Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 2 May 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 April 2014, Arsenal 3 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        36   80  +50       7.50    81.55     9.70    84.66     1.56    53.35    47.85    86.90   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          36   78  +43       5.31    73.74     6.29    82.85     1.46    46.52     6.32    38.22    99.70   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         35   77  +58       0.36    50.50     7.93    83.76     1.87    62.83    45.83    74.88    99.73   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          36   73  +24       7.31    80.17    -1.67    77.26     1.71    26.40     0.00     0.00     0.57    98.12   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          36   69  +21       8.07    82.47     4.13    71.86     1.80    21.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.88    98.52     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        36   66   +3      10.02    87.48    -6.12    69.60     1.79     4.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.12     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          35   60  +20      -6.06    23.40    -8.72    66.40     2.05    23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.36     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      36   52   +7       2.66    62.20     8.78    54.23     1.80     6.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        36   46  -18       4.96    72.61    -2.87    48.32     1.53   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            36   44  -11       2.12    60.83     0.91    46.90     1.79   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   43  -15       7.93    83.63     6.99    44.74     1.63   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          36   39   -1      -8.36    16.90     3.78    41.92     1.86    -0.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hull             35   37   -9      -0.51    48.60     7.62    39.54     1.95   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham         36   37  -11      -6.56    22.48    -0.98    38.57     1.51   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom        35   36  -12      -7.18    19.95    -2.33    39.46     2.12   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      35   35  -17      -4.05    32.03    -1.46    37.60     1.86   -20.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.54R    0.00  
Sunderland       35   32  -20      -7.25    19.17    -4.81    35.37     2.10   -21.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.37R    1.01  
Norwich          36   32  -32      -3.36    34.87    -7.90    33.07     1.36   -35.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.32R   10.81  
Fulham           36   31  -42      -3.61    33.48   -13.68    33.57     1.78   -42.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.80R   17.06  
Cardiff          36   30  -38      -1.30    44.87    -5.60    31.35     1.51   -40.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.57R   71.12  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 April 2014, Birmingham 0 1 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       45   99  +39      17.23    96.01     8.64   101.35     1.08    40.55   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         45   92  +35      15.35    93.71    13.09    93.28     1.29    34.87     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           45   84  +32       9.59    82.60    12.74    85.55     1.33    32.26     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.48P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             45   77  +15       5.37    69.86     0.43    78.74     1.28    15.51     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.50P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           45   73  +14      -0.10    49.51    -2.76    74.34     1.30    13.97     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.00P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         45   70  +14      -2.58    40.32    -2.34    71.45     1.31    14.13     0.00     0.00    68.88    16.55P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        45   69  +14      -1.76    42.85     0.71    70.34     1.28    13.98     0.00     0.00    31.03     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       45   67   +7       1.49    55.87     1.46    68.39     1.30     7.03     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     45   66   +2       7.57    76.84     7.78    67.39     1.32     2.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         45   65   +5       4.24    66.34     6.20    66.63     1.31     5.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   45   65   +4       1.08    54.42     0.85    66.37     1.28     4.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   45   61   +9      -3.03    38.67     5.35    62.64     1.30     9.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford         45   60  +13     -10.63    15.31    -0.44    61.98     1.26    13.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          45   58   -1      -6.83    25.28    -5.62    59.77     1.30    -0.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    45   56   -8      -1.56    44.57    -1.26    57.21     1.29    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       45   53   -1      -6.02    28.05     3.22    54.11     1.26    -1.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    45   50  -10      -3.76    35.88     2.07    50.81     1.16   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton        45   48  -23      -4.77    32.07   -10.56    49.16     1.25   -23.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       45   46  -25      -7.07    24.09   -12.58    47.55     1.29   -24.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26R    0.00  
Millwall        45   45  -29      -3.40    37.03    -9.05    46.35     1.31   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.32R    0.00  
Doncaster       45   44  -30       0.01    51.07    -4.02    44.47     0.92   -31.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.06R    0.00  
Birmingham      45   43  -16     -14.38     7.72    -8.83    43.99     1.23   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.37R    0.00  
Barnsley        45   39  -32      -6.35    25.98    -6.89    39.98     1.19   -32.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.85  
Yeovil          45   37  -28      -5.74    28.14     1.82    38.09     1.24   -28.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.15  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 April 2014, Crawley_Town 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   45  100  +55       7.64    78.13     8.33   102.47     1.00    56.85   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       45   91  +27      15.60    93.65     6.84    93.06     1.22    28.01     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         45   85  +27      12.06    88.13    10.45    86.77     1.30    27.58     0.00     0.00   100.00    26.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   45   83  +38       6.66    74.10    16.14    84.41     1.31    38.05     0.00     0.00   100.00    30.73P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       45   83  +27      13.91    90.64    16.17    84.13     1.28    26.62     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.29P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    45   73  +14      -0.82    46.78    -4.36    75.07     1.24    15.13     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.89P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         45   66   +5      -3.79    35.53    -6.98    67.62     1.32     5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       45   64   +1      -2.97    38.67    -7.01    65.67     1.30     1.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         45   60   +0      -6.71    25.68    -7.33    61.33     1.30    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       45   60  -14       7.13    75.89     0.81    60.74     1.14   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall         45   58   +1      -3.45    37.00     0.96    59.69     1.29     1.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    45   57   +3      -9.62    18.60    -4.01    58.38     1.31     3.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford        45   56   +2       0.81    53.91    11.25    57.25     1.28     1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town    45   56   -6      -0.85    47.08     0.80    57.36     1.31    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham          45   55   -9       1.01    54.73     1.89    56.44     1.31    -8.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gillingham      45   52  -19       1.61    57.06    -0.34    53.56     1.31   -18.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry        45   51   -2      -2.92    39.31    -4.45    52.07     1.24    -2.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester      45   50   -9      -4.41    33.50     2.01    51.04     1.22    -9.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    45   49  -13     -10.02    16.41    -8.04    50.30     1.29   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.67R    0.00  
Crewe           45   48  -27       0.53    53.24    -3.57    48.99     1.22   -27.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.64R    0.00  
Tranmere        45   47  -26      -5.02    31.13   -11.09    48.47     1.30   -25.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.09R    0.00  
Carlisle        45   45  -30      -2.09    42.44    -6.89    45.38     0.83   -31.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.59R    0.00  
Stevenage       45   42  -24      -8.31    19.90    -6.86    42.71     1.08   -25.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   41.57  
Shrewsbury      45   41  -21      -9.51    16.45    -4.71    42.18     1.28   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   58.43  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 April 2014, Burton_Albion 0 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         45   81  +30       2.99    61.45     6.77    82.74     1.29    30.52    58.86   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             45   81  +22       9.03    80.64     6.97    82.71     1.31    22.49    28.07   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           45   80  +24       2.42    58.96     1.10    81.78     1.27    24.55    13.07   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       45   76  +15       9.43    81.75     7.70    77.00     1.21    14.48     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.32P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        45   72   +6       9.09    81.39     3.56    73.08     1.22     5.63     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.23P    0.00     0.00  
York                 45   70  +11       8.39    80.09     9.80    70.95     1.18    10.45     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.04P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             45   69  +16      -1.93    42.54     2.66    70.63     1.28    16.37     0.00     0.00   100.00    32.41P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   62   +5      -1.46    44.70     1.75    63.43     1.28     5.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             45   59   -7       2.72    61.09    -0.55    60.08     1.23    -7.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   58   +8     -10.39    16.34    -1.83    59.53     1.31     8.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           45   58  -10      -6.30    27.84   -14.01    59.65     1.30    -9.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   57   -7       0.62    53.03    -0.10    58.18     1.26    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   57  -10       4.74    68.53     3.06    58.17     1.26   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        45   56   -7       2.55    60.80     4.22    57.17     1.26    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       45   55   -4       2.99    62.30     9.76    56.05     1.25    -4.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           45   55   -9      -4.36    33.81    -6.27    56.54     1.30    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   54   -3      -2.87    39.33     3.18    55.56     1.30    -2.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           45   53   -4      -9.69    17.53    -6.10    54.52     1.30    -3.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   53  -12      -2.62    40.38    -3.55    54.21     1.28   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   52   -5      -9.02    19.13    -4.37    53.20     1.27    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       45   50  -10      -5.48    29.45    -2.01    51.55     1.30    -9.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.31R    0.00  
Northampton          45   50  -17      -4.54    32.98    -7.89    51.27     1.26   -17.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.87R    0.00  
Wycombe              45   47  -11      -9.34    17.74    -4.51    48.32     1.28   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.82R   36.53  
Torquay              45   45  -21      -7.95    21.27    -9.36    46.39     1.28   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   63.47  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 April 2014, Aldershot 1 2 Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            46  101  +67       7.83    79.49    18.07   101.00     0.00    67.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    46   82  +37       4.17    66.06    14.64    82.00     0.00    37.00     0.00   100.00    31.60P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        46   79  +22       8.12    78.67     9.95    79.00     0.00    22.00     0.00   100.00    20.36P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          46   78  +19       1.55    55.75    -1.32    78.00     0.00    19.00     0.00   100.00    28.96P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          46   77  +27       4.87    67.44    12.67    77.00     0.00    27.00     0.00   100.00    19.08P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   46   74  +18       6.64    74.44    11.20    74.00     0.00    18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    46   72   +7      -1.00    46.22    -8.33    72.00     0.00     7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet           46   70   +5      -1.51    44.32    -8.01    70.00     0.00     5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    46   70   -5      11.37    86.65     3.40    70.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking           46   68   -3       8.80    80.73     4.09    68.00     0.00    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     46   67  +14      -4.07    34.46     1.54    67.00     0.00    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        46   67   -5      10.57    84.80     5.40    67.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         46   66   -6       9.04    81.92     2.96    66.00     0.00    -6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     46   65   +1       3.03    62.16     2.72    65.00     0.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     46   61   -1      -2.48    40.78    -1.44    61.00     0.00    -1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Welling          46   60   -2       1.80    57.50     5.59    60.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          46   59   +0     -11.90    12.00   -12.06    59.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        46   53  -18      -0.73    47.72    -2.15    53.00     0.00   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        46   51   +7     -12.60    11.38    -9.30    51.00     0.00     7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford         46   51  -19      -7.87    21.95   -12.85    51.00     0.00   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chester          46   51  -21       1.90    58.55     1.09    51.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dartford         46   44  -25      -8.60    19.01    -8.18    44.00     0.00   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Tamworth         46   39  -38      -5.24    29.31    -7.76    39.00     0.00   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hyde_United      46   10  -81     -21.88     0.14   -21.91    10.00     0.00   -81.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10