Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 21 April 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Man_City 3 1 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        35   80  +52       8.23    84.32    10.46    86.28     2.06    55.74    79.49    96.29   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          35   75  +41       4.33    69.56     5.43    80.95     2.00    44.00     2.68    22.41    95.88    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         34   74  +56      -0.28    47.18     7.71    82.99     2.21    62.09    17.84    81.19    98.81    99.89   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          35   70  +21       6.97    79.34    -2.40    76.52     2.08    24.88     0.00     0.11     4.90    82.01   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          35   69  +23       8.78    84.76     5.19    73.45     2.24    23.43     0.00     0.01     0.41    18.26    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        35   63   +2       8.67    83.99    -6.60    68.06     2.25     3.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    69.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          34   57  +16      -5.87    23.90    -9.48    65.80     2.32    21.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.10     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      35   49   +5       1.56    57.62     7.78    52.45     2.23     4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        35   46  -15       5.14    73.09    -1.99    48.82     1.85   -17.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            35   44  -10       3.25    66.01     1.65    48.12     2.23    -9.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   43  -13       8.11    84.31     7.04    45.27     1.91   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         35   37  -10      -5.54    26.14    -0.50    39.70     1.99   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Swansea          35   36   -4      -8.63    15.48     2.75    40.70     2.27    -3.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Hull             34   36   -9      -0.06    50.68     7.62    39.70     2.34   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.46R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      34   35  -14      -3.81    32.68    -0.42    38.65     2.25   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.80R    0.01  
West_Brom        34   33  -13      -8.28    16.07    -2.44    38.12     2.52   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.22R    0.13  
Norwich          35   32  -28      -3.60    33.52    -6.97    33.53     1.65   -32.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.19R   14.06  
Cardiff          35   30  -34      -1.47    43.92    -4.48    32.35     1.96   -36.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.89R   49.32  
Fulham           35   30  -42      -3.22    35.34   -13.99    34.10     2.22   -42.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.69R   19.71  
Sunderland       34   29  -24      -7.24    18.51    -6.38    34.10     2.46   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.56R   16.77  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Birmingham 2 4 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       43   93  +36      15.49    94.54     7.87    98.61     2.18    38.31    98.41   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         44   89  +34      14.40    92.69    13.02    92.16     1.82    34.60     1.59   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           44   81  +30       9.08    81.41    12.53    84.17     1.89    30.63     0.00     0.00   100.00    26.19P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             44   76  +15       5.57    70.89     0.21    79.79     1.76    16.49     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.85P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           43   70  +15      -0.44    48.06    -1.99    74.88     2.25    16.11     0.00     0.00    98.77    25.62P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        44   66  +12      -2.25    41.13     0.37    69.41     1.75    12.99     0.00     0.00    43.94    10.36P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   44   65   +7       1.32    55.48     2.09    67.76     1.85     7.02     0.00     0.00    13.49     2.37P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         44   65   +6       4.79    68.51     6.07    67.49     1.75     5.65     0.00     0.00     5.74     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         43   64  +10      -3.70    35.94    -3.12    68.91     2.28    11.14     0.00     0.00    32.57     7.55P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       44   64   +5       0.43    52.00     0.32    66.78     1.84     5.08     0.00     0.00     3.02     0.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     44   63   -1       7.40    76.59     6.92    65.78     1.87    -0.95     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         43   60  +17      -9.48    17.42     1.05    64.73     2.24    17.92     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   43   58   +9      -3.22    37.60     5.44    62.62     2.21     9.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton          43   55   -2      -6.61    25.33    -5.82    59.22     2.28    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       44   53   +1      -5.39    29.84     4.04    55.60     1.83     0.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    44   53  -10      -2.20    41.75    -1.85    55.32     1.83   -10.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    44   50   -8      -3.59    36.32     2.31    51.77     1.68    -9.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton        43   45  -23      -5.06    30.29   -10.91    48.63     2.21   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.34R    0.00  
Doncaster       44   44  -28       0.25    52.09    -3.75    45.49     1.55   -30.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.09R    0.00  
Millwall        44   44  -29      -3.10    38.01    -9.10    46.08     1.70   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.50R    0.00  
Birmingham      43   43  -13     -12.67    10.06    -7.50    46.91     2.26   -13.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.99R    0.00  
Blackpool       44   43  -27      -8.21    20.04   -13.86    45.29     1.70   -27.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.92R    0.10  
Barnsley        44   39  -30      -5.89    27.26    -6.32    40.78     1.65   -31.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.16R   25.27  
Yeovil          44   37  -26      -5.65    27.98     1.96    38.76     1.63   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   74.63  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Crewe 0 0 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   44   99  +55       8.31    80.71     8.56   103.42     1.63    57.75   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       44   91  +30      16.32    95.00     8.92    94.81     1.76    31.53     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       44   82  +27      14.40    91.61    16.25    84.73     1.85    26.94     0.00     0.00   100.00    18.87P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         44   82  +25      11.65    87.74    10.21    85.78     1.81    26.55     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.29P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   44   80  +36       5.81    71.42    15.26    83.43     1.80    37.04     0.00     0.00   100.00    30.33P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    44   70  +12      -1.50    44.39    -4.89    73.73     1.81    13.53     0.00     0.00    96.49    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         44   66   +7      -3.38    37.02    -6.43    69.15     1.88     7.60     0.00     0.00     3.51     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       43   60   +0      -3.86    34.92    -7.45    64.65     2.27     0.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       44   60  -13       8.20    79.28     1.37    61.97     1.72   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         44   59   +0      -6.66    25.59    -7.85    61.52     1.85    -0.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Walsall         44   58   +2      -2.68    39.60     1.04    61.21     1.82     2.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    44   56   +3      -8.97    19.71    -3.52    59.43     1.83     4.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town    43   55   -5       0.54    52.53     1.38    59.40     2.25    -4.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bradford        44   53   +1      -0.16    50.10    11.22    55.67     1.82     0.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gillingham      44   52  -17       1.80    57.71    -0.30    54.32     1.74   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham          43   51  -10       0.10    51.23     1.52    55.02     2.25   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Coventry        44   50   -2      -2.72    39.76    -4.77    51.94     1.73    -3.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Colchester      44   47  -12      -4.95    31.09     0.55    49.01     1.71   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.65R    0.00  
Tranmere        44   47  -24      -4.79    31.86   -10.81    49.24     1.73   -24.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.87R    0.00  
Crewe           44   47  -27       0.43    52.86    -4.12    48.77     1.69   -28.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.54R    0.00  
Notts_County    44   46  -15     -10.77    14.37    -8.54    48.54     1.84   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.09R    0.00  
Carlisle        43   44  -29      -0.99    46.79    -6.66    46.71     1.97   -31.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.97R    0.57  
Shrewsbury      44   41  -19      -8.67    18.52    -3.78    43.24     1.79   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.84R   13.97  
Stevenage       44   39  -25      -9.33    16.61    -7.16    40.90     1.65   -26.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   85.46  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Bristol_Rovers 1 2 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Scunthorpe           44   80  +26       2.93    61.03     1.82    83.47     1.83    27.02    64.27    99.84   100.00    99.88P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         44   78  +28       2.00    57.68     5.64    81.29     1.84    28.79    23.07    93.76   100.00    96.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             44   78  +20       8.46    79.55     6.53    81.42     1.86    20.98    12.59    96.71   100.00    97.62P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       44   75  +15      10.00    83.44     7.95    77.34     1.77    14.45     0.07     9.69   100.00    32.55P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        44   72   +8       9.60    83.09     4.44    74.24     1.75     7.37     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.34P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             44   68  +16      -1.66    43.68     2.54    71.00     1.83    16.38     0.00     0.00    99.92    31.95P    0.00     0.00  
York                 44   67  +10       7.14    76.70     9.38    69.58     1.74     9.81     0.00     0.00    94.38    19.31P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           44   62   +6      -0.33    48.88     2.38    65.12     1.83     6.55     0.00     0.00     5.69     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             44   58   -7       3.00    62.40    -0.65    60.43     1.78    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bury                 44   57   +8      -9.55    17.79    -1.21    60.15     1.87     8.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            44   57   -4       0.74    53.51     1.06    59.77     1.82    -3.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            44   57   -8       4.96    69.36     3.35    59.70     1.82    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           44   57  -10      -5.70    29.33   -13.74    59.78     1.82    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        44   56   -4       2.75    61.56     5.49    58.69     1.82    -4.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       44   55   -3       3.77    65.19    10.09    57.13     1.77    -3.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           44   55   -7      -3.95    34.98    -5.62    57.56     1.80    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           44   52   -4      -9.20    18.52    -5.95    54.91     1.83    -3.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   44   51   -4      -4.13    34.45     2.67    53.60     1.79    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            44   50  -15      -3.08    38.52    -4.84    52.41     1.81   -15.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.27R    0.00  
Exeter               44   49   -7     -10.07    15.93    -5.60    51.26     1.77    -7.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.65R    0.00  
Wycombe              44   47  -10      -8.20    20.46    -3.77    49.82     1.82    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.05R    2.87  
Bristol_Rovers       44   47  -11      -7.03    24.17    -2.88    49.75     1.82   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.35R    1.15  
Northampton          44   47  -20      -4.69    31.95    -8.82    49.35     1.77   -20.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.72R    3.35  
Torquay              44   42  -23      -8.75    18.39   -10.28    44.58     1.81   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.96R   92.63  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 April 2014, Barnet 1 1 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            45   98  +66       6.92    76.29    18.01   100.46     1.03    67.95   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    45   82  +39       4.58    67.85    15.23    83.27     1.28    38.88     0.00   100.00    32.35P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          45   77  +19       1.78    57.08    -1.41    78.26     1.27    18.88     0.00   100.00    28.54P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          45   76  +27       5.39    69.66    12.85    77.66     1.32    27.44     0.00   100.00    20.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        45   76  +20       7.48    77.02     9.48    77.45     1.30    20.12     0.00    91.73    17.62P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   45   73  +18       7.06    75.96    11.35    74.44     1.29    18.12     0.00     8.27     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    45   73   +8       1.06    54.30    -7.88    74.10     1.27     7.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    45   72   -3      14.19    92.16     4.49    73.63     1.33    -2.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet           45   69   +5      -1.19    45.58    -8.01    70.30     1.28     4.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     45   66  +14      -3.56    36.49     1.77    67.67     1.31    14.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking           45   65   -5       7.72    78.25     3.03    66.38     1.32    -4.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        45   65   -6      10.19    84.09     4.73    66.23     1.28    -6.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     45   64   +1       3.46    63.72     2.75    65.42     1.29     1.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         45   62   -9       7.71    78.68     1.75    63.71     1.29    -8.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          45   58   +0     -11.93    11.70   -12.60    59.08     1.25    -0.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     45   58   -2      -3.81    35.51    -1.96    59.14     1.29    -2.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Welling          45   57   -3       1.06    54.86     5.80    58.76     1.30    -2.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        45   53  -17       0.31    51.98    -1.91    53.99     1.23   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        45   51   +8     -11.65    12.62    -9.04    52.99     1.24     8.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chester          45   50  -21       2.60    61.43     1.46    51.50     1.31   -20.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hereford         45   48  -20      -9.30    17.25   -13.58    48.77     1.12   -20.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dartford         45   44  -23      -7.73    21.52    -7.04    45.02     1.22   -23.49     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Tamworth         45   39  -36      -4.65    31.54    -7.20    40.37     1.32   -36.01     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hyde_United      45   10  -80     -21.44     0.16   -22.06    10.40     0.88   -81.95     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10