Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 March 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 March 2015, Liverpool 2 0 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          27   63  +35       6.89    83.99     4.56    86.31     4.08    47.71    85.56    98.66    99.85    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   58  +32      -1.01    43.22    -2.22    79.91     3.75    45.87    13.71    87.43    97.67    99.55    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   54  +23       2.04    60.37     1.84    72.98     4.12    31.16     0.59     9.69    60.75    84.19    98.81     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   53  +21       0.42    51.55    -0.52    69.77     4.13    25.56     0.12     3.07    24.50    58.10    94.17     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   51  +12       0.29    51.01    -6.89    68.25     4.09    17.52     0.02     0.94    13.01    37.42    89.14     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   49  +19       4.80    73.20    10.72    64.34     4.03    21.15     0.00     0.10     2.11    11.00    62.87     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   47   +6       5.36    76.08    -0.20    63.99     4.40     8.75     0.00     0.12     2.09     9.70    51.65     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            28   42   -1       6.48    80.95     3.63    54.65     4.10    -2.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     2.09     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          28   40   -4       3.44    67.99    -0.40    52.99     4.18    -5.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   39   +5       2.02    60.87     7.55    52.95     4.09     4.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   35  -11       2.83    65.59     0.25    46.91     4.19   -14.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   30   -8       0.02    51.40     4.78    40.59     3.86   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.69R    0.09  
West_Brom        28   30  -10      -3.24    33.71    -1.91    40.44     3.82   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.23R    0.13  
Everton          28   28   -8     -11.85     5.51    -9.46    44.22     4.26    -4.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60R    0.02  
Hull             28   27  -11      -3.15    33.86     1.69    36.39     3.82   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.12R    2.35  
Sunderland       28   26  -16      -3.65    31.21    -2.55    36.86     3.84   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.47R    2.05  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -23      -2.06    39.70    -5.98    34.65     3.75   -29.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.98R    8.37  
QPR              27   22  -19      -3.75    30.36    -0.24    31.87     4.02   -27.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.87R   24.87  
Burnley          28   22  -22      -4.71    25.92    -2.37    31.15     3.82   -29.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.94R   31.07  
Leicester        27   18  -20      -8.51    10.47    -2.27    31.03     4.34   -23.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.07R   31.05  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 6 March 2015, Fulham 1 5 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Bournemouth     36   66  +35       5.36    71.78    17.68    83.14     4.21    40.45    18.93    40.25    95.84    54.03P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   35   66  +29       6.00    75.33    11.43    82.67     4.38    31.29    15.57    32.35    93.40    48.41P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           35   65  +29       2.60    61.07     6.79    84.96     4.38    36.70    32.90    54.71    97.56    67.57P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         35   65  +28       4.11    67.49     7.58    83.03     4.50    32.44    17.45    36.03    94.13    51.17P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         35   62  +28      -0.80    46.12     5.29    81.97     4.46    35.33    13.01    29.12    92.12    49.60P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       35   61  +12      10.84    88.19     9.01    76.52     4.48    12.50     0.89     3.11    49.22    10.18P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         35   60  +17       6.11    75.26     8.36    76.72     4.45    19.47     1.10     3.84    55.12    14.07P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   35   57   +6       4.45    68.86    -0.67    73.08     4.45     7.53     0.15     0.59    20.57     4.61P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   35   50   +7      -1.16    45.15     2.68    65.35     4.48     7.27     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       35   48   +0      -0.69    47.20    -0.76    64.68     4.54     2.40     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   46   -3       0.94    54.99     0.52    60.23     4.30    -4.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.05R    0.00  
Charlton        35   45   -5       2.44    61.83     2.79    59.55     4.44    -5.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Birmingham      35   45  -10       2.10    60.15    -2.10    57.86     4.27   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.37R    0.00  
Cardiff         35   44   -4      -3.38    35.89    -3.04    60.31     4.43    -2.21     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds_United    35   44   -8       0.75    53.96    -0.56    58.05     4.41    -9.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.35R    0.00  
Huddersfield    35   42  -15       1.64    58.25    -1.90    55.10     4.43   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38R    0.00  
Bolton          35   41  -11      -3.73    34.12    -5.57    55.14     4.33   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.82R    0.01  
Reading         35   41  -16      -4.38    31.43   -11.86    55.56     4.43   -17.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.80R    0.00  
Brighton        35   40   -3     -10.37    11.73    -6.60    55.10     4.42    -2.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.99R    0.00  
Fulham          36   39  -17      -7.25    21.46   -11.00    52.81     4.28   -17.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.68R    0.01  
Rotherham       35   37  -18       1.15    56.58     1.69    47.97     4.21   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.38R    0.10  
Wigan           35   31  -15     -14.78     4.01   -11.96    45.45     4.41   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.64R    0.76  
Millwall        35   31  -26      -3.66    33.60    -5.54    40.91     4.03   -33.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.44R    5.43  
Blackpool       35   22  -40      -8.64    13.53   -12.24    32.15     4.04   -48.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   93.69  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2015, Barnsley 1 0 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City     34   73  +34      12.23    92.02    12.59    94.84     4.69    42.17    87.36    97.58   100.00    98.32P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          33   63  +23       5.25    72.80     4.84    85.36     4.92    29.69     7.98    52.03    99.92    67.51P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   62  +33       1.30    55.40    11.62    83.18     4.75    40.06     3.53    35.58    99.80    57.05P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          34   61  +21       3.07    63.13     4.25    80.14     4.78    24.94     1.10    13.72    98.84    37.85P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   53   +8       2.82    63.01     0.74    74.13     4.96    12.82     0.02     1.05    83.15    19.56P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        34   49   +1       0.13    50.82    -2.40    65.58     4.77     1.18     0.00     0.01    19.57     3.55P    0.08R    0.00  
Chesterfield     34   48   +4       1.36    56.50     4.25    65.09     4.79     4.95     0.00     0.00    18.60     2.90P    0.16R    0.00  
Bradford         33   48   +4       2.98    64.00     4.12    65.72     4.91     4.00     0.00     0.01    21.90     3.56P    0.12R    0.00  
Peterborough     34   47   -2      -3.37    35.48    -7.41    64.92     4.78     0.18     0.00     0.00    15.67     3.06P    0.24R    0.00  
Barnsley         34   47   -4      -0.83    46.68    -5.60    62.82     4.79    -4.97     0.00     0.00     7.88     1.32P    0.69R    0.00  
Oldham           33   46   -6       5.03    72.57     0.28    62.12     4.90    -8.45     0.00     0.01     6.15     0.77P    1.28R    0.00  
Gillingham       34   45   -1       1.82    58.94     4.76    60.12     4.73    -3.29     0.00     0.00     3.01     0.37P    2.72R    0.01  
Port_Vale        34   45   -4       2.31    60.83     2.13    59.77     4.67    -6.66     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.27P    3.51R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town   34   45   -4       5.63    74.59     6.06    58.68     4.54    -7.71     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.16P    4.56R    0.03  
Rochdale         32   44  +13      -1.86    41.84    10.49    64.08     5.33    14.14     0.00     0.02    16.71     2.86P    0.64R    0.00  
Walsall          34   44   -2      -2.10    40.59    -1.95    59.86     4.60    -2.65     0.00     0.00     2.22     0.39P    2.58R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       33   42   -4       0.22    51.67     1.78    58.79     4.99    -5.75     0.00     0.00     2.13     0.31P    5.98R    0.09  
Notts_County     33   41   -6      -1.71    42.78    -2.34    57.47     4.89    -7.94     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.14P    9.19R    0.20  
Crewe            34   39  -27       5.58    75.70    -6.19    50.39     4.34   -35.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.43R    6.03  
Coventry         33   36  -11      -5.84    25.17    -5.73    53.68     4.93   -11.30     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   29.92R    1.52  
Leyton_Orient    33   35   -7     -13.49     6.11   -11.66    54.14     5.03    -5.15     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   25.19R    1.66  
Colchester       34   34  -17      -4.33    31.25    -4.30    48.17     4.65   -20.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.60R   14.31  
Crawley_Town     34   34  -23      -2.95    36.98    -8.56    48.01     4.60   -26.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.75R   15.53  
Yeovil           34   30  -23      -8.50    16.08   -11.77    42.94     4.51   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.38R   60.58  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Shrewsbury           34   64  +24       3.83    66.56     4.51    85.35     4.62    31.01    54.51    90.69    99.87    93.82P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   64  +16      11.48    90.77     7.23    82.45     4.67    19.08    21.58    72.03    98.93    78.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   63  +19      10.75    89.08    10.59    81.00     4.64    21.44    16.13    63.09    98.33    71.54P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                34   58  +13       7.00    78.70     6.19    75.66     4.70    14.90     2.02    19.71    83.37    35.37P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 34   58  +11       5.09    72.11     1.56    76.34     4.72    13.86     2.63    22.60    86.73    39.38P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   58   +8       5.17    72.62    -1.29    76.89     4.62    11.57     2.82    24.65    88.92    42.38P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       34   53   +1       9.47    86.35     5.09    68.62     4.59    -0.12     0.02     0.88    26.46     5.26P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             34   52  +14       2.78    62.88     9.59    69.57     4.63    15.78     0.10     1.93    39.75    10.86P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            34   52   +6      -0.18    49.58    -2.39    71.16     4.77    10.07     0.17     3.81    51.16    16.52P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          34   50  +11       1.26    55.83     7.79    66.72     4.68    11.46     0.02     0.57    19.40     4.70P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   46   +0       2.34    61.16     4.09    61.65     4.65    -1.10     0.00     0.01     2.55     0.49P    0.04R    0.00  
Morecambe            34   45   +0       0.34    52.22     2.16    59.98     4.57    -1.80     0.00     0.01     1.09     0.28P    0.13R    0.01  
Portsmouth           34   44   +1      -3.93    32.87    -1.29    60.60     4.70     1.31     0.00     0.01     1.88     0.46P    0.12R    0.00  
Exeter               34   44   -5      -1.11    45.46    -2.85    59.89     4.64    -5.82     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.21P    0.23R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley   34   43  -13       2.52    62.34    -3.76    58.17     4.67   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.78R    0.03  
Cambridge_Utd        34   41   +1      -1.18    45.41     7.47    55.75     4.61    -1.49     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    2.08R    0.18  
Mansfield            34   41  -13       2.27    61.49    -2.33    54.83     4.53   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    4.13R    0.39  
Dag_&_Red            34   40   -7      -2.88    37.41    -1.82    54.24     4.57   -10.23     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    4.14R    0.32  
Oxford_Utd           34   39   -4      -6.59    22.35    -3.17    55.05     4.55    -4.41     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    2.80R    0.31  
York                 34   36   -6      -8.08    17.12    -3.34    52.44     4.60    -5.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.03R    1.35  
Carlisle             34   36  -17      -6.24    24.29   -10.18    51.33     4.70   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   15.41R    2.58  
Tranmere             34   34  -10     -12.50     7.64   -10.26    49.84     4.67   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.11R    3.53  
Cheltenham           34   34  -19      -5.07    27.81    -8.36    47.45     4.49   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.60R    9.59  
Hartlepool           34   27  -31      -8.51    14.68   -15.22    40.19     4.46   -35.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.40R   81.70  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2015, Aldershot 3 1 Dover_Athletic; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Bristol_Rovers   37   73  +22       5.88    74.25    -1.82    89.79     3.83    28.63    43.81    99.75    62.86P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           36   71  +37       5.47    72.75    11.19    89.58     4.18    44.58    48.83    99.63    64.92P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     36   67  +15      12.57    91.69     7.22    82.30     4.13    17.53     2.76    84.70    16.78P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   65  +26       1.81    57.83     5.17    82.77     4.24    31.84     3.87    89.75    30.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     37   65  +19       4.42    68.26     3.41    78.60     4.03    20.78     0.42    59.04    11.94P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        34   57  +18       5.20    71.27    10.10    72.88     4.74    17.04     0.06    15.17     2.58P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           36   56  +18       2.00    58.84    10.73    71.57     4.33    20.78     0.00     9.45     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          33   55  +13       2.25    60.39     1.37    74.45     4.93    15.46     0.21    23.42     4.97P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        33   53  +11       1.14    55.30     0.76    72.11     4.94    12.92     0.03    12.42     2.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    36   52   +3      -1.82    41.97    -3.97    66.45     4.28     4.16     0.00     0.41     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Chester          35   49   -8       9.24    86.05     5.05    61.48     4.26   -12.12     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   48   -6       2.53    61.62    -1.47    62.15     4.50    -7.65     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   34   47   +8       0.13    50.87     8.12    63.32     4.76     7.84     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay          33   46   +8      -8.04    18.09    -5.63    69.98     4.86    17.68     0.00     5.82     1.51P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       36   46  -13       6.16    75.88     2.30    57.45     4.14   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot        36   43   -8      -7.35    20.82    -9.64    55.54     4.06    -9.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   35   42   -2      -6.18    24.10    -2.81    57.70     4.41    -0.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          32   42   -6      -1.45    43.41    -5.86    62.80     5.09    -3.52     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Southport        35   36  -21      -0.91    46.85    -2.92    48.85     4.29   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.61R    0.16  
Alfreton_Town    35   34  -29      -2.35    39.84    -8.47    46.32     4.31   -33.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.90R    0.62  
Welling          35   33  -17      -6.85    21.50    -4.48    45.42     4.30   -21.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.50R    0.61  
Nuneaton         36   30  -34      -5.10    27.44   -12.30    39.48     3.88   -40.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.62R   12.31  
Dartford         34   28  -26      -5.53    25.40    -4.82    40.96     4.48   -31.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.85R    8.02  
AFC_Telford      35   23  -28     -10.26    10.81    -1.22    33.01     4.21   -36.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.44R   78.27