Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 30 April 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 April 2014, Arsenal 3 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        36   80  +50       7.42    81.06     9.57    84.67     1.55    53.38    48.05    87.13   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          36   78  +43       5.51    74.63     6.57    82.84     1.46    46.48     6.34    37.96    99.73   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         35   77  +58       0.37    50.66     8.01    83.76     1.87    62.79    45.61    74.90    99.67   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          36   73  +24       7.27    79.80    -1.71    77.27     1.70    26.41     0.00     0.00     0.60    98.01   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          36   69  +21       7.80    81.53     3.71    71.90     1.81    21.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.99    98.66     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        36   66   +3      10.13    87.63    -5.95    69.58     1.81     4.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          35   60  +20      -5.86    23.93    -8.47    66.39     2.05    23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.40     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      36   52   +7       2.75    62.79     8.94    54.24     1.80     6.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        36   46  -18       5.03    72.73    -2.68    48.30     1.53   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            36   44  -11       2.32    61.80     1.26    46.87     1.80   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   43  -15       7.75    83.12     6.73    44.74     1.64   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          36   39   -1      -8.41    16.71     3.66    41.92     1.85    -0.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hull             35   37   -9      -0.18    50.09     8.04    39.52     1.94   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham         36   37  -11      -6.59    22.27    -1.13    38.57     1.51   -13.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
West_Brom        35   36  -12      -7.41    19.14    -2.72    39.47     2.12   -13.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      35   35  -17      -4.02    31.99    -1.46    37.61     1.86   -20.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.64R    0.01  
Sunderland       35   32  -20      -7.28    18.91    -4.81    35.37     2.09   -21.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.37R    1.06  
Norwich          36   32  -32      -3.45    34.33    -8.05    33.07     1.36   -35.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.67R   10.94  
Fulham           36   31  -42      -3.67    33.33   -13.67    33.58     1.78   -42.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.38R   17.14  
Cardiff          36   30  -38      -1.42    44.17    -5.86    31.36     1.51   -40.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.52R   70.85  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 April 2014, Birmingham 0 1 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       45   99  +39      17.25    95.92     8.74   101.35     1.08    40.55   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         45   92  +35      15.54    93.94    13.30    93.27     1.29    34.86     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           45   84  +32       9.75    82.90    13.02    85.54     1.32    32.24     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.82P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             45   77  +15       5.41    69.85     0.53    78.74     1.28    15.51     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           45   73  +14       0.13    50.40    -2.44    74.34     1.30    13.96     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.51P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         45   70  +14      -2.60    39.94    -2.33    71.46     1.31    14.14     0.00     0.00    69.19    16.62P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        45   69  +14      -1.79    43.04     0.71    70.34     1.28    13.99     0.00     0.00    30.76     7.59P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       45   67   +7       1.36    55.26     1.22    68.39     1.30     7.04     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     45   66   +2       7.34    76.19     7.36    67.40     1.32     2.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         45   65   +5       4.16    66.18     6.08    66.64     1.31     5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   45   65   +4       1.26    55.12     1.16    66.37     1.29     4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   45   61   +9      -3.24    37.97     5.09    62.65     1.30     9.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford         45   60  +13     -10.59    15.19    -0.41    61.98     1.26    13.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          45   58   -1      -6.41    26.63    -5.05    59.76     1.31    -0.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    45   56   -8      -1.57    44.16    -1.35    57.22     1.29    -8.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       45   53   -1      -6.08    27.44     3.11    54.11     1.26    -1.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    45   50  -10      -4.23    34.20     1.38    50.81     1.16   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton        45   48  -23      -4.93    31.14   -10.79    49.16     1.25   -23.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool       45   46  -25      -7.01    24.14   -12.50    47.55     1.29   -24.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Millwall        45   45  -29      -3.17    37.97    -8.81    46.35     1.31   -29.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.49R    0.00  
Doncaster       45   44  -30       0.05    51.42    -3.83    44.47     0.91   -31.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.55R    0.00  
Birmingham      45   43  -16     -14.56     7.39    -9.16    44.01     1.24   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.73R    0.00  
Barnsley        45   39  -32      -6.11    26.42    -6.41    39.98     1.19   -32.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.99  
Yeovil          45   37  -28      -5.97    27.19     1.40    38.09     1.24   -28.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.01  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 April 2014, Crawley_Town 0 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   45  100  +55       7.71    78.46     8.38   102.48     1.00    56.86   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       45   91  +27      15.88    94.38     7.26    93.07     1.21    28.02     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         45   85  +27      12.32    88.61    10.79    86.76     1.30    27.57     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   45   83  +38       6.45    73.33    15.79    84.40     1.31    38.05     0.00     0.00   100.00    30.72P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       45   83  +27      13.98    90.54    16.25    84.13     1.28    26.62     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.65P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    45   73  +14      -0.99    46.12    -4.65    75.08     1.24    15.15     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.15P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         45   66   +5      -3.98    34.68    -7.18    67.63     1.33     5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       45   64   +1      -3.08    38.08    -7.16    65.66     1.31     1.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         45   60   +0      -6.97    24.99    -7.70    61.34     1.31    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       45   60  -14       7.06    75.76     0.65    60.73     1.13   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall         45   58   +1      -3.69    36.26     0.67    59.69     1.29     1.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    45   57   +3      -9.56    18.41    -3.90    58.39     1.31     3.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford        45   56   +2       0.78    53.65    11.22    57.26     1.28     1.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town    45   56   -6      -0.63    48.15     1.12    57.35     1.31    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham          45   55   -9       1.17    55.48     2.08    56.45     1.31    -8.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gillingham      45   52  -19       1.48    56.43    -0.51    53.57     1.31   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry        45   51   -2      -2.93    39.23    -4.54    52.08     1.25    -2.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Colchester      45   50   -9      -4.68    32.68     1.61    51.04     1.22    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    45   49  -13      -9.78    17.02    -7.57    50.28     1.30   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.83R    0.00  
Crewe           45   48  -27       0.27    52.09    -3.98    48.99     1.23   -27.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.17R    0.00  
Tranmere        45   47  -26      -5.13    30.88   -11.14    48.46     1.30   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.44R    0.00  
Carlisle        45   45  -30      -1.79    43.77    -6.44    45.37     0.83   -31.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.56R    0.00  
Stevenage       45   42  -24      -8.23    20.47    -6.65    42.70     1.08   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   41.40  
Shrewsbury      45   41  -21      -9.30    17.33    -4.40    42.16     1.27   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   58.60  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 27 April 2014, Burton_Albion 0 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         45   81  +30       2.66    59.88     6.26    82.75     1.29    30.54    59.60   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             45   81  +22       9.17    81.22     7.15    82.71     1.31    22.50    27.60   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           45   80  +24       2.73    60.03     1.56    81.77     1.27    24.54    12.79   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       45   76  +15       9.52    82.17     7.85    76.99     1.21    14.46     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.87P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        45   72   +6       9.14    81.58     3.65    73.06     1.21     5.61     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.16P    0.00     0.00  
York                 45   70  +11       8.25    79.49     9.69    70.95     1.18    10.46     0.00     0.00   100.00    20.77P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             45   69  +16      -2.16    41.66     2.32    70.65     1.28    16.39     0.00     0.00   100.00    33.21P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   62   +5      -1.54    44.31     1.68    63.43     1.28     5.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             45   59   -7       2.48    60.33    -0.92    60.10     1.24    -7.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bury                 45   58   +8     -10.18    16.68    -1.60    59.53     1.31     8.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           45   58  -10      -5.94    29.01   -13.43    59.63     1.30    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   57   -7       0.45    52.26    -0.30    58.18     1.26    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   57  -10       4.51    67.68     2.80    58.17     1.26   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        45   56   -7       2.37    59.91     3.95    57.18     1.26    -7.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       45   55   -4       3.30    63.47    10.25    56.04     1.24    -4.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           45   55   -9      -4.41    33.57    -6.34    56.54     1.30    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   54   -3      -2.84    39.36     3.21    55.55     1.30    -2.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           45   53   -4      -9.63    17.86    -6.03    54.52     1.30    -3.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   53  -12      -2.45    41.03    -3.35    54.21     1.28   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   52   -5      -9.25    18.18    -4.79    53.20     1.27    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       45   50  -10      -5.55    29.36    -2.17    51.55     1.30    -9.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.32R    0.00  
Northampton          45   50  -17      -4.50    33.12    -7.85    51.27     1.27   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.96R    0.00  
Wycombe              45   47  -11      -9.46    17.33    -4.57    48.31     1.28   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.72R   36.67  
Torquay              45   45  -21      -7.69    22.22    -9.03    46.39     1.29   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   63.33  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 April 2014, Aldershot 1 2 Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            46  101  +67       7.76    78.98    17.90   101.00     0.00    67.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    46   82  +37       3.99    65.09    14.37    82.00     0.00    37.00     0.00   100.00    31.68P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        46   79  +22       8.27    78.90    10.19    79.00     0.00    22.00     0.00   100.00    19.97P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          46   78  +19       1.53    55.91    -1.30    78.00     0.00    19.00     0.00   100.00    28.92P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          46   77  +27       4.68    67.09    12.41    77.00     0.00    27.00     0.00   100.00    19.44P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   46   74  +18       6.49    74.05    10.94    74.00     0.00    18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    46   72   +7      -1.01    45.94    -8.38    72.00     0.00     7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet           46   70   +5      -1.74    43.40    -8.34    70.00     0.00     5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    46   70   -5      11.18    86.44     3.05    70.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking           46   68   -3       8.78    80.69     4.17    68.00     0.00    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     46   67  +14      -4.16    34.41     1.49    67.00     0.00    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        46   67   -5      10.48    84.38     5.34    67.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         46   66   -6       9.05    82.06     3.01    66.00     0.00    -6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     46   65   +1       2.95    61.88     2.68    65.00     0.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     46   61   -1      -2.36    41.53    -1.36    61.00     0.00    -1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Welling          46   60   -2       1.96    58.27     5.83    60.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          46   59   +0     -12.04    11.70   -12.33    59.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        46   53  -18      -0.57    48.46    -1.91    53.00     0.00   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        46   51   +7     -12.58    11.44    -9.35    51.00     0.00     7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford         46   51  -19      -7.73    21.98   -12.75    51.00     0.00   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chester          46   51  -21       1.98    58.69     1.21    51.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dartford         46   44  -25      -8.19    20.48    -7.53    44.00     0.00   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Tamworth         46   39  -38      -5.17    29.74    -7.61    39.00     0.00   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hyde_United      46   10  -81     -21.84     0.16   -21.73    10.00     0.00   -81.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10