Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 20 March 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 March 2015, Swansea 0 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          28   64  +35       6.21    80.78     4.29    85.13     3.86    46.49    90.10    98.15    99.67    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         29   58  +31      -2.71    34.52    -3.41    77.42     3.56    42.94     7.55    69.75    91.28    97.80    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   57  +26       2.40    61.78     2.73    74.05     3.82    33.33     1.84    21.51    64.39    86.72    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   56  +24       0.76    53.25     0.39    70.94     3.91    27.88     0.40     7.43    27.14    61.33    97.02     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        29   54  +13       1.52    57.43    -6.48    69.69     3.80    18.28     0.10     2.89    15.29    42.07    94.12     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   50  +19       4.63    72.39    11.00    64.76     3.85    22.35     0.00     0.18     1.41     7.63    62.18     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   50   +4       6.24    78.76    -1.20    64.10     3.93     6.57     0.00     0.08     0.80     4.49    46.42     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            29   42   -2       5.47    76.97     3.06    53.35     3.84    -3.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          29   40   -5       2.63    64.03    -0.65    51.70     3.90    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         29   39   +2       1.87    60.42     6.51    52.10     3.91     2.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -14       2.80    65.67    -0.70    45.94     3.91   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   33   -6       0.85    55.41     5.65    42.06     3.61   -11.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.00  
West_Brom        29   33   -9      -1.87    40.96    -1.43    42.11     3.57   -14.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76R    0.01  
Everton          29   31   -5     -11.29     7.08    -8.12    45.53     3.99    -1.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Hull             29   28  -11      -3.44    32.69     1.58    36.23     3.56   -16.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.34R    1.37  
Aston_Villa      29   28  -19      -1.47    43.08    -3.60    37.04     3.54   -24.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.47R    1.61  
Sunderland       29   26  -20      -4.19    29.10    -5.06    34.86     3.56   -25.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.83R    5.20  
Burnley          29   25  -21      -3.00    34.94    -1.40    33.80     3.68   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.76R    9.83  
QPR              29   22  -22      -5.08    24.46    -0.81    29.60     3.49   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.18R   48.37  
Leicester        28   19  -20      -8.82    10.23    -2.35    30.54     4.10   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.72R   33.61  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 20 March 2015, Wolverhampton 2 0 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Watford         38   72  +33       5.06    70.37     9.48    85.52     3.75    36.86    37.69    62.99    99.03    72.56P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   38   72  +32       6.77    76.66    12.83    84.66     3.68    34.39    27.70    51.11    98.38    63.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     38   70  +39       4.77    69.11    18.63    83.51     3.76    42.89    22.01    46.16    96.99    58.87P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         38   67  +31      -1.73    42.37     5.51    81.60     3.73    36.52     8.60    24.15    92.52    46.38P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           39   67  +26      -0.01    49.74     5.37    80.38     3.41    31.94     3.33    12.02    87.60    33.08P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       38   65  +12      10.73    87.07     9.10    76.91     3.75    13.29     0.35     1.80    48.58     8.84P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   39   65  +11       4.53    68.07     0.72    75.71     3.48    12.68     0.08     0.65    35.02     7.81P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         38   64  +15       6.40    75.31     6.99    75.83     3.71    16.28     0.24     1.12    39.83     8.12P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   57  +10       0.30    51.56     3.42    67.71     3.78     9.44     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       38   54   +2       0.35    51.71     0.04    66.07     3.82     3.63     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton        38   51   -3       3.77    66.57     4.01    61.77     3.75    -3.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    38   51   -4       2.41    61.07     1.32    61.76     3.71    -4.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   50   -5       1.68    58.02    -0.34    59.82     3.59    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         38   48   -4      -3.55    35.65    -3.08    60.22     3.70    -2.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47  -10       1.48    57.13    -1.69    57.52     3.87   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Bolton          38   44  -11      -4.85    30.23    -5.71    54.38     3.67   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66R    0.00  
Huddersfield    38   44  -17       0.67    54.07    -2.18    53.30     3.69   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.50R    0.00  
Reading         37   44  -18      -3.23    36.59   -12.32    56.27     3.99   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Brighton        38   42   -4     -12.05     9.18    -7.13    52.58     3.69    -4.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.04R    0.00  
Rotherham       38   40  -19       0.99    55.53     2.02    48.01     3.55   -23.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.45R    0.00  
Fulham          38   40  -20      -7.92    20.41   -12.26    50.78     3.77   -20.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.37R    0.00  
Wigan           38   34  -17     -15.34     4.19   -13.21    44.00     3.67   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.79R    0.08  
Millwall        38   32  -31      -4.17    31.75    -6.65    38.84     3.34   -37.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.76R    1.49  
Blackpool       38   22  -48      -9.65    11.16   -14.87    28.97     3.36   -54.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.43  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2015, Bristol_City 3 0 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City     38   83  +41      12.91    92.04    13.73    96.86     3.78    45.27    87.56    99.11   100.00    99.39P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          36   72  +31       6.66    76.88     7.52    89.69     4.24    36.84    11.28    75.16   100.00    83.85P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          37   70  +26       5.46    72.00     5.48    84.40     4.04    29.00     0.99    17.48    99.99    42.37P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          37   66  +33       0.94    53.70    11.29    82.16     4.03    38.75     0.17     8.24    99.94    38.72P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        36   55   +7       0.83    53.69    -0.07    71.21     4.26    10.63     0.00     0.00    71.43    14.20P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         37   54   +1      -0.03    49.85    -3.74    66.11     4.07     0.65     0.00     0.00    23.69     3.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     37   53   -1      -1.77    42.51    -6.84    67.12     4.06     1.62     0.00     0.00    30.26     5.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield     36   51   +6       0.57    52.75     4.71    65.25     4.31     6.81     0.00     0.00    21.28     3.53P    0.04R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   37   51   -4       7.78    80.58     6.33    61.50     3.88    -6.44     0.00     0.00     2.65     0.29P    0.25R    0.00  
Rochdale         35   50  +14      -0.65    47.47    10.43    65.33     4.58    14.20     0.00     0.00    23.40     3.88P    0.05R    0.00  
Bradford         35   50   +4       2.33    60.50     4.20    64.96     4.46     3.93     0.00     0.00    18.60     2.73P    0.04R    0.00  
Doncaster        37   50   -2      -1.76    42.77    -3.71    62.25     4.03    -2.07     0.00     0.00     5.13     0.86P    0.25R    0.00  
Port_Vale        37   48   -5       1.70    57.85     2.00    58.87     3.94    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.08P    2.68R    0.00  
Gillingham       37   47   -4       1.12    55.38     3.87    58.71     4.04    -5.06     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.13P    3.48R    0.01  
Walsall          37   46   -5      -2.73    38.73    -3.01    58.06     3.91    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.09P    4.34R    0.01  
Oldham           36   46  -11       2.97    63.53    -1.45    57.98     4.21   -13.53     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.08P    6.36R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       35   43   -6      -0.85    46.91     0.76    56.85     4.54    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.09P   10.87R    0.09  
Coventry         37   43   -9      -5.03    29.63    -4.65    55.45     4.04    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   16.29R    0.09  
Notts_County     36   42  -10      -3.11    37.33    -3.80    54.56     4.20   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   22.31R    0.32  
Crewe            37   42  -32       6.96    79.44    -6.67    50.87     3.78   -37.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.61R    2.08  
Crawley_Town     37   40  -22      -0.93    46.68    -6.99    51.06     3.99   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.46R    2.05  
Leyton_Orient    36   39   -5     -14.82     5.08   -11.45    53.76     4.33    -3.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   26.34R    0.47  
Colchester       37   37  -17      -5.43    27.80    -4.06    47.05     3.93   -20.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.92R   10.21  
Yeovil           38   33  -30      -7.77    19.61   -13.88    41.17     3.54   -34.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   84.65  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 March 2015, Burton_Albion 2 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Burton_Albion        37   73  +21      13.84    93.77     8.70    86.87     4.01    23.36    55.37    95.39   100.00    96.62P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   68  +26       2.66    61.07     4.97    84.28     3.92    31.57    29.98    88.80    99.98    92.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   68  +20      11.32    89.34    11.05    81.75     3.97    22.12    12.06    70.67    99.81    77.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   64  +12       6.34    75.62     1.67    77.85     4.02    14.25     1.85    25.16    96.75    44.01P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             37   62   +9       4.50    69.15    -1.15    76.75     3.95    12.47     0.70    16.25    94.09    38.34P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                37   58   +9       4.45    68.37     4.37    70.75     3.99     9.74     0.03     1.35    54.97    13.28P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            37   57   +7      -0.04    49.73    -2.46    71.53     4.04    10.28     0.02     1.62    63.79    18.17P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       37   57   +1       9.36    84.93     5.06    68.57     3.92     0.03     0.00     0.24    29.09     4.88P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             37   56  +14       2.67    61.88     9.46    69.26     3.91    15.44     0.00     0.47    44.05    10.38P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          37   53   +8       1.13    55.11     6.12    64.89     3.94     7.35     0.00     0.04    10.45     2.19P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               37   51   -2       0.37    52.01    -1.95    62.99     3.92    -2.49     0.00     0.01     3.57     0.66P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           37   49   +3      -4.02    33.19    -0.68    61.13     3.98     2.75     0.00     0.00     1.88     0.42P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   49   -1       1.85    58.39     4.14    60.64     3.97    -1.99     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            37   48   -3       0.49    52.73     1.06    58.79     3.90    -5.07     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P    0.05R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   46   -6      -1.00    46.17    -0.77    56.78     3.91    -8.37     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.31R    0.02  
Mansfield            37   45  -13       2.40    61.22    -2.14    55.08     3.80   -15.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.68R    0.25  
Accrington_Stanley   37   45  -16       1.89    58.94    -4.41    56.91     4.04   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.79R    0.10  
Cambridge_Utd        37   43   +0      -2.81    38.63     7.12    54.27     3.98    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.13R    0.31  
Oxford_Utd           37   43   -5      -6.29    24.70    -3.72    54.69     3.91    -5.75     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    1.79R    0.23  
Carlisle             37   40  -17      -5.83    26.80    -9.51    51.66     4.01   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.41R    2.82  
York                 37   37   -8     -10.30    12.05    -4.35    49.04     3.87    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.85R    7.98  
Tranmere             37   37  -11     -13.18     7.51   -10.61    48.68     3.96   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.93R    8.36  
Cheltenham           37   37  -19      -5.79    25.71    -7.88    47.02     3.82   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.72R   17.69  
Hartlepool           37   33  -29      -6.90    21.54   -14.07    43.63     3.85   -31.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.33R   62.23  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 20 March 2015, Bristol_Rovers 3 1 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Bristol_Rovers   40   77  +23       4.71    68.55    -2.38    88.36     3.08    27.67    39.17    99.86    60.06P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           39   75  +36       5.26    71.16    10.51    88.57     3.42    42.15    52.03    99.85    66.96P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     39   71  +15      12.11    90.04     6.73    81.18     3.41    15.92     1.39    81.57    14.45P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   69  +27       2.27    59.48     5.24    83.54     3.73    32.11     6.59    94.24    33.43P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     39   69  +21       4.71    68.84     4.27    80.19     3.57    23.34     0.76    75.17    16.18P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        38   64  +20       5.88    72.67    10.87    75.58     3.80    20.92     0.04    26.21     4.38P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        37   60  +12       1.68    57.04     0.49    72.46     4.03    12.20     0.00     8.45     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           38   59  +19       1.45    56.32    10.66    71.55     3.84    21.30     0.00     5.91     1.14P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          37   59  +13       0.61    52.37     1.26    72.47     4.08    14.58     0.01     8.55     1.70P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   37   53  +10       0.93    54.12     8.37    64.68     4.04     8.95     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Chester          39   53   -9       8.47    82.26     4.81    61.16     3.40   -11.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    39   52   -3      -3.83    34.42    -6.78    61.08     3.46    -3.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     38   52   -7       2.82    62.25    -1.89    61.82     3.76    -8.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          36   50   -2      -0.66    47.49    -4.29    64.75     4.21    -0.31     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   38   49   +3      -4.62    31.19     0.36    61.91     3.73     5.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       39   49  -16       6.84    77.15     2.02    57.05     3.40   -18.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Torquay          37   47   +2     -10.92    12.18    -8.92    61.87     4.02     5.85     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        40   45  -11      -9.37    16.23   -10.46    52.33     3.11   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Southport        38   41  -20       0.19    51.86    -2.22    50.37     3.61   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.00R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town    38   41  -26      -0.13    49.95    -7.42    49.52     3.55   -30.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.31R    0.00  
Welling          38   37  -16      -6.93    22.31    -3.72    46.02     3.63   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.74R    0.09  
Dartford         37   32  -26      -5.00    28.95    -4.38    41.88     3.82   -29.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.36R    3.49  
Nuneaton         38   32  -34      -5.18    27.64   -11.99    39.50     3.42   -39.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.56R    9.49  
AFC_Telford      39   26  -31     -10.39    12.38    -1.12    32.92     3.36   -35.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.82R   86.92