Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 23 January 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 January 2015, Everton 0 0 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          22   52  +32       5.60    81.82     5.50    86.42     5.03    51.95    76.91    97.67    99.56    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   47  +23       0.68    53.10    -3.52    80.92     4.94    43.40    21.93    86.70    96.31    99.03    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   42  +21       6.63    83.98    13.38    68.96     5.39    28.17     0.37     4.84    30.01    57.98    92.68     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   40  +15      -0.45    46.61    -0.62    69.01     5.35    25.86     0.35     4.85    30.20    56.97    92.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   39  +14       0.01    49.65     0.36    69.80     5.35    27.75     0.43     5.47    37.12    63.83    94.20     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   37   +2       3.59    70.54    -2.18    60.65     5.51     4.20     0.00     0.17     2.30     7.95    41.31     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         22   36  +10       4.79    76.47     8.91    56.88     5.40     7.80     0.00     0.02     0.63     2.48    19.39     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        22   35   +4      -4.19    26.20    -9.76    61.82     5.47    11.68     0.01     0.28     3.85    11.59    54.29     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          22   30   -4       1.30    58.46    -0.78    50.37     5.48    -6.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17     2.52     0.22R    0.01  
Stoke            22   29   -4       2.67    66.92     1.96    49.65     5.35    -5.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.66     0.28R    0.02  
Newcastle        22   27   -9       2.09    63.57     0.43    45.92     5.39   -14.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.38     2.00R    0.14  
Everton          22   23   -4      -9.99     6.63    -7.64    47.46     5.49    -0.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.89     0.87R    0.07  
Crystal_Palace   22   23   -8      -0.11    50.48     3.19    39.44     5.07   -16.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    16.15R    2.76  
West_Brom        22   22   -9      -3.59    29.34    -1.50    40.26     5.23   -15.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    13.47R    2.30  
Aston_Villa      22   22  -14      -0.62    47.35    -2.93    38.00     4.93   -23.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.68R    5.28  
Sunderland       22   20  -14      -2.70    34.50    -2.28    38.56     5.15   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.52R    4.84  
Burnley          22   20  -15      -2.20    37.69    -1.78    33.91     4.90   -28.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.36R   22.19  
Hull             22   19  -10      -3.53    29.18     1.61    35.87     5.07   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.61R   11.21  
QPR              22   19  -16      -2.08    38.05    -0.35    33.28     5.02   -28.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.87R   26.98  
Leicester        22   17  -14      -5.81    18.37    -1.98    33.46     5.10   -23.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.97R   24.18  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 January 2015, Brighton 3 2 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Bournemouth     27   51  +29       5.75    77.00    16.42    82.34     6.25    37.11    23.49    43.63    91.66    55.19P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   50  +24       4.41    71.70    11.47    81.26     6.05    31.41    16.44    34.18    89.28    49.70P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         27   50  +19       7.31    82.84    10.63    80.36     6.20    25.28    12.49    27.77    85.30    40.46P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   48  +23       1.75    58.88     6.77    83.64     6.35    35.52    29.97    50.79    93.92    64.05P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   46   +7      10.30    90.86     7.20    72.99     6.43     6.02     1.67     4.80    41.53    10.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         26   44  +20      -0.25    48.38     6.81    77.42     6.32    29.24     7.08    16.78    73.32    32.16P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   43  +17      -1.85    40.07     2.97    78.07     6.47    28.49     8.15    19.38    76.14    36.48P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   43   -2       6.16    78.94    -3.73    70.66     6.40    -1.59     0.62     2.22    27.24     6.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   37   -2       3.70    70.03     0.76    62.72     6.11    -4.29     0.02     0.08     3.65     0.71P    0.28R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   36   +1      -0.75    46.44    -0.46    64.81     6.36     2.79     0.05     0.23     7.68     1.74P    0.17R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   35   -8       3.18    66.80    -1.87    59.19     6.13   -13.57     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.14P    1.71R    0.05  
Nott'm_Forest   27   34   -2      -2.59    37.27    -0.88    60.43     6.17    -1.59     0.00     0.02     1.85     0.36P    0.98R    0.02  
Cardiff         27   34   -4      -2.51    37.73    -2.89    61.59     6.29    -1.78     0.01     0.04     2.62     0.56P    0.83R    0.01  
Fulham          27   34   -7      -4.17    30.27    -8.08    60.57     6.37    -6.66     0.00     0.04     2.13     0.50P    1.22R    0.03  
Bolton          26   33   -4      -2.17    39.08    -3.31    59.26     6.24    -5.86     0.00     0.02     1.18     0.23P    1.67R    0.04  
Charlton        26   31  -10       1.45    59.13    -1.35    54.76     6.10   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    7.69R    0.29  
Huddersfield    26   31  -11       1.07    56.73    -1.22    54.97     6.29   -16.60     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P    8.05R    0.39  
Reading         26   30  -11      -4.81    26.41    -9.46    58.06     6.43   -10.38     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.16P    3.22R    0.12  
Brighton        27   29   -5      -9.26    10.87    -6.91    55.76     6.10    -3.65     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    4.98R    0.15  
Leeds_United    27   29  -10      -3.25    33.74    -2.36    52.15     6.01   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   14.74R    0.80  
Rotherham       26   26  -12      -0.72    47.24     1.60    46.07     5.93   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.68R    5.99  
Millwall        26   23  -19      -2.93    34.50    -3.63    42.82     5.93   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.32R   15.53  
Wigan           26   21   -9     -14.83     1.98    -9.37    48.26     6.31    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.32R    3.64  
Blackpool       26   17  -24      -8.51    10.72    -9.12    35.57     5.70   -37.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.13R   72.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2015, Doncaster 0 0 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Swindon          26   54  +27       6.77    81.39     9.63    89.94     6.34    39.81    33.76    65.72    99.83    77.27P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     25   54  +26       9.75    90.83    10.84    90.94     6.57    38.29    40.07    69.94    99.88    78.92P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          24   48  +27       5.14    76.12    11.79    87.52     6.77    41.34    22.52    50.48    99.42    66.62P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          26   47  +14       3.36    67.17     2.32    80.94     6.40    23.50     3.53    12.98    95.52    37.97P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         25   37  +12       1.15    56.33    10.01    66.50     6.86    12.73     0.03     0.23    31.98     5.85P    0.63R    0.02  
Bradford         25   36   +3       2.28    62.71     3.65    63.96     6.60     1.97     0.00     0.05    17.95     3.09P    1.56R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd        24   36   +2       0.76    54.43    -1.51    69.84     6.79     7.38     0.06     0.44    49.01    10.95P    0.14R    0.00  
Chesterfield     25   35   +2       1.28    57.02     2.99    63.86     6.73     2.05     0.01     0.05    18.09     3.26P    1.81R    0.08  
Notts_County     25   35   +0       1.17    56.67     0.74    63.37     6.61    -0.60     0.00     0.03    15.62     2.66P    1.96R    0.06  
Doncaster        25   35   -3       0.56    53.46    -3.58    63.86     6.62    -2.60     0.00     0.03    16.48     3.21P    1.66R    0.06  
Port_Vale        26   35   -4       2.77    64.59     1.46    59.55     6.30    -8.58     0.00     0.00     5.11     0.71P    6.22R    0.31  
Fleetwood_Town   26   34   +0       3.56    69.10     7.19    58.19     6.30    -4.33     0.00     0.00     3.69     0.51P    8.68R    0.57  
Oldham           24   34   -2       3.42    68.59     1.41    61.64     6.76    -5.79     0.00     0.02    10.36     1.49P    4.18R    0.20  
Walsall          26   33   -2      -2.42    37.92    -2.14    59.48     6.25    -2.97     0.00     0.01     5.36     1.01P    5.54R    0.27  
Peterborough     25   31   -2      -6.73    18.45    -7.08    61.99     6.70     1.20     0.00     0.01    12.19     2.56P    3.24R    0.14  
Barnsley         24   29   -2      -5.44    23.60    -4.13    60.47     7.07    -0.26     0.00     0.02     9.47     1.97P    6.09R    0.46  
Scunthorpe       23   29   -7       1.17    57.15    -0.83    56.58     7.11   -13.63     0.00     0.00     3.47     0.48P   17.47R    2.10  
Coventry         26   29  -10      -4.33    28.64    -6.22    54.92     6.42   -12.46     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.20P   21.11R    2.38  
Gillingham       26   28   -9      -2.26    38.85    -0.33    50.23     6.20   -17.34     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   47.54R    8.91  
Leyton_Orient    25   26   -3     -12.25     5.02    -8.82    58.49     6.70     2.40     0.00     0.00     4.99     1.22P    8.89R    0.77  
Crewe            25   26  -20       1.01    57.06    -5.17    46.43     6.14   -33.41     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   73.47R   27.52  
Colchester       25   24  -13      -4.44    27.55    -4.06    48.11     6.43   -20.21     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   60.77R   17.27  
Crawley_Town     25   24  -18      -3.56    31.65    -8.04    47.83     6.35   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   64.26R   19.44  
Yeovil           26   24  -18      -6.16    20.60   -10.11    47.67     6.31   -23.39     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   64.80R   19.37  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 1 3 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Wycombe              26   51  +19      10.62    92.34    11.83    81.76     6.30    24.06    25.67    65.87    95.72    73.25P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   50  +11      10.95    93.01     5.87    80.68     6.31    16.05    18.48    56.50    93.27    65.23P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   48  +20       2.28    61.70     5.42    83.30     6.25    31.26    36.35    75.98    97.53    83.66P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                25   46  +12       8.57    87.87     7.04    77.89     6.58    16.73    10.29    39.85    85.77    51.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   46   +7      10.84    92.44     7.57    72.63     6.23     5.88     2.06    13.00    59.34    21.68P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   44   +5       3.85    70.08    -1.80    74.89     6.15    10.20     3.76    21.68    73.66    36.22P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            26   41   +5       0.47    52.66    -2.37    71.95     6.45    10.36     1.87    12.43    57.27    25.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter               27   40   -1       2.68    64.04    -1.58    65.37     6.12    -1.99     0.11     1.34    17.62     4.88P    0.08R    0.00  
Plymouth             26   39  +11       2.30    62.63     8.80    67.93     6.14    13.52     0.35     3.73    33.32    10.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 25   38   +5      -0.09    49.89    -0.72    69.48     6.55     9.17     0.87     6.90    41.99    16.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            26   36   +2       1.74    59.94     3.52    62.47     6.16     1.04     0.04     0.57     9.38     2.30P    0.32R    0.03  
Cambridge_Utd        25   35  +10       1.43    58.17    10.89    63.51     6.59     9.83     0.10     1.27    14.83     4.22P    0.30R    0.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   33   -1       1.30    57.68     2.92    59.32     6.44    -4.78     0.01     0.18     4.17     1.00P    1.60R    0.22  
Accrington_Stanley   24   33   -6       3.13    67.55    -1.11    61.40     6.73    -8.69     0.03     0.53     7.99     1.93P    1.02R    0.13  
Northampton          26   31   -1      -2.57    37.03     1.94    56.84     6.26    -3.41     0.00     0.04     1.85     0.44P    3.32R    0.46  
Portsmouth           25   29   -4      -4.85    25.20    -3.58    57.79     6.56    -3.94     0.01     0.08     2.80     0.74P    3.14R    0.50  
Oxford_Utd           26   29   -6      -5.22    24.32    -4.46    55.06     6.13    -7.87     0.00     0.01     0.73     0.17P    5.91R    0.99  
Cheltenham           26   29  -13      -2.22    38.59    -6.79    52.04     6.09   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   15.44R    2.71  
York                 26   27   -5      -6.68    18.20    -2.85    53.70     6.14    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.11P    8.82R    1.59  
Mansfield            25   27  -12      -0.91    45.93    -2.96    50.98     6.27   -18.52     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   20.85R    4.85  
Carlisle             26   27  -15      -5.57    23.82   -10.08    51.74     6.31   -19.35     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   18.07R    3.96  
Tranmere             25   26   -4     -10.53     7.58    -7.54    55.89     6.63    -2.05     0.00     0.04     1.67     0.53P    5.68R    1.02  
Dag_&_Red            26   26  -11      -4.86    25.81    -4.14    49.67     6.10   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   25.78R    6.16  
Hartlepool           26   17  -28     -10.26     6.45   -15.81    38.47     6.03   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.65R   77.32  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2015, Aldershot 0 1 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           31   62  +33       5.84    76.18    11.26    89.79     5.25    44.16    70.44    99.34    79.07P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   57  +16       1.51    56.92    -2.95    84.32     5.18    26.05    17.29    92.60    43.34P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   54  +13       9.14    86.90     7.29    79.07     5.45    17.79     3.60    67.47    15.64P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   50  +21      -0.92    44.98     4.14    79.25     5.72    29.81     5.52    71.90    25.43P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   50  +12       2.76    62.90     2.54    76.04     5.55    18.29     1.43    47.57    11.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    31   49   +6       1.50    57.20    -1.75    71.55     5.45     8.93     0.18    17.41     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        28   47  +14       5.45    74.36     9.52    71.54     6.21    13.68     0.46    22.52     4.26P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   46  +12       2.99    63.77     9.37    68.19     5.72    12.37     0.04     8.72     1.63P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           31   46  +12       0.86    54.23     7.94    67.91     5.43    13.87     0.03     7.10     1.40P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          28   45  +11       0.40    52.01     1.28    72.52     6.06    15.23     0.62    25.96     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   45   +5       3.88    68.69     3.28    68.91     5.86     5.74     0.06     9.92     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        28   44   +8       0.65    53.18     0.32    71.28     5.96    11.92     0.31    19.42     4.39P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay          31   42   +7      -8.90    14.95    -6.03    68.70     5.34    16.64     0.03     8.46     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       31   42  -10       7.03    80.26     2.25    58.02     5.18   -17.25     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.22R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   30   39   +1      -3.81    32.61    -1.65    60.92     5.41     1.34     0.00     0.37     0.08P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham          28   37   -5      -1.74    41.56    -5.77    62.66     5.99    -3.40     0.00     1.16     0.23P    0.05R    0.00  
Chester          30   37  -15       5.68    77.27     1.00    54.13     5.31   -22.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.98R    0.03  
Aldershot        31   33  -11      -8.71    14.48   -10.03    53.61     5.26   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.15R    0.02  
Welling          31   33  -12      -3.48    34.19    -2.77    50.77     5.22   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.71R    0.18  
Southport        27   31  -12       0.90    56.04    -1.10    52.38     5.91   -19.29     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.57R    0.25  
Alfreton_Town    29   27  -27      -2.40    38.76    -8.96    45.83     5.56   -34.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.12R    3.61  
Dartford         30   23  -25      -5.98    21.83    -5.51    39.66     5.26   -33.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.37R   21.28  
Nuneaton         31   23  -33      -6.76    18.66   -12.99    36.79     4.83   -43.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.37R   43.95  
AFC_Telford      29   22  -21      -6.64    20.41    -0.69    38.12     5.55   -34.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.41R   30.69