Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 18 January 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 January 2015, Man_City 0 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          22   52  +32       5.64    81.93     5.49    86.42     5.00    52.00    77.49    97.64    99.53    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   47  +23       0.86    54.25    -3.24    80.84     4.91    43.33    21.47    86.48    96.20    98.97    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      22   42  +21       6.51    83.58    13.20    69.02     5.40    28.20     0.33     5.07    30.02    58.51    92.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   40  +15      -0.41    46.80    -0.53    68.97     5.37    25.81     0.31     4.79    29.98    56.55    92.48     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   39  +14       0.06    49.92     0.40    69.86     5.33    27.82     0.39     5.57    37.49    64.28    94.39     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   37   +2       3.67    70.97    -2.10    60.61     5.52     4.17     0.00     0.17     2.47     7.87    40.90     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         22   36  +10       4.66    75.80     8.70    56.93     5.35     7.88     0.00     0.03     0.61     2.39    19.35     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   35   +4      -4.12    26.68    -9.65    61.79     5.44    11.66     0.01     0.24     3.67    11.29    53.64     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          22   30   -4       1.15    57.41    -1.06    50.47     5.45    -6.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12     2.48     0.18R    0.00  
Stoke            22   29   -4       2.61    66.59     1.87    49.72     5.37    -5.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.75     0.22R    0.01  
Newcastle        22   27   -9       2.08    63.48     0.41    45.88     5.39   -14.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.41     1.89R    0.14  
Crystal_Palace   22   23   -8       0.02    51.52     3.38    39.33     5.05   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.38R    2.82  
Everton          21   22   -4      -9.41     7.33    -7.35    48.71     5.71     0.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.72     0.64R    0.06  
Aston_Villa      22   22  -14      -0.62    47.29    -2.90    38.03     4.96   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.59R    5.27  
West_Brom        21   21   -9      -3.66    28.39    -2.00    39.97     5.38   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    15.43R    2.98  
Sunderland       22   20  -14      -2.66    34.80    -2.12    38.51     5.15   -19.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    22.45R    4.90  
Burnley          22   20  -15      -2.22    37.58    -1.81    33.92     4.91   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.23R   21.74  
Hull             22   19  -10      -3.42    29.93     1.78    35.83     5.09   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.83R   11.23  
QPR              22   19  -16      -2.09    38.05    -0.26    33.25     5.01   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.58R   27.09  
Leicester        22   17  -14      -5.98    17.52    -2.22    33.55     5.17   -23.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.58R   23.75  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2015, Brighton 0 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Bournemouth     26   51  +30       6.71    81.37    16.74    84.43     6.46    39.26    32.32    53.94    94.80    63.97P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         26   50  +20       8.39    86.64    11.23    81.79     6.35    26.41    15.84    33.47    88.96    46.15P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   48  +23       1.72    58.59     6.76    83.68     6.31    35.55    26.58    48.42    93.77    62.25P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   47  +23       3.51    67.71    11.50    80.01     6.19    30.95    10.81    25.10    84.45    41.19P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   46   +7      10.22    90.83     7.08    73.07     6.45     6.17     1.39     4.34    41.28    10.08P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         26   44  +20      -0.18    48.64     6.91    77.28     6.43    29.02     5.89    15.09    71.72    30.26P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   43  +17      -1.84    40.07     2.94    78.09     6.43    28.49     6.54    17.39    75.56    34.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   43   -2       6.24    79.46    -3.66    70.68     6.35    -1.55     0.54     1.85    26.79     6.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   37   -2       3.69    69.97     0.81    62.64     6.12    -4.40     0.01     0.07     3.53     0.62P    0.26R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +1      -0.77    46.35    -0.49    64.88     6.37     2.86     0.03     0.17     7.62     1.66P    0.12R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   35   -8       3.26    67.42    -1.81    59.10     6.14   -13.69     0.00     0.01     0.98     0.15P    1.56R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest   26   34   -1      -1.47    42.65    -0.40    61.54     6.39    -0.99     0.01     0.04     2.95     0.60P    0.63R    0.01  
Cardiff         26   34   -3      -1.76    41.40    -2.83    62.61     6.45    -1.25     0.01     0.07     3.83     0.86P    0.45R    0.00  
Bolton          26   33   -4      -2.18    39.05    -3.33    59.28     6.24    -5.81     0.00     0.01     1.21     0.23P    1.40R    0.03  
Fulham          26   31   -8      -5.21    25.27    -8.17    59.03     6.57    -7.53     0.01     0.02     1.33     0.27P    2.11R    0.08  
Charlton        26   31  -10       1.47    59.05    -1.32    54.73     6.12   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    7.00R    0.32  
Huddersfield    26   31  -11       1.19    57.59    -1.09    54.85     6.26   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    7.24R    0.29  
Reading         26   30  -11      -4.76    26.80    -9.33    57.96     6.42   -10.49     0.00     0.01     0.76     0.14P    2.78R    0.10  
Brighton        26   26   -6     -10.70     6.96    -7.68    53.99     6.26    -4.79     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P    7.98R    0.41  
Leeds_United    26   26  -11      -4.72    26.39    -3.07    49.95     6.20   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   23.42R    1.99  
Rotherham       26   26  -12      -0.89    46.20     1.37    46.23     6.03   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.65R    5.75  
Millwall        26   23  -19      -2.83    35.38    -3.49    42.80     5.89   -30.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.18R   15.36  
Wigan           26   21   -9     -14.79     1.83    -9.34    48.30     6.31    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.74R    3.54  
Blackpool       26   17  -24      -8.59    10.39    -9.34    35.59     5.70   -37.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.48R   72.08  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2015, Colchester 0 2 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Swindon          26   54  +27       6.80    81.31     9.67    89.92     6.34    39.81    33.20    64.21    99.86    75.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     25   54  +26       9.70    90.35    10.80    90.94     6.59    38.32    39.41    68.88    99.88    78.35P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          24   48  +27       5.11    75.51    11.79    87.48     6.80    41.27    22.17    49.16    99.36    65.45P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          25   46  +14       3.91    69.77     2.54    82.01     6.61    24.60     5.12    16.86    96.16    41.08P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         25   37  +12       1.28    56.74    10.19    66.56     6.84    12.79     0.04     0.22    31.61     5.97P    0.67R    0.02  
Bradford         25   36   +3       2.32    62.70     3.66    63.97     6.52     1.99     0.00     0.04    16.79     2.83P    1.39R    0.04  
Sheff_Utd        24   36   +2       0.82    54.66    -1.46    69.88     6.78     7.47     0.05     0.44    48.16    10.98P    0.18R    0.00  
Chesterfield     25   35   +2       1.32    57.52     3.01    63.84     6.74     1.94     0.00     0.03    17.57     2.88P    1.87R    0.06  
Port_Vale        26   35   -4       2.75    64.77     1.45    59.50     6.30    -8.65     0.00     0.00     4.71     0.62P    6.19R    0.31  
Notts_County     24   34   +0       1.46    58.52     0.69    63.64     6.83    -0.80     0.00     0.04    16.85     2.77P    2.16R    0.07  
Fleetwood_Town   26   34   +0       3.59    68.85     7.22    58.14     6.29    -4.39     0.00     0.00     3.48     0.49P    8.82R    0.53  
Oldham           24   34   -2       3.48    69.09     1.56    61.54     6.77    -5.89     0.00     0.02     9.79     1.33P    4.13R    0.22  
Doncaster        24   34   -3       0.70    54.14    -3.82    64.56     6.92    -2.18     0.01     0.08    19.72     3.83P    1.79R    0.07  
Walsall          26   33   -2      -2.36    38.13    -2.01    59.40     6.26    -3.12     0.00     0.00     4.92     0.85P    5.66R    0.28  
Peterborough     25   31   -2      -6.77    18.63    -7.11    62.09     6.68     1.30     0.00     0.01    11.96     2.69P    3.04R    0.16  
Barnsley         24   29   -2      -5.43    23.61    -4.11    60.46     7.02    -0.27     0.00     0.01     9.08     1.81P    5.91R    0.39  
Scunthorpe       23   29   -7       1.16    57.44    -0.79    56.63     7.12   -13.60     0.00     0.01     3.27     0.46P   17.24R    2.06  
Coventry         26   29  -10      -4.42    28.49    -6.31    54.93     6.41   -12.44     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.22P   21.09R    2.24  
Gillingham       26   28   -9      -2.29    39.13    -0.40    50.25     6.25   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   47.05R    8.84  
Leyton_Orient    25   26   -3     -12.34     4.87    -8.96    58.55     6.71     2.51     0.00     0.00     5.13     1.36P    8.69R    0.79  
Crewe            25   26  -20       1.16    57.81    -4.89    46.39     6.16   -33.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   73.43R   26.96  
Colchester       25   24  -13      -4.64    26.63    -4.29    48.18     6.46   -20.11     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   60.00R   16.65  
Crawley_Town     25   24  -18      -3.57    31.48    -8.06    47.76     6.37   -25.21     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   64.28R   19.08  
Yeovil           25   23  -18      -5.95    21.02   -10.37    47.33     6.48   -24.51     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   66.39R   21.22  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 1 3 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Wycombe              26   51  +19      10.65    92.70    11.89    81.72     6.28    24.02    25.35    65.27    95.65    72.83P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   50  +11      10.79    92.60     5.58    80.79     6.37    16.24    18.88    57.20    93.31    65.75P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   48  +20       2.27    61.78     5.39    83.30     6.24    31.25    36.07    76.03    97.52    83.54P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                25   46  +12       8.60    88.02     7.07    77.93     6.58    16.82    10.40    39.97    85.86    51.32P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       26   46   +7      10.87    92.52     7.61    72.64     6.27     5.91     2.10    13.19    59.15    21.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             26   44   +5       3.88    70.09    -1.80    74.83     6.17    10.13     3.81    21.14    73.05    35.76P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            26   41   +5       0.52    52.65    -2.33    71.96     6.42    10.37     1.87    12.33    56.97    24.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter               27   40   -1       2.69    64.06    -1.53    65.32     6.08    -2.04     0.10     1.31    17.43     4.76P    0.07R    0.00  
Plymouth             26   39  +11       2.05    61.33     8.43    68.11     6.19    13.74     0.38     4.01    34.85    11.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury                 25   38   +5      -0.14    49.43    -0.74    69.54     6.55     9.24     0.88     6.94    42.46    16.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            26   36   +2       1.69    59.44     3.43    62.50     6.14     1.08     0.03     0.51     9.44     2.43P    0.27R    0.04  
Cambridge_Utd        25   35  +10       1.49    58.68    10.96    63.47     6.55     9.76     0.08     1.19    14.42     4.09P    0.31R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   33   -1       1.30    57.77     2.93    59.31     6.42    -4.75     0.00     0.17     4.21     0.97P    1.67R    0.20  
Accrington_Stanley   24   33   -6       3.15    67.53    -1.08    61.32     6.72    -8.82     0.04     0.55     7.69     1.83P    1.16R    0.13  
Northampton          26   31   -1      -2.45    37.55     2.12    56.80     6.26    -3.44     0.00     0.04     1.73     0.41P    3.40R    0.50  
Portsmouth           25   29   -4      -4.63    26.59    -3.31    57.68     6.55    -4.11     0.01     0.10     2.75     0.73P    3.23R    0.44  
Oxford_Utd           26   29   -6      -5.18    24.60    -4.40    55.00     6.15    -7.94     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.17P    5.96R    0.94  
Cheltenham           26   29  -13      -2.31    37.99    -6.87    52.07     6.12   -19.10     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   15.60R    2.70  
York                 26   27   -5      -6.71    17.86    -2.95    53.77     6.13    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.10P    8.39R    1.46  
Mansfield            25   27  -12      -1.02    45.13    -3.13    51.04     6.27   -18.39     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.04P   20.38R    4.52  
Carlisle             26   27  -15      -5.55    23.77    -9.99    51.68     6.30   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   17.89R    3.81  
Tranmere             25   26   -4     -10.42     7.86    -7.34    55.86     6.63    -2.07     0.00     0.04     1.63     0.54P    5.57R    0.97  
Dag_&_Red            26   26  -11      -5.04    24.83    -4.39    49.75     6.09   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   25.44R    5.86  
Hartlepool           26   17  -28     -10.05     6.98   -15.54    38.33     5.95   -36.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.63R   78.39  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2015, Altrincham 2 1 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           31   62  +33       5.72    75.80    11.06    89.85     5.24    44.25    71.15    99.33    79.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   31   57  +16       1.50    56.87    -2.99    84.30     5.18    26.02    17.05    93.08    43.17P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   54  +13       9.28    87.13     7.53    78.94     5.47    17.59     3.38    67.82    15.37P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   50  +21      -0.88    45.11     4.24    79.24     5.69    29.83     5.21    72.86    25.38P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   50  +12       2.79    63.26     2.56    76.02     5.57    18.29     1.47    48.87    11.73P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        28   47  +14       5.37    74.12     9.30    71.65     6.15    13.87     0.52    23.28     4.39P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           31   46  +12       0.88    54.46     7.94    67.89     5.45    13.90     0.03     7.47     1.41P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    30   46   +5       0.04    50.54    -2.50    69.70     5.64     7.63     0.07    11.65     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          28   45  +11       0.49    52.27     1.43    72.55     6.05    15.29     0.66    27.22     6.32P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   45   +5       4.04    69.40     3.47    68.92     5.90     5.73     0.07    10.47     1.62P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        28   44   +8       0.65    53.39     0.28    71.20     6.00    11.83     0.32    19.76     4.27P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   43  +10       2.10    60.12     8.56    66.46     5.97    10.12     0.03     6.12     1.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Torquay          31   42   +7      -8.78    15.14    -5.84    68.69     5.37    16.58     0.02     9.00     2.45P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       31   42  -10       7.00    79.91     2.16    57.96     5.17   -17.32     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.19R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   30   39   +1      -3.98    31.46    -1.89    61.01     5.41     1.41     0.00     0.44     0.08P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   37   -3      -1.11    44.57    -4.85    64.23     6.17    -1.10     0.01     2.57     0.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Chester          30   37  -15       5.74    77.69     1.03    54.12     5.30   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.01R    0.03  
Aldershot        30   33  -10      -7.57    17.45    -9.28    55.09     5.44    -9.60     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.19R    0.01  
Welling          31   33  -12      -3.41    34.33    -2.69    50.75     5.18   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.75R    0.17  
Southport        27   31  -12       0.67    54.78    -1.42    52.50     5.95   -19.12     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.61R    0.25  
Alfreton_Town    29   27  -27      -2.36    38.72    -8.91    45.76     5.60   -34.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.08R    3.83  
Dartford         30   23  -25      -6.07    21.54    -5.62    39.69     5.26   -33.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.67R   21.14  
Nuneaton         31   23  -33      -6.76    18.96   -12.94    36.80     4.88   -43.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.07R   43.99  
AFC_Telford      29   22  -21      -6.64    20.07    -0.62    38.12     5.55   -34.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.35R   30.57