Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 2 February 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 February 2015, Arsenal 5 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          23   53  +32       5.13    78.98     5.38    85.77     4.76    51.48    75.97    97.34    99.56    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   48  +23       0.56    52.18    -3.04    80.95     4.69    44.18    22.65    86.97    96.73    99.22    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   43  +17      -0.01    49.34    -0.54    69.74     5.17    26.41     0.50     5.35    32.97    61.40    93.07     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      23   42  +20       5.18    77.29    12.29    66.85     5.16    26.05     0.12     1.77    14.80    38.35    84.33     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   42  +19      -0.14    48.75     2.35    71.07     5.15    32.31     0.73     7.98    47.60    73.27    95.87     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   40   +5       4.30    73.56    -0.67    62.72     5.26     7.95     0.02     0.27     3.77    12.47    52.14     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   38   +6      -3.32    30.81    -8.94    62.94     5.19    12.88     0.00     0.30     4.26    13.82    56.51     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         23   36   +8       4.16    73.07     8.04    55.86     5.16     6.41     0.00     0.01     0.23     1.09    10.97     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          23   33   -3       2.86    67.06    -0.04    52.89     5.29    -4.28     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.34     3.79     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            23   32   -2       3.37    70.11     2.70    51.05     5.15    -4.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.96     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        23   30   -6       2.96    68.00     2.18    48.07     5.18   -10.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.56     0.26R    0.01  
Everton          23   26   -3      -8.77     9.76    -7.25    48.84     5.24     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.82     0.16R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   23   23   -9      -1.19    43.99     2.54    38.20     4.84   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.56R    2.64  
Sunderland       23   23  -12      -1.77    40.31    -1.32    40.11     4.94   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.79R    1.30  
West_Brom        23   22  -12      -4.06    27.37    -3.02    38.55     4.97   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.05R    2.84  
Aston_Villa      23   22  -19      -0.36    49.13    -5.08    37.10     4.80   -27.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.33R    5.25  
Burnley          23   20  -17      -2.71    34.89    -2.48    32.60     4.66   -30.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.50R   23.69  
Hull             23   19  -13      -4.20    25.95    -0.27    33.91     4.79   -21.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.47R   14.55  
QPR              23   19  -18      -2.48    35.83    -0.60    32.09     4.80   -30.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.53R   28.41  
Leicester        23   17  -16      -6.26    17.07    -2.25    32.95     5.00   -24.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.32R   21.30  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2015, Birmingham 0 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Bournemouth     28   54  +31       6.63    79.95    17.33    84.14     6.03    39.42    26.61    50.95    96.25    62.62P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   54  +27       3.43    66.89     8.43    86.65     5.87    39.09    42.41    67.35    98.51    76.91P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   53  +25       5.84    77.34    12.20    82.89     5.81    32.43    17.50    39.32    94.74    55.11P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   51  +19       6.75    80.44    10.40    79.44     5.92    24.50     6.36    18.71    84.19    33.68P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       28   49   +7      10.80    90.78     7.56    74.22     6.04     7.62     1.20     4.35    52.41    11.76P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         28   47  +23      -1.31    42.96     7.65    77.26     6.00    31.64     4.13    12.60    75.65    30.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   45   -2       5.32    74.90    -3.90    69.60     5.91    -2.04     0.19     0.86    22.22     4.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         28   44  +16      -3.47    32.97     2.27    74.79     6.03    25.12     1.58     5.72    60.21    21.81P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       28   39   +0      -0.09    49.82    -0.81    65.38     5.96     2.32     0.01     0.11     8.30     1.79P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   38   -4       2.53    63.47    -0.57    60.55     5.70    -6.88     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.25P    0.75R    0.00  
Birmingham      28   37   -8       2.90    65.20    -1.51    58.94     5.71   -12.72     0.00     0.01     0.77     0.11P    1.74R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest   28   34   -3      -3.88    31.18    -1.76    58.03     5.94    -4.07     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.14P    2.50R    0.07  
Cardiff         28   34   -6      -2.99    35.93    -3.55    59.92     6.03    -4.20     0.00     0.01     1.42     0.28P    1.38R    0.04  
Bolton          28   34   -6      -3.48    33.34    -4.57    56.94     5.84    -8.84     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P    3.65R    0.11  
Fulham          28   34   -8      -5.12    26.71    -8.42    59.29     6.13    -7.50     0.00     0.01     1.21     0.25P    2.11R    0.05  
Reading         28   34   -9      -4.38    29.05    -8.79    59.10     5.96    -8.62     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.21P    1.99R    0.04  
Huddersfield    28   34  -11       1.47    58.47    -1.11    55.51     5.87   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P    6.78R    0.25  
Charlton        28   33  -10       0.74    54.89    -1.46    54.19     5.72   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.35R    0.38  
Leeds_United    28   32   -9      -1.72    41.86    -1.50    54.21     5.81   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    9.67R    0.45  
Rotherham       28   30  -10       0.07    51.40     3.05    48.32     5.66   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.29R    3.41  
Brighton        28   29   -6     -10.48     8.35    -7.75    53.84     5.87    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    9.81R    0.43  
Millwall        28   27  -18      -1.66    42.03    -3.05    45.26     5.55   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.35R    9.47  
Wigan           28   22  -10     -16.22     1.49    -9.96    46.26     5.88   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.88R    8.10  
Blackpool       28   20  -28      -6.62    17.79   -10.16    36.59     5.38   -40.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.66R   77.16  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 February 2015, Bristol_City 2 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City     26   57  +28      10.47    91.80    11.51    92.24     6.41    39.89    47.66    76.72    99.96    83.78P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   55  +34       4.97    73.59    13.93    89.50     6.20    46.87    30.67    65.32    99.87    77.28P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          27   54  +25       6.04    78.16     8.62    87.94     6.18    36.80    20.30    50.58    99.75    66.84P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          27   47  +13       2.04    60.06     1.42    78.49     6.19    20.99     1.23     6.27    91.41    30.57P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield     27   39   +5       1.23    56.49     4.06    65.52     6.37     5.60     0.00     0.08    24.23     4.40P    0.60R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        25   39   +4       1.98    60.54    -0.15    72.17     6.57    10.36     0.11     0.74    63.16    14.89P    0.03R    0.00  
Rochdale         26   38  +12       0.78    54.11    10.09    65.95     6.64    12.42     0.02     0.14    28.51     5.19P    0.62R    0.02  
Bradford         26   37   +3       1.68    59.20     3.33    63.37     6.29     1.68     0.00     0.02    14.64     2.55P    1.44R    0.03  
Oldham           26   37   +0       2.99    65.95     2.53    62.30     6.41    -3.23     0.00     0.03    11.25     1.76P    2.58R    0.12  
Peterborough     27   37   +0      -4.31    29.49    -6.24    64.99     6.27     2.81     0.00     0.05    21.26     4.63P    0.80R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town   28   37   -1       4.28    71.23     6.77    58.70     5.92    -4.87     0.00     0.00     3.41     0.44P    6.50R    0.31  
Doncaster        26   36   -3       0.13    51.21    -3.61    63.73     6.41    -2.35     0.00     0.03    15.07     3.00P    1.69R    0.07  
Notts_County     27   35   -4      -0.29    48.97    -1.31    59.85     6.19    -5.79     0.00     0.01     5.23     0.88P    5.52R    0.27  
Port_Vale        28   35   -6       0.60    53.77     0.28    56.36     5.89   -11.20     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.19P   13.79R    0.95  
Walsall          27   34   -2      -2.84    35.73    -2.24    58.90     6.04    -3.24     0.00     0.00     3.85     0.69P    6.25R    0.35  
Scunthorpe       25   33   -4       1.75    59.82     1.20    59.91     6.73    -7.22     0.00     0.01     7.03     1.01P    7.06R    0.55  
Barnsley         26   32   -3      -4.73    27.59    -4.33    60.59     6.60    -1.39     0.00     0.00     8.34     1.58P    4.90R    0.30  
Gillingham       28   32   -8      -1.26    44.55     0.29    52.11     5.83   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   35.60R    5.01  
Coventry         28   31  -10      -4.88    27.37    -5.98    54.04     5.97   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.08P   24.55R    2.67  
Crewe            27   29  -24       3.01    66.99    -6.21    47.12     5.74   -36.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    72.15R   25.22  
Colchester       27   28  -11      -3.65    32.03    -2.86    50.62     6.08   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   45.65R    9.07  
Crawley_Town     28   27  -21      -3.25    33.98    -8.97    47.22     5.77   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    70.18R   23.11  
Leyton_Orient    27   26   -8     -13.80     3.70   -11.98    53.76     6.27    -5.61     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.18P   24.97R    3.52  
Yeovil           28   25  -19      -7.06    18.27   -10.15    46.13     5.86   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    75.14R   28.39  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2015, Accrington_Stanley 1 5 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Shrewsbury           28   54  +22       4.37    71.00     5.78    86.21     5.86    32.74    51.31    87.47    99.66    91.81P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   54  +12      11.81    93.44     6.22    81.96     5.96    17.03    18.04    62.61    97.48    71.24P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   53  +19       9.55    88.89    11.37    80.34     5.90    23.08    13.80    54.24    96.20    65.30P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   50  +13       9.26    88.48     7.25    78.77     6.22    17.19     8.86    42.03    92.04    54.24P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   50   +7       6.25    79.23    -0.98    78.22     5.84    12.33     6.77    36.21    91.19    51.93P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       28   46   +3       9.72    89.46     5.91    69.68     5.84     1.62     0.30     4.15    45.73    11.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Bury                 28   44   +6       1.46    57.42    -0.29    71.15     5.97     9.78     0.65     7.36    58.56    20.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            28   41   +2      -1.01    45.41    -3.54    68.48     6.05     6.25     0.16     3.48    40.37    13.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               29   41   -2       1.38    57.05    -1.82    63.56     5.69    -3.10     0.02     0.32    12.81     3.05P    0.12R    0.01  
Plymouth             28   40  +10       0.40    52.26     7.63    65.58     5.87    11.62     0.07     1.15    24.52     6.90P    0.04R    0.00  
Morecambe            28   38   +2       0.96    55.71     3.33    61.72     5.83     0.97     0.00     0.21     8.47     1.90P    0.35R    0.03  
Northampton          28   37   +6      -1.60    42.36     5.57    61.49     5.90     5.68     0.00     0.21     8.72     2.14P    0.45R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   37   +0       2.07    61.05     3.11    60.76     6.04    -3.47     0.00     0.17     6.87     1.45P    0.69R    0.10  
Cambridge_Utd        27   36   +9       0.03    50.85    10.38    61.40     6.19     8.21     0.01     0.34     9.63     2.33P    0.56R    0.07  
Oxford_Utd           28   33   -4      -4.65    27.83    -3.44    57.15     5.78    -4.62     0.00     0.02     1.82     0.47P    2.58R    0.42  
Accrington_Stanley   27   33  -12       0.96    55.81    -4.00    56.03     6.01   -16.62     0.00     0.02     1.26     0.25P    5.54R    1.26  
Tranmere             27   30   -3      -9.89     9.88    -7.47    56.78     6.21    -1.55     0.00     0.02     2.24     0.63P    3.89R    0.68  
Portsmouth           27   30   -5      -5.81    22.28    -3.58    56.19     6.17    -4.74     0.00     0.01     1.74     0.43P    4.90R    1.05  
Dag_&_Red            28   30   -9      -4.14    29.98    -2.96    51.66     5.81   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   16.09R    4.36  
Carlisle             28   30  -15      -5.19    26.11    -9.78    52.09     5.90   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P   16.21R    4.55  
Cheltenham           28   30  -15      -3.06    34.82    -7.47    50.44     5.76   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   23.47R    6.27  
York                 28   28   -6      -8.02    14.47    -3.44    52.33     5.79    -6.13     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   12.89R    3.39  
Mansfield            27   28  -13      -2.06    39.79    -3.28    49.65     5.90   -18.84     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   27.96R    8.85  
Hartlepool           28   21  -27      -8.84    11.24   -14.52    40.86     5.73   -34.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.27R   68.88  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2015, Dartford 2 2 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           32   65  +37       5.90    76.20    12.64    90.85     5.06    47.29    75.80    99.64    83.13P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   58  +16       0.94    53.72    -3.33    83.19     4.96    25.05     9.13    89.47    35.45P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     31   57  +16       9.77    87.96     8.77    80.73     5.22    20.86     4.24    77.23    18.02P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   56  +24       0.93    54.21     5.18    82.07     5.24    32.17     8.43    86.12    32.15P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   53  +13       3.85    67.63     2.64    76.61     5.35    17.68     1.17    48.69    10.97P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +15       1.20    55.71     8.81    69.02     5.19    16.10     0.02     8.07     1.41P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    32   49   +5       0.41    52.19    -2.31    69.68     5.20     7.23     0.02     8.41     1.59P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          29   48  +12       1.42    57.11     1.30    73.98     5.80    15.97     0.68    31.02     6.90P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   48   -1       4.86    71.98     0.70    66.76     5.18    -1.92     0.00     2.64     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        29   47  +13       4.39    70.01     8.92    70.20     5.93    12.75     0.13    13.94     2.43P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        29   47   +9       1.81    58.85     0.57    72.76     5.75    12.70     0.37    23.71     5.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   46  +11       1.99    59.49     9.05    66.96     5.40    11.70     0.00     4.57     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Chester          33   46   -8       8.71    85.05     4.86    60.80     4.71   -12.86     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Torquay          32   43   +7      -9.14    14.29    -5.82    68.23     5.09    16.43     0.00     5.38     1.44P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       31   42  -10       6.91    79.63     2.10    58.02     5.15   -17.26     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.13R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   30   39   +1      -3.79    32.17    -1.69    61.10     5.38     1.58     0.00     0.30     0.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   38   -5      -2.01    40.28    -5.71    62.38     5.74    -3.26     0.00     0.68     0.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot        31   33  -11      -8.84    14.15   -10.26    53.62     5.22   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.35R    0.01  
Welling          32   33  -14      -4.49    29.66    -4.18    48.84     4.95   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.84R    0.23  
Southport        29   31  -17       0.23    52.27    -2.70    50.10     5.49   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.75R    0.37  
Alfreton_Town    30   27  -30      -2.43    38.62    -9.56    44.75     5.38   -37.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.62R    3.43  
Dartford         31   24  -25      -6.24    20.99    -5.24    40.07     5.07   -32.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.99R   14.20  
Nuneaton         33   23  -36      -8.01    15.03   -13.81    35.20     4.50   -44.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.70R   51.74  
AFC_Telford      30   22  -22      -7.47    17.43    -0.92    37.16     5.29   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.59R   30.02