Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 10 April 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 7 April 2014, Tottenham 5 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        33   74  +50       6.13    77.91    10.38    83.93     2.75    55.18    28.97    70.05    99.39    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          33   72  +41       5.03    73.31     6.54    82.41     2.57    46.80     9.56    40.41    98.40    99.88   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         31   70  +55       1.37    56.37     9.38    85.68     2.92    65.99    61.47    89.47    99.66    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          33   64  +16       5.97    76.59    -3.89    74.43     2.76    21.60     0.00     0.01     1.52    60.86    99.08     0.00     0.00  
Everton          32   63  +21       8.26    84.68     5.04    72.82     3.18    23.27     0.00     0.06     1.03    36.72    95.56     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        33   59   +0       8.58    84.76    -6.76    67.71     2.91     2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.18    52.17     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          33   57  +18      -5.04    26.51    -8.56    67.20     2.62    23.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.42    53.18     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      33   48   +6       3.15    65.14     8.61    55.04     2.90     6.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        33   46  -13       7.01    80.65    -1.24    51.51     2.63   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            33   40  -11       2.18    61.69     1.20    47.18     2.92   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         33   37   -7      -3.98    31.89     0.51    42.24     2.62   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Hull             33   36   -6      -0.06    50.81     8.54    40.67     2.66    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      32   34  -13      -2.47    38.39     0.23    40.36     2.95   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.94R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   34  -16       3.68    69.41     5.10    38.84     2.75   -21.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.44R    0.01  
Swansea          33   33   -4      -9.32    12.53     2.19    39.84     2.92    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.81R    0.01  
West_Brom        32   32  -11      -7.73    17.00    -3.01    38.78     2.98   -14.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.60R    0.06  
Norwich          33   32  -26      -2.05    40.51    -7.01    35.25     2.35   -32.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.75R    1.34  
Fulham           33   27  -41      -4.09    30.53   -13.91    33.39     2.82   -41.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.48R   12.72  
Cardiff          33   26  -35      -2.72    37.16    -4.96    30.21     2.59   -39.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.11R   56.70  
Sunderland       31   25  -24      -8.05    14.61    -8.37    31.51     2.97   -30.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.65R   29.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 April 2014, Barnsley 0 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       41   89  +35      14.52    93.96     7.12    97.71     2.89    37.81    93.08   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         41   83  +32      13.82    92.59    12.80    91.18     2.93    33.91     6.92    99.12   100.00    99.38P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           41   72  +25       6.86    75.71    11.55    81.10     2.93    28.41     0.00     0.87    99.99    26.63P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             41   70  +12       5.46    71.14    -0.29    78.03     2.87    13.68     0.00     0.02    98.73    25.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           41   67  +14      -0.31    48.58    -2.38    74.57     2.91    15.06     0.00     0.00    87.12    23.01P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         41   63  +13      -3.18    37.32    -1.97    70.51     2.95    13.95     0.00     0.00    45.37    11.40P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        41   61   +9      -1.29    44.78    -0.17    69.63     2.84    11.50     0.00     0.00    29.92     7.33P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         41   61   +7       4.89    69.67     6.84    68.06     2.84     7.26     0.00     0.00    12.91     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     41   61   +1       8.64    81.13     7.32    67.96     2.98     1.15     0.00     0.00    11.54     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   41   59   +7      -0.33    49.06     2.51    65.78     2.93     6.97     0.00     0.00     4.64     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       41   59   +3       0.75    53.07     0.02    66.30     2.93     3.74     0.00     0.00     4.48     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         40   56  +16      -8.71    18.36     1.06    65.37     3.23    17.73     0.00     0.00     5.00     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   41   55   +9      -3.26    37.28     5.78    62.47     2.83     9.91     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton          41   51   -3      -7.26    22.99    -5.88    58.61     2.93    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       41   49   +0      -4.60    31.82     3.69    55.94     2.93     0.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    41   47  -11      -3.89    34.77    -2.39    53.82     2.97   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield    41   46   -7      -4.13    33.66     2.20    51.17     2.77    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29R    0.00  
Birmingham      41   43  -10     -11.36    11.93    -6.78    49.51     2.93   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.65R    0.04  
Doncaster       41   43  -25       1.78    58.88    -2.89    47.34     2.62   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.42R    0.49  
Blackpool       41   42  -24      -6.63    24.34   -12.88    47.28     2.73   -26.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.57R    0.55  
Charlton        39   41  -20      -5.05    29.11    -9.96    49.65     3.38   -21.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.00R    0.29  
Millwall        41   39  -30      -4.17    33.38   -10.34    44.57     2.77   -31.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.49R    7.50  
Barnsley        40   36  -28      -4.98    29.41    -6.57    41.51     2.91   -32.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.28R   37.02  
Yeovil          41   35  -25      -4.55    31.72     1.62    40.12     2.76   -27.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.25R   54.12  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 April 2014, Brentford 1 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   41   90  +49       6.58    75.75     8.33   100.16     2.76    54.14    91.11    99.97   100.00    99.98P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       41   87  +30      16.54    95.91     8.98    95.20     2.91    31.96     8.89    97.75   100.00    98.41P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       41   78  +28      14.24    91.93    16.75    85.25     2.88    28.54     0.00     0.77   100.00    21.57P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   41   77  +35       7.63    78.06    15.45    85.28     2.90    37.19     0.00     0.89   100.00    31.35P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         41   76  +18      13.18    91.22     8.24    84.55     2.87    20.50     0.00     0.62   100.00    24.04P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    41   64   +9      -1.70    43.22    -5.32    73.14     2.94    12.57     0.00     0.00    92.92    23.03P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         41   58   +3      -4.48    32.39    -6.30    65.20     2.98     3.49     0.00     0.00     2.53     0.56P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         41   57   +4      -6.89    24.06    -7.46    64.68     3.00     5.18     0.00     0.00     2.12     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       41   57  -11       8.00    79.19     1.13    62.16     2.84   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         41   56   +3      -0.72    47.54     1.85    64.04     2.97     4.71     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       41   56   -1      -4.25    33.12    -7.30    63.99     2.96     0.63     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        41   49   +1      -0.63    48.31    10.55    54.63     2.85    -0.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27R    0.00  
Coventry        41   49   +0      -0.48    48.35    -4.33    54.78     2.89    -1.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Gillingham      41   48  -15       1.08    55.29     0.16    53.47     2.80   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.15R    0.01  
Bristol_City    41   47   -1     -12.11    11.36    -4.81    54.98     2.97     0.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.97R    0.01  
Oldham          41   47  -11      -1.08    45.92     0.86    53.53     2.95   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.88R    0.02  
Crawley_Town    39   46   -9      -1.64    43.48    -0.62    54.97     3.49    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.48R    0.02  
Colchester      41   43  -12      -4.83    31.29     0.60    49.09     2.87   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.21R    4.05  
Tranmere        40   43  -21      -4.76    31.31    -9.89    50.50     3.16   -22.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.34R    2.30  
Carlisle        40   43  -21      -1.12    46.18    -4.34    48.62     2.91   -25.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.33R    6.24  
Crewe           41   43  -27       0.21    51.89    -4.60    47.88     2.74   -30.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.61R   10.91  
Shrewsbury      41   41  -13      -7.30    21.94    -2.28    47.11     2.85   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.09R   11.26  
Notts_County    41   40  -17     -11.79    11.13    -9.37    46.82     2.98   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.39R   14.89  
Stevenage       41   39  -21      -7.14    22.48    -6.28    44.50     2.77   -22.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.07R   50.28  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 April 2014, Newport_County 1 2 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             41   75  +25       7.89    78.88     9.01    83.42     2.96    27.26    43.25    98.41   100.00    98.92P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           41   75  +25       3.17    62.43     2.45    83.83     2.95    27.81    49.64    98.86   100.00    99.25P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         41   71  +26       0.52    51.96     5.55    79.23     2.95    28.01     6.77    77.84   100.00    85.47P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       41   68  +13       8.21    79.81     7.58    75.12     2.92    13.41     0.19    14.33    99.82    34.92P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        41   68   +6      10.41    86.10     3.45    74.66     2.89     5.83     0.15    10.21    99.65    29.65P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             41   62  +13      -2.05    41.59     1.58    69.77     2.90    14.34     0.00     0.34    89.83    28.49P    0.00     0.00  
York                 41   60   +8       5.17    71.44     8.76    66.64     2.83     7.81     0.00     0.01    49.16     9.80P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           41   59   +6       0.34    51.91     1.95    65.92     2.86     6.17     0.00     0.00    38.65     8.89P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             41   58   +0       4.12    67.21     2.30    64.61     2.87    -0.21     0.00     0.00    18.38     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            41   54   -1       0.53    52.90     2.38    60.75     2.91    -1.08     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 41   53   +5      -8.29    20.22    -2.64    60.09     2.92     5.37     0.00     0.00     2.29     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            41   53   -9       5.25    71.01     2.68    59.20     2.91    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Cheltenham           41   51   -8      -3.45    36.47    -6.05    57.41     2.92    -8.61     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.13R    0.00  
Newport_County       41   50   -5       3.85    66.22     9.65    55.74     2.86    -6.54     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.65R    0.00  
Hartlepool           41   49   -1      -9.57    16.65    -4.94    56.10     2.92    -0.53     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.52R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   41   49   -3      -2.57    39.81     3.03    55.31     2.86    -3.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.94R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        41   49   -6       0.22    51.65     4.02    55.24     2.86    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.32R    0.00  
Morecambe            41   48  -14      -1.98    42.44    -5.35    53.42     2.81   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.74R    0.07  
Portsmouth           41   48  -15      -8.30    20.08   -15.62    54.96     2.93   -14.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.65R    0.04  
Exeter               41   47   -6      -8.34    19.63    -5.16    53.33     2.85    -6.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.33R    0.15  
Bristol_Rovers       41   47   -8      -3.91    34.45    -1.47    53.57     2.90    -8.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.68R    0.13  
Wycombe              41   46   -7      -6.47    24.89    -2.59    52.96     2.92    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.70R    0.28  
Northampton          41   43  -20      -5.19    29.49    -9.42    49.04     2.87   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.00R    5.13  
Torquay              41   36  -24     -10.63    12.57   -11.14    42.05     2.88   -25.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.34R   94.20  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 10 April 2014, Dartford 1 0 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            42   92  +63       7.26    78.73    18.70   100.62     2.37    68.05    99.99   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    41   79  +38       8.21    80.72    16.39    87.94     2.70    41.65     0.01   100.00    35.31P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    42   71   -1      16.05    95.01     4.31    76.02     2.62    -1.76     0.00    65.35     7.14P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          41   70  +18       1.60    56.45    -0.19    79.58     2.72    22.54     0.00    95.34    30.93P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        41   68  +17       6.09    73.79     8.26    74.97     2.87    17.27     0.00    56.57    10.57P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          41   67  +22       4.04    65.91    11.52    73.70     2.92    21.72     0.00    42.50     7.83P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   41   65  +16       4.99    70.19     9.93    71.48     2.75    15.38     0.00    15.39     2.70P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           42   65   +8      -2.24    40.73    -6.75    71.37     2.60     9.31     0.00    11.22     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    41   63   +2      -0.51    47.94    -9.42    71.50     2.90     4.44     0.00    13.16     2.82P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        42   62   -7      11.87    89.09     4.51    67.07     2.54    -7.64     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           42   61   -5       7.76    79.27     2.86    66.22     2.59    -5.54     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         42   61   -5       8.60    81.94     2.68    65.62     2.45    -6.30     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     41   59  +15      -5.55    28.19     1.82    65.95     2.84    14.98     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          42   57   +3       2.06    58.69     7.03    61.79     2.52     1.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     41   57   +2      -0.81    46.96    -0.36    63.72     2.95     1.69     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     42   55   -2      -0.78    47.17     1.03    59.62     2.52    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          42   54   -2     -10.46    13.79   -12.73    60.50     2.57    -0.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        42   46  -20      -1.57    44.26    -3.31    50.86     2.49   -21.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.75R    0.00  
Chester          42   46  -21       1.94    58.88     0.78    49.71     2.29   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.64R    0.00  
Hereford         42   45  -19      -8.41    18.97   -12.90    50.30     2.56   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.29R    0.00  
Aldershot        42   44   +6     -13.27     8.86    -9.15    50.74     2.58     7.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.83R    0.00  
Dartford         42   44  -20      -5.00    30.36    -6.13    49.03     2.50   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.49R    0.00  
Tamworth         42   33  -36      -6.95    21.89    -7.70    37.45     2.50   -37.55     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Hyde_United      42   10  -72     -20.74     0.18   -21.19    11.80     1.81   -79.33     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10