Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 31 January 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2015, Chelsea 1 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          23   53  +32       5.12    78.59     5.41    85.74     4.76    51.43    76.18    97.34    99.47    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   48  +23       0.55    52.29    -3.00    80.85     4.71    43.93    22.29    86.53    96.25    99.03    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   43  +17      -0.03    49.09    -0.60    69.78     5.21    26.45     0.55     5.51    33.16    59.45    93.14     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   42  +21       6.55    83.50    13.27    68.98     5.35    28.23     0.47     4.76    27.84    54.55    90.87     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   40   +5       4.28    73.25    -0.70    62.69     5.29     7.89     0.01     0.33     3.91    11.94    51.31     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   39  +14       0.15    50.50     0.57    69.77     5.33    27.67     0.48     5.15    34.42    60.05    92.65     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   38   +6      -3.52    29.94    -9.23    63.08     5.23    13.14     0.02     0.38     4.68    13.89    56.91     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         23   36   +8       4.20    73.20     8.13    55.80     5.15     6.37     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.97    10.45     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            23   32   -2       3.46    70.23     2.77    50.93     5.15    -4.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.63     0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          22   30   -4       1.31    58.32    -0.78    50.31     5.46    -6.72     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     1.65     0.09R    0.00  
Newcastle        23   30   -6       2.77    66.96     1.87    48.24     5.22   -10.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.28R    0.01  
Everton          23   26   -3      -8.85     9.66    -7.35    48.87     5.26     0.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.82     0.21R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   23   23   -9      -1.03    44.82     2.68    38.17     4.86   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.55R    2.79  
Sunderland       23   23  -12      -1.71    40.83    -1.16    40.08     4.94   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.22R    1.42  
West_Brom        23   22  -12      -4.13    27.02    -3.17    38.52     4.97   -18.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.09R    2.99  
Aston_Villa      22   22  -14      -0.62    47.13    -2.94    38.08     4.96   -23.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.57R    3.68  
Burnley          23   20  -17      -2.65    35.23    -2.48    32.66     4.65   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.38R   24.13  
Hull             23   19  -13      -4.12    26.37    -0.15    33.92     4.80   -21.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.51R   15.01  
QPR              23   19  -18      -2.55    35.39    -0.82    32.17     4.79   -30.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.66R   28.27  
Leicester        23   17  -16      -6.29    16.92    -2.32    33.01     5.03   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.39R   21.68  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2015, Birmingham 0 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Bournemouth     28   54  +31       6.79    80.37    17.56    84.02     6.03    39.22    26.05    50.15    96.07    61.64P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   54  +27       3.37    66.04     8.34    86.68     5.86    39.17    42.92    67.47    98.48    77.24P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   53  +25       5.81    77.22    12.12    82.91     5.78    32.45    17.26    39.41    94.82    54.75P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   51  +19       6.76    80.46    10.44    79.48     5.96    24.58     6.65    18.83    84.16    33.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       28   49   +7      10.74    90.90     7.51    74.29     6.09     7.69     1.29     4.52    52.51    12.08P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         28   47  +23      -1.33    42.93     7.57    77.31     6.00    31.74     4.04    12.75    75.39    30.24P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   45   -2       5.15    74.23    -4.13    69.65     5.95    -1.95     0.19     0.87    22.48     4.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Norwich         28   44  +16      -3.56    32.49     2.13    74.82     6.02    25.15     1.59     5.88    60.59    22.25P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       28   39   +0      -0.06    50.10    -0.74    65.28     5.96     2.21     0.02     0.11     8.12     1.64P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   38   -4       2.55    63.57    -0.53    60.47     5.72    -6.97     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.23P    0.83R    0.01  
Birmingham      28   37   -8       2.94    65.43    -1.43    58.93     5.78   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.13P    1.77R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest   28   34   -3      -3.86    31.36    -1.72    58.07     5.98    -4.04     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.14P    2.65R    0.05  
Cardiff         28   34   -6      -3.11    35.31    -3.76    60.00     6.05    -4.05     0.00     0.01     1.40     0.27P    1.47R    0.03  
Bolton          28   34   -6      -3.42    33.49    -4.43    56.95     5.82    -8.85     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P    3.78R    0.12  
Fulham          28   34   -8      -4.94    27.28    -8.12    59.13     6.14    -7.78     0.00     0.01     1.17     0.26P    2.27R    0.09  
Reading         28   34   -9      -4.38    29.31    -8.80    59.07     6.01    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.19P    2.05R    0.06  
Huddersfield    28   34  -11       1.43    58.38    -1.15    55.54     5.91   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    6.80R    0.27  
Charlton        28   33  -10       0.86    55.59    -1.31    54.18     5.69   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    9.13R    0.40  
Leeds_United    28   32   -9      -1.72    41.74    -1.56    54.20     5.82   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    9.48R    0.41  
Rotherham       28   30  -10       0.01    51.16     2.92    48.35     5.62   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.20R    3.33  
Brighton        28   29   -6     -10.48     8.51    -7.70    53.87     5.90    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    9.83R    0.42  
Millwall        28   27  -18      -1.68    42.07    -3.07    45.26     5.55   -27.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.25R    9.62  
Wigan           28   22  -10     -16.30     1.33   -10.08    46.28     5.86   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.73R    7.65  
Blackpool       28   20  -28      -6.51    18.30   -10.05    36.60     5.38   -40.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.70R   77.51  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2015, Barnsley 2 1 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

MK_Dons          27   55  +34       4.93    73.67    13.96    89.58     6.23    46.97    34.41    67.20    99.88    78.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     25   54  +26       9.73    90.41    10.84    90.95     6.62    38.34    41.17    71.35    99.88    80.03P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          27   54  +25       5.96    77.66     8.53    87.95     6.19    36.87    22.61    52.88    99.74    68.31P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          27   47  +13       1.85    59.36     1.15    78.69     6.19    21.30     1.65     7.35    91.81    31.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield     27   39   +5       1.24    56.56     4.11    65.50     6.37     5.52     0.00     0.06    23.89     4.30P    0.70R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        25   39   +4       2.03    61.04    -0.11    72.14     6.56    10.32     0.13     0.86    62.58    14.99P    0.05R    0.00  
Rochdale         26   38  +12       0.70    53.74     9.96    65.99     6.65    12.50     0.02     0.16    28.35     5.21P    0.56R    0.01  
Bradford         26   37   +3       1.83    60.12     3.51    63.31     6.30     1.57     0.00     0.04    14.22     2.40P    1.54R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town   27   37   +1       4.70    73.36     7.35    59.81     6.10    -3.30     0.00     0.00     5.26     0.70P    4.83R    0.19  
Oldham           26   37   +0       3.16    66.39     2.78    62.16     6.38    -3.43     0.00     0.02    10.26     1.56P    2.65R    0.09  
Peterborough     27   37   +0      -4.44    28.63    -6.44    65.08     6.22     2.95     0.00     0.04    21.14     4.64P    0.78R    0.01  
Doncaster        26   36   -3       0.38    52.52    -3.31    63.56     6.47    -2.56     0.01     0.03    14.50     2.81P    1.82R    0.07  
Notts_County     27   35   -4      -0.18    49.64    -1.16    59.79     6.21    -5.90     0.00     0.00     5.03     0.76P    5.63R    0.28  
Port_Vale        28   35   -6       0.52    53.39     0.23    56.38     5.91   -11.19     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.19P   13.93R    0.92  
Walsall          26   33   -2      -2.29    38.09    -1.94    59.49     6.24    -2.97     0.00     0.00     5.01     0.97P    5.68R    0.32  
Scunthorpe       25   33   -4       1.88    60.52     1.42    59.79     6.77    -7.46     0.00     0.01     6.83     0.99P    7.50R    0.60  
Barnsley         26   32   -3      -4.95    26.34    -4.73    60.78     6.62    -1.10     0.00     0.01     8.54     1.74P    4.87R    0.29  
Gillingham       27   31   -8      -1.00    45.45     0.23    52.08     6.02   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P   36.52R    5.45  
Coventry         28   31  -10      -5.02    26.59    -6.15    54.10     6.02   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.08P   24.21R    2.60  
Crewe            27   29  -24       2.97    67.14    -6.34    47.17     5.75   -36.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   72.22R   24.91  
Colchester       27   28  -11      -3.51    33.05    -2.66    50.50     6.07   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   46.62R    9.65  
Crawley_Town     28   27  -21      -3.25    34.08    -8.95    47.28     5.72   -27.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    70.04R   22.36  
Leyton_Orient    27   26   -8     -13.82     3.79   -12.03    53.76     6.26    -5.57     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.14P   24.90R    3.55  
Yeovil           28   25  -19      -7.12    17.96   -10.24    46.16     5.87   -23.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   74.95R   28.66  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2015, Accrington_Stanley 1 5 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Shrewsbury           28   54  +22       4.34    70.91     5.67    86.25     5.87    32.81    51.51    87.51    99.70    91.82P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   54  +12      11.65    93.19     5.97    82.11     5.94    17.25    18.63    63.60    97.44    71.99P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   53  +19       9.64    89.54    11.56    80.26     5.88    22.97    13.34    53.57    96.00    64.39P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   50  +13       9.16    88.28     7.09    78.82     6.17    17.25     8.75    42.45    92.30    54.87P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   50   +7       6.40    79.76    -0.80    78.16     5.82    12.22     6.62    35.68    91.31    51.57P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       28   46   +3       9.81    89.42     6.05    69.62     5.80     1.52     0.23     3.97    45.22    11.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Bury                 28   44   +6       1.21    56.18    -0.63    71.23     5.95     9.90     0.63     7.32    58.82    20.93P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            28   41   +2      -1.15    44.28    -3.77    68.54     6.08     6.34     0.21     3.58    41.09    13.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               29   41   -2       1.41    57.45    -1.77    63.58     5.70    -3.08     0.01     0.32    12.87     2.89P    0.13R    0.01  
Plymouth             28   40  +10       0.33    52.09     7.52    65.64     5.84    11.75     0.05     1.12    24.96     6.97P    0.03R    0.01  
Morecambe            28   38   +2       1.08    56.12     3.52    61.59     5.78     0.81     0.01     0.18     7.96     1.88P    0.39R    0.05  
Northampton          28   37   +6      -1.51    42.52     5.70    61.50     5.88     5.65     0.00     0.17     8.63     2.10P    0.41R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   37   +0       2.28    62.29     3.42    60.65     6.01    -3.64     0.01     0.15     6.53     1.34P    0.74R    0.07  
Cambridge_Utd        27   36   +9       0.12    51.18    10.47    61.46     6.20     8.29     0.01     0.30     9.79     2.32P    0.53R    0.08  
Oxford_Utd           28   33   -4      -4.55    27.91    -3.22    57.09     5.82    -4.70     0.00     0.01     1.71     0.40P    2.65R    0.51  
Accrington_Stanley   27   33  -12       0.76    54.75    -4.32    56.14     6.04   -16.51     0.00     0.01     1.27     0.23P    5.42R    1.24  
Tranmere             27   30   -3      -9.84    10.28    -7.37    56.73     6.22    -1.66     0.00     0.03     2.22     0.66P    3.75R    0.75  
Portsmouth           27   30   -5      -5.87    22.20    -3.60    56.10     6.15    -4.87     0.00     0.01     1.49     0.32P    4.98R    1.17  
Dag_&_Red            28   30   -9      -4.25    29.29    -3.11    51.72     5.74   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   15.83R    4.19  
Carlisle             28   30  -15      -5.21    26.12    -9.81    52.10     5.96   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   16.46R    4.59  
Cheltenham           28   30  -15      -2.97    35.21    -7.34    50.35     5.70   -21.14     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   24.03R    6.46  
York                 28   28   -6      -7.93    14.68    -3.35    52.37     5.79    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P   12.68R    3.39  
Mansfield            27   28  -13      -2.13    39.19    -3.35    49.68     5.89   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   27.63R    8.55  
Hartlepool           28   21  -27      -8.79    11.29   -14.52    40.84     5.69   -33.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.33R   68.89  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2015, Dartford 2 2 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           32   65  +37       5.91    75.75    12.64    90.89     5.07    47.37    76.11    99.56    83.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   58  +16       0.91    53.96    -3.35    83.26     4.96    25.15     9.21    89.75    35.85P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     31   57  +16       9.79    88.18     8.81    80.75     5.23    20.86     4.36    77.16    18.37P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   56  +24       1.18    55.23     5.57    81.94     5.26    32.00     7.89    86.10    31.24P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   53  +13       3.74    67.28     2.54    76.62     5.36    17.70     1.19    48.40    10.84P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +15       1.31    56.21     9.03    68.99     5.18    16.07     0.01     7.92     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    32   49   +5       0.33    51.73    -2.47    69.77     5.19     7.32     0.03     8.40     1.71P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          29   48  +12       1.43    57.03     1.33    73.94     5.84    15.90     0.72    30.93     6.94P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   48   -1       4.80    71.70     0.57    66.75     5.18    -1.94     0.01     2.63     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        29   47  +13       4.54    70.64     9.15    70.12     5.90    12.61     0.15    13.56     2.41P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        29   47   +9       1.69    58.48     0.42    72.81     5.70    12.77     0.32    24.20     5.00P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   46  +11       2.15    60.03     9.21    66.88     5.45    11.58     0.01     4.51     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Chester          33   46   -8       8.52    84.96     4.59    60.89     4.72   -12.75     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Torquay          32   43   +7      -9.33    14.02    -6.03    68.29     5.10    16.56     0.00     5.77     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       31   42  -10       7.17    80.71     2.46    57.90     5.13   -17.45     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.13R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   30   39   +1      -4.08    30.86    -2.08    61.17     5.36     1.73     0.00     0.30     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   38   -5      -2.05    40.11    -5.78    62.36     5.73    -3.28     0.00     0.66     0.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot        31   33  -11      -8.83    14.04   -10.17    53.59     5.21   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    0.02  
Welling          32   33  -14      -4.38    30.30    -3.98    48.80     4.92   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.62R    0.16  
Southport        29   31  -17       0.11    51.62    -2.88    50.23     5.50   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.52R    0.32  
Alfreton_Town    30   27  -30      -2.62    37.54    -9.90    44.85     5.38   -37.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.50R    3.39  
Dartford         31   24  -25      -6.22    21.19    -5.24    40.00     5.11   -32.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.85R   14.22  
Nuneaton         33   23  -36      -7.91    15.23   -13.61    35.13     4.50   -44.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.83R   52.33  
AFC_Telford      30   22  -22      -7.39    17.81    -0.83    37.14     5.26   -34.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.08R   29.57