Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 2 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.54    91.91     5.07    86.66     8.59    57.00    82.08    93.88    97.60    98.97    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.27    94.17     4.17    50.73     9.17    -4.20     0.08     0.96     2.94     6.28    17.07     4.94R    0.84  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.39    80.85     2.81    49.13     9.24    -6.08     0.08     0.73     2.27     4.87    13.57     7.35R    1.31  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.68    84.83     3.25    55.15     9.39     3.57     0.30     2.79     7.55    14.27    32.16     1.95R    0.25  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.48    42.52    -1.92    65.85     9.32    19.17     3.47    20.03    37.90    53.82    75.76     0.10R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.40    43.69    -2.84    68.01     9.32    21.68     5.32    27.66    47.98    63.36    82.15     0.05R    0.01  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.70    60.50    -2.23    60.60     9.54     9.32     1.20     8.59    19.13    31.07    54.53     0.54R    0.06  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.85    62.13     3.47    51.13     9.26     0.56     0.10     1.11     3.22     6.96    18.68     4.74R    0.78  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.33    46.63     1.33    56.74     9.37     8.62     0.40     4.10    10.30    18.87    39.23     1.32R    0.20  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.81    25.96    -1.95    55.51     9.41     5.71     0.34     3.09     8.27    15.39    34.04     1.79R    0.26  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.59    44.42     0.42    39.54     9.71   -20.17     0.01     0.09     0.34     0.80     2.86    35.64R   12.91  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.51    44.91     0.39    37.40     8.59   -20.99     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.24     0.99    42.90R   14.58  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.09    12.88    -5.38    69.53     9.15    26.29     6.39    34.48    55.21    70.06    86.52     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.71    42.30    -1.87    39.28     9.56   -22.21     0.01     0.07     0.24     0.69     2.47    36.50R   12.76  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.09    54.66    -0.28    43.85     9.04   -12.75     0.01     0.15     0.52     1.32     4.81    18.28R    4.42  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.47    18.19    -1.03    52.65     9.54     3.12     0.20     1.93     5.12     9.93    24.20     3.79R    0.72  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.54    42.95     1.28    39.85     9.58   -17.74     0.01     0.08     0.32     0.76     2.77    33.99R   11.77  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.35    10.68    -1.88    45.04     9.06    -6.97     0.01     0.23     0.84     1.89     6.31    14.36R    3.25  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.43    31.31     0.10    39.08     9.02   -18.07     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.37     1.70    35.54R   11.89  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.72    16.07    -2.91    34.63     8.55   -25.87     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.07     0.43    56.19R   23.98  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, Brentford 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.86    97.55     3.50    70.44    10.45     6.95     5.33    12.12    41.42    18.52P    0.91R    0.09  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.23    64.71     1.23    78.34    11.53    21.71    21.62    35.87    69.45    46.11P    0.30R    0.02  
Ipswich          5   10   +3       2.38    77.78     1.88    73.41    11.26    13.98    10.20    20.62    53.93    28.97P    0.91R    0.11  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.63    69.55    -0.38    74.49    12.14    14.66    14.12    25.10    56.55    33.16P    1.02R    0.12  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.18    75.35     3.03    67.15    10.85     6.33     3.45     8.19    31.12    13.28P    2.45R    0.31  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.43    44.69     1.71    76.16    10.68    21.48    14.68    27.92    64.20    39.14P    0.25R    0.03  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.04    86.93     3.74    62.84    11.17    -0.77     1.63     4.19    19.67     7.14P    6.64R    1.15  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.35    79.36     3.64    61.91    10.58    -0.30     1.05     2.93    16.19     5.50P    6.50R    1.06  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.32    54.80    -1.24    70.96    11.47    10.30     7.65    15.29    44.42    23.45P    1.47R    0.20  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.88    62.54     1.99    58.72    10.68    -4.98     0.58     1.70    10.60     3.53P   11.48R    2.12  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.54    43.52    -0.02    60.10    11.75    -3.51     1.37     3.39    15.42     6.19P   11.29R    2.45  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.05    50.16    -1.31    69.25    11.11     8.23     5.05    11.37    38.73    18.07P    1.95R    0.24  
Reading          5    6   +1      -0.55    43.53     1.38    58.09    10.70    -4.41     0.55     1.53     9.52     3.14P   12.60R    2.63  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.54    32.25     0.51    56.23    11.18    -8.37     0.45     1.23     8.22     2.58P   18.21R    4.17  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.21    36.14    -0.21    56.13    10.43    -7.18     0.27     0.86     6.60     2.03P   15.92R    3.42  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.30    23.58    -1.75    58.91    11.09    -4.56     0.69     2.00    11.73     4.07P   12.14R    2.46  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.86    40.83    -0.77    55.85    11.13    -8.58     0.42     1.08     7.53     2.51P   18.52R    4.32  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.64    29.57    -1.24    64.80    11.58     3.76     2.85     6.64    25.74    11.12P    5.14R    0.95  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.09     9.50    -2.85    70.15    11.26    14.09     6.50    13.94    42.83    22.53P    1.69R    0.24  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -1.98    27.36    -2.65    55.25    11.85   -12.22     0.60     1.45     7.97     2.91P   22.14R    6.27  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.09     8.69    -2.42    59.35    10.88    -1.42     0.75     2.00    12.08     4.47P   10.49R    2.15  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.35    21.57    -0.75    49.84    10.53   -16.83     0.04     0.22     2.11     0.52P   35.99R   11.24  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.57    19.24    -2.23    52.91    10.51   -12.35     0.13     0.38     3.81     1.00P   25.52R    6.57  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.90     8.26    -4.80    39.17     9.94   -36.01     0.00     0.01     0.15     0.03P   76.48R   47.68  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 August 2015, Coventry 2 2 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Walsall           5   13   +8       5.29    96.19     6.75    75.83    10.65    18.06    11.03    21.84    58.47    30.64P    0.47R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.27    91.21     2.68    81.05    10.87    23.28    22.72    38.63    75.49    49.12P    0.15R    0.01  
Burton_Albion     5   12   +3       5.40    95.59     3.34    64.76    11.51    -1.95     2.12     4.99    21.90     8.30P    7.36R    0.82  
Gillingham        5   11   +7       4.34    91.86     7.30    74.01    11.29    17.26     9.17    18.61    52.27    26.15P    1.14R    0.07  
Coventry          5   10   +6       2.45    79.07     4.91    70.28    11.29    11.96     5.04    11.42    39.04    17.66P    2.54R    0.22  
Rochdale          5   10   +6       2.51    79.03     5.06    72.57    11.27    15.65     7.46    15.43    47.06    22.82P    1.52R    0.08  
Chesterfield      5   10   +3       2.73    81.11     2.36    75.14    11.11    16.54    10.43    20.79    55.98    30.18P    0.78R    0.06  
Swindon           5    8   +2      -0.67    41.53    -0.75    75.94    11.29    20.22    12.35    23.76    59.06    34.05P    0.78R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town    5    7   +2      -0.01    50.88     1.71    59.63    10.73    -3.07     0.57     1.63    10.48     3.44P   13.33R    1.68  
Oldham            5    7   +1       0.35    55.67     1.25    59.37    10.63    -4.16     0.44     1.32     9.76     3.04P   13.75R    1.79  
Wigan             5    7   +0      -1.77    27.76    -2.83    75.72    11.23    18.34    11.84    22.99    58.04    34.58P    0.69R    0.04  
Barnsley          5    7   -3       0.21    53.82    -2.84    66.53    11.06     2.08     2.34     5.75    26.28    10.58P    4.90R    0.48  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.47    44.57     2.62    61.02    10.92     0.30     0.70     2.00    13.23     4.52P   11.41R    1.47  
Doncaster         5    6   -1      -1.31    33.24    -1.74    62.34    10.85    -0.49     0.97     2.65    15.55     5.64P    8.96R    1.01  
Scunthorpe        5    5   -2      -1.43    33.22    -1.32    55.50    10.99   -11.53     0.17     0.66     5.78     1.65P   24.75R    4.62  
Bradford          5    5   -3      -1.42    33.26    -2.36    59.52    10.72    -4.89     0.45     1.34    10.11     3.22P   13.84R    2.04  
Bury              5    4   -1      -2.14    26.08     0.19    50.64    11.59   -17.22     0.10     0.37     3.18     0.93P   41.41R   11.80  
Peterborough      5    4   -4      -3.02    16.93    -4.25    61.86    11.01    -1.46     0.94     2.47    14.74     5.44P   10.32R    1.34  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.79    19.45    -5.94    59.33    11.51    -7.28     0.73     1.92    11.16     4.21P   16.35R    2.70  
Southend          5    3   -3      -2.19    23.39    -0.71    50.64    11.01   -14.62     0.07     0.25     2.41     0.69P   40.29R   10.69  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.36    13.33    -4.18    48.79    10.71   -22.13     0.02     0.14     1.51     0.37P   47.73R   13.93  
Shrewsbury        5    2   -3      -4.67     5.78    -2.84    55.08    11.44    -7.04     0.29     0.85     6.14     2.14P   26.06R    5.52  
Crewe             5    2   -4      -3.09    14.27    -1.13    44.42    10.24   -25.74     0.00     0.02     0.42     0.09P   63.85R   24.41  
Blackpool         5    1   -9      -4.77     4.76    -7.29    48.86    11.35   -22.10     0.06     0.18     1.96     0.53P   47.65R   15.15  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         5   15  +10       4.16    93.43     3.60    99.20    11.02    55.36    79.27    95.01    99.24    96.65P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth              5   12   +7       3.53    86.81     4.58    76.13    10.66    18.79     4.25    35.16    71.45    45.30P    0.11R    0.03  
Wycombe               5   11   +6       2.91    83.39     4.16    77.42    10.71    21.24     5.38    39.71    75.19    49.76P    0.08R    0.03  
Portsmouth            5   11   +5       4.14    91.66     4.93    72.44    11.08    12.77     2.49    23.40    58.34    31.75P    0.50R    0.17  
Oxford_Utd            5    9   +4       1.85    72.01     3.50    69.06    10.84     9.79     1.34    14.97    46.16    22.53P    0.88R    0.29  
Hartlepool            5    9   +1       2.68    80.52     1.74    55.00    10.32   -14.48     0.05     1.12     7.89     2.25P   13.43R    6.23  
Bristol_Rovers        5    9   +1       2.96    84.10     2.17    63.01    11.10    -1.03     0.38     6.25    25.77    10.64P    3.77R    1.47  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.19    77.99     3.44    55.12    10.26   -11.13     0.02     1.07     7.80     2.19P   12.52R    5.88  
Cambridge_Utd         5    8   +1       1.54    69.94     1.69    58.46    10.91    -8.83     0.15     2.70    14.61     5.00P    8.43R    3.72  
Morecambe             5    7   +1       0.19    53.18     1.06    62.39    10.81    -0.43     0.30     5.28    24.11     9.52P    3.94R    1.69  
Northampton           5    7   +0       0.06    51.42    -0.18    62.56    11.03    -1.36     0.37     5.80    24.96    10.10P    4.05R    1.66  
AFC_Wimbledon         5    7   -1       0.67    59.84    -0.16    57.75    10.72    -9.53     0.10     2.16    12.83     4.26P    9.15R    4.07  
Exeter                5    7   -2       0.34    55.59    -1.63    60.32    11.01    -7.13     0.19     3.89    18.63     6.98P    6.37R    2.86  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.17    24.24     0.03    73.28    11.42    18.56     3.36    27.32    61.53    38.09P    0.54R    0.19  
Accrington_Stanley    5    6   +0      -0.33    46.16     0.88    55.06    10.78   -11.62     0.05     1.40     8.64     2.71P   14.15R    7.00  
Carlisle              5    6   -2      -0.49    44.02    -1.34    55.44    11.17   -14.72     0.07     1.72     9.95     3.23P   14.50R    7.38  
Stevenage             5    5   -3      -1.86    27.74    -2.85    65.76    10.93     3.94     0.56     9.48    34.49    16.04P    2.09R    0.83  
Barnet                5    4   -4      -1.16    36.59    -1.14    49.12    11.04   -20.77     0.01     0.41     3.66     1.05P   31.58R   18.77  
York                  5    4   -4      -2.59    19.69    -3.69    54.48    10.30   -11.49     0.03     0.93     7.02     2.23P   13.95R    6.65  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.69    11.64    -6.29    67.07    11.73     5.33     1.17    13.04    39.78    20.95P    2.30R    1.07  
Yeovil                5    3   -4      -3.93     9.41    -4.15    60.86    11.59    -1.46     0.31     5.10    21.68     9.59P    6.47R    3.02  
Luton                 5    2   -3      -5.01     4.58    -3.27    58.58    10.83    -2.37     0.12     2.64    15.07     5.63P    8.20R    3.63  
Dag_&_Red             5    2   -6      -3.41    12.02    -3.65    53.92    10.79   -12.91     0.03     0.96     7.15     2.36P   16.91R    8.78  
Newport_County        5    1   -6      -4.22     6.54    -3.44    50.38    10.75   -16.52     0.01     0.48     4.04     1.20P   26.04R   14.57  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 August 2015, Braintree_Town 1 2 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      7   21  +12       7.06    98.60     5.06    87.44    10.34    31.82    27.33    80.06    40.58P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh         7   17   +8       4.70    89.94     3.80    80.19    10.63    23.33    10.30    56.11    20.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Woking            7   16   +9       3.72    85.49     4.79    79.29    10.51    23.97     8.50    53.42    18.90P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead         7   16   +4       4.81    90.53     1.63    73.49    10.49     9.92     2.89    30.81     8.02P    0.22R    0.02  
Cheltenham        7   15   +8       1.41    63.97     1.74    86.12    10.77    34.97    24.89    76.21    41.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham           7   15   +7       3.82    84.96     4.64    75.59    10.33    17.82     4.28    38.91    11.67P    0.09R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic    7   12   +2       0.61    55.88    -0.68    64.37    10.45    -0.04     0.49     9.35     2.11P    1.99R    0.24  
Chester           7   12   +0       4.10    87.55     2.73    59.18    10.33   -10.48     0.11     3.56     0.64P    5.96R    1.01  
Tranmere          7   11   +2      -2.18    27.37    -3.43    82.57    10.79    30.13    15.17    65.60    31.91P    0.02R    0.00  
Braintree_Town    7   10   -1      -0.20    47.90    -1.94    61.66    10.07    -3.34     0.21     5.18     1.12P    3.11R    0.40  
Grimsby           7    9   +3      -4.18    12.26    -2.60    75.31    10.31    22.38     4.12    38.65    14.21P    0.09R    0.01  
Lincoln_City      7    9   +0       1.40    66.32     3.33    63.62    10.55     1.08     0.34     8.33     1.55P    2.59R    0.40  
Aldershot         7    8   +0      -0.96    40.82     0.94    62.39    10.38     1.33     0.24     6.39     1.42P    3.16R    0.47  
Guiseley          7    8   -5       0.15    53.55    -2.52    43.77    10.27   -32.76     0.00     0.15     0.02P   49.13R   19.28  
Boreham_Wood      7    7   +0      -0.06    51.38     3.98    55.96    11.35    -6.78     0.12     2.82     0.65P   12.40R    2.95  
Macclesfield      7    7   -2      -2.92    20.89    -2.43    62.83    10.21     1.73     0.22     6.53     1.48P    2.67R    0.36  
Torquay           7    7   -5      -1.60    34.06    -3.37    66.83    10.57     4.58     0.65    13.29     3.41P    1.29R    0.16  
Barrow            7    7   -8       0.59    59.24    -2.08    43.88    10.88   -36.05     0.00     0.23     0.02P   49.27R   20.87  
Altrincham        7    6   -6      -0.69    43.98    -1.42    47.94     9.87   -24.59     0.00     0.19     0.02P   31.18R    9.02  
Bromley           7    5   -5      -1.21    39.04     0.84    47.24    11.12   -24.21     0.01     0.47     0.07P   35.86R   13.30  
Halifax           7    4   -5      -6.09     4.09    -5.69    56.14    10.50    -7.60     0.06     2.14     0.47P   10.28R    2.10  
Welling           7    4   -5      -3.16    17.56    -1.13    48.52     9.97   -18.86     0.00     0.26     0.05P   28.81R    8.18  
Southport         7    4   -7      -2.97    19.53    -2.81    43.45     9.64   -29.25     0.00     0.05     0.01P   49.14R   18.41  
Kidderminster     7    3   -6      -4.90     7.23    -3.37    54.61    10.33    -9.09     0.02     1.29     0.20P   12.65R    2.82