Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 1 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.54    91.91     5.06    86.96     8.53    57.58    82.78    94.22    97.68    99.02    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.30    94.20     4.20    50.73     9.12    -4.30     0.07     0.84     2.82     6.13    16.90     4.96R    0.69  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.37    80.70     2.78    49.21     9.26    -6.02     0.07     0.73     2.32     4.92    13.81     7.19R    1.23  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.67    84.79     3.27    55.00     9.45     3.33     0.31     2.74     7.40    14.15    31.43     2.12R    0.29  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.46    42.72    -1.90    65.74     9.29    18.97     3.08    19.57    37.52    53.55    75.42     0.09R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.41    43.49    -2.88    68.05     9.34    21.73     5.18    27.54    47.90    63.41    82.33     0.05R    0.00  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.69    60.33    -2.25    60.68     9.50     9.37     1.17     8.37    19.05    31.39    55.08     0.50R    0.05  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.85    61.70     3.48    51.15     9.30     0.54     0.11     1.14     3.43     7.11    18.95     4.69R    0.78  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.34    46.62     1.33    56.66     9.38     8.47     0.38     4.10    10.18    18.59    38.85     1.38R    0.17  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.78    25.96    -1.91    55.58     9.35     5.82     0.32     3.18     8.53    15.87    34.41     1.64R    0.18  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.56    44.93     0.48    39.36     9.63   -20.54     0.01     0.09     0.30     0.73     2.63    36.01R   12.85  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.52    44.66     0.38    37.35     8.55   -20.96     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.16     0.88    42.77R   14.85  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.10    12.62    -5.41    69.67     9.21    26.54     6.30    35.18    56.01    70.12    86.62     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.75    41.60    -1.93    39.32     9.51   -22.16     0.00     0.05     0.24     0.63     2.46    36.20R   12.78  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.14    55.31    -0.24    43.83     9.00   -12.71     0.01     0.14     0.53     1.35     4.94    18.30R    4.28  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.48    18.08    -1.03    52.64     9.54     3.15     0.18     1.80     4.94     9.92    24.24     3.91R    0.66  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.57    42.63     1.23    40.20     9.60   -17.15     0.01     0.08     0.31     0.82     3.04    32.37R   10.99  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.33    10.94    -1.85    44.89     9.07    -7.23     0.02     0.19     0.68     1.74     6.13    14.88R    3.44  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.43    31.21     0.13    38.82     9.02   -18.51     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.33     1.60    36.63R   12.75  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.70    16.26    -2.91    34.62     8.59   -25.91     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.07     0.49    56.27R   24.00  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, Brentford 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.83    97.36     3.48    70.44    10.43     6.92     5.35    12.04    41.29    18.35P    0.92R    0.07  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.21    64.52     1.18    78.63    11.34    22.15    22.00    36.81    70.70    47.31P    0.22R    0.02  
Ipswich          5   10   +3       2.39    77.82     1.88    73.47    11.22    14.02    10.39    20.58    53.35    28.81P    0.83R    0.08  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.61    69.20    -0.41    74.55    12.23    14.75    14.42    25.48    56.59    33.43P    1.08R    0.13  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.19    75.33     3.06    66.99    10.91     6.12     3.42     7.85    30.74    12.92P    2.80R    0.40  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.41    44.89     1.73    76.10    10.73    21.41    14.47    27.49    63.93    39.10P    0.32R    0.02  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.06    87.06     3.78    63.00    11.21    -0.58     1.81     4.45    20.00     7.44P    6.36R    1.08  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.34    79.19     3.62    62.05    10.60    -0.14     1.02     2.98    16.30     5.71P    6.29R    0.98  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.32    54.64    -1.23    70.92    11.36    10.27     7.32    14.93    44.34    22.98P    1.47R    0.18  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.90    62.77     2.02    58.51    10.68    -5.22     0.51     1.58    10.28     3.26P   11.67R    2.24  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.55    43.79    -0.05    60.19    11.72    -3.45     1.43     3.29    15.39     6.03P   11.08R    2.11  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.04    50.41    -1.30    69.24    11.03     8.17     4.89    11.26    38.55    18.03P    1.96R    0.29  
Reading          5    6   +1      -0.58    43.16     1.34    58.27    10.71    -4.10     0.56     1.61     9.73     3.29P   12.35R    2.58  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.53    32.35     0.52    56.19    11.15    -8.57     0.43     1.31     8.08     2.64P   17.96R    3.83  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.20    36.26    -0.20    56.28    10.42    -6.96     0.28     0.82     6.64     1.97P   15.75R    3.27  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.32    23.51    -1.76    59.11    11.11    -4.23     0.86     2.23    12.36     4.45P   11.84R    2.20  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.88    40.73    -0.76    55.85    11.09    -8.60     0.39     1.13     7.55     2.51P   18.46R    4.07  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.63    29.82    -1.19    64.72    11.47     3.64     2.62     6.30    25.51    10.64P    5.20R    0.88  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.12     9.32    -2.87    69.97    11.26    13.82     6.24    13.61    42.03    22.00P    1.68R    0.24  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -2.04    26.76    -2.74    55.73    12.00   -11.46     0.62     1.64     9.03     3.18P   21.21R    5.88  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.12     8.52    -2.46    59.17    10.94    -1.70     0.77     2.06    11.87     4.40P   11.08R    2.11  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.31    21.95    -0.71    49.77    10.55   -16.86     0.06     0.18     2.10     0.50P   36.36R   11.39  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.56    19.28    -2.21    52.71    10.51   -12.73     0.12     0.37     3.53     1.03P   25.90R    6.77  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.87     8.35    -4.74    38.80     9.98   -36.66     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   77.23R   49.19  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 August 2015, Coventry 2 2 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Walsall           5   13   +8       5.26    96.07     6.72    75.97    10.81    18.31    11.10    22.32    58.89    31.18P    0.51R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.31    91.40     2.74    80.86    10.82    22.97    22.06    37.83    75.00    48.25P    0.15R    0.01  
Burton_Albion     5   12   +3       5.42    95.45     3.36    64.87    11.54    -1.88     2.25     5.19    22.10     8.59P    7.15R    0.84  
Gillingham        5   11   +7       4.31    91.64     7.23    74.05    11.36    17.42     9.25    18.94    52.42    26.57P    1.11R    0.07  
Coventry          5   10   +6       2.44    78.96     4.89    70.32    11.40    12.02     5.35    11.59    39.18    17.89P    2.49R    0.16  
Rochdale          5   10   +6       2.48    78.51     5.03    72.74    11.18    15.94     7.53    15.59    47.55    22.99P    1.48R    0.10  
Chesterfield      5   10   +3       2.75    81.26     2.37    75.17    11.01    16.60    10.04    20.43    56.04    29.68P    0.69R    0.05  
Swindon           5    8   +2      -0.68    41.11    -0.77    76.01    11.24    20.29    12.27    23.57    59.35    34.18P    0.76R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town    5    7   +2      -0.04    50.31     1.69    59.50    10.86    -3.35     0.55     1.49    10.35     3.30P   13.91R    1.91  
Oldham            5    7   +1       0.38    55.87     1.27    59.07    10.63    -4.63     0.46     1.22     9.34     2.91P   14.26R    1.92  
Wigan             5    7   +0      -1.74    28.19    -2.78    75.78    11.30    18.39    12.21    23.04    58.13    34.63P    0.73R    0.05  
Barnsley          5    7   -3       0.23    54.04    -2.80    66.26    11.01     1.62     2.16     5.40    25.18    10.12P    5.06R    0.43  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.48    44.46     2.63    61.08    10.85     0.38     0.75     2.11    13.21     4.49P   11.06R    1.35  
Doncaster         5    6   -1      -1.31    33.07    -1.76    62.42    10.79    -0.33     0.97     2.61    15.42     5.55P    8.83R    0.99  
Scunthorpe        5    5   -2      -1.46    32.94    -1.37    55.67    11.06   -11.23     0.26     0.77     5.96     1.80P   24.10R    4.48  
Bradford          5    5   -3      -1.46    32.98    -2.41    59.70    10.71    -4.60     0.48     1.46    10.23     3.39P   13.47R    1.77  
Bury              5    4   -1      -2.10    26.41     0.27    50.25    11.55   -17.87     0.13     0.43     3.00     0.94P   42.55R   12.20  
Peterborough      5    4   -4      -3.01    17.02    -4.23    61.94    11.06    -1.31     0.92     2.56    15.00     5.63P   10.35R    1.34  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.75    19.63    -5.87    59.18    11.63    -7.42     0.73     2.00    11.11     4.11P   16.83R    2.93  
Southend          5    3   -3      -2.18    23.56    -0.72    50.71    10.96   -14.44     0.09     0.25     2.40     0.73P   39.86R   10.22  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.34    13.20    -4.16    48.54    10.74   -22.53     0.05     0.15     1.48     0.35P   48.81R   14.18  
Shrewsbury        5    2   -3      -4.73     5.57    -2.92    55.57    11.27    -6.36     0.30     0.82     6.28     2.04P   24.42R    4.90  
Crewe             5    2   -4      -3.10    14.23    -1.15    44.46    10.44   -25.66     0.02     0.04     0.54     0.15P   63.25R   24.34  
Blackpool         5    1   -9      -4.76     4.90    -7.26    48.70    11.39   -22.33     0.06     0.17     1.83     0.52P   48.14R   15.68  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         5   15  +10       4.19    93.45     3.67    99.26    10.93    55.41    79.54    95.27    99.30    96.83P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth              5   12   +7       3.55    87.05     4.61    75.93    10.64    18.47     3.98    34.46    70.91    44.30P    0.11R    0.04  
Wycombe               5   11   +6       2.95    83.80     4.22    77.14    10.78    20.77     5.35    39.05    74.44    49.01P    0.09R    0.02  
Portsmouth            5   11   +5       4.14    91.48     4.92    72.39    11.10    12.68     2.55    23.82    58.00    31.84P    0.44R    0.13  
Oxford_Utd            5    9   +4       1.82    71.70     3.47    68.89    10.82     9.54     1.19    14.57    45.80    22.23P    1.09R    0.39  
Hartlepool            5    9   +1       2.71    81.01     1.80    54.95    10.41   -14.53     0.07     1.14     7.81     2.31P   13.73R    6.42  
Bristol_Rovers        5    9   +1       2.98    84.48     2.18    63.16    11.09    -0.82     0.38     6.47    26.17    11.09P    3.63R    1.52  
Mansfield             5    8   +2       2.21    77.88     3.47    54.97    10.33   -11.31     0.05     1.07     7.80     2.18P   13.27R    6.36  
Cambridge_Utd         5    8   +1       1.51    69.62     1.62    58.75    10.84    -8.30     0.17     2.83    15.18     5.20P    7.89R    3.41  
Morecambe             5    7   +1       0.14    52.58     0.98    62.43    10.86    -0.35     0.32     5.34    24.19     9.60P    4.10R    1.70  
Northampton           5    7   +0       0.05    51.66    -0.17    62.56    10.96    -1.38     0.39     5.91    24.52    10.06P    3.87R    1.60  
AFC_Wimbledon         5    7   -1       0.68    59.79    -0.15    57.77    10.78    -9.56     0.12     2.19    13.08     4.36P    9.29R    4.22  
Exeter                5    7   -2       0.36    55.97    -1.61    60.41    10.94    -6.98     0.20     3.96    19.05     7.06P    6.23R    2.80  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.15    24.46     0.06    73.13    11.53    18.28     3.25    27.22    61.29    38.21P    0.61R    0.23  
Accrington_Stanley    5    6   +0      -0.31    46.57     0.91    55.04    10.68   -11.66     0.05     1.36     8.64     2.80P   13.98R    6.92  
Carlisle              5    6   -2      -0.49    44.28    -1.34    55.58    11.27   -14.55     0.10     1.86    10.28     3.45P   14.65R    7.45  
Stevenage             5    5   -3      -1.91    27.28    -2.92    65.81    11.01     4.04     0.65     9.69    35.06    16.40P    2.21R    0.83  
Barnet                5    4   -4      -1.18    36.29    -1.20    49.44    11.05   -20.19     0.01     0.53     3.89     1.17P   30.47R   18.23  
York                  5    4   -4      -2.62    19.50    -3.73    54.65    10.39   -11.29     0.04     1.00     7.34     2.35P   13.85R    6.66  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.63    12.08    -6.21    66.91    11.64     5.02     1.10    12.75    39.17    20.45P    2.39R    1.03  
Yeovil                5    3   -4      -3.96     9.40    -4.18    61.04    11.60    -1.22     0.36     5.35    22.11     9.71P    6.31R    2.89  
Luton                 5    2   -3      -5.01     4.70    -3.27    58.33    10.86    -2.69     0.12     2.66    14.62     5.76P    8.46R    3.74  
Dag_&_Red             5    2   -6      -3.45    11.93    -3.71    53.85    10.86   -12.89     0.02     1.04     7.39     2.43P   17.25R    8.97  
Newport_County        5    1   -6      -4.21     6.62    -3.42    50.42    10.70   -16.48     0.01     0.44     3.95     1.21P   26.10R   14.44  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 August 2015, Braintree_Town 1 2 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      7   21  +12       7.05    98.57     5.05    87.49    10.40    31.99    27.60    79.99    40.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh         7   17   +8       4.62    89.81     3.69    80.44    10.70    23.79    10.78    56.99    21.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Woking            7   16   +9       3.69    85.13     4.73    79.41    10.51    24.18     8.68    53.83    18.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Gateshead         7   16   +4       4.73    90.27     1.50    73.57    10.47    10.05     2.96    30.81     8.05P    0.16R    0.01  
Cheltenham        7   15   +8       1.41    64.19     1.76    86.34    10.59    35.27    24.86    77.17    41.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham           7   15   +7       3.76    84.56     4.58    75.85    10.40    18.14     4.54    39.63    11.85P    0.10R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic    7   12   +2       0.66    56.66    -0.62    64.23    10.39    -0.30     0.42     8.91     1.87P    1.94R    0.28  
Chester           7   12   +0       3.99    87.07     2.56    59.73    10.24    -9.67     0.14     3.87     0.63P    5.02R    0.76  
Tranmere          7   11   +2      -2.12    27.78    -3.34    82.17    10.77    29.54    14.02    64.02    30.52P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town    7   10   -1      -0.14    48.85    -1.86    61.33    10.00    -3.90     0.14     4.60     0.90P    3.23R    0.43  
Grimsby           7    9   +3      -4.20    12.07    -2.61    75.35    10.34    22.50     4.19    38.77    14.40P    0.12R    0.01  
Lincoln_City      7    9   +0       1.38    65.81     3.31    63.88    10.63     1.47     0.35     8.52     1.71P    2.67R    0.39  
Aldershot         7    8   +0      -0.94    41.03     0.96    62.46    10.37     1.39     0.23     6.31     1.42P    2.93R    0.42  
Guiseley          7    8   -5       0.26    54.80    -2.33    43.28    10.26   -33.76     0.00     0.12     0.02P   50.73R   20.77  
Boreham_Wood      7    7   +0       0.06    52.87     4.15    55.49    11.17    -7.44     0.08     2.37     0.44P   13.06R    3.03  
Macclesfield      7    7   -2      -2.91    20.86    -2.39    62.88    10.20     1.78     0.21     6.50     1.53P    2.51R    0.35  
Torquay           7    7   -5      -1.58    34.62    -3.36    66.86    10.53     4.63     0.74    13.11     3.22P    1.31R    0.16  
Barrow            7    7   -8       0.58    59.20    -2.11    43.96    10.79   -35.94     0.00     0.20     0.04P   48.66R   20.16  
Altrincham        7    6   -6      -0.72    43.65    -1.47    47.90     9.83   -24.60     0.00     0.20     0.02P   31.29R    8.87  
Bromley           7    5   -5      -1.29    38.17     0.79    47.27    11.29   -24.18     0.01     0.51     0.10P   35.99R   13.50  
Halifax           7    4   -5      -6.11     4.03    -5.74    56.29    10.49    -7.38     0.04     2.06     0.42P    9.70R    1.91  
Welling           7    4   -5      -3.15    17.45    -1.10    48.33     9.95   -19.18     0.00     0.25     0.05P   29.22R    8.26  
Southport         7    4   -7      -2.97    19.43    -2.85    43.65     9.67   -28.93     0.00     0.05     0.00P   48.08R   17.88  
Kidderminster     7    3   -6      -4.84     7.48    -3.30    54.39    10.34    -9.45     0.01     1.23     0.24P   13.18R    2.80