Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 16 February 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 11 February 2015, Chelsea 1 0 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          25   59  +34       6.74    84.61     5.16    87.22     4.41    50.59    85.64    99.22    99.91    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   52  +26      -0.03    48.37    -3.04    80.38     4.35    44.13    13.88    89.33    97.40    99.33    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   47  +19      -0.01    49.33    -0.52    69.65     4.81    26.28     0.20     4.66    36.00    63.14    93.30     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      25   46  +21       5.77    78.75    12.43    66.99     4.73    25.41     0.06     1.65    16.33    39.73    84.89     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   45  +19      -0.65    45.99     1.15    69.79     4.80    29.74     0.21     4.50    39.73    66.13    93.97     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   43   +5       4.92    75.38    -0.08    63.60     4.86     8.99     0.01     0.33     4.74    14.48    56.54     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   42   +7      -2.77    34.47    -8.97    63.85     4.76    13.33     0.01     0.30     5.74    16.44    60.83     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   38   +8       3.95    71.31     8.72    56.04     4.79     7.82     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.71     8.64     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          25   34   -5       1.62    59.83    -1.30    50.39     4.84    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.86     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke            25   33   -5       2.91    67.15     1.63    49.69     4.75    -6.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        25   32   -6       2.17    62.96     2.00    47.30     4.73   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.24R    0.01  
Everton          25   27   -4      -9.75     8.51    -7.05    47.92     4.89     0.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.24R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   25   27   -8       0.05    51.43     3.26    39.73     4.39   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.23R    0.57  
West_Brom        25   26  -10      -3.39    32.12    -1.98    40.14     4.57   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.07R    0.77  
Sunderland       25   24  -14      -2.88    34.41    -2.37    38.12     4.48   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.75R    2.22  
Hull             25   23  -11      -3.08    33.00     1.77    36.61     4.52   -17.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.38R    4.61  
QPR              25   22  -17      -2.08    38.95     0.08    33.60     4.43   -27.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.69R   16.19  
Aston_Villa      25   22  -22      -1.59    41.65    -5.83    35.15     4.45   -29.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.02R    9.52  
Burnley          25   21  -19      -3.40    31.59    -2.45    31.95     4.29   -30.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.14R   28.17  
Leicester        25   17  -18      -8.00    11.35    -2.63    30.67     4.64   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.19R   37.93  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2015, Blackpool 4 4 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Bournemouth     31   59  +33       6.35    77.51    17.49    84.39     5.37    40.44    18.96    41.54    96.72    55.49P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   59  +28       7.48    82.15    12.82    85.24     5.42    34.15    22.07    44.70    97.53    58.89P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   58  +30       3.43    66.22     9.34    87.70     5.45    41.92    42.34    66.21    98.95    76.47P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   57  +19       8.43    84.27    10.18    80.26     5.33    22.98     4.48    13.60    85.66    28.01P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         31   56  +26       2.09    59.31     8.14    81.66     5.37    33.89     8.55    22.31    91.76    40.87P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         31   53  +23      -2.19    39.26     3.56    78.88     5.47    30.94     3.39    10.62    81.46    32.12P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   52   +4      11.14    90.46     6.83    72.85     5.35     4.26     0.20     0.86    30.64     4.96P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   48   -2       4.14    68.91    -3.93    68.80     5.34    -1.62     0.02     0.12    10.51     1.95P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   42   +0       0.06    50.64    -0.80    65.49     5.57     2.28     0.00     0.02     4.61     0.85P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   41   +1      -2.57    38.06    -0.05    61.35     5.40     0.45     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.17P    0.20R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   40   -5       1.01    55.73    -0.82    58.55     5.07    -7.80     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.74R    0.00  
Leeds_United    31   38   -7      -0.49    48.03    -0.61    56.24     5.21   -10.29     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.73R    0.02  
Birmingham      30   38   -9       1.46    57.75    -1.94    57.05     5.33   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    1.97R    0.02  
Huddersfield    31   38  -12       1.91    60.04    -0.90    56.18     5.33   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    3.09R    0.02  
Bolton          31   37   -8      -3.84    32.79    -4.98    56.45     5.24    -9.95     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    2.59R    0.02  
Reading         30   37  -10      -3.99    31.68    -9.54    59.01     5.56   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    1.17R    0.01  
Cardiff         30   36   -6      -3.69    33.12    -3.59    59.17     5.65    -4.22     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    1.08R    0.01  
Charlton        31   36  -10       0.23    52.11    -0.39    54.32     5.19   -13.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.75R    0.07  
Fulham          31   35  -11      -7.19    20.22    -9.63    55.13     5.43   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    5.16R    0.08  
Rotherham       30   33   -9       0.14    51.81     3.65    50.00     5.30   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.52R    0.65  
Brighton        31   31   -7     -12.32     6.17    -8.43    51.46     5.27    -6.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.84R    0.32  
Millwall        31   30  -20      -1.69    42.49    -3.48    44.78     4.95   -28.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.55R    5.20  
Wigan           30   22  -15     -17.14     1.27   -12.24    42.96     5.46   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.75R   11.38  
Blackpool       31   21  -33      -7.40    16.12   -10.69    34.89     4.83   -43.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.83R   82.21  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2015, Bristol_City 1 3 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City     29   61  +28      10.07    89.44    11.18    91.17     5.83    38.44    62.10    84.54    99.97    89.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          30   57  +24       4.59    70.89     7.13    84.84     5.58    32.84    16.20    45.22    99.61    61.91P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   56  +31       2.21    59.90    11.64    84.43     5.59    40.82    14.92    45.13    99.46    62.88P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          29   53  +16       3.91    68.41     2.43    81.56     5.78    23.68     6.39    22.42    97.57    43.99P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   45   +7       2.50    62.49     0.90    74.19     6.00    13.55     0.37     2.38    76.59    19.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           30   43   +0       3.79    68.28     2.84    63.55     5.53    -1.97     0.00     0.01    11.68     1.72P    1.10R    0.02  
Chesterfield     30   42   +3       1.26    56.41     3.76    64.06     5.74     3.04     0.00     0.03    15.48     2.62P    1.04R    0.01  
Doncaster        29   42   +3      -0.76    46.58    -1.50    66.26     5.86     4.53     0.02     0.12    26.06     5.52P    0.38R    0.00  
Bradford         28   41   +4       2.74    63.83     4.07    65.04     5.92     3.28     0.01     0.07    20.10     3.37P    0.73R    0.01  
Peterborough     30   41   +0      -4.79    28.77    -6.79    63.75     5.60     1.16     0.00     0.01    13.48     2.91P    1.09R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town   31   41   -2       4.71    71.65     6.45    58.76     5.25    -5.65     0.00     0.00     2.07     0.24P    6.49R    0.13  
Gillingham       31   41   -3       2.47    62.30     3.52    59.55     5.35    -6.44     0.00     0.00     2.95     0.41P    5.39R    0.16  
Walsall          30   40   +0      -1.71    41.91    -1.28    61.24     5.43    -0.73     0.00     0.00     5.90     1.09P    2.62R    0.05  
Port_Vale        31   39   -7       1.09    55.94     0.27    57.28     5.32   -10.63     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.15P   12.16R    0.57  
Rochdale         28   38  +10      -1.11    45.08     9.42    62.96     6.21    10.03     0.00     0.05    14.37     2.47P    2.38R    0.05  
Notts_County     29   38   -4       0.18    51.57    -1.14    60.40     5.73    -5.28     0.00     0.00     4.62     0.72P    4.97R    0.17  
Crewe            30   38  -20       7.02    81.55    -3.84    53.32     5.22   -30.57     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P   36.80R    3.24  
Scunthorpe       28   37   -3       1.37    57.49     1.75    60.74     6.09    -4.69     0.00     0.01     6.88     1.01P    5.28R    0.23  
Barnsley         30   35   -9      -5.20    26.99    -7.26    56.38     5.69    -9.94     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.25P   17.10R    1.02  
Coventry         30   32  -11      -6.26    22.37    -6.48    52.72     5.57   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   37.67R    4.09  
Colchester       30   31  -14      -3.69    33.05    -4.06    49.45     5.50   -19.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    62.78R   13.03  
Crawley_Town     31   30  -23      -3.31    34.85    -9.11    46.37     5.19   -29.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.55R   29.76  
Leyton_Orient    29   29   -8     -13.69     4.48   -12.20    53.75     5.90    -5.99     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.10P   29.92R    3.42  
Yeovil           31   28  -22      -7.11    19.38   -11.71    44.54     5.19   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.54R   44.02  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 February 2015, Morecambe 2 3 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Shrewsbury           31   61  +25       5.57    75.23     6.41    87.94     5.20    34.07    62.55    94.89    99.94    96.60P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   61  +16      12.94    94.42     7.68    84.16     5.33    20.00    23.59    78.94    99.36    83.96P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   56  +17       8.79    85.78     9.89    78.01     5.27    19.38     4.47    36.99    93.41    51.09P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                30   55  +14       9.31    87.19     7.02    78.90     5.57    17.06     5.98    42.97    93.68    55.58P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             31   54   +8       5.55    75.21    -0.91    77.28     5.24    12.03     2.67    28.88    90.03    46.37P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       31   50   +2      10.20    89.03     5.72    70.09     5.24     1.36     0.12     3.19    45.57    10.91P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             31   49  +15       3.19    65.38     9.67    70.77     5.26    16.98     0.23     4.86    56.51    17.93P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   49   +7       1.85    58.86     0.02    71.85     5.35    10.49     0.35     7.19    61.80    21.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            31   45   +3      -1.80    41.53    -3.56    67.86     5.43     6.44     0.04     1.80    32.78    10.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter               32   43   -3      -0.21    49.35    -2.06    61.70     5.08    -3.65     0.00     0.04     5.06     1.10P    0.08R    0.01  
Northampton          31   41   +6      -1.73    42.18     5.51    60.98     5.24     5.15     0.00     0.06     4.82     1.07P    0.18R    0.01  
Morecambe            31   41   +1      -0.09    50.04     2.51    59.88     5.19    -1.11     0.00     0.02     2.86     0.64P    0.23R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   41   +0       2.64    63.15     3.98    61.87     5.50    -1.50     0.00     0.10     6.49     1.40P    0.19R    0.01  
Accrington_Stanley   30   39  -11       2.74    63.91    -3.42    59.20     5.51   -13.62     0.00     0.03     2.12     0.39P    0.91R    0.14  
Cambridge_Utd        30   37   +6      -1.70    42.31     9.28    58.50     5.57     5.48     0.00     0.02     2.38     0.51P    0.95R    0.11  
Portsmouth           30   37   -3      -3.99    31.46    -3.27    58.71     5.50    -3.19     0.00     0.01     2.22     0.53P    0.91R    0.07  
Dag_&_Red            31   37   -6      -1.93    41.37    -1.15    55.65     5.18    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    2.69R    0.38  
Oxford_Utd           31   34   -7      -6.31    22.00    -4.42    54.11     5.21    -7.50     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    4.88R    0.79  
Carlisle             31   33  -15      -5.54    26.00    -8.82    52.46     5.34   -16.81     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   10.68R    2.40  
York                 31   32   -6      -8.07    15.66    -3.45    52.32     5.21    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    9.48R    1.93  
Mansfield            30   32  -13      -1.74    42.16    -2.87    50.19     5.32   -17.89     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   20.45R    4.98  
Tranmere             30   31   -7     -11.30     8.60    -9.13    52.35     5.54    -7.49     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   10.40R    2.03  
Cheltenham           31   30  -20      -5.05    26.59    -9.38    46.57     5.11   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.23R   14.74  
Hartlepool           31   24  -29      -8.92    12.35   -15.24    40.28     5.06   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.75R   72.37  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2015, AFC_Telford 2 3 Dartford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           34   68  +37       5.70    74.31    12.00    90.19     4.66    45.88    68.85    99.68    78.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   34   64  +19       2.93    62.75    -2.24    86.31     4.51    27.72    21.76    97.77    47.92P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     34   64  +18      11.27    90.24     8.75    82.13     4.59    20.71     5.50    87.36    20.65P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   58  +14       3.83    66.87     2.29    77.03     4.65    18.00     0.73    54.27    11.57P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   56  +22      -1.26    43.69     3.92    78.97     4.85    29.67     2.10    73.18    23.20P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        32   51  +13       4.32    68.59     9.03    68.90     5.21    10.75     0.02     8.08     1.35P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          30   51  +13       2.65    62.64     1.69    75.22     5.59    16.40     0.95    39.86     8.97P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           34   50  +14       0.07    50.53     8.84    68.18     4.83    16.54     0.00     5.54     0.90P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    33   50   +5      -0.01    50.05    -2.44    69.00     4.99     6.79     0.01     6.29     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Chester          34   49   -7       9.99    87.87     5.14    63.09     4.53   -10.73     0.00     0.30     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   48   -4       3.10    64.12    -0.83    63.87     4.79    -5.15     0.00     0.55     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   47   +8       0.32    51.47    -0.61    70.23     5.55     9.94     0.07    12.80     2.56P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   32   46  +10       1.28    56.42     9.10    65.90     5.25    11.18     0.00     2.85     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay          33   46   +8      -8.02    18.07    -5.65    69.97     4.84    17.61     0.01     9.51     2.42P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       34   46  -10       7.23    79.60     2.60    58.98     4.51   -15.58     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   31   42   +2      -2.78    36.90    -1.57    62.14     5.17     1.72     0.00     0.45     0.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   41   -4      -0.63    47.37    -5.13    64.48     5.52    -1.56     0.00     1.48     0.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot        33   36  -11      -8.69    15.35   -10.41    53.24     4.75   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.20R    0.02  
Welling          34   33  -16      -6.05    24.14    -4.26    47.07     4.60   -19.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.54R    0.67  
Southport        32   32  -20      -1.74    42.62    -3.77    47.25     4.84   -26.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.16R    1.21  
Alfreton_Town    33   31  -29      -2.74    37.89    -8.71    45.76     4.78   -34.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.35R    2.41  
Dartford         32   27  -24      -4.98    26.99    -4.79    42.09     4.91   -30.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.38R    9.25  
Nuneaton         34   26  -35      -6.16    22.32   -12.46    37.68     4.33   -42.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.48R   35.20  
AFC_Telford      32   23  -23      -8.69    14.46    -0.52    35.86     4.81   -34.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.89R   51.25