Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 19 March 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 March 2015, Swansea 0 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          28   64  +35       6.14    80.72     4.13    85.16     3.86    46.55    90.40    98.26    99.74    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         29   58  +31      -2.59    35.00    -3.23    77.37     3.57    42.84     7.37    69.26    91.07    97.67    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   57  +26       2.45    62.05     2.79    74.02     3.84    33.29     1.69    21.75    64.26    86.45    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   56  +24       0.74    53.21     0.38    70.93     3.90    27.88     0.44     7.52    27.32    61.72    96.88     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        29   54  +13       1.61    57.71    -6.29    69.67     3.79    18.28     0.10     2.91    15.27    41.95    93.98     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   50  +19       4.70    72.63    11.14    64.75     3.85    22.34     0.00     0.18     1.48     7.65    62.22     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   50   +4       6.11    78.53    -1.35    64.11     3.94     6.61     0.00     0.12     0.86     4.61    46.63     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            29   42   -2       5.48    76.85     3.06    53.32     3.82    -3.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          29   40   -5       2.59    63.71    -0.67    51.70     3.91    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         29   39   +2       1.92    60.43     6.48    52.19     3.93     2.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -14       2.78    65.19    -0.69    45.94     3.93   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   33   -6       0.83    55.49     5.65    42.08     3.59   -11.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63R    0.00  
West_Brom        29   33   -9      -2.05    40.13    -1.70    42.16     3.58   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77R    0.02  
Everton          29   31   -5     -11.37     6.97    -8.26    45.52     3.99    -1.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Hull             29   28  -11      -3.32    32.93     1.79    36.17     3.57   -16.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.67R    1.31  
Aston_Villa      29   28  -19      -1.40    43.52    -3.45    37.01     3.54   -24.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.75R    1.61  
Sunderland       29   26  -20      -4.23    28.75    -5.19    34.88     3.56   -25.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.51R    5.30  
Burnley          29   25  -21      -3.08    34.51    -1.54    33.83     3.68   -26.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.24R    9.41  
QPR              29   22  -22      -4.99    25.06    -0.76    29.61     3.50   -30.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.09R   48.16  
Leicester        28   19  -20      -8.78    10.46    -2.30    30.47     4.08   -23.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.07R   34.18  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 March 2015, Fulham 0 3 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Watford         38   72  +33       4.95    69.94     9.28    85.52     3.76    36.88    36.43    60.36    99.09    70.69P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   38   72  +32       6.86    77.11    12.97    84.64     3.67    34.41    26.03    48.61    98.64    61.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     38   70  +39       4.66    68.80    18.52    83.52     3.76    42.89    20.61    43.32    97.28    56.88P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         38   67  +31      -1.75    42.06     5.47    81.58     3.74    36.50     7.89    22.18    93.31    45.06P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           38   67  +28       0.72    52.87     6.42    81.82     3.68    34.08     8.44    22.64    93.10    43.15P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       38   65  +12      10.76    87.04     9.17    76.85     3.77    13.21     0.34     1.59    51.12     8.98P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         38   64  +15       6.65    76.21     7.34    75.84     3.75    16.27     0.23     1.05    42.62     8.39P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   38   62   +9       3.86    65.90     0.20    73.96     3.74    10.48     0.03     0.25    22.27     4.53P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   57  +10       0.23    51.24     3.32    67.78     3.75     9.54     0.00     0.00     2.18     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       38   54   +2       0.35    51.79    -0.01    66.06     3.80     3.62     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton        38   51   -3       3.58    65.84     3.73    61.87     3.73    -3.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    38   51   -4       2.38    60.85     1.27    61.80     3.70    -4.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   50   -5       1.63    57.46    -0.49    59.84     3.57    -6.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         38   48   -4      -3.48    35.83    -2.99    60.18     3.69    -2.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47  -10       1.49    57.32    -1.69    57.50     3.88   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Bolton          38   44  -11      -4.84    30.57    -5.73    54.39     3.65   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63R    0.00  
Huddersfield    38   44  -17       0.50    52.99    -2.44    53.33     3.70   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    0.00  
Reading         37   44  -18      -3.39    35.91   -12.55    56.28     4.01   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35R    0.00  
Brighton        38   42   -4     -12.17     8.87    -7.24    52.55     3.68    -4.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.15R    0.00  
Rotherham       38   40  -19       0.86    54.92     1.81    48.00     3.53   -23.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.68R    0.00  
Fulham          38   40  -20      -7.69    20.95   -11.93    50.77     3.76   -20.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.48R    0.00  
Wigan           38   34  -17     -15.26     4.22   -13.11    44.01     3.67   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.40R    0.05  
Millwall        38   32  -31      -4.14    31.71    -6.61    38.84     3.31   -37.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.81R    1.37  
Blackpool       38   22  -48      -9.56    11.63   -14.72    28.91     3.35   -54.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.58  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2015, Bristol_City 3 0 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City     38   83  +41      12.78    91.98    13.47    96.82     3.80    45.24    86.99    99.00   100.00    99.34P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          36   72  +31       6.61    76.94     7.48    89.76     4.24    36.90    11.81    75.63   100.00    84.03P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          37   70  +26       5.63    72.69     5.76    84.41     4.03    29.02     1.00    17.16   100.00    42.29P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          37   66  +33       0.72    52.50    10.96    82.24     4.01    38.88     0.20     8.21    99.96    38.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        36   55   +7       0.70    53.10    -0.31    71.28     4.25    10.74     0.00     0.00    72.10    14.68P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         37   54   +1      -0.15    49.91    -3.90    66.16     4.06     0.70     0.00     0.00    23.70     4.15P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     37   53   -1      -1.81    42.64    -6.92    67.12     4.05     1.62     0.00     0.00    30.22     5.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield     36   51   +6       0.56    52.57     4.65    65.27     4.29     6.82     0.00     0.00    21.02     3.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   37   51   -4       7.75    80.54     6.28    61.51     3.90    -6.41     0.00     0.00     2.69     0.27P    0.29R    0.00  
Rochdale         35   50  +14      -0.56    47.75    10.61    65.35     4.61    14.21     0.00     0.00    23.26     3.76P    0.05R    0.00  
Bradford         35   50   +4       2.18    60.20     3.96    64.95     4.46     3.96     0.00     0.00    18.49     2.84P    0.05R    0.00  
Doncaster        37   50   -2      -1.74    43.00    -3.62    62.25     4.02    -2.09     0.00     0.00     5.10     0.89P    0.23R    0.00  
Port_Vale        37   48   -5       1.80    58.40     2.15    58.89     3.97    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.09P    2.61R    0.00  
Gillingham       37   47   -4       1.36    56.47     4.30    58.62     4.03    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.10P    3.63R    0.00  
Walsall          37   46   -5      -2.84    37.88    -3.12    58.05     3.89    -5.30     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    4.30R    0.01  
Oldham           36   46  -11       2.98    63.77    -1.46    57.94     4.19   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.08P    6.30R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       35   43   -6      -0.65    47.81     1.03    56.80     4.52    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.09P   10.85R    0.06  
Coventry         37   43   -9      -5.22    28.92    -4.90    55.47     4.05    -8.92     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   16.18R    0.10  
Notts_County     36   42  -10      -3.07    37.28    -3.73    54.57     4.21   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   22.11R    0.33  
Crewe            37   42  -32       6.92    79.61    -6.71    50.86     3.78   -37.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.73R    1.97  
Crawley_Town     37   40  -22      -0.93    46.74    -6.99    51.15     4.01   -23.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.77R    1.81  
Leyton_Orient    36   39   -5     -14.55     5.60   -11.09    53.68     4.33    -3.64     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   27.13R    0.42  
Colchester       37   37  -17      -5.60    26.90    -4.30    47.05     3.93   -20.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.00R   10.13  
Yeovil           38   33  -30      -7.58    20.31   -13.59    41.06     3.51   -34.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.75R   85.15  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 March 2015, Burton_Albion 2 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Burton_Albion        37   73  +21      13.89    93.84     8.76    86.88     3.99    23.36    56.13    95.46   100.00    96.62P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   68  +26       2.79    61.67     5.23    84.17     3.92    31.42    29.11    88.27    99.98    92.53P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              37   68  +20      11.37    89.40    11.12    81.75     3.99    22.11    12.31    70.97    99.81    77.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 37   64  +12       6.29    75.37     1.57    77.85     4.02    14.27     1.78    25.48    96.64    44.48P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             37   62   +9       4.57    69.16    -1.01    76.70     3.97    12.38     0.65    15.98    93.91    38.08P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                37   58   +9       4.37    68.16     4.27    70.76     4.00     9.76     0.01     1.42    55.23    13.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            37   57   +7      -0.03    49.88    -2.43    71.49     4.02    10.23     0.01     1.54    63.16    17.87P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       37   57   +1       9.36    84.75     5.09    68.59     3.93     0.07     0.00     0.30    29.74     4.94P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             37   56  +14       2.44    61.10     9.20    69.28     3.94    15.47     0.01     0.57    44.08    10.64P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          37   53   +8       1.10    54.90     6.08    64.87     3.93     7.36     0.00     0.03    10.58     2.28P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               37   51   -2       0.42    52.02    -1.87    62.98     3.93    -2.51     0.00     0.00     3.54     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           37   49   +3      -3.94    33.63    -0.60    61.14     3.98     2.78     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.40P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   49   -1       1.71    57.80     3.92    60.66     3.94    -1.96     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            37   48   -3       0.36    52.09     0.92    58.80     3.89    -5.04     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   46   -6      -1.03    46.23    -0.83    56.84     3.91    -8.28     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.32R    0.02  
Mansfield            37   45  -13       2.49    61.83    -2.02    55.07     3.80   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.66R    0.20  
Accrington_Stanley   37   45  -16       2.00    59.52    -4.23    56.88     4.02   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    0.80R    0.10  
Cambridge_Utd        37   43   +0      -2.58    40.03     7.45    54.23     3.96    -1.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     2.21R    0.41  
Oxford_Utd           37   43   -5      -6.18    24.81    -3.60    54.70     3.89    -5.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.83R    0.21  
Carlisle             37   40  -17      -5.90    26.54    -9.61    51.66     3.99   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.58R    2.81  
York                 37   37   -8     -10.31    12.10    -4.40    49.05     3.88    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.20R    8.22  
Tranmere             37   37  -11     -13.40     7.32   -10.95    48.72     3.93   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.57R    8.09  
Cheltenham           37   37  -19      -5.98    25.34    -8.06    47.07     3.85   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.71R   17.79  
Hartlepool           37   33  -29      -6.84    21.86   -13.99    43.64     3.87   -31.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.07R   62.15  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 March 2015, AFC_Telford 0 1 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           39   75  +36       5.34    71.11    10.65    88.61     3.42    42.19    59.28    99.87    71.91P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   39   74  +21       4.30    67.49    -2.53    87.23     3.35    26.36    30.15    99.49    53.42P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     39   71  +15      12.07    89.86     6.69    81.22     3.41    15.97     1.76    82.04    14.84P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   69  +27       2.37    59.77     5.37    83.52     3.74    32.08     7.73    94.09    34.39P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     39   69  +21       4.97    69.91     4.62    80.09     3.56    23.19     0.99    74.81    16.29P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        38   64  +20       5.76    71.92    10.64    75.59     3.82    20.95     0.06    26.22     4.51P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        37   60  +12       1.66    57.20     0.50    72.46     3.99    12.19     0.01     8.26     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           38   59  +19       1.45    56.20    10.57    71.58     3.84    21.31     0.00     6.16     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          37   59  +13       0.58    52.39     1.26    72.46     4.05    14.58     0.01     8.81     1.88P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   37   53  +10       0.91    54.29     8.26    64.67     4.03     8.96     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Chester          39   53   -9       8.51    82.62     4.97    61.19     3.41   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    39   52   -3      -3.82    34.49    -6.79    61.04     3.46    -3.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     38   52   -7       2.93    62.69    -1.80    61.83     3.79    -8.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          36   50   -2      -0.67    47.36    -4.36    64.74     4.21    -0.32     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   38   49   +3      -4.91    29.91    -0.06    61.96     3.71     6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       39   49  -16       6.64    76.26     1.76    57.07     3.40   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Torquay          37   47   +2     -10.67    13.09    -8.58    61.78     4.02     5.70     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        39   45   -9      -8.72    17.90    -9.62    53.17     3.33   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Southport        38   41  -20       0.10    51.51    -2.31    50.40     3.60   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.92R    0.01  
Alfreton_Town    38   41  -26      -0.10    50.26    -7.47    49.52     3.54   -30.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.20R    0.00  
Welling          38   37  -16      -6.94    22.26    -3.77    46.01     3.63   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.08R    0.09  
Dartford         37   32  -26      -5.00    28.33    -4.45    41.86     3.83   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.32R    3.50  
Nuneaton         38   32  -34      -5.18    27.68   -12.00    39.50     3.42   -39.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.53R    9.73  
AFC_Telford      39   26  -31     -10.64    11.56    -1.54    32.95     3.36   -35.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.83R   86.67