Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 4 December 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 December 2014, Arsenal 1 0 Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          14   36  +22       6.71    92.77     5.42    87.28     6.52    51.31    63.94    95.78    99.14    99.78    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         14   30  +17       0.38    51.31    -0.23    83.43     6.26    53.61    34.55    90.81    97.72    99.26    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      14   26  +14       3.62    75.89     9.40    62.84     7.10    19.41     0.17     1.63    14.48    30.89    64.66     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          14   25   +8      -0.83    42.83    -2.20    67.87     7.14    23.36     0.76     5.90    37.04    59.92    84.95     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         14   24   +6       4.98    83.05     6.56    55.34     7.00     2.67     0.01     0.12     1.86     5.71    22.40     0.15R    0.01  
Arsenal          14   23   +7      -1.71    36.85    -1.39    66.51     7.08    23.21     0.43     4.01    29.20    52.43    81.07     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          14   22   +5       2.09    66.21     4.55    55.47     7.21     5.47     0.01     0.12     2.10     6.80    24.32     0.19R    0.00  
Liverpool        14   20   +0      -4.97    16.83    -8.89    62.28     7.09    14.99     0.11     1.29    12.86    28.37    61.27     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        14   20   -2       2.54    69.33     0.88    47.54     6.84   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.51     3.40     2.96R    0.31  
Tottenham        14   20   -3       0.06    50.59    -3.41    55.85     7.25     0.98     0.00     0.13     2.35     7.09    24.99     0.21R    0.02  
Everton          14   18   +2      -4.79    17.96    -3.22    56.68     7.15    10.32     0.01     0.21     3.08     9.01    30.58     0.10R    0.01  
Aston_Villa      14   16  -10       2.16    68.47    -1.34    41.95     6.69   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.49    14.14R    2.53  
Stoke            14   15   -4      -2.16    33.70    -0.44    43.33     6.87   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.11     1.03     9.30R    1.39  
Sunderland       14   14  -10      -0.52    47.17    -2.66    39.88     6.65   -22.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.21    22.07R    4.53  
Crystal_Palace   14   13   -5      -1.58    38.38     2.42    37.37     6.59   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09    32.74R    8.68  
West_Brom        14   13   -6      -3.21    26.59    -0.76    41.32     6.87   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.46    15.68R    3.08  
Hull             14   12   -6      -2.00    35.30     2.26    37.58     6.64   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    31.51R    8.12  
Burnley          14   12  -12      -1.72    37.83    -3.55    32.93     6.45   -32.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    62.08R   26.78  
QPR              14   11  -13      -1.39    40.05    -1.17    33.17     6.69   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    60.11R   26.78  
Leicester        14   10  -10      -4.59    18.18    -2.23    34.84     6.89   -24.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    48.76R   17.77  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 November 2014, Birmingham 2 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Derby           19   35  +16       1.89    61.37     5.16    81.77     7.79    30.87    41.14    60.59    90.33    69.69P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         19   34   +9       6.09    83.38     6.19    74.08     7.72    13.49     9.20    20.54    61.79    30.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       19   34   +6       8.30    89.99     6.64    69.59     7.93     3.81     3.48     9.07    37.84    14.37P    0.21R    0.01  
Bournemouth     19   33  +17       3.44    70.66    11.82    75.03     7.94    24.55    12.84    27.04    67.77    36.96P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   19   33  +14       2.32    64.20     7.09    75.06     7.69    21.35    12.11    25.93    67.65    37.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       19   31   +4       3.29    69.68     1.61    71.32     7.82     8.73     4.99    12.47    47.65    20.70P    0.17R    0.00  
Watford         19   29   +9      -1.59    40.03     2.08    71.13     7.87    16.61     5.19    13.01    48.41    22.78P    0.12R    0.00  
Cardiff         19   29   +2       1.60    59.87    -0.01    69.38     7.90     7.08     3.19     8.56    38.00    15.89P    0.32R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   19   28   +5       0.76    55.05     3.34    68.16     7.75     9.54     2.28     6.42    32.78    12.64P    0.44R    0.01  
Charlton        19   28   +1       3.97    74.74     3.62    62.01     7.40    -2.82     0.26     1.01     9.92     2.72P    2.37R    0.11  
Norwich         19   27   +5      -3.19    31.08    -1.27    69.19     8.04    12.59     3.55     9.06    38.58    17.67P    0.36R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   19   27   -7       1.48    59.58    -6.16    63.01     7.84    -8.52     0.52     1.70    12.99     4.27P    2.42R    0.10  
Sheff_Wed       19   25   -1       0.46    53.65     0.67    59.82     7.48    -3.90     0.09     0.46     6.18     1.59P    4.60R    0.29  
Reading         19   24   -5      -3.18    30.73    -6.57    63.30     7.92    -1.83     0.49     1.72    14.52     4.92P    2.38R    0.13  
Leeds_United    19   23   -3      -1.41    41.69    -0.25    56.44     7.70    -8.58     0.06     0.20     2.90     0.72P   11.58R    0.99  
Fulham          19   22   -4      -5.81    18.71    -6.37    61.63     8.29    -0.45     0.47     1.64    11.93     4.48P    4.21R    0.29  
Birmingham      19   22  -13       0.44    54.01    -6.15    52.47     7.46   -23.61     0.01     0.04     0.70     0.16P   25.99R    3.65  
Bolton          19   21   -6      -4.14    25.87    -4.54    56.22     7.63    -8.89     0.03     0.14     2.67     0.69P   12.08R    1.13  
Huddersfield    19   21   -7      -0.97    44.76    -0.12    54.23     7.74   -13.01     0.02     0.10     1.59     0.39P   18.64R    2.13  
Millwall        19   20   -5      -1.33    42.15     2.27    49.89     7.42   -15.25     0.00     0.02     0.31     0.05P   36.79R    5.40  
Rotherham       19   19  -10      -0.28    49.55     0.81    45.57     7.38   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   61.99R   15.72  
Brighton        19   18   -4      -9.49     5.95    -6.24    56.35     7.57    -1.69     0.03     0.13     2.66     0.79P   10.85R    0.99  
Wigan           19   17   -5     -10.08     5.06    -6.66    56.15     7.78    -1.82     0.04     0.15     2.76     0.88P   11.86R    1.15  
Blackpool       19    9  -18      -9.53     4.03    -6.97    36.69     7.13   -31.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.58R   67.88  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 December 2014, Barnsley 1 1 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City     19   39  +17       7.34    87.18     8.52    86.55     7.94    33.19    30.90    55.36    96.09    66.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          19   38  +16       5.29    79.59     5.99    84.35     7.85    29.91    20.78    43.17    93.44    57.63P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          18   37  +21       5.14    79.57    10.02    85.48     8.05    36.28    27.50    50.73    94.82    63.49P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          19   37  +13       4.27    74.71     3.13    83.39     7.85    26.97    17.48    37.61    91.78    53.53P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        19   31   +3       2.54    65.78    -0.60    72.51     7.71     9.62     1.15     4.40    50.14    15.13P    0.14R    0.00  
Oldham           19   30   +8       3.74    72.42     7.54    68.09     7.80     9.77     0.40     1.64    29.28     7.02P    0.65R    0.01  
Notts_County     18   30   +8       3.23    69.87     4.92    70.07     8.13    10.42     0.97     3.35    38.68    10.44P    0.47R    0.01  
Rochdale         19   27   +8       1.36    58.72     8.95    64.70     8.15     8.71     0.17     0.76    18.20     4.00P    2.56R    0.11  
Peterborough     19   27   +2      -3.22    30.89    -4.20    68.68     7.92     8.90     0.45     1.85    32.33     9.40P    0.63R    0.02  
Bradford         19   26   +1       1.13    57.70     2.65    62.18     7.74    -0.07     0.04     0.21     9.76     2.05P    4.19R    0.16  
Fleetwood_Town   19   25   +1       2.84    68.25     6.48    56.44     7.78    -6.69     0.00     0.04     2.61     0.44P   16.04R    1.31  
Chesterfield     19   25   +0       0.11    51.24     1.74    60.79     8.05    -1.93     0.03     0.16     8.00     1.74P    6.99R    0.40  
Walsall          19   23   -1      -3.29    30.10    -1.78    58.66     7.51    -2.19     0.01     0.05     3.96     0.87P    8.81R    0.53  
Barnsley         19   23   -2      -4.85    23.56    -4.53    61.02     8.17    -0.68     0.04     0.23     8.83     2.22P    6.59R    0.44  
Port_Vale        19   23   -2      -0.97    44.72     1.43    56.53     7.78    -7.57     0.00     0.04     2.52     0.49P   15.85R    1.44  
Doncaster        18   23   -6      -1.09    43.67    -5.34    60.08     8.19    -7.67     0.05     0.21     6.81     1.62P    8.73R    0.53  
Crawley_Town     19   22  -10      -0.72    46.33    -5.31    53.77     7.55   -17.47     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.18P   26.74R    2.90  
Coventry         19   21   -7      -3.68    28.60    -4.64    56.96     7.88    -8.89     0.02     0.07     2.86     0.59P   15.07R    1.22  
Leyton_Orient    19   19   -5      -9.97     5.94    -9.40    60.62     7.92     1.76     0.03     0.12     7.59     2.20P    6.60R    0.44  
Gillingham       19   19   -7      -2.92    32.80    -0.66    50.06     7.66   -16.27     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.07P   44.19R    7.47  
Scunthorpe       18   19  -10      -1.20    43.42    -2.65    50.79     8.08   -20.83     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.10P   41.98R    7.82  
Colchester       19   17  -10      -4.58    23.51    -2.96    49.26     7.71   -17.41     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.06P   48.22R    9.29  
Yeovil           19   17  -16      -5.33    19.86   -10.66    47.93     7.79   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   56.85R   13.05  
Crewe            19   16  -22      -1.78    39.79    -8.64    40.32     7.16   -42.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.70R   52.85  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 November 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 1 2 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Wycombe              19   38  +14       8.93    92.32     9.41    78.19     7.67    18.82    16.91    48.57    84.35    57.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                19   37  +11       8.02    89.67     6.60    77.44     7.89    16.38    14.38    44.51    80.81    53.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           19   36  +15       2.48    64.95     3.93    82.90     7.83    29.47    39.74    73.11    94.44    80.23P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        19   35   +3       8.02    90.13     1.55    74.15     7.72     6.47     6.57    26.74    66.99    35.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend             19   34   +6       3.63    72.21    -0.41    76.47     7.58    14.12    11.15    38.97    78.19    50.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Plymouth             19   31  +11       3.67    72.52     8.77    69.93     7.62    14.20     2.60    13.87    48.83    22.58P    0.07R    0.01  
Newport_County       19   31   +7       5.37    80.49     7.71    67.51     7.68     6.33     1.34     8.22    35.12    13.78P    0.30R    0.06  
Bury                 19   30   +4       1.11    56.72    -0.33    71.05     7.77    10.09     3.21    16.68    53.56    26.56P    0.06R    0.02  
Exeter               19   30   +2       3.68    72.02     1.55    69.02     7.83     4.97     1.88    11.45    42.34    18.51P    0.24R    0.04  
Cambridge_Utd        19   27   +7       2.26    64.29     8.93    61.09     7.83     2.78     0.25     2.04    12.96     4.38P    2.69R    0.67  
Morecambe            19   27   -1       2.75    67.41     1.47    61.84     7.59    -3.90     0.20     1.80    12.88     4.15P    2.11R    0.55  
Portsmouth           19   26   +0      -0.61    46.59    -0.95    64.68     7.81     2.53     0.57     4.35    23.18     8.98P    0.95R    0.23  
Accrington_Stanley   19   26   -4       1.55    60.28    -1.23    59.72     7.67    -9.24     0.13     1.01     8.42     2.45P    4.20R    1.12  
Stevenage            19   25   +0      -3.66    28.58    -3.94    65.67     8.07     5.59     0.90     6.22    28.63    12.81P    0.83R    0.17  
Northampton          19   24   +0      -0.51    47.43     2.19    59.06     7.67    -2.96     0.09     0.85     7.68     2.29P    4.58R    1.36  
AFC_Wimbledon        19   24   -3       0.69    55.39     1.15    57.01     7.55    -9.10     0.02     0.40     4.29     1.16P    7.80R    2.40  
Cheltenham           19   23  -10      -0.12    49.96    -5.68    55.36     7.57   -16.81     0.01     0.20     2.64     0.66P   12.21R    4.15  
Mansfield            19   22   -9       0.79    56.28    -2.12    53.67     7.49   -16.46     0.00     0.08     1.63     0.38P   17.03R    6.32  
Oxford_Utd           19   21   -4      -4.51    23.92    -3.52    56.92     7.59    -5.28     0.03     0.36     4.47     1.36P    7.59R    2.47  
Dag_&_Red            19   21   -5      -2.87    32.75    -1.56    54.39     7.66   -10.63     0.01     0.16     2.39     0.70P   14.05R    5.07  
York                 19   19   -5      -5.46    18.76    -3.20    55.10     7.53    -5.78     0.02     0.19     2.73     0.80P   11.35R    3.67  
Carlisle             19   18  -12      -6.29    16.45    -9.01    52.24     7.94   -16.86     0.00     0.10     1.48     0.44P   23.10R    9.60  
Tranmere             19   15   -7     -11.99     2.75    -8.44    53.29     7.88    -4.78     0.01     0.13     1.95     0.66P   17.32R    6.66  
Hartlepool           19   12  -20      -9.14     5.79   -12.88    42.22     7.32   -29.96     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   73.49R   55.42  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 December 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 2 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           24   49  +31       4.34    73.03    12.25    88.73     6.57    45.98    62.65    96.37    72.47P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           23   42  +16       6.62    83.08     9.91    75.68     7.00    19.22     3.84    43.10    10.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   24   42   +8       0.17    50.78    -5.29    79.76     6.63    19.36     8.82    65.26    26.16P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   41  +20      -1.72    39.84     5.03    79.10     6.58    31.76     9.03    65.43    26.23P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     23   39   +9       4.54    74.19     4.54    71.36     6.68    10.68     0.75    19.80     4.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Halifax          23   38  +11       0.79    54.26     1.81    74.40     6.95    18.37     2.83    36.39    10.51P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        23   38   +7       2.35    63.15     0.47    73.78     6.87    13.54     1.98    31.96     8.09P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    24   37   +7      -0.49    47.16    -0.33    71.37     6.75    13.25     0.76    20.49     5.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     23   37   +7       1.72    59.62     1.21    73.34     6.83    14.53     1.61    29.71     7.54P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay          23   36  +11      -4.61    25.47    -3.35    77.74     6.87    27.64     6.40    57.12    21.48P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        21   36   +8       6.94    84.36     7.90    69.62     7.66     6.95     1.00    16.71     3.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          24   34   +2      -0.53    47.41    -0.62    69.11     6.65     9.70     0.25    11.51     2.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Chester          24   33   -8       6.74    83.88     2.59    57.53     6.43   -17.45     0.00     0.24     0.01P    1.40R    0.02  
Dover_Athletic   24   32   -1       2.58    64.67     4.70    59.33     6.83    -5.63     0.01     0.71     0.09P    0.69R    0.02  
Lincoln_City     22   30   -1       0.13    51.07    -0.23    62.18     7.07    -2.35     0.03     2.16     0.33P    0.32R    0.01  
Aldershot        23   30   -1      -4.21    27.59    -5.13    63.54     6.77     2.28     0.04     2.65     0.58P    0.14R    0.00  
Altrincham       24   28  -17       4.72    75.81    -1.02    49.64     6.47   -31.21     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.76R    1.45  
Braintree_Town   24   27   -2      -6.24    18.87    -2.90    57.75     6.54    -0.72     0.00     0.27     0.06P    1.16R    0.04  
Welling          23   25   -5      -3.34    31.55    -0.22    54.39     6.79    -8.27     0.00     0.10     0.02P    4.19R    0.25  
Southport        22   23  -13      -1.32    43.15    -3.37    48.92     6.76   -24.57     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.77R    2.05  
Dartford         24   20  -15      -5.38    21.18    -3.14    44.05     6.39   -24.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.39R    7.19  
Nuneaton         23   18  -25      -4.88    22.89   -11.17    41.11     6.44   -38.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.04R   17.45  
Alfreton_Town    23   17  -25      -6.12    17.53   -10.47    41.10     6.60   -37.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.40R   17.11  
AFC_Telford      23   14  -24      -6.06    18.05    -3.14    35.12     6.65   -42.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.71R   54.41