Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 18 September 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 15 September 2014, Hull 2 2 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           4   12   +9       3.36    90.55     3.75    83.89     8.86    51.66    48.63    75.01    88.44    94.64    98.97     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa       4   10   +3       5.08    97.65     4.14    48.68     8.97   -10.79     0.01     0.11     0.48     1.59     7.45     4.77R    0.77  
Swansea           4    9   +3       3.89    92.53     3.89    57.01     9.57     3.72     0.31     1.45     4.39    10.09    29.69     0.82R    0.09  
Southampton       4    7   +5       0.93    64.52     4.30    56.06     9.38     7.46     0.19     1.08     3.43     8.49    26.90     0.89R    0.08  
Man_City          4    7   +3      -1.11    33.65    -1.42    81.00     8.72    50.44    33.33    65.29    82.74    91.28    97.97     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         4    7   +2       0.37    56.12     0.29    59.18     9.64     9.41     0.50     2.44     6.97    14.93    38.83     0.43R    0.04  
Arsenal           4    6   +1      -0.77    37.23    -1.00    68.17     9.42    25.36     3.50    12.61    28.41    47.27    75.75     0.02R    0.00  
Liverpool         4    6   +1      -0.94    34.65    -1.38    73.38     9.36    36.49    10.21    28.68    51.91    69.26    89.26     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           4    5   +3      -3.26    10.96    -1.39    65.72     9.46    24.67     2.39     9.01    21.09    37.03    67.51     0.08R    0.00  
Hull              4    5   +0      -0.11    50.68     0.43    38.16     8.53   -22.63     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.10     0.64    29.91R    7.80  
Everton           4    5   -1      -0.97    37.04    -1.67    62.03     9.60    14.42     0.91     4.16    11.30    22.52    51.23     0.25R    0.01  
Leicester         4    5   -1       1.48    74.25     2.43    45.63     9.74   -12.22     0.01     0.09     0.40     1.16     5.25    11.09R    2.27  
West_Ham          4    4   -1      -1.22    34.65    -0.59    43.09     9.12   -14.86     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.46     2.49    14.77R    3.19  
Stoke             4    4   -1      -0.93    37.52     0.03    44.65     8.95   -10.33     0.00     0.02     0.16     0.59     3.43    10.74R    2.02  
Sunderland        4    3   -1      -1.79    25.38     0.15    41.17     8.99   -16.31     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.22     1.63    19.63R    4.61  
QPR               4    3   -8      -0.43    44.49    -4.55    30.83     8.51   -40.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.09    65.26R   33.11  
Crystal_Palace    4    2   -3      -2.26    19.99    -1.01    33.73     8.39   -27.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13    50.16R   18.96  
Burnley           4    2   -3      -1.47    30.41     0.26    36.90     9.14   -22.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.66    36.46R   11.71  
West_Brom         4    2   -5      -2.31    20.11    -3.11    39.94     9.04   -21.29     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.17     1.20    24.67R    6.60  
Newcastle         4    2   -6      -2.21    19.77    -3.57    38.59     9.09   -24.94     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.09     0.91    30.04R    8.74  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 September 2014, Blackburn 2 3 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Nott'm_Forest    7   17  +10       5.80    94.50     7.54    77.51    10.53    20.74    11.44    24.70    64.10    33.81P    0.15R    0.01  
Norwich          7   16  +10       3.93    85.73     6.13    86.92    10.74    36.51    41.48    60.21    88.79    69.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford          7   15   +7       3.18    80.40     3.51    77.05    10.71    20.30    10.72    23.78    62.51    33.58P    0.19R    0.02  
Wolverhampton    7   14   +4       3.06    79.71     2.01    75.07    10.74    15.45     7.71    18.07    54.95    28.09P    0.35R    0.03  
Charlton         7   13   +3       4.41    88.66     4.28    62.91    10.12    -2.22     0.57     1.93    14.14     4.11P    4.42R    0.66  
Reading          7   13   +1       1.85    69.23    -1.41    73.33    10.69    11.40     5.96    14.30    48.00    22.71P    0.51R    0.08  
Derby            7   12   +5       0.45    54.43     1.89    76.76    10.49    22.48    10.72    22.94    62.34    34.37P    0.17R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed        7   12   +3       2.85    78.77     3.56    65.36    10.23     2.92     1.12     3.32    20.76     6.71P    2.65R    0.41  
Middlesbrough    7   12   +2       1.67    67.41     0.85    68.38    10.20     6.47     2.15     5.94    29.74    11.48P    1.12R    0.13  
Ipswich          7   11   +3       1.40    66.02     2.98    66.17    10.22     5.83     1.33     3.95    22.95     8.29P    2.19R    0.31  
Brentford        7   11   +0       2.08    71.97     0.89    56.01    10.62   -12.80     0.14     0.57     5.49     1.55P   16.22R    3.80  
Millwall         7   10   +0       1.68    69.32     2.00    53.36     9.96   -15.00     0.06     0.24     2.70     0.61P   21.52R    5.05  
Blackburn        7   10   -1       0.47    55.66    -0.79    66.56    10.64     3.29     1.56     4.68    24.80     9.17P    2.62R    0.35  
Leeds_United     7   10   -3       1.45    66.36    -1.28    58.03    10.20   -11.69     0.19     0.73     6.60     1.81P   11.07R    2.25  
Bournemouth      7    8   +1      -1.74    32.45     1.00    57.92    10.50    -5.05     0.20     0.79     7.51     2.13P   11.55R    2.48  
Wigan            7    8   +1      -3.15    19.83    -1.32    68.29    10.31    11.34     2.15     5.91    30.39    12.57P    1.40R    0.17  
Cardiff          7    8   -1      -1.68    33.22    -1.17    64.84    10.88     4.11     1.21     3.69    20.88     8.15P    3.77R    0.64  
Brighton         7    7   -2      -3.77    14.93    -3.73    64.92    10.18     4.94     0.93     2.99    19.71     7.50P    2.69R    0.38  
Rotherham        7    7   -4       0.28    55.46     0.81    46.28    10.29   -27.44     0.02     0.05     0.72     0.16P   48.65R   20.00  
Birmingham       7    6   -7      -2.26    27.10    -4.93    50.60    10.24   -21.84     0.02     0.11     1.66     0.39P   31.88R   10.03  
Bolton           7    5   -5      -4.42    11.01    -4.68    56.15    10.44    -8.87     0.15     0.52     5.30     1.64P   15.08R    3.43  
Huddersfield     7    5   -8      -2.50    24.59    -4.49    48.45    10.11   -24.24     0.01     0.06     0.90     0.17P   39.40R   13.89  
Blackpool        7    1   -7      -6.45     1.67    -3.89    43.03     9.69   -23.72     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.05P   60.30R   28.80  
Fulham           7    1  -12      -7.38     1.19    -9.73    54.38    11.39   -12.90     0.16     0.50     4.88     1.63P   22.11R    7.05  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 17 September 2014, Fleetwood_Town 0 0 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bristol_City      8   20  +11       6.44    95.34     6.98    83.05    10.44    27.48    30.27    48.05    82.33    56.89P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough      8   16   +5       2.35    71.67     0.89    79.45    10.42    22.21    18.87    34.63    72.27    45.02P    0.17R    0.00  
Chesterfield      7   14   +5       3.92    85.42     4.30    68.68    11.12     6.89     4.03     9.03    33.86    14.40P    3.42R    0.32  
MK_Dons           7   13   +5       2.18    71.79     3.21    74.66    10.77    17.45     9.76    20.17    55.62    28.75P    0.77R    0.06  
Bradford          8   13   +2       2.74    75.97     2.99    64.06    10.11     0.89     1.00     2.93    18.22     5.96P    6.03R    0.57  
Sheff_Utd         7   13   +2       2.75    77.31     0.96    73.65    10.16    12.68     6.55    15.44    50.99    24.67P    0.72R    0.03  
Swindon           7   12   +4      -0.03    49.02     0.38    72.22    10.57    14.13     6.37    14.08    46.33    22.27P    1.20R    0.07  
Fleetwood_Town    8   12   +2       2.58    75.32     4.08    53.58    10.28   -12.74     0.09     0.35     3.55     0.94P   30.97R    5.48  
Coventry          8   12   +1       0.64    56.40     0.43    66.89    10.59     5.00     2.33     5.92    27.36    10.69P    4.09R    0.30  
Gillingham        8   11   -1       1.76    68.33     1.84    56.81    10.29   -10.90     0.20     0.70     6.11     1.61P   20.79R    3.04  
Rochdale          8   10   +6      -0.26    48.43     7.17    59.76    11.04     1.90     0.66     1.92    12.23     4.02P   14.55R    2.11  
Preston           7   10   +3      -1.56    33.34     0.05    74.03    10.61    18.84     8.87    18.65    53.68    29.06P    0.81R    0.04  
Oldham            8   10   +0      -0.06    50.46     1.12    57.42     9.94    -6.11     0.17     0.64     6.22     1.69P   17.71R    2.32  
Crawley_Town      8   10   -6       0.69    58.66    -3.88    56.07     9.79   -13.80     0.13     0.44     4.34     1.09P   22.06R    3.20  
Barnsley          7    9   +1      -2.34    27.00    -1.61    67.48    11.24     8.49     3.39     8.10    31.01    14.23P    4.43R    0.38  
Notts_County      7    9   +1      -0.20    48.67     1.65    63.11    10.54     2.10     0.98     2.72    17.26     5.91P    7.92R    0.83  
Yeovil            8    9   -3      -2.60    26.36    -3.97    59.85    10.77    -4.77     0.61     1.74    11.22     4.02P   14.09R    1.88  
Doncaster         7    8   -3      -1.86    31.32    -3.46    62.41    10.87    -1.04     1.10     2.88    16.19     6.04P    9.65R    1.13  
Leyton_Orient     7    7   -1      -4.54    10.81    -3.80    70.76    10.45    14.36     4.40    10.81    41.48    20.12P    1.75R    0.14  
Walsall           8    7   -4      -3.82    16.38    -3.96    56.53     9.88    -6.79     0.16     0.49     5.18     1.51P   19.63R    2.58  
Scunthorpe        8    7  -11      -0.89    42.98    -6.01    46.75    10.40   -30.76     0.01     0.05     0.88     0.17P   58.26R   19.82  
Colchester        8    5   -4      -3.94    14.97    -1.09    52.34    10.17   -11.02     0.05     0.20     2.51     0.66P   34.35R    7.22  
Port_Vale         8    5   -7      -3.96    15.30    -3.76    47.62    10.10   -22.23     0.01     0.06     0.91     0.22P   53.73R   15.62  
Crewe             7    4   -8      -3.49    16.55    -4.52    42.56     9.95   -32.27     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.04P   72.86R   32.85  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 September 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 3 0 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Burton_Albion         8   19   +5       6.77    95.80     3.12    74.05     9.89     9.86    11.04    32.43    64.42    39.84P    0.18R    0.04  
Bury                  8   17   +7       3.97    84.32     3.93    77.79    10.08    20.08    21.05    48.34    77.71    56.50P    0.07R    0.02  
Wycombe               8   17   +6       5.76    93.24     5.45    70.98     9.94     9.37     6.64    22.80    53.28    29.80P    0.51R    0.15  
Morecambe             8   16   +5       4.74    88.80     4.58    66.57    10.03     3.11     3.29    12.46    36.07    17.26P    1.66R    0.56  
Northampton           8   14   +5       2.99    78.01     4.85    64.88     9.89     3.67     2.04     9.32    29.98    14.00P    2.24R    0.81  
Shrewsbury            8   14   +5       0.53    55.09     1.30    77.27    10.40    21.41    20.53    46.91    75.84    56.01P    0.08R    0.01  
Southend              8   14   +3       1.09    60.65     0.15    74.34     9.77    15.25    11.83    34.22    66.92    44.03P    0.13R    0.04  
Cheltenham            8   14   +2       3.25    80.19     2.20    66.14    10.02     2.77     2.71    11.54    34.14    16.62P    1.75R    0.59  
Portsmouth            8   13   +2       1.10    61.37     0.50    67.47    10.14     5.71     3.76    14.60    39.61    20.60P    1.47R    0.50  
Mansfield             8   12   -1       2.03    70.55     0.35    57.32     9.71   -10.47     0.37     1.92     9.80     3.35P   10.62R    4.66  
Cambridge_Utd         8   11   +4       0.96    60.62     5.34    55.32    10.24    -7.25     0.35     1.82     8.57     3.15P   15.69R    7.57  
AFC_Wimbledon         8   11   +2       1.10    62.19     3.56    59.99    10.12    -2.81     0.76     3.98    16.64     6.47P    7.10R    3.06  
Plymouth              8   10   +2      -0.29    47.95     2.79    60.77     9.88     0.84     0.71     4.32    18.00     7.36P    5.53R    2.29  
Stevenage             8   10   -3      -1.35    37.28    -3.63    68.38    10.88     6.66     5.36    17.93    43.83    25.37P    1.78R    0.67  
Tranmere              8    9   +0      -3.73    17.29    -2.67    69.71    10.80    13.06     6.96    22.08    49.57    30.74P    1.20R    0.46  
York                  8    9   -1      -1.71    33.37    -0.80    60.87     9.79    -0.29     0.76     4.29    17.84     7.55P    5.28R    2.14  
Newport_County        8    9   -2      -0.48    46.30     0.24    54.27     9.88   -11.94     0.15     1.09     6.09     2.03P   18.12R    9.28  
Luton                 8    9   -2      -1.14    39.37    -1.01    57.75    10.39    -5.92     0.55     2.91    12.42     5.06P   10.85R    5.04  
Dag_&_Red             8    7   -6      -2.92    22.89    -4.38    51.87     9.98   -17.05     0.08     0.62     3.96     1.30P   25.65R   14.00  
Accrington_Stanley    8    7   -7      -1.94    31.28    -3.92    53.68    10.02   -15.11     0.13     0.93     5.41     1.84P   20.26R   10.61  
Hartlepool            8    7   -7      -2.63    25.11    -5.24    56.17     9.78   -10.46     0.26     1.44     8.06     2.89P   13.16R    6.19  
Oxford_Utd            8    6   -2      -5.07     9.08    -2.31    57.38     9.91    -2.53     0.36     2.15    10.87     4.26P   10.41R    4.76  
Exeter                8    6   -5      -4.57    11.78    -4.53    54.85     9.95    -9.42     0.20     1.26     6.95     2.50P   16.12R    8.15  
Carlisle              8    3  -12      -6.53     3.61    -9.86    50.89    10.66   -18.55     0.10     0.65     4.03     1.46P   30.14R   18.39  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 September 2014, Aldershot 1 3 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barnet           10   22  +17       2.76    73.11     8.55    83.10     9.39    35.49    14.80    65.49    28.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Torquay          10   21  +12       1.43    62.24     3.04    90.43     9.61    43.92    43.16    86.77    58.29P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           10   21  +11       5.58    90.27     8.40    73.51     9.76    16.05     2.65    26.72     6.87P    0.06R    0.00  
Halifax          10   20   +8       3.48    78.41     3.60    79.36     9.65    24.42     8.00    49.46    17.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead        10   20   +5       4.03    82.57     1.18    76.84     9.70    16.74     4.70    38.15    11.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham          10   19   +1       4.05    82.27    -0.86    74.38     9.52    10.68     2.61    28.32     7.74P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   10   18   +8       1.82    66.08     4.20    73.86     9.52    18.30     2.61    27.40     8.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Kidderminster    10   18   +7       0.51    54.25     1.15    74.02     9.53    17.43     2.70    28.10     8.65P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield     10   17   +4       2.33    69.86     2.48    68.30     9.38     7.43     0.61    11.40     2.57P    0.18R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers   10   17   +1      -0.27    47.07    -4.69    81.35     9.82    24.33    11.09    57.54    25.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh        10   16   +4       2.36    69.47     4.20    59.01    10.33    -7.44     0.12     3.07     0.62P    3.63R    0.43  
Forest_Green     10   16   +4       0.03    50.22     0.51    71.19     9.48    13.25     1.35    18.81     5.04P    0.08R    0.00  
Grimsby          10   13  +10      -4.06    16.75     4.55    77.08     9.38    32.73     4.79    41.23    15.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     10   13   -4       1.48    64.25    -0.43    63.81     9.73    -1.98     0.24     5.48     1.03P    1.11R    0.08  
Aldershot        10   12   +0      -3.13    23.75    -2.19    68.00     9.48    10.53     0.55    11.33     2.98P    0.23R    0.01  
Chester          10   10   -8       1.02    61.74    -0.52    49.75     9.14   -23.40     0.00     0.10     0.01P   16.91R    2.85  
Dartford         10    9   -6      -2.23    30.09    -2.09    48.73     9.19   -20.92     0.00     0.10     0.01P   19.03R    3.06  
Welling          10    9   -8      -1.99    32.48    -3.65    52.66     9.27   -16.56     0.00     0.28     0.02P   10.21R    1.42  
Altrincham       10    8   -8      -2.03    33.67    -1.85    42.42     9.74   -34.11     0.00     0.04     0.02P   44.77R   14.13  
Southport        10    8   -8      -3.21    22.90    -3.75    46.97     9.14   -24.66     0.00     0.06     0.01P   24.82R    4.58  
Nuneaton         10    8  -12      -1.80    33.83    -6.14    49.67     9.20   -23.13     0.00     0.12     0.01P   17.09R    2.95  
Dover_Athletic   10    7  -11      -1.78    35.48    -2.74    40.71     9.58   -37.60     0.00     0.01     0.00    52.20R   17.67  
Alfreton_Town    10    7  -15      -3.57    19.29    -9.21    45.33     9.35   -35.17     0.00     0.03     0.00P   32.56R    7.50  
AFC_Telford      10    3  -12      -6.25     5.32    -3.73    34.02     9.57   -46.32     0.00     0.01     0.00    76.98R   45.32