Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 21 February 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2015, Aston_Villa 1 2 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          26   60  +34       5.78    80.27     4.23    85.30     4.30    47.72    73.04    98.34    99.77    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   55  +31      -0.29    47.02    -1.68    81.20     4.16    47.76    26.40    93.41    98.75    99.70    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   48  +20       0.31    51.28     1.12    70.91     4.56    30.00     0.38     5.00    52.24    75.99    96.59     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   47  +18      -1.19    42.69    -1.13    67.80     4.58    24.52     0.10     1.55    21.99    49.07    88.72     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      25   46  +21       5.78    78.92    12.45    66.89     4.73    25.25     0.07     1.24    16.37    41.38    84.66     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   43   +5       4.95    75.43     0.03    63.57     4.89     8.94     0.01     0.25     4.83    15.53    56.88     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   42   +7      -2.74    34.67    -8.86    63.84     4.75    13.33     0.01     0.21     5.92    17.48    61.43     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   38   +8       3.87    70.85     8.54    56.06     4.75     7.82     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.78     8.65     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          26   37   -4       3.08    67.04    -0.56    52.44     4.62    -5.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     1.68     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            26   36   -4       4.27    73.05     2.30    51.39     4.56    -5.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.06     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        26   32  -11       2.59    65.27     0.48    46.57     4.61   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.24R    0.01  
Everton          25   27   -4      -9.77     8.29    -7.13    47.95     4.85     0.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.16R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -9      -0.67    47.42     3.26    38.87     4.18   -16.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.79R    0.74  
West_Brom        26   27  -10      -3.51    31.77    -1.81    39.99     4.30   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.93R    0.67  
Hull             26   26  -10      -1.83    40.38     2.26    37.99     4.27   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.33R    1.68  
Sunderland       26   25  -14      -3.25    32.88    -2.53    37.65     4.25   -20.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.50R    2.20  
QPR              26   22  -18      -2.88    34.65    -0.12    32.47     4.23   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.20R   23.15  
Burnley          26   22  -19      -3.60    31.01    -1.85    32.98     4.23   -27.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.76R   19.35  
Aston_Villa      26   22  -23      -2.65    35.66    -6.25    33.80     4.20   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.53R   14.91  
Leicester        25   17  -18      -8.10    11.04    -2.74    30.71     4.59   -24.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.56R   37.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2015, Blackburn 1 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Derby           32   62  +31       3.54    65.94     8.41    87.65     5.04    41.06    53.27    74.66    99.12    82.39P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   60  +27       5.60    74.47    11.70    82.44     5.05    31.66    13.12    32.93    93.24    49.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     32   59  +31       5.53    73.89    16.43    82.49     5.13    37.66    14.23    35.88    93.59    50.09P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   57  +18       7.13    79.94     9.31    78.19     5.10    20.98     2.82     9.90    73.30    22.79P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         32   56  +26      -1.32    43.15     5.40    81.18     5.17    35.01    10.07    26.35    90.01    47.27P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         32   56  +23       1.72    57.62     6.84    79.64     5.17    29.88     5.76    16.92    83.51    34.04P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   55   +6      11.78    91.27     7.29    75.10     5.15     7.19     0.65     2.85    46.09     9.31P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   32   51   +3       3.58    66.16    -2.10    70.69     5.14     3.74     0.08     0.51    17.25     3.92P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   44   +4      -2.20    40.23     1.09    63.03     5.17     3.55     0.00     0.00     1.53     0.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       32   44   +0      -1.02    45.71    -1.39    63.98     5.17     1.13     0.00     0.01     1.79     0.34P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    32   41   -6       0.96    55.50    -0.03    58.73     5.05    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    0.59R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   40   -6       0.13    51.34    -0.98    57.89     4.96    -7.81     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.79R    0.00  
Reading         32   40  -10      -3.39    34.59    -9.12    59.44     5.14    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.50R    0.00  
Charlton        32   39   -7       0.82    54.72     1.06    56.86     5.05    -8.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.41R    0.00  
Birmingham      32   39  -10       0.32    52.16    -1.89    55.99     4.97   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.35R    0.02  
Huddersfield    32   39  -12       1.48    57.90    -1.21    55.73     5.07   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.95R    0.03  
Cardiff         32   38   -6      -4.43    30.61    -3.65    58.19     5.17    -4.54     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.06R    0.01  
Bolton          32   37  -11      -3.93    32.68    -5.87    54.97     5.00   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.88R    0.05  
Fulham          32   36  -11      -7.55    19.53    -9.62    54.52     5.18   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.99R    0.09  
Brighton        32   34   -6     -11.22     8.53    -8.10    52.93     5.10    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.94R    0.12  
Rotherham       32   34  -14       0.85    55.31     3.00    48.61     4.87   -21.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.63R    0.98  
Millwall        32   31  -20      -1.72    42.47    -3.13    44.49     4.68   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.09R    5.63  
Wigan           32   25  -17     -16.30     2.14   -13.39    42.95     5.06   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.00R   11.14  
Blackpool       32   22  -33      -7.31    17.01   -10.03    35.28     4.68   -42.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.77R   81.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2015, Barnsley 2 0 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City     31   64  +29       9.50    87.16    10.94    90.53     5.37    38.10    54.69    81.72   100.00    87.23P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   62  +35       3.70    66.34    12.92    87.23     5.15    44.08    28.19    64.74    99.95    76.84P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          31   57  +23       3.09    63.99     5.97    82.56     5.41    30.43     8.09    25.10    99.11    47.34P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          30   56  +18       4.64    71.29     3.14    83.01     5.57    25.40     8.70    26.34    98.98    48.39P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        30   49   +8       3.09    64.74     0.99    75.04     5.55    13.93     0.31     1.95    83.84    20.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford         30   45   +6       3.33    66.00     5.04    66.99     5.55     6.20     0.01     0.06    32.04     5.28P    0.16R    0.00  
Doncaster        31   45   +1       0.15    51.10    -2.59    65.27     5.42     0.67     0.00     0.02    20.13     3.89P    0.48R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   32   44   -1       6.02    76.74     6.98    60.61     5.03    -4.37     0.00     0.00     4.33     0.49P    2.79R    0.03  
Oldham           31   43   -3       3.43    66.54     1.34    61.96     5.30    -5.28     0.00     0.00     7.09     0.96P    2.32R    0.06  
Chesterfield     32   42   +0      -0.48    48.45     2.23    60.98     5.21    -0.34     0.00     0.00     5.53     0.94P    2.99R    0.07  
Gillingham       32   42   -3       2.12    60.22     3.70    59.00     5.15    -6.75     0.00     0.00     2.48     0.34P    6.82R    0.19  
Port_Vale        32   42   -4       1.94    59.29     2.10    59.32     5.12    -6.97     0.00     0.00     2.48     0.35P    6.01R    0.19  
Rochdale         29   41  +11       0.17    51.03     9.86    64.69     5.99    11.25     0.01     0.06    21.99     3.76P    1.09R    0.03  
Walsall          31   41   +0      -2.07    40.84    -1.27    60.89     5.25    -0.70     0.00     0.00     5.01     0.92P    3.14R    0.08  
Peterborough     32   41   -5      -5.55    26.22    -8.83    61.15     5.18    -3.54     0.00     0.00     5.31     0.96P    3.02R    0.09  
Scunthorpe       30   40   -3       1.98    59.86     2.26    61.40     5.71    -4.03     0.00     0.00     7.70     1.16P    3.83R    0.17  
Notts_County     31   38   -6      -1.93    41.40    -2.18    57.46     5.35    -7.69     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.26P   12.33R    0.70  
Barnsley         31   38   -7      -4.45    30.40    -6.63    57.78     5.48    -8.28     0.00     0.00     1.96     0.37P   11.91R    0.57  
Crewe            32   38  -23       5.70    76.37    -4.63    51.23     4.80   -32.60     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   56.34R    7.85  
Colchester       32   34  -14      -2.92    37.01    -3.18    50.95     5.12   -17.44     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    54.18R    8.90  
Coventry         31   33  -11      -6.47    22.14    -6.25    52.79     5.38   -12.29     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   39.00R    4.71  
Crawley_Town     32   33  -22      -2.00    41.29    -8.48    49.06     5.05   -26.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   70.16R   17.05  
Leyton_Orient    31   32   -7     -13.91     4.88   -11.97    53.72     5.44    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P   30.81R    3.55  
Yeovil           32   29  -22      -7.36    18.82   -11.46    44.21     4.95   -27.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.61R   55.75  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 3 2 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Burton_Albion        32   64  +18      13.66    94.83     8.40    86.20     5.15    22.53    41.12    89.49    99.81    92.10P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   61  +24       4.44    69.91     5.73    86.23     5.04    32.60    46.64    92.22    99.88    94.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   59  +18      10.02    88.40    10.35    79.67     5.05    20.39     7.92    52.34    96.25    62.71P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                32   55  +12       6.89    79.20     5.52    75.66     5.11    14.29     1.55    21.11    83.44    36.61P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             32   54   +6       4.82    71.85    -2.07    76.00     5.07    10.16     1.64    21.45    84.24    38.49P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             32   52  +17       4.29    69.78    10.93    72.61     5.06    19.21     0.53     9.18    68.03    23.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   52   +8       2.72    62.74    -0.14    72.88     5.12    10.60     0.43     8.86    66.47    24.07P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       32   50   +1       9.05    85.85     4.98    68.32     5.02    -0.23     0.04     1.47    29.02     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   48   +5      -1.19    44.66    -3.01    69.75     5.24     8.87     0.13     3.37    43.36    14.55P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          32   44   +9      -1.40    43.67     6.65    62.67     5.05     8.20     0.00     0.10     7.31     1.71P    0.03R    0.00  
Morecambe            32   44   +2       1.38    56.75     3.30    61.99     5.00     0.62     0.00     0.08     4.56     1.06P    0.03R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   44   +1       3.98    68.87     4.67    63.71     5.32    -0.24     0.00     0.24     9.44     2.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Exeter               33   43   -5      -0.62    47.73    -2.59    60.00     4.88    -6.22     0.00     0.01     1.71     0.34P    0.21R    0.01  
Portsmouth           31   40   +1      -3.59    33.26    -0.96    61.10     5.33     1.83     0.00     0.06     4.27     1.01P    0.20R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   40  -11       2.39    62.00    -3.27    58.29     5.29   -14.46     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.18P    0.99R    0.09  
Cambridge_Utd        31   37   +2      -1.50    43.52     7.93    56.12     5.35    -0.12     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.11P    2.41R    0.35  
Oxford_Utd           32   37   -4      -5.95    24.23    -3.17    55.71     5.04    -4.55     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.09P    2.13R    0.30  
Dag_&_Red            32   37   -8      -2.69    37.88    -2.09    54.12     4.98   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    4.24R    0.58  
Mansfield            32   35  -15      -0.70    47.46    -3.78    51.03     4.91   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.89R    2.74  
Tranmere             31   34   -6     -10.10    11.13    -8.74    54.43     5.32    -5.97     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.07P    4.55R    0.58  
Carlisle             32   33  -16      -6.85    21.70    -9.53    50.97     5.14   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   16.06R    3.38  
York                 32   32   -9      -8.21    16.00    -4.72    50.83     5.03    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.43R    2.97  
Cheltenham           32   31  -20      -5.17    26.54    -9.01    46.61     4.92   -25.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.79R   12.50  
Hartlepool           32   24  -30      -9.72    10.73   -15.36    39.72     4.93   -34.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.01R   76.51  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2015, Alfreton_Town 2 3 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           35   68  +35       4.83    70.62    10.82    88.32     4.44    43.14    52.84    99.11    66.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   35   67  +20       3.69    66.00    -2.44    87.04     4.31    27.38    32.08    98.16    53.99P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     34   64  +18      11.01    89.44     8.34    82.18     4.58    20.80     7.02    83.93    21.02P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   61  +17       4.24    68.14     3.23    77.93     4.51    19.73     1.28    55.54    12.08P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   59  +24       0.06    49.78     5.35    81.14     4.58    32.48     4.81    82.93    28.63P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        33   54  +14       5.20    71.69     8.73    70.77     4.98    12.22     0.08     9.95     1.71P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          31   54  +14       3.72    67.02     1.83    76.67     5.41    17.16     1.80    44.06    10.40P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    34   51   +5      -0.70    46.86    -2.90    68.33     4.76     6.34     0.00     2.90     0.57P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           34   50  +14       0.11    50.84     8.91    68.22     4.81    16.57     0.00     3.92     0.65P    0.00     0.00  
Chester          35   49   -8       9.20    85.73     4.96    61.54     4.27   -12.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   48   -4       3.14    64.52    -0.79    63.81     4.77    -5.20     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   33   47  +10       0.60    52.86     8.60    64.80     5.02    10.07     0.00     1.02     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +8       0.31    51.54    -0.62    70.23     5.55     9.96     0.09    10.01     2.02P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay          33   46   +8      -8.05    18.14    -5.66    69.97     4.83    17.61     0.00     6.95     1.74P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       35   46  -11       6.73    77.81     2.89    58.43     4.35   -15.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   32   42   +1      -3.85    32.56    -2.23    61.09     4.97     1.19     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   41   -4      -0.56    47.54    -5.05    64.45     5.50    -1.61     0.00     1.03     0.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot        34   39  -10      -7.59    19.17   -10.17    54.89     4.53   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24R    0.00  
Welling          34   33  -16      -5.97    24.25    -4.18    46.97     4.55   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.02R    0.53  
Southport        33   33  -20      -1.84    42.27    -3.29    47.45     4.65   -25.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.14R    0.74  
Alfreton_Town    34   31  -30      -3.68    33.86    -8.84    44.40     4.55   -35.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.59R    3.25  
Dartford         32   27  -24      -4.64    28.36    -4.31    41.96     4.89   -30.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.44R    8.31  
Nuneaton         35   27  -35      -6.33    22.08   -12.45    37.67     4.14   -41.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.97R   30.49  
AFC_Telford      33   23  -26      -8.58    15.20    -0.73    35.01     4.64   -36.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.57R   56.68