    22.37     8.33P    6.95R    0.80  
Gillingham        5   11   +7       4.36    91.97     7.32    73.99    11.36    17.32     9.15    18.56    52.13    26.07P    1.16R    0.10  
Coventry          5   10   +6       2.46    79.17     4.90    70.11    11.36    11.68     4.94    11.02    38.25    17.29P    2.51R    0.18  
Rochdale          5   10   +6       2.47    78.33     5.01    72.64    11.32    15.77     7.38    15.48    47.22    23.03P    1.56R    0.14  
Chesterfield      5   10   +3       2.71    80.99     2.34    75.28    11.10    16.68    10.28    20.88    56.45    30.28P    0.82R    0.05  
Swindon           5    8   +2      -0.65    41.63    -0.71    75.88    11.13    20.13    11.84    22.94    58.85    33.43P    0.73R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town    5    7   +2      -0.03    50.52     1.70    59.58    10.74    -3.18     0.63     1.62    10.26     3.41P   13.34R    1.72  
Oldham            5    7   +1       0.38    55.90     1.28    59.24    10.58    -4.37     0.40     1.22     9.58     2.90P   13.96R    1.72  
Wigan             5    7   +0      -1.79    27.55    -2.86    75.85    11.25    18.49    11.99    23.21    58.60    35.07P    0.77R    0.04  
Barnsley          5    7   -3       0.28    54.81    -2.74    66.02    11.03     1.30     2.17     5.35    24.50     9.91P    5.30R    0.55  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.51    44.08     2.57    61.27    10.90     0.60     0.79     2.25    13.66     4.63P   10.68R    1.29  
Doncaster         5    6   -1      -1.32    33.10    -1.76    62.66    10.76     0.04     1.02     2.64    16.06     5.79P    8.33R    1.01  
Scunthorpe        5    5   -2      -1.44    33.05    -1.32    55.54    11.04   -11.48     0.28     0.77     5.83     1.77P   24.62R    4.46  
Bradford          5    5   -3      -1.47    32.95    -2.42    59.76    10.71    -4.56     0.46     1.39    10.28     3.32P   13.40R    1.80  
Bury              5    4   -1      -2.15    25.95     0.19    50.60    11.52   -17.26     0.12     0.37     3.10     0.93P   41.28R   11.43  
Peterborough      5    4   -4      -3.03    16.62    -4.26    62.14    10.96    -1.07     0.90     2.44    15.18     5.55P    9.74R    1.23  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.80    19.31    -5.94    59.21    11.58    -7.38     0.71     1.90    11.07     4.13P   16.91R    2.90  
Southend          5    3   -3      -2.16    23.74    -0.69    50.68    10.95   -14.51     0.09     0.24     2.40     0.66P   39.84R   10.59  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.37    13.04    -4.18    48.61    10.64   -22.40     0.03     0.08     1.44     0.29P   48.16R   13.85  
Shrewsbury        5    2   -3      -4.65     5.84    -2.83    54.91    11.26    -7.37     0.24     0.66     5.52     1.84P   26.48R    5.40  
Crewe             5    2   -4      -3.06    14.49    -1.08    44.34    10.28   -25.89     0.01     0.02     0.46     0.09P   64.09R   24.86  
Blackpool         5    1   -9      -4.75     4.94    -7.25    48.62    11.44   -22.49     0.07     0.20     2.02     0.58P   48.70R   15.81  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         5   15  +10       4.17    93.53     3.62    99.42    10.89    55.68    80.08    95.33    99.33    96.80P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth              5   12   +7       3.56    86.95     4.63    75.96    10.72    18.54     4.26    34.53    71.06    44.47P    0.13R    0.05  
Wycombe               5   11   +6       2.94    83.79     4.22    77.24    10.80    20.95     5.16    39.65    74.65    49.63P    0.11R    0.03  
Portsmouth            5   11   +5       4.12    91.47     4.91    72.53    11.01    12.86     2.40    23.43    58.79    31.67P    0.45R    0.12  
Oxford_Utd            5    9   +4       1.80    71.68     3.44    69.13    10.79     9.94     1.29    15.05    46.53    22.58P    0.89R    0.27  
Hartlepool            5    9   +1       2.73    81.15     1.83    54.74    10.34   -14.94     0.04     1.06     7.61     2.16P   14.00R    6.67  
Bristol_Rovers        5    9   +1       2.96    84.10     2.18    63.12    11.05    -0.85     0.35     6.33    26.22    10.87P    3.72R    1.50  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.25    78.55     3.52    54.78    10.29   -11.60     0.03     1.04     7.40     2.20P   13.42R    6.40  
Cambridge_Utd         5    8   +1       1.50    69.50     1.62    58.72    10.92    -8.30     0.14     2.88    15.40     5.24P    8.07R    3.65  
Morecambe             5    7   +1       0.18    53.31     1.04    62.23    10.86    -0.62     0.34     5.22    23.63     9.33P    4.17R    1.70  
Northampton           5    7   +0       0.10    52.05    -0.13    62.20    10.98    -1.95     0.29     5.73    23.72     9.64P    4.43R    1.86  
AFC_Wimbledon         5    7   -1       0.69    60.08    -0.14    57.75    10.61    -9.59     0.07     1.91    12.59     3.97P    9.07R    4.13  
Exeter                5    7   -2       0.34    55.35    -1.64    60.37    10.89    -7.08     0.18     3.86    18.59     6.93P    6.25R    2.77  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.14    24.48     0.06    73.27    11.38    18.53     2.99    27.08    61.84    38.41P    0.52R    0.17  
Accrington_Stanley    5    6   +0      -0.31    46.45     0.91    54.79    10.67   -12.08     0.07     1.25     8.30     2.57P   14.68R    7.17  
Carlisle              5    6   -2      -0.53    43.40    -1.40    55.56    11.15   -14.48     0.09     1.84    10.22     3.52P   14.21R    7.06  
Stevenage             5    5   -3      -1.89    27.58    -2.87    65.72    10.96     3.89     0.48     9.58    34.87    16.06P    2.17R    0.84  
Barnet                5    4   -4      -1.18    36.55    -1.20    49.34    11.12   -20.28     0.01     0.54     3.87     1.20P   30.64R   18.40  
York                  5    4   -4      -2.64    19.11    -3.76    54.85    10.41   -10.98     0.03     1.02     7.70     2.50P   13.47R    6.41  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.72    11.59    -6.30    67.16    11.68     5.42     1.22    13.17    40.05    21.35P    2.25R    0.93  
Yeovil                5    3   -4      -3.92     9.64    -4.15    61.07    11.61    -1.18     0.37     5.45    22.13     9.98P    6.47R    3.00  
Luton                 5    2   -3      -5.02     4.58    -3.27    58.57    10.77    -2.34     0.08     2.64    14.81     5.67P    7.91R    3.58  
Dag_&_Red             5    2   -6      -3.43    12.05    -3.67    53.81    10.75   -12.98     0.02     0.90     6.81     2.11P   17.04R    8.72  
Newport_County        5    1   -6      -4.17     6.70    -3.42    50.37    10.67   -16.55     0.01     0.47     3.87     1.13P   25.92R   14.54  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 August 2015, Braintree_Town 1 2 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      7   21  +12       7.05    98.58     5.04    87.38    10.37    31.77    26.75    79.77    40.29P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh         7   17   +8       4.64    90.02     3.71    80.38    10.64    23.69    10.46    56.96    20.47P    0.03R    0.00  
Woking            7   16   +9       3.64    84.83     4.65    79.51    10.57    24.40     9.00    53.76    19.12P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead         7   16   +4       4.73    89.86     1.50    73.61    10.59    10.19     3.07    31.10     8.30P    0.20R    0.01  
Cheltenham        7   15   +8       1.37    63.43     1.72    86.37    10.73    35.32    25.02    76.96    41.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham           7   15   +7       3.80    84.94     4.64    75.78    10.37    18.03     4.40    38.86    11.63P    0.07R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic    7   12   +2       0.62    56.16    -0.67    64.27    10.40    -0.19     0.42     8.95     1.95P    1.96R    0.25  
Chester           7   12   +0       4.04    87.12     2.65    59.53    10.25    -9.95     0.10     3.63     0.61P    5.50R    0.88  
Tranmere          7   11   +2      -2.14    27.74    -3.39    82.34    10.83    29.79    14.76    64.28    31.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town    7   10   -1      -0.21    48.14    -1.94    61.57    10.04    -3.51     0.14     4.95     1.02P    3.00R    0.41  
Grimsby           7    9   +3      -4.23    11.86    -2.65    75.38    10.34    22.54     4.25    39.07    14.42P    0.14R    0.01  
Lincoln_City      7    9   +0       1.39    66.12     3.31    63.91    10.74     1.52     0.39     8.84     1.84P    2.68R    0.39  
Aldershot         7    8   +0      -0.93    40.92     0.99    62.34    10.25     1.26     0.19     6.13     1.29P    2.91R    0.40  
Guiseley          7    8   -5       0.18    53.98    -2.45    43.53    10.19   -33.40     0.00     0.11     0.01P   49.74R   19.76  
Boreham_Wood      7    7   +0       0.03    52.52     4.14    55.49    11.28    -7.43     0.07     2.51     0.53P   13.14R    3.16  
Macclesfield      7    7   -2      -2.91    20.77    -2.38    62.76    10.28     1.64     0.22     6.58     1.54P    2.72R    0.40  
Torquay           7    7   -5      -1.56    34.52    -3.34    66.77    10.60     4.48     0.69    13.12     3.28P    1.41R    0.19  
Barrow            7    7   -8       0.59    59.27    -2.10    43.82    10.85   -36.10     0.00     0.19     0.02P   48.95R   20.95  
Altrincham        7    6   -6      -0.70    44.10    -1.39    48.01     9.86   -24.56     0.00     0.16     0.02P   31.00R    8.83  
Bromley           7    5   -5      -1.24    38.86     0.86    47.36    11.21   -24.06     0.01     0.43     0.08P   35.69R   13.25  
Halifax           7    4   -5      -6.11     4.10    -5.75    56.23    10.53    -7.50     0.04     2.10     0.46P   10.12R    2.06  
Welling           7    4   -5      -3.10    18.04    -1.02    48.14     9.97   -19.48     0.00     0.27     0.03P   29.86R    8.69  
Southport         7    4   -7      -2.98    19.51    -2.87    43.67     9.62   -28.85     0.00     0.06     0.01P   47.76R   17.54  
Kidderminster     7    3   -6      -4.82     7.71    -3.25    54.30    10.33    -9.60     0.02     1.21     0.24P   13.04R    2.81