Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 31 December 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2014, Liverpool 4 1 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          19   46  +27       6.38    87.48     5.30    86.31     5.61    49.44    59.74    96.09    99.47    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         19   43  +24       1.91    61.98    -0.93    84.04     5.43    50.03    39.12    93.37    98.87    99.78    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          19   36  +14       0.71    54.05    -0.17    70.79     5.92    27.48     0.84     7.02    54.30    78.93    95.98     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      19   33  +17       2.73    66.90    10.84    62.92     6.02    22.26     0.04     0.62    10.22    28.61    70.47     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          19   33  +11      -0.92    43.45    -1.25    67.46     5.99    23.89     0.25     2.62    28.30    59.82    89.35     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         19   31   +7       4.98    79.25     7.47    56.42     5.95     5.31     0.00     0.02     1.08     4.63    25.57     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        19   31   +0       2.70    67.17    -2.77    58.69     6.09     2.10     0.00     0.09     2.42     8.99    38.01     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        19   28   +1      -5.21    19.81    -9.83    60.70     6.04    11.46     0.00     0.17     4.79    16.18    54.58     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          19   28   +1       1.97    63.52     1.88    53.35     6.10    -0.29     0.00     0.00     0.35     1.88    12.64     0.09R    0.00  
Newcastle        19   26   -6       3.97    75.19     0.87    48.65     5.93   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.21     3.00     0.99R    0.08  
Stoke            19   25   -2       1.55    61.08     2.20    48.78     5.91    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.27     3.13     0.77R    0.05  
Everton          19   21   -2      -8.12     9.19    -6.04    50.74     6.14     3.28     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.77     7.00     0.43R    0.03  
Aston_Villa      19   21  -11       1.28    60.03    -1.45    41.21     5.65   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    12.58R    1.96  
Sunderland       19   20  -11      -0.41    48.39    -2.53    40.49     5.58   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    14.91R    2.56  
QPR              19   18  -13      -0.41    48.38     0.49    35.71     5.68   -26.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    43.49R   13.69  
West_Brom        19   17  -10      -4.65    21.59    -2.50    38.23     5.80   -18.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    25.61R    6.23  
Hull             19   16   -8      -3.72    26.15     1.86    36.04     5.66   -17.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.44R   10.85  
Crystal_Palace   19   16  -10      -2.86    31.53     1.63    35.24     5.62   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    44.21R   13.97  
Burnley          19   16  -15      -2.07    37.04    -2.35    33.81     5.52   -28.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.22R   22.09  
Leicester        19   13  -14      -6.13    14.93    -2.74    32.73     5.75   -25.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.25R   28.47  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2014, Derby 2 0 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Bournemouth     24   48  +29       7.22    84.14    16.81    84.66     6.84    39.05    33.04    56.05    96.01    65.87P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   47  +19       8.75    88.83    11.11    81.91     6.75    25.99    16.94    36.08    91.03    48.73P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   45  +23       1.72    58.97     7.07    84.28     6.68    36.93    29.64    53.19    95.42    66.26P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   24   43  +21       3.07    66.57    10.64    79.50     6.64    30.16    10.01    24.64    85.47    41.37P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         24   41  +17       1.08    55.71     6.34    77.62     6.76    26.81     6.47    17.12    77.67    32.82P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       24   40   +5       7.76    85.22     6.39    69.57     6.89     3.72     0.54     2.02    29.68     6.37P    0.04R    0.00  
Norwich         24   37  +15      -4.05    28.58     2.58    74.65     6.86    26.15     2.97     9.06    63.30    25.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   24   37   -5       4.19    71.81    -4.88    67.02     6.76    -5.21     0.19     0.75    17.44     3.86P    0.16R    0.00  
Blackburn       24   35   +2       0.59    53.48    -0.05    67.06     6.77     4.56     0.15     0.71    18.69     4.23P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       24   34   -3       3.47    69.39    -0.13    62.09     6.51    -5.79     0.02     0.10     4.99     0.88P    0.89R    0.02  
Nott'm_Forest   24   31   +0      -2.47    36.96    -0.62    61.21     6.76    -0.19     0.01     0.07     4.52     0.88P    1.55R    0.03  
Cardiff         24   31   -3      -2.33    38.29    -3.40    62.03     6.88    -1.79     0.01     0.11     5.88     1.24P    1.23R    0.04  
Charlton        24   31   -4       2.09    62.66     1.50    58.05     6.53    -8.13     0.00     0.01     1.47     0.27P    3.86R    0.12  
Birmingham      24   31  -10       2.47    64.34    -3.05    57.14     6.51   -16.81     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.15P    5.74R    0.20  
Bolton          24   29   -5      -3.07    33.98    -3.75    58.07     6.64    -6.73     0.00     0.01     1.60     0.29P    4.04R    0.19  
Reading         24   29  -10      -3.58    31.09    -9.14    59.52     6.83    -9.81     0.00     0.03     2.49     0.50P    3.17R    0.10  
Fulham          24   28   -8      -5.38    23.82    -7.99    58.81     7.05    -7.50     0.00     0.04     2.46     0.55P    4.31R    0.20  
Huddersfield    24   28  -11       0.32    52.50    -2.06    53.33     6.66   -18.81     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03P   16.18R    1.15  
Rotherham       24   26   -9       0.47    53.84     2.42    48.40     6.49   -20.89     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   40.09R    3.84  
Leeds_United    24   24  -11      -4.10    28.40    -3.12    50.56     6.63   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   26.67R    2.42  
Brighton        24   23   -6     -10.74     5.98    -7.30    54.11     6.69    -4.25     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.09P   11.84R    0.73  
Millwall        24   23  -16      -1.33    43.45    -2.38    45.59     6.32   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    58.87R    9.45  
Wigan           24   20   -7     -13.56     2.44    -8.11    50.64     6.70    -6.23     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.04P   24.70R    2.27  
Blackpool       24   14  -23      -9.34     7.33    -8.88    34.94     6.11   -37.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.49R   79.23  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2014, Yeovil 0 3 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City     23   48  +20       8.75    89.02     8.35    87.33     7.06    31.76    26.57    52.14    98.81    64.97P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          23   47  +22       6.21    80.86     8.17    87.70     6.97    35.69    29.10    55.97    99.13    69.76P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          23   45  +15       5.59    78.66     3.46    84.50     6.94    26.59    14.54    34.56    97.37    53.76P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          22   44  +26       4.64    74.62    11.97    87.31     7.19    41.96    29.29    55.05    98.77    68.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         23   36   +5       4.37    73.44     4.71    67.52     6.94     5.18     0.11     0.47    31.44     5.85P    0.47R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   33   +2       0.23    51.55    -1.93    69.19     7.14     6.90     0.19     0.84    41.02     9.81P    0.27R    0.01  
Chesterfield     23   32   +1       1.36    58.02     2.39    62.61     7.11    -0.45     0.01     0.08    12.72     2.14P    3.09R    0.17  
Rochdale         23   31   +8      -0.54    47.48     8.37    62.59     7.30     7.69     0.03     0.10    14.53     2.68P    3.27R    0.19  
Notts_County     22   31   +3       0.39    52.57     2.36    64.30     7.26     3.59     0.04     0.20    19.16     3.69P    2.02R    0.09  
Peterborough     23   31   +1      -4.40    27.14    -4.69    66.37     7.14     6.66     0.08     0.33    27.73     6.75P    0.90R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town   23   30   +1       2.88    66.92     7.01    57.14     6.82    -4.98     0.00     0.00     2.99     0.43P   12.54R    0.93  
Walsall          23   30   +1      -1.93    39.27    -0.01    61.95     6.91     2.00     0.00     0.07    10.60     2.23P    3.21R    0.14  
Oldham           22   30   -4       2.86    67.00     0.47    59.53     7.07    -8.93     0.00     0.01     5.70     0.88P    8.03R    0.62  
Doncaster        22   30   -4      -0.00    50.57    -4.06    62.70     7.34    -3.95     0.01     0.08    13.33     2.59P    3.55R    0.19  
Port_Vale        23   29   -3       0.29    52.61     1.53    57.67     6.94    -7.55     0.00     0.00     3.39     0.51P   11.54R    0.95  
Barnsley         22   26   -3      -5.35    23.02    -4.54    60.43     7.47    -0.91     0.01     0.05     8.93     1.92P    6.76R    0.60  
Coventry         23   26   -7      -4.33    27.44    -4.97    56.36     7.05    -8.96     0.00     0.01     2.62     0.48P   16.06R    1.60  
Scunthorpe       21   26   -8       0.82    55.73    -2.09    54.85     7.46   -16.95     0.00     0.01     2.04     0.31P   24.34R    3.60  
Leyton_Orient    23   25   -2     -10.81     6.53    -8.28    60.77     7.11     4.26     0.00     0.02     8.99     2.29P    5.18R    0.35  
Gillingham       23   25   -8      -1.46    42.69    -0.04    51.50     6.84   -15.95     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.06P   38.36R    6.43  
Crawley_Town     23   23  -15      -2.96    34.05    -7.05    49.03     6.74   -22.85     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   54.43R   12.88  
Crewe            23   23  -21       0.75    55.89    -6.25    45.30     6.52   -35.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    76.18R   30.81  
Colchester       23   21  -13      -5.15    23.23    -4.71    47.16     6.79   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   63.82R   19.00  
Yeovil           23   20  -17      -6.81    16.73   -10.16    46.82     6.92   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   65.98R   21.40  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 4 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Shrewsbury           23   44  +18       3.35    68.30     4.84    84.10     6.81    30.38    45.41    79.70    97.28    85.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              23   44  +17       8.73    89.46    11.31    79.75     6.89    23.33    19.68    56.98    90.30    65.16P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   43   +9       8.75    89.85     4.86    78.11     6.87    14.51    12.69    44.85    84.26    54.34P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                23   42  +11       7.46    85.47     6.36    76.07     7.00    15.05     8.46    34.15    76.61    44.65P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       23   40   +9       8.63    89.27     9.17    71.84     6.83     9.54     2.62    15.22    54.38    23.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend             23   39   +4       3.33    68.47    -2.29    74.09     6.76     9.40     4.32    22.57    66.84    35.07P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             23   37  +12       3.50    69.53     8.80    70.13     6.79    14.71     1.66    11.01    46.79    19.81P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 23   37   +6       1.36    57.55    -0.18    72.01     7.00    11.36     2.96    16.66    56.56    27.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               24   37   +1       3.60    69.27     0.16    68.03     6.72     2.37     0.63     5.42    32.26    11.55P    0.06R    0.00  
Stevenage            23   34   +2      -1.23    43.34    -3.55    68.87     7.10     7.13     1.17     8.43    38.50    16.84P    0.07R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        23   33   +2       2.91    66.55     4.21    62.70     6.92    -0.85     0.11     1.32    12.09     3.53P    0.69R    0.07  
Morecambe            23   33   +2       2.72    65.78     3.55    63.70     6.78     1.09     0.15     1.67    14.71     4.46P    0.38R    0.03  
Accrington_Stanley   22   30   -4       1.83    61.26    -0.66    60.50     7.07    -7.82     0.05     0.63     7.20     1.95P    1.84R    0.27  
Cambridge_Utd        23   29   +5      -0.03    50.60     8.61    58.70     7.00     2.50     0.03     0.39     5.13     1.44P    2.72R    0.43  
Portsmouth           23   28   -3      -3.37    31.76    -2.90    59.62     6.99    -2.91     0.03     0.46     6.02     1.81P    2.18R    0.35  
Oxford_Utd           23   28   -4      -2.62    35.64    -3.16    59.09     6.77    -4.50     0.01     0.25     4.50     1.27P    2.37R    0.32  
Mansfield            23   27  -10       0.85    55.81    -2.42    53.55     6.66   -16.70     0.00     0.02     0.67     0.13P   11.73R    2.25  
York                 23   26   -2      -4.76    24.73    -1.34    57.34     6.78    -1.83     0.01     0.17     2.83     0.86P    3.70R    0.66  
Cheltenham           23   25  -12      -2.67    35.31    -6.49    51.87     6.74   -18.58     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.08P   17.50R    3.91  
Northampton          23   24   -4      -4.56    25.89     0.43    53.19     6.83    -7.74     0.00     0.02     0.80     0.23P   12.27R    2.57  
Carlisle             23   24  -15      -4.62    26.50   -10.27    52.00     6.99   -20.87     0.00     0.02     0.51     0.14P   18.47R    4.50  
Tranmere             23   22   -7     -10.68     6.28    -8.81    54.19     6.98    -5.66     0.00     0.04     1.16     0.36P    9.93R    2.08  
Dag_&_Red            23   22  -11      -5.15    22.91    -4.43    49.63     6.77   -16.89     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.05P   27.20R    7.31  
Hartlepool           23   14  -26     -10.56     4.77   -15.81    38.09     6.48   -37.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.87R   75.23  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2014, Altrincham 0 1 Nuneaton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           28   59  +37       5.95    78.33    13.45    92.53     5.85    50.78    79.89    99.71    86.25P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   28   52  +14       1.97    59.48    -3.27    84.53     5.81    25.74    13.07    92.88    39.57P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   48  +10       6.41    79.27     5.08    74.40     5.81    12.85     0.50    39.90     7.61P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   47  +20      -0.78    45.34     3.78    79.57     6.08    29.70     4.74    76.28    26.27P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        25   43  +12       6.34    79.29     8.70    72.21     6.83    12.53     0.57    30.72     5.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           28   43  +12       1.81    59.42     7.65    68.65     6.05    13.35     0.06    13.62     2.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster    27   43   +8       0.67    53.46    -0.30    72.24     6.24    12.77     0.31    28.67     6.40P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          27   42  +10      -0.76    46.02     0.89    71.18     6.25    14.66     0.29    24.37     5.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     27   41   +6       0.09    50.73    -0.04    70.36     6.10    11.14     0.10    18.93     3.84P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay          28   40   +8      -6.79    20.05    -5.01    72.35     5.90    20.39     0.20    31.10     8.68P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   40   +6       0.14    50.74    -0.66    70.79     6.36    11.07     0.18    21.91     4.53P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     26   39   +3       2.50    63.08     1.91    66.32     6.48     2.55     0.04     7.69     1.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic   27   37   +3       2.02    60.54     6.52    61.98     6.31     1.31     0.00     2.05     0.35P    0.14R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   37   +1      -0.44    47.88    -1.83    67.95     6.31     6.48     0.05    10.76     2.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Chester          27   36  -11       7.06    83.41     2.01    57.22     5.96   -18.63     0.00     0.16     0.01P    1.13R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   27   33   -2      -4.45    28.21    -2.93    59.60     6.01    -0.79     0.00     0.54     0.11P    0.38R    0.00  
Aldershot        27   33   -5      -5.36    24.54    -7.15    60.20     6.03    -3.05     0.00     0.61     0.11P    0.32R    0.00  
Welling          28   33   -6      -1.36    43.26    -0.11    55.84     5.83    -8.80     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.80R    0.02  
Altrincham       28   33  -16       4.38    72.54    -0.18    50.62     5.62   -27.45     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.12R    0.25  
Southport        26   30  -12       1.38    58.42    -0.82    53.28     6.11   -18.63     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.46R    0.13  
Dartford         26   23  -15      -4.49    26.87    -2.28    45.14     6.14   -23.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.60R    3.37  
Alfreton_Town    27   23  -28      -4.29    28.51   -11.07    42.43     5.82   -39.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.37R    8.23  
Nuneaton         28   22  -29      -5.78    21.56   -11.95    38.91     5.48   -41.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.76R   19.25  
AFC_Telford      26   15  -26      -8.04    12.52    -2.37    32.66     5.96   -44.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.90R   68.74