Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 24 April 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Man_City 3 1 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        35   80  +52       8.09    83.91    10.17    86.27     2.06    55.73    79.55    96.37   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          35   75  +41       4.13    68.75     5.08    80.98     1.99    44.03     2.67    22.70    96.18    99.89   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         34   74  +56      -0.38    46.60     7.65    83.01     2.22    62.11    17.78    80.81    98.87    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          35   70  +21       7.02    79.30    -2.31    76.52     2.07    24.85     0.00     0.11     4.60    82.31   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          35   69  +23       8.75    84.89     5.18    73.41     2.25    23.40     0.00     0.00     0.35    17.86    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        35   63   +2       8.85    84.69    -6.31    68.05     2.25     3.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    68.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          34   57  +16      -5.79    24.17    -9.28    65.83     2.31    21.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.46     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      35   49   +5       1.63    57.90     7.80    52.47     2.23     4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        35   46  -15       5.06    72.57    -2.16    48.83     1.84   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            35   44  -10       3.13    65.31     1.48    48.12     2.22    -9.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   43  -13       8.02    84.12     7.00    45.24     1.90   -16.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         35   37  -10      -5.69    25.35    -0.71    39.71     2.00   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Swansea          35   36   -4      -8.47    15.89     2.99    40.68     2.28    -3.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Hull             34   36   -9       0.02    51.12     7.75    39.70     2.35   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      34   35  -14      -3.59    33.88    -0.07    38.65     2.25   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.76R    0.00  
West_Brom        34   33  -13      -8.52    15.38    -2.81    38.16     2.52   -13.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.17R    0.09  
Norwich          35   32  -28      -3.49    34.10    -6.84    33.51     1.64   -32.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.32R   14.40  
Cardiff          35   30  -34      -1.27    45.13    -4.27    32.34     1.94   -36.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.13R   49.56  
Fulham           35   30  -42      -3.31    34.92   -14.08    34.12     2.21   -42.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.26R   19.32  
Sunderland       34   29  -24      -7.19    18.42    -6.27    34.10     2.47   -24.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.69R   16.62  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 April 2014, Bolton 0 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       44   96  +37      16.87    95.65     8.58   100.09     1.70    39.07   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         44   89  +34      14.37    92.89    12.93    92.17     1.80    34.63     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           44   81  +30       8.93    81.03    12.30    84.20     1.88    30.66     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.75P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             44   76  +15       5.73    71.24     0.49    79.80     1.77    16.49     0.00     0.00   100.00    26.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           43   70  +15      -0.35    48.36    -1.84    74.89     2.25    16.12     0.00     0.00    97.97    25.20P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         44   67  +12      -3.00    38.62    -2.40    70.22     1.85    12.69     0.00     0.00    51.83    11.94P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        44   66  +12      -2.38    40.76     0.12    69.42     1.75    13.00     0.00     0.00    33.95     8.14P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   44   65   +7       1.44    55.96     2.32    67.73     1.85     7.01     0.00     0.00     9.30     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         44   65   +6       4.79    68.67     6.01    67.48     1.75     5.62     0.00     0.00     4.07     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       44   64   +5       0.53    52.42     0.44    66.79     1.84     5.08     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     44   63   -1       7.28    76.50     6.75    65.78     1.87    -0.96     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         43   60  +17      -9.47    17.27     1.05    64.71     2.23    17.88     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   44   58   +7      -3.54    36.34     4.89    61.57     1.81     8.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bolton          44   55   -3      -7.40    23.27    -6.10    57.98     1.85    -2.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       44   53   +1      -5.45    29.62     3.94    55.61     1.83     0.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    44   53  -10      -2.53    40.62    -2.30    55.34     1.83   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    44   50   -8      -3.61    36.24     2.18    51.76     1.68    -9.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton        43   45  -23      -5.22    29.53   -11.09    48.62     2.20   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.32R    0.00  
Doncaster       44   44  -28       0.42    52.93    -3.50    45.46     1.54   -30.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.87R    0.00  
Millwall        44   44  -29      -3.32    36.93    -9.45    46.09     1.69   -29.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.24R    0.00  
Birmingham      43   43  -13     -12.86     9.59    -7.71    46.90     2.26   -13.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.87R    0.00  
Blackpool       44   43  -27      -7.99    20.93   -13.49    45.30     1.71   -27.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.33R    0.11  
Barnsley        44   39  -30      -5.88    27.07    -6.26    40.78     1.64   -31.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.37R   25.62  
Yeovil          44   37  -26      -5.50    28.58     2.14    38.78     1.63   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   74.27  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Crewe 0 0 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   44   99  +55       8.36    80.74     8.74   103.41     1.63    57.74   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       44   91  +30      16.19    94.88     8.71    94.80     1.77    31.53     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       44   82  +27      14.40    91.65    16.27    84.71     1.85    26.92     0.00     0.00   100.00    19.31P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         44   82  +25      11.69    87.66    10.29    85.80     1.80    26.57     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   44   80  +36       6.03    72.42    15.60    83.43     1.82    37.04     0.00     0.00   100.00    29.76P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    44   70  +12      -1.42    44.72    -4.77    73.72     1.82    13.53     0.00     0.00    96.47    24.35P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         44   66   +7      -3.57    36.10    -6.68    69.15     1.88     7.59     0.00     0.00     3.53     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       43   60   +0      -3.68    35.63    -7.23    64.66     2.27     0.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       44   60  -13       8.11    78.84     1.19    61.97     1.71   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         44   59   +0      -6.71    25.58    -7.84    61.51     1.85    -0.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall         44   58   +2      -2.53    40.15     1.21    61.19     1.82     2.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    44   56   +3      -9.30    18.73    -4.05    59.43     1.82     4.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town    43   55   -5       0.95    54.66     1.95    59.37     2.25    -4.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford        44   53   +1      -0.06    50.43    11.34    55.68     1.82     0.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gillingham      44   52  -17       1.80    57.75    -0.27    54.31     1.74   -17.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham          43   51  -10       0.01    50.78     1.33    55.02     2.26   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Coventry        44   50   -2      -2.74    39.68    -4.84    51.93     1.72    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Colchester      44   47  -12      -4.77    31.66     0.79    49.03     1.72   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.73R    0.00  
Tranmere        44   47  -24      -4.97    31.19   -10.98    49.24     1.73   -24.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.78R    0.00  
Crewe           44   47  -27       0.50    53.05    -4.04    48.76     1.69   -28.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.92R    0.00  
Notts_County    44   46  -15     -11.05    13.78    -8.96    48.54     1.85   -15.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.13R    0.00  
Carlisle        43   44  -29      -0.78    47.83    -6.35    46.73     1.99   -31.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.62R    0.55  
Shrewsbury      44   41  -19      -9.04    17.57    -4.30    43.25     1.79   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.78R   13.93  
Stevenage       44   39  -25      -9.31    16.62    -7.12    40.91     1.65   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   85.52  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Bristol_Rovers 1 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           44   80  +26       2.96    61.00     1.88    83.46     1.83    27.02    63.72    99.84   100.00    99.89P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         44   78  +28       2.16    58.25     5.85    81.27     1.84    28.76    23.26    93.43   100.00    95.68P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             44   78  +20       8.37    79.59     6.37    81.43     1.86    21.02    12.91    96.70   100.00    97.67P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       44   75  +15      10.02    83.67     8.04    77.34     1.78    14.46     0.11    10.03   100.00    32.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        44   72   +8       9.55    82.90     4.35    74.27     1.76     7.41     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.38P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             44   68  +16      -1.76    42.99     2.39    70.99     1.83    16.37     0.00     0.00    99.95    32.33P    0.00     0.00  
York                 44   67  +10       7.27    77.26     9.63    69.60     1.75     9.82     0.00     0.00    94.66    19.33P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           44   62   +6      -0.63    47.66     2.03    65.09     1.83     6.53     0.00     0.00     5.40     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             44   58   -7       2.86    61.84    -0.91    60.42     1.78    -7.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bury                 44   57   +8      -9.58    17.69    -1.24    60.13     1.86     8.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            44   57   -4       0.83    53.89     1.25    59.76     1.82    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            44   57   -8       4.98    69.30     3.37    59.71     1.82    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           44   57  -10      -5.84    28.73   -13.93    59.80     1.82    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        44   56   -4       2.69    61.45     5.43    58.71     1.82    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       44   55   -3       3.94    65.81    10.32    57.11     1.76    -3.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           44   55   -7      -3.65    36.20    -5.20    57.53     1.79    -7.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           44   52   -4      -9.00    19.11    -5.67    54.90     1.83    -3.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   44   51   -4      -4.12    34.45     2.70    53.61     1.80    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            44   50  -15      -3.18    38.01    -5.00    52.42     1.81   -15.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32R    0.00  
Exeter               44   49   -7     -10.07    15.77    -5.56    51.27     1.78    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.72R    0.00  
Wycombe              44   47  -10      -8.52    19.59    -4.24    49.85     1.82    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.03R    2.86  
Bristol_Rovers       44   47  -11      -6.85    24.80    -2.65    49.72     1.81   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.12R    1.17  
Northampton          44   47  -20      -4.84    31.57    -9.03    49.39     1.78   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.81R    3.29  
Torquay              44   42  -23      -8.71    18.89   -10.19    44.58     1.80   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.00R   92.68  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Barnet 1 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            45   98  +66       7.19    77.44    18.48   100.46     1.02    67.97   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    45   82  +39       4.63    67.88    15.28    83.27     1.28    38.88     0.00   100.00    32.24P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          45   77  +19       1.86    57.28    -1.31    78.27     1.27    18.88     0.00   100.00    28.44P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          45   76  +27       5.22    69.01    12.67    77.67     1.32    27.45     0.00    99.99    20.57P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        45   76  +20       7.41    77.16     9.37    77.45     1.30    20.12     0.00    91.74    17.37P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   45   73  +18       6.95    75.62    11.15    74.44     1.29    18.12     0.00     8.27     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    45   73   +8       1.01    54.14    -7.97    74.09     1.27     7.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    45   72   -3      13.86    91.54     3.95    73.63     1.33    -2.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet           45   69   +5      -1.05    45.85    -7.78    70.29     1.28     4.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     45   66  +14      -3.72    35.84     1.44    67.66     1.31    14.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking           45   65   -5       7.90    78.75     3.29    66.38     1.31    -4.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        45   65   -6      10.24    84.55     4.87    66.23     1.28    -6.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     45   64   +1       3.39    63.61     2.74    65.43     1.30     1.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         45   62   -9       7.84    78.97     1.98    63.72     1.29    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          45   58   +0     -11.85    11.82   -12.58    59.08     1.25    -0.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     45   58   -2      -3.83    35.37    -1.89    59.13     1.28    -2.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Welling          45   57   -3       1.07    54.80     5.79    58.76     1.30    -2.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        45   53  -17       0.14    51.21    -2.21    53.99     1.23   -17.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        45   51   +8     -11.53    13.02    -8.79    53.01     1.24     8.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chester          45   50  -21       2.53    61.10     1.33    51.49     1.30   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford         45   48  -20      -9.26    17.29   -13.59    48.76     1.11   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dartford         45   44  -23      -7.81    21.28    -7.15    45.02     1.22   -23.50     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Tamworth         45   39  -36      -4.58    31.62    -7.15    40.37     1.31   -36.01     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hyde_United      45   10  -80     -21.41     0.15   -21.92    10.40     0.87   -81.97     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10