Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 12 January 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 January 2015, Arsenal 3 0 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          21   49  +27       5.57    82.54     3.26    84.67     5.28    46.43    55.62    96.39    99.28    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   47  +25       1.97    61.54    -2.02    83.39     5.12    47.67    43.73    95.16    98.97    99.77    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      21   39  +20       5.44    79.82    12.93    67.30     5.59    27.06     0.25     2.79    30.35    58.30    91.33     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   37  +13      -1.28    41.34    -1.38    67.78     5.59    24.50     0.21     3.00    33.88    60.40    92.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          21   36  +12      -1.32    41.52    -1.27    67.09     5.57    23.98     0.18     2.38    29.26    55.55    90.34     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   34   +1       2.72    66.28    -2.05    59.37     5.71     3.70     0.00     0.09     3.15     9.62    42.57     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham         21   33   +7       4.28    74.88     7.47    55.25     5.50     4.67     0.00     0.00     0.57     2.51    18.15     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool        21   32   +2      -4.94    22.30   -10.34    60.28     5.67     9.76     0.00     0.18     4.37    12.91    51.95     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          21   30   +1       1.02    56.85     1.54    51.94     5.68    -1.22     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.74     7.62     0.12R    0.01  
Newcastle        21   27   -8       3.01    69.25     0.72    47.19     5.57   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.35     1.84R    0.19  
Stoke            21   26   -5       1.26    59.13     1.43    47.77     5.58    -7.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.71     1.27R    0.12  
Everton          21   22   -4      -9.30     7.24    -7.11    48.79     5.68     1.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.18     2.88     0.90R    0.10  
Aston_Villa      21   22  -12       0.08    51.78    -1.92    39.20     5.16   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    23.80R    5.15  
West_Brom        21   21   -9      -3.66    28.50    -1.99    40.03     5.42   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    19.02R    4.31  
Crystal_Palace   21   20   -9      -1.52    41.12     2.52    37.39     5.25   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.25R    9.58  
Sunderland       21   20  -13      -1.98    38.41    -2.22    39.32     5.29   -19.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    23.05R    5.47  
Burnley          21   20  -14      -1.00    44.83    -1.33    35.64     5.16   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.35R   18.12  
Hull             21   19   -7      -3.08    31.45     3.20    37.17     5.29   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    34.52R   10.01  
QPR              21   19  -14      -1.75    39.78     0.13    34.37     5.27   -27.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.64R   26.36  
Leicester        21   17  -13      -4.88    22.11    -1.57    35.17     5.39   -22.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.24R   20.58  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 January 2015, Blackburn 0 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Bournemouth     25   48  +28       6.17    79.43    16.42    82.80     6.67    37.27    24.54    47.71    93.40    59.21P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   48  +24       3.18    66.40     7.82    86.09     6.46    38.16    44.00    67.73    97.75    77.21P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         25   47  +18       7.70    85.28    10.60    80.21     6.52    24.44    11.62    28.50    87.08    41.78P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   25   44  +21       2.80    64.62    10.83    78.87     6.44    29.74     9.25    23.62    83.50    40.18P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       25   43   +6       8.85    87.58     6.55    70.65     6.64     3.97     0.77     2.93    34.15     7.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford         25   41  +15       0.13    50.45     5.04    75.33     6.62    23.41     3.71    11.04    65.92    25.05P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   40  +16      -2.82    35.02     2.99    76.87     6.66    28.07     5.51    15.85    74.67    34.40P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   40   -4       5.63    77.54    -4.19    69.20     6.59    -3.35     0.42     1.70    25.69     6.28P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       25   37   -1       4.80    75.13     1.36    64.52     6.36    -2.59     0.04     0.27     9.05     1.77P    0.21R    0.00  
Blackburn       25   35   +1      -0.60    47.20    -0.83    65.04     6.57     2.59     0.07     0.33    11.07     2.45P    0.24R    0.01  
Cardiff         25   34   -2      -1.05    44.84    -3.00    63.47     6.66    -1.05     0.03     0.20     7.45     1.68P    0.61R    0.01  
Birmingham      25   34   -8       3.58    69.06    -1.84    59.15     6.38   -14.19     0.01     0.03     1.82     0.28P    2.53R    0.09  
Nott'm_Forest   25   31   -2      -3.19    33.95    -1.61    58.94     6.54    -3.57     0.00     0.03     2.02     0.42P    2.53R    0.11  
Charlton        25   31   -5       1.05    56.66     0.88    56.46     6.34    -9.48     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.11P    5.36R    0.24  
Huddersfield    25   31   -9       1.50    58.99    -0.81    55.75     6.47   -15.48     0.00     0.01     0.54     0.10P    7.67R    0.42  
Bolton          25   30   -5      -3.66    31.29    -4.10    57.34     6.40    -7.21     0.00     0.01     1.05     0.23P    4.01R    0.17  
Reading         25   30  -10      -3.83    30.43    -9.05    59.25     6.63    -9.62     0.00     0.02     2.03     0.44P    2.81R    0.12  
Fulham          25   28   -9      -6.34    20.44    -8.40    57.48     6.77    -8.36     0.00     0.01     1.39     0.27P    5.04R    0.29  
Brighton        25   26   -5      -9.33     9.55    -6.69    55.93     6.47    -2.98     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.14P    6.16R    0.31  
Rotherham       25   26  -10      -0.32    49.58     2.11    47.47     6.26   -20.94     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   44.58R    5.92  
Leeds_United    25   25  -11      -4.32    27.70    -3.02    50.71     6.45   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   24.40R    2.63  
Millwall        25   23  -17      -2.34    37.45    -3.06    44.19     6.13   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.84R   14.75  
Wigan           25   20   -9     -14.43     1.84    -9.34    48.91     6.48    -8.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   32.13R    4.32  
Blackpool       25   17  -22      -8.10    11.43    -8.64    36.65     5.91   -36.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.82R   70.59  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 12 January 2015, Coventry 0 3 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Swindon          25   51  +25       6.04    79.31     9.03    88.52     6.59    38.11    31.64    61.36    99.55    73.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     24   51  +24       8.93    88.98    10.08    89.58     6.86    36.77    38.17    65.93    99.63    75.83P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   45  +26       3.83    70.11    11.30    86.12     7.05    40.73    21.65    47.22    98.57    63.63P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          24   45  +14       4.58    73.45     3.01    82.47     6.80    24.70     8.22    23.39    95.94    44.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         24   36   +4       3.37    68.19     4.26    65.87     6.76     3.71     0.02     0.18    23.98     4.39P    0.91R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        23   36   +3       1.69    59.74    -1.17    71.22     6.94     8.43     0.22     1.21    53.88    12.93P    0.13R    0.00  
Chesterfield     24   35   +4       1.75    59.55     3.59    65.22     7.02     3.97     0.02     0.21    22.85     4.29P    1.27R    0.03  
Rochdale         24   34   +9       0.82    54.53     8.96    64.40     7.05     8.98     0.02     0.16    20.64     3.68P    1.65R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town   25   34   +2       3.97    71.01     7.79    60.10     6.57    -1.54     0.00     0.01     6.32     0.95P    5.30R    0.25  
Port_Vale        25   32   -5       1.21    57.17     0.55    57.42     6.53   -10.40     0.00     0.00     2.68     0.38P   12.30R    0.87  
Peterborough     24   31   -1      -5.43    23.08    -6.18    64.00     6.90     3.12     0.01     0.09    17.60     4.02P    1.88R    0.08  
Notts_County     23   31   -1       0.30    52.24     0.41    62.31     7.08    -1.35     0.00     0.07    12.33     2.12P    3.81R    0.20  
Oldham           23   31   -4       2.39    63.69     0.33    59.47     6.97    -8.59     0.00     0.01     5.76     0.82P    8.46R    0.62  
Doncaster        23   31   -4      -0.36    48.58    -3.95    62.20     7.13    -4.22     0.00     0.04    11.73     2.32P    4.09R    0.28  
Walsall          25   30   -4      -3.37    32.77    -3.15    57.59     6.48    -5.32     0.00     0.00     2.75     0.55P   10.76R    0.75  
Barnsley         23   29   -1      -4.33    27.95    -3.52    62.18     7.29     1.25     0.01     0.08    13.23     2.89P    4.12R    0.24  
Scunthorpe       22   29   -5       1.68    59.94    -0.24    57.69     7.30   -12.21     0.00     0.01     4.49     0.68P   14.16R    1.59  
Coventry         25   29   -8      -3.29    33.39    -4.77    56.77     6.63    -9.75     0.00     0.00     2.29     0.40P   14.47R    1.31  
Crewe            24   26  -19       1.92    62.12    -4.86    47.51     6.40   -32.89     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   67.30R   20.76  
Leyton_Orient    24   25   -3     -12.05     4.97    -9.09    58.80     6.93     2.33     0.00     0.01     5.33     1.36P    8.60R    0.77  
Gillingham       25   25  -11      -3.33    32.88    -1.52    47.85     6.40   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   62.23R   16.79  
Colchester       24   24  -11      -3.84    30.16    -3.19    49.80     6.68   -17.70     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   49.96R   11.36  
Crawley_Town     24   24  -15      -3.19    33.03    -6.71    49.58     6.57   -21.46     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   52.64R   11.91  
Yeovil           24   20  -19      -7.45    14.72   -10.97    45.24     6.67   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   75.97R   32.12  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 January 2015, Burton_Albion 2 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Wycombe              25   50  +19      10.91    93.53    11.77    81.89     6.47    23.72    28.71    67.89    95.69    74.81P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   49  +11      10.99    93.80     5.37    81.06     6.54    16.08    22.45    61.05    93.52    68.81P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       25   46  +11      10.71    92.79     9.29    74.72     6.44    11.01     4.93    23.76    72.44    33.23P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   45  +17       2.15    61.37     4.58    81.93     6.48    28.62    30.03    69.88    95.85    78.86P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                24   43  +11       7.14    84.03     6.38    75.72     6.80    15.05     6.99    30.21    76.74    41.88P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             25   41   +4       2.71    64.75    -2.14    72.81     6.35     8.68     2.54    15.37    62.30    28.37P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             25   39  +12       3.15    67.45     9.14    70.00     6.43    15.50     1.29     9.01    47.57    18.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage            25   38   +3      -0.43    47.78    -3.28    69.74     6.66     7.55     1.20     8.35    44.42    18.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury                 24   37   +5       0.30    52.07    -0.74    70.24     6.74     9.73     1.51     9.98    47.84    20.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter               26   37   -2       1.48    58.30    -1.94    63.36     6.24    -3.44     0.06     0.80    11.90     3.18P    0.30R    0.02  
Morecambe            25   35   +2       1.96    61.37     3.29    62.59     6.35     0.72     0.06     0.75    10.60     2.78P    0.36R    0.06  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   33   +1       2.13    62.45     4.04    61.69     6.65    -1.11     0.05     0.64     9.14     2.39P    0.87R    0.11  
Accrington_Stanley   23   33   -3       3.28    68.47     0.00    62.97     6.88    -5.34     0.12     1.33    12.72     3.53P    0.66R    0.08  
Cambridge_Utd        24   32   +6       1.24    57.59     8.97    61.05     6.76     4.68     0.04     0.64     8.94     2.41P    0.95R    0.14  
Oxford_Utd           25   29   -5      -4.06    29.20    -3.85    56.50     6.34    -6.61     0.00     0.06     1.74     0.50P    3.91R    0.74  
Northampton          25   28   -2      -3.67    31.34     1.80    55.43     6.48    -4.16     0.00     0.05     1.36     0.34P    6.09R    1.34  
Portsmouth           24   28   -4      -4.35    27.25    -3.46    58.32     6.75    -3.70     0.01     0.17     3.77     1.03P    2.95R    0.50  
Cheltenham           25   28  -13      -1.73    40.91    -6.64    52.58     6.34   -18.93     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.10P   14.26R    3.02  
York                 25   27   -3      -6.06    19.84    -1.89    55.84     6.40    -2.47     0.00     0.03     1.46     0.37P    5.13R    1.01  
Mansfield            24   27  -11       0.21    52.26    -2.51    52.60     6.44   -16.99     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P   14.46R    3.39  
Dag_&_Red            25   26  -10      -4.09    28.77    -3.98    50.93     6.33   -15.55     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   20.19R    5.26  
Carlisle             25   24  -17      -6.44    19.26   -10.92    48.95     6.50   -23.28     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   32.84R   10.37  
Tranmere             24   23   -7     -10.80     6.34    -8.57    53.93     6.77    -5.44     0.00     0.02     0.99     0.31P   10.27R    2.47  
Hartlepool           25   17  -25     -10.07     6.63   -14.71    39.33     6.11   -34.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.72R   71.50  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 January 2015, Eastleigh 4 0 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           30   62  +35       6.47    79.11    12.10    91.12     5.45    46.19    76.28    99.68    83.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   30   56  +16       1.98    59.39    -2.97    85.00     5.41    26.58    17.19    94.77    43.88P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   51  +11       8.12    84.52     6.15    76.65     5.67    14.63     1.33    54.75    10.95P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   47  +19      -1.98    39.37     3.11    77.42     5.91    27.54     3.06    64.46    21.06P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        28   47  +14       5.33    73.88     9.20    71.77     6.20    14.08     0.46    26.89     5.18P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     29   47  +11       1.60    57.88     2.26    74.24     5.74    17.10     0.67    40.07     9.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    29   46   +7       0.92    54.64    -1.25    71.80     5.83    10.70     0.24    24.37     5.16P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           30   45  +12       1.17    56.04     7.86    68.13     5.65    13.77     0.05    10.20     1.89P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          27   42  +10      -0.72    46.39     0.97    71.27     6.26    14.79     0.42    24.38     5.53P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay          30   42   +8      -7.77    17.65    -5.41    70.62     5.58    18.52     0.04    19.93     5.62P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     28   42   +2       3.45    67.24     2.13    67.07     6.12     2.34     0.03     7.75     1.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   +6      -0.38    48.22    -0.84    69.82     6.15    10.19     0.14    17.08     3.71P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   28   40   +5       2.99    64.75     7.44    64.16     6.13     4.13     0.01     3.68     0.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   29   39   +2      -2.90    36.01    -1.35    62.67     5.60     2.89     0.00     1.39     0.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham       30   39  -11       5.67    76.03     1.65    55.64     5.33   -19.37     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.95R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   37   +1      -0.66    46.64    -2.10    67.83     6.35     6.32     0.06    10.42     2.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Chester          29   36  -15       5.72    77.61     0.51    54.21     5.53   -23.31     0.00     0.02     0.00     2.53R    0.03  
Aldershot        29   33   -7      -7.39    17.56    -8.12    56.74     5.65    -6.24     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.69R    0.00  
Welling          30   33  -11      -2.27    39.24    -2.23    52.71     5.40   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.52R    0.06  
Southport        26   30  -12       1.16    57.47    -1.17    53.32     6.15   -18.53     0.00     0.03     0.00P    4.80R    0.18  
Alfreton_Town    28   24  -28      -4.00    30.22    -9.99    43.37     5.73   -37.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.58R    7.44  
Dartford         28   23  -19      -5.43    23.23    -3.32    42.43     5.73   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.78R    8.82  
Nuneaton         30   23  -31      -6.30    20.23   -12.35    37.83     5.05   -42.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.79R   27.46  
AFC_Telford      28   19  -25      -7.04    17.79    -2.29    34.69     5.58   -41.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.32R   56.01