Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 3 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.58    92.16     5.12    86.68     8.60    57.12    81.93    93.82    97.54    98.97    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.28    94.28     4.17    50.79     9.19    -4.21     0.07     0.88     2.91     6.35    17.40     5.16R    0.77  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.35    80.47     2.77    49.28     9.29    -5.82     0.07     0.79     2.46     5.05    14.01     7.17R    1.27  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.65    84.60     3.20    55.15     9.46     3.58     0.31     2.91     7.70    14.69    32.40     2.08R    0.27  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.43    43.31    -1.85    65.65     9.33    18.87     3.38    19.70    37.46    53.12    74.92     0.12R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.38    44.19    -2.84    67.95     9.32    21.58     5.32    27.54    47.71    63.12    81.99     0.06R    0.00  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.69    60.37    -2.25    60.68     9.54     9.37     1.20     8.76    19.27    31.43    54.93     0.54R    0.05  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.88    62.19     3.51    50.87     9.36     0.16     0.12     1.11     3.20     6.85    18.48     5.12R    0.86  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.32    46.81     1.34    56.59     9.35     8.43     0.36     3.84     9.94    18.31    38.33     1.36R    0.16  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.78    26.17    -1.92    55.47     9.35     5.65     0.34     3.12     8.45    15.48    33.90     1.71R    0.23  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.59    44.26     0.45    39.46     9.60   -20.33     0.01     0.07     0.29     0.71     2.59    35.85R   12.72  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.51    44.78     0.37    37.35     8.59   -21.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.19     0.94    42.89R   14.82  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.08    12.80    -5.38    69.56     9.24    26.36     6.65    35.00    55.65    69.98    86.45     0.02R    0.00  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.72    42.08    -1.89    39.31     9.50   -22.19     0.00     0.08     0.25     0.63     2.31    36.38R   12.89  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.12    54.97    -0.28    43.96     9.11   -12.57     0.01     0.16     0.55     1.44     5.20    18.33R    4.45  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.51    17.49    -1.07    52.83     9.58     3.35     0.21     1.93     5.32    10.55    25.06     3.72R    0.65  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.59    42.45     1.21    40.19     9.74   -17.22     0.01     0.09     0.42     0.98     3.35    32.81R   11.21  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.32    10.84    -1.83    44.86     9.00    -7.24     0.01     0.14     0.64     1.69     5.93    14.81R    3.39  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.47    30.64     0.06    39.11     8.95   -18.06     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.39     1.66    35.92R   11.71  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.70    16.11    -2.90    34.64     8.54   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.41    55.96R   24.54  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, Brentford 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.90    97.50     3.55    70.09    10.48     6.42     4.93    11.39    40.23    17.59P    1.13R    0.11  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.20    64.44     1.18    78.57    11.50    22.11    22.32    36.87    70.28    47.26P    0.28R    0.03  
Ipswich          5   10   +3       2.40    77.90     1.90    73.38    11.22    13.93    10.42    20.60    53.09    28.57P    0.83R    0.09  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.63    69.52    -0.37    74.25    12.13    14.30    13.77    24.64    55.73    32.80P    1.09R    0.11  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.21    75.72     3.09    66.80    10.79     5.85     3.15     7.63    30.08    12.64P    2.77R    0.36  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.38    45.53     1.80    75.94    10.67    21.18    14.44    27.42    63.67    38.72P    0.31R    0.03  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.06    87.03     3.78    62.98    11.18    -0.66     1.81     4.46    20.05     7.47P    6.56R    1.13  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.38    79.62     3.69    61.94    10.63    -0.33     1.07     2.98    16.34     5.59P    6.61R    1.00  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.28    54.19    -1.27    71.30    11.33    10.76     7.70    15.84    45.76    24.12P    1.27R    0.18  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.94    63.30     2.08    58.47    10.69    -5.28     0.66     1.66    10.10     3.20P   11.76R    2.26  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.54    43.70    -0.03    60.04    11.70    -3.67     1.31     3.34    15.32     6.04P   11.32R    2.24  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.06    49.81    -1.36    69.42    11.01     8.42     5.15    11.66    39.12    18.50P    1.84R    0.26  
Reading          5    6   +1      -0.58    43.39     1.38    57.97    10.72    -4.59     0.51     1.53     9.56     3.13P   12.74R    2.59  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.54    32.20     0.51    56.29    11.28    -8.45     0.52     1.37     8.25     2.65P   18.19R    4.03  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.21    36.25    -0.23    56.38    10.59    -6.86     0.36     0.96     7.21     2.39P   16.16R    3.38  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.35    23.07    -1.80    59.16    11.11    -4.15     0.86     2.18    12.29     4.37P   11.48R    2.28  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.88    40.55    -0.79    56.09    11.09    -8.22     0.35     1.08     7.90     2.63P   18.01R    3.72  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.60    29.91    -1.19    64.77    11.53     3.68     2.82     6.55    25.57    11.14P    5.19R    0.89  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.14     9.19    -2.91    70.03    11.24    13.94     6.34    13.61    42.51    21.97P    1.70R    0.24  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -2.08    26.34    -2.81    55.96    11.91   -11.07     0.69     1.68     9.03     3.35P   20.54R    5.72  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.10     8.56    -2.43    59.18    10.87    -1.69     0.64     1.91    11.61     4.23P   10.85R    2.16  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.37    21.42    -0.77    49.91    10.69   -16.66     0.06     0.22     2.40     0.63P   36.44R   11.29  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.59    19.10    -2.26    52.96    10.47   -12.26     0.11     0.40     3.74     0.97P   25.33R    6.39  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.86     8.37    -4.75    38.76     9.92   -36.70     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.03P   77.59R   49.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 August 2015, Coventry 2 2 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Walsall           5   13   +8       5.23    95.92     6.68    76.16    10.79    18.54    11.50    22.56    59.64    31.60P    0.48R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.29    91.33     2.72    81.04    10.79    23.24    22.06    38.21    75.50    49.05P    0.12R    0.01  
Burton_Albion     5   12   +3       5.37    95.42     3.30    64.87    11.54    -1.85     2.07     5.01    22.31     8.38P    7.21R    0.82  
Gillingham        5   11   +7       4.34    91.86     7.28    74.08    11.41    17.36     9.46    18.64    52.02    26.16P    1.10R    0.07  
Coventry          5   10   +6       2.50    79.68     4.97    70.05    11.26    11.67     4.81    10.61    38.01    16.77P    2.47R    0.20  
Rochdale          5   10   +6       2.47    78.44     5.01    72.80    11.16    15.99     7.28    15.75    47.37    23.14P    1.36R    0.10  
Chesterfield      5   10   +3       2.75    81.15     2.36    75.20    11.10    16.62    10.18    20.54    55.82    29.76P    0.70R    0.05  
Swindon           5    8   +2      -0.67    41.49    -0.78    76.18    11.19    20.56    12.47    24.01    59.81    34.37P    0.65R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town    5    7   +2      -0.03    50.40     1.67    59.52    10.74    -3.25     0.53     1.50    10.25     3.31P   13.46R    1.76  
Oldham            5    7   +1       0.35    55.59     1.25    59.26    10.71    -4.35     0.44     1.30     9.61     2.90P   14.19R    1.88  
Wigan             5    7   +0      -1.83    27.23    -2.91    76.15    11.34    18.90    12.65    23.95    59.44    35.80P    0.67R    0.04  
Barnsley          5    7   -3       0.27    54.68    -2.75    66.01    11.08     1.28     2.01     5.07    24.39     9.59P    5.45R    0.55  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.48    44.38     2.62    61.21    11.01     0.57     0.85     2.32    13.85     4.86P   10.90R    1.39  
Doncaster         5    6   -1      -1.30    33.50    -1.72    62.44    10.77    -0.34     0.95     2.54    15.32     5.39P    8.55R    0.99  
Scunthorpe        5    5   -2      -1.41    33.62    -1.28    55.38    11.00   -11.74     0.23     0.65     5.59     1.58P   24.73R    4.53  
Bradford          5    5   -3      -1.47    32.93    -2.40    59.68    10.59    -4.70     0.41     1.33     9.80     3.17P   13.06R    1.70  
Bury              5    4   -1      -2.13    26.05     0.23    50.39    11.55   -17.65     0.10     0.32     2.89     0.80P   41.76R   12.12  
Peterborough      5    4   -4      -3.00    17.00    -4.22    61.87    10.87    -1.42     0.76     2.23    14.33     5.14P   10.10R    1.22  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.80    19.29    -5.93    59.18    11.73    -7.46     0.72     2.00    11.37     4.24P   17.26R    2.99  
Southend          5    3   -3      -2.15    23.84    -0.66    50.44    11.00   -14.83     0.09     0.23     2.40     0.73P   40.86R   10.76  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.36    13.26    -4.16    48.72    10.75   -22.26     0.05     0.12     1.54     0.40P   47.65R   13.94  
Shrewsbury        5    2   -3      -4.69     5.78    -2.88    55.14    11.47    -7.00     0.30     0.88     6.21     2.19P   25.77R    5.48  
Crewe             5    2   -4      -3.09    14.47    -1.14    44.50    10.43   -25.56     0.02     0.03     0.56     0.12P   63.40R   24.13  
Blackpool         5    1   -9      -4.74     4.99    -7.25    48.72    11.42   -22.33     0.06     0.19     1.98     0.58P   48.09R   15.20  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         5   15  +10       4.17    93.45     3.62    99.30    11.00    55.54    79.26    95.20    99.25    96.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Plymouth              5   12   +7       3.52    86.91     4.59    76.13    10.67    18.75     4.31    35.04    71.42    45.28P    0.13R    0.02  
Wycombe               5   11   +6       2.92    83.58     4.19    77.26    10.84    21.03     5.48    39.24    74.85    49.47P    0.11R    0.04  
Portsmouth            5   11   +5       4.08    91.34     4.87    72.53    11.01    12.87     2.53    23.70    58.99    32.11P    0.44R    0.13  
Oxford_Utd            5    9   +4       1.82    71.87     3.46    68.97    10.84     9.72     1.27    14.90    46.17    22.53P    1.03R    0.38  
Hartlepool            5    9   +1       2.70    81.04     1.79    54.83    10.33   -14.70     0.04     1.13     7.58     2.30P   13.82R    6.62  
Bristol_Rovers        5    9   +1       2.95    84.14     2.16    63.13    11.06    -0.83     0.34     6.44    26.05    10.76P    3.79R    1.62  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.18    77.71     3.43    55.14    10.33   -11.08     0.05     1.15     8.08     2.38P   12.89R    5.98  
Cambridge_Utd         5    8   +1       1.50    69.31     1.63    58.67    10.92    -8.46     0.11     2.86    15.26     5.10P    8.08R    3.51  
Morecambe             5    7   +1       0.16    52.97     1.01    62.05    10.84    -0.88     0.28     5.08    23.21     9.07P    4.44R    1.83  
Northampton           5    7   +0       0.06    51.56    -0.19    62.64    10.99    -1.27     0.40     5.95    24.83    10.19P    4.04R    1.69  
AFC_Wimbledon         5    7   -1       0.72    60.46    -0.12    57.67    10.70    -9.71     0.10     2.12    12.61     4.15P    9.45R    4.28  
Exeter                5    7   -2       0.34    55.51    -1.63    60.39    10.90    -7.03     0.20     3.95    18.73     7.01P    6.17R    2.66  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.13    24.96     0.09    73.01    11.53    18.10     3.18    27.03    60.98    37.85P    0.63R    0.20  
Accrington_Stanley    5    6   +0      -0.27    47.05     0.98    54.56    10.70   -12.46     0.04     1.22     8.06     2.50P   15.25R    7.67  
Carlisle              5    6   -2      -0.50    43.76    -1.37    55.87    11.10   -14.01     0.08     1.83    10.46     3.52P   13.47R    6.87  
Stevenage             5    5   -3      -1.87    27.72    -2.86    65.71    10.91     3.91     0.57     9.34    34.58    15.96P    2.13R    0.79  
Barnet                5    4   -4      -1.16    36.62    -1.17    49.40    11.03   -20.26     0.02     0.55     3.89     1.17P   30.84R   18.41  
York                  5    4   -4      -2.61    19.45    -3.72    54.64    10.27   -11.29     0.02     0.90     7.29     2.23P   13.63R    6.48  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.69    11.82    -6.28    67.07    11.68     5.36     1.27    13.10    39.78    20.87P    2.17R    0.89  
Yeovil                5    3   -4      -3.92     9.59    -4.13    60.99    11.57    -1.25     0.30     5.39    22.13     9.88P    6.35R    2.90  
Luton                 5    2   -3      -5.02     4.55    -3.28    58.53    10.74    -2.47     0.09     2.54    14.78     5.60P    7.88R    3.59  
Dag_&_Red             5    2   -6      -3.42    12.20    -3.68    53.80    10.82   -13.02     0.03     0.97     7.14     2.32P   17.15R    8.86  
Newport_County        5    1   -6      -4.19     6.63    -3.42    50.39    10.67   -16.56     0.02     0.39     3.88     1.08P   26.11R   14.61  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 August 2015, Braintree_Town 1 2 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      7   21  +12       7.08    98.54     5.10    87.23    10.35    31.55    26.51    79.39    39.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh         7   17   +8       4.65    89.59     3.74    80.33    10.71    23.54    10.46    56.84    20.49P    0.03R    0.00  
Woking            7   16   +9       3.70    85.24     4.75    79.48    10.55    24.29     8.87    53.76    18.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead         7   16   +4       4.75    90.10     1.54    73.67    10.51    10.22     3.04    31.38     8.49P    0.19R    0.00  
Cheltenham        7   15   +8       1.37    63.59     1.71    86.31    10.76    35.24    25.05    77.03    41.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham           7   15   +7       3.79    84.81     4.61    75.64    10.34    17.82     4.32    38.77    11.44P    0.08R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic    7   12   +2       0.63    56.51    -0.62    64.06    10.33    -0.48     0.39     8.64     1.87P    2.01R    0.22  
Chester           7   12   +0       4.05    87.54     2.65    59.49    10.28   -10.04     0.11     3.56     0.54P    5.74R    0.94  
Tranmere          7   11   +2      -2.24    26.66    -3.55    82.64    10.74    30.37    15.14    65.63    32.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town    7   10   -1      -0.22    47.92    -1.96    61.69    10.06    -3.32     0.18     5.06     1.07P    3.22R    0.46  
Grimsby           7    9   +3      -4.22    11.95    -2.64    75.31    10.37    22.42     4.41    38.70    14.49P    0.12R    0.01  
Lincoln_City      7    9   +0       1.37    66.03     3.29    63.79    10.74     1.38     0.35     8.60     1.80P    2.90R    0.45  
Aldershot         7    8   +0      -0.95    40.96     0.93    62.48    10.37     1.47     0.20     6.42     1.32P    3.02R    0.40  
Guiseley          7    8   -5       0.17    53.83    -2.48    43.76    10.27   -32.92     0.00     0.13     0.03P   49.17R   19.74  
Boreham_Wood      7    7   +0       0.06    52.90     4.19    55.28    11.19    -7.76     0.05     2.36     0.49P   13.40R    3.33  
Macclesfield      7    7   -2      -2.85    21.27    -2.34    62.74    10.24     1.56     0.23     6.66     1.57P    2.70R    0.39  
Torquay           7    7   -5      -1.55    34.70    -3.31    66.66    10.47     4.28     0.59    12.56     3.05P    1.34R    0.16  
Barrow            7    7   -8       0.65    59.98    -2.00    43.68    10.87   -36.49     0.00     0.20     0.02P   49.90R   21.52  
Altrincham        7    6   -6      -0.71    43.68    -1.46    48.20     9.80   -24.23     0.00     0.21     0.02P   30.41R    8.44  
Bromley           7    5   -5      -1.29    38.14     0.72    47.59    11.32   -23.59     0.01     0.55     0.10P   35.11R   13.08  
Halifax           7    4   -5      -6.09     3.95    -5.68    56.13    10.42    -7.63     0.06     2.01     0.44P   10.00R    1.97  
Welling           7    4   -5      -3.11    18.02    -1.05    48.22     9.96   -19.39     0.00     0.25     0.04P   29.89R    8.79  
Southport         7    4   -7      -3.00    19.21    -2.91    43.79     9.65   -28.63     0.00     0.05     0.00P   47.45R   17.29  
Kidderminster     7    3   -6      -4.80     7.76    -3.24    54.28    10.30    -9.66     0.03     1.21     0.21P   13.27R    2.81