Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 1 May 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 April 2014, Arsenal 3 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        36   80  +50       7.47    81.53     9.68    84.66     1.56    53.36    48.07    86.98   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          36   78  +43       5.42    74.02     6.43    82.85     1.46    46.50     6.54    38.38    99.68   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         35   77  +58       0.39    50.81     8.01    83.74     1.88    62.78    45.39    74.64    99.66   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          36   73  +24       7.24    79.72    -1.78    77.27     1.71    26.42     0.00     0.00     0.67    98.06   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          36   69  +21       7.95    81.94     3.92    71.87     1.81    21.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.94    98.59     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        36   66   +3       9.94    87.27    -6.24    69.60     1.80     4.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.26     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          35   60  +20      -5.91    23.68    -8.58    66.39     2.03    23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.14     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      36   52   +7       2.63    62.22     8.77    54.23     1.80     6.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        36   46  -18       4.99    72.52    -2.78    48.31     1.53   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            36   44  -11       2.05    60.28     0.86    46.90     1.79   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   43  -15       7.93    83.87     7.01    44.73     1.63   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          36   39   -1      -8.43    16.41     3.65    41.93     1.86    -0.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hull             35   37   -9      -0.46    48.60     7.66    39.53     1.95   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham         36   37  -11      -6.48    22.61    -0.89    38.57     1.52   -13.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
West_Brom        35   36  -12      -7.33    19.47    -2.55    39.49     2.12   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      35   35  -17      -4.00    32.22    -1.40    37.61     1.85   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.51R    0.00  
Sunderland       35   32  -20      -7.14    19.53    -4.62    35.35     2.09   -21.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.48R    1.13  
Norwich          36   32  -32      -3.38    34.38    -7.92    33.07     1.35   -35.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.48R   10.77  
Fulham           36   31  -42      -3.70    33.38   -13.82    33.58     1.77   -42.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.57R   17.01  
Cardiff          36   30  -38      -1.21    45.38    -5.40    31.35     1.51   -40.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.59R   71.09  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 April 2014, Birmingham 0 1 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       45   99  +39      17.32    95.96     8.77   101.33     1.09    40.52   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         45   92  +35      15.44    93.83    13.23    93.28     1.29    34.87     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           45   84  +32       9.62    82.69    12.78    85.55     1.33    32.26     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.99P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             45   77  +15       5.36    69.78     0.47    78.74     1.28    15.51     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.35P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           45   73  +14       0.06    50.09    -2.52    74.33     1.30    13.96     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.93P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         45   70  +14      -2.52    40.40    -2.22    71.46     1.31    14.13     0.00     0.00    68.71    16.19P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        45   69  +14      -1.86    42.66     0.61    70.35     1.28    14.00     0.00     0.00    31.21     7.54P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       45   67   +7       1.35    55.34     1.22    68.40     1.30     7.04     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     45   66   +2       7.52    76.67     7.61    67.41     1.32     2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         45   65   +5       4.34    66.90     6.36    66.62     1.31     5.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   45   65   +4       1.42    55.81     1.36    66.36     1.28     4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   45   61   +9      -3.14    38.15     5.19    62.64     1.30     9.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford         45   60  +13     -10.67    15.21    -0.63    61.99     1.26    13.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          45   58   -1      -6.70    25.48    -5.39    59.77     1.31    -0.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    45   56   -8      -1.36    45.13    -0.99    57.21     1.30    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       45   53   -1      -5.93    28.32     3.33    54.12     1.26    -1.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    45   50  -10      -3.84    35.82     1.96    50.80     1.16   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton        45   48  -23      -4.98    31.16   -10.93    49.16     1.25   -23.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       45   46  -25      -7.04    24.25   -12.54    47.56     1.29   -24.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26R    0.00  
Millwall        45   45  -29      -3.34    37.36    -8.97    46.33     1.31   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.51R    0.00  
Doncaster       45   44  -30      -0.08    50.67    -4.14    44.49     0.93   -31.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.98R    0.00  
Birmingham      45   43  -16     -14.43     7.70    -8.93    44.00     1.23   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.26R    0.00  
Barnsley        45   39  -32      -6.48    25.48    -7.08    39.99     1.20   -32.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   21.15  
Yeovil          45   37  -28      -5.93    27.24     1.46    38.09     1.24   -28.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   78.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 April 2014, Crawley_Town 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   45  100  +55       7.97    79.27     8.86   102.47     1.01    56.86   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       45   91  +27      15.70    93.91     6.92    93.07     1.21    28.02     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         45   85  +27      12.20    88.30    10.61    86.77     1.30    27.58     0.00     0.00   100.00    26.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   45   83  +38       6.37    73.03    15.65    84.40     1.31    38.05     0.00     0.00   100.00    30.62P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       45   83  +27      13.90    90.47    16.06    84.15     1.28    26.65     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.13P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    45   73  +14      -0.85    46.64    -4.45    75.08     1.24    15.14     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         45   66   +5      -3.85    35.42    -7.10    67.61     1.33     5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       45   64   +1      -3.00    38.50    -7.07    65.66     1.31     1.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         45   60   +0      -6.93    25.08    -7.57    61.34     1.31    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       45   60  -14       7.03    75.41     0.67    60.74     1.14   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall         45   58   +1      -3.74    35.98     0.58    59.69     1.29     1.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    45   57   +3      -9.67    18.30    -4.04    58.39     1.31     3.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford        45   56   +2       0.95    54.17    11.44    57.24     1.28     1.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town    45   56   -6      -0.73    47.63     0.94    57.35     1.31    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham          45   55   -9       0.99    54.58     1.85    56.45     1.31    -8.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gillingham      45   52  -19       1.63    56.98    -0.22    53.57     1.32   -18.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry        45   51   -2      -2.80    39.65    -4.26    52.08     1.25    -2.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester      45   50   -9      -4.42    33.41     2.03    51.03     1.21    -9.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    45   49  -13     -10.00    16.64    -7.95    50.29     1.30   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.85R    0.00  
Crewe           45   48  -27       0.40    52.46    -3.74    48.99     1.22   -27.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.87R    0.00  
Tranmere        45   47  -26      -5.26    30.30   -11.38    48.48     1.30   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.72R    0.00  
Carlisle        45   45  -30      -1.84    43.56    -6.55    45.39     0.84   -31.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.56R    0.00  
Stevenage       45   42  -24      -8.22    20.38    -6.78    42.71     1.08   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   41.59  
Shrewsbury      45   41  -21      -9.35    16.97    -4.48    42.18     1.28   -21.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   58.41  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 April 2014, Burton_Albion 0 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         45   81  +30       2.76    60.57     6.41    82.77     1.29    30.56    60.23   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             45   81  +22       8.93    80.17     6.79    82.70     1.31    22.48    27.16   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           45   80  +24       2.58    59.29     1.33    81.77     1.27    24.55    12.61   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       45   76  +15       9.59    82.66     7.93    76.97     1.21    14.44     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        45   72   +6       9.12    81.33     3.58    73.07     1.22     5.63     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.11P    0.00     0.00  
York                 45   70  +11       8.40    79.75     9.84    70.95     1.17    10.45     0.00     0.00   100.00    20.87P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             45   69  +16      -2.19    41.72     2.30    70.63     1.28    16.37     0.00     0.00   100.00    33.02P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   62   +5      -1.53    44.46     1.73    63.43     1.28     5.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             45   59   -7       2.57    60.62    -0.77    60.08     1.24    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   58   +8     -10.24    16.62    -1.60    59.53     1.31     8.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           45   58  -10      -6.35    27.78   -14.02    59.64     1.30    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   57   -7       0.84    54.02     0.20    58.18     1.27    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   57  -10       4.42    67.24     2.63    58.17     1.26   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        45   56   -7       2.58    60.75     4.23    57.17     1.26    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       45   55   -4       3.25    62.92    10.20    56.05     1.25    -4.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           45   55   -9      -4.21    34.54    -6.04    56.54     1.30    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   54   -3      -2.78    39.61     3.27    55.56     1.30    -2.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           45   53   -4      -9.39    18.56    -5.71    54.52     1.30    -3.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   53  -12      -2.76    39.78    -3.72    54.21     1.28   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   52   -5      -9.30    18.06    -4.84    53.20     1.27    -5.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       45   50  -10      -5.54    29.38    -2.06    51.55     1.30    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.28R    0.00  
Northampton          45   50  -17      -4.35    33.66    -7.66    51.27     1.26   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.23R    0.00  
Wycombe              45   47  -11      -9.55    17.09    -4.74    48.33     1.28   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.49R   36.30  
Torquay              45   45  -21      -7.92    21.62    -9.28    46.38     1.29   -20.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   63.70  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 April 2014, Aldershot 1 2 Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            46  101  +67       7.89    79.11    18.09   101.00     0.00    67.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    46   82  +37       4.20    66.16    14.69    82.00     0.00    37.00     0.00   100.00    31.51P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        46   79  +22       8.04    78.63     9.89    79.00     0.00    22.00     0.00   100.00    20.24P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          46   78  +19       1.35    55.09    -1.57    78.00     0.00    19.00     0.00   100.00    29.13P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          46   77  +27       4.89    67.73    12.70    77.00     0.00    27.00     0.00   100.00    19.13P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   46   74  +18       6.39    73.77    10.89    74.00     0.00    18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    46   72   +7      -0.97    46.10    -8.33    72.00     0.00     7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet           46   70   +5      -1.48    44.18    -7.93    70.00     0.00     5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    46   70   -5      11.30    86.60     3.25    70.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking           46   68   -3       8.63    80.23     3.89    68.00     0.00    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     46   67  +14      -4.19    34.42     1.34    67.00     0.00    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        46   67   -5      10.29    84.00     4.94    67.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         46   66   -6       8.87    81.53     2.68    66.00     0.00    -6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     46   65   +1       3.24    62.89     3.11    65.00     0.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     46   61   -1      -2.23    41.61    -1.11    61.00     0.00    -1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Welling          46   60   -2       1.89    57.67     5.79    60.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          46   59   +0     -12.06    11.77   -12.35    59.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        46   53  -18      -0.67    47.95    -2.12    53.00     0.00   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        46   51   +7     -12.67    10.97    -9.45    51.00     0.00     7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford         46   51  -19      -7.95    21.57   -13.03    51.00     0.00   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chester          46   51  -21       2.26    59.85     1.58    51.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dartford         46   44  -25      -8.37    19.79    -7.83    44.00     0.00   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Tamworth         46   39  -38      -5.15    29.83    -7.49    39.00     0.00   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hyde_United      46   10  -81     -21.78     0.13   -21.59    10.00     0.00   -81.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10