Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 4 April 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 March 2014, Sunderland 1 2 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        32   71  +49       5.08    74.15    10.31    82.91     3.07    55.13    26.78    67.44    96.33    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          32   69  +38       4.73    72.01     5.59    81.59     2.85    45.01    10.10    42.14    93.38    99.74   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         30   67  +52       1.07    54.54     9.07    85.13     3.14    64.79    63.08    89.30    98.86    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          32   64  +19       6.33    78.24    -2.49    75.78     3.06    24.59     0.04     1.04    10.39    81.29    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Everton          31   60  +18       7.74    83.32     3.84    71.14     3.46    20.19     0.00     0.08     1.04    18.12    93.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        32   56   -4       8.75    85.47    -7.99    66.57     3.19    -0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.50    54.84     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          32   54  +14      -5.33    25.01   -10.19    65.89     3.00    19.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57    52.15     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      32   48   +9       3.26    65.65     9.10    55.49     3.05     7.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        32   46   -9       6.85    80.05     0.10    52.53     2.94   -12.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            32   40   -8       2.29    62.07     2.00    47.74     3.10    -8.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   37   -6      -3.21    35.13     0.44    43.11     2.89    -9.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      31   34  -12      -1.08    45.31     1.11    42.34     3.27   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43R    0.00  
Swansea          32   33   -3      -8.30    15.34     2.68    41.21     3.22    -3.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84R    0.00  
Hull             32   33   -7      -1.39    43.83     8.09    38.97     2.98   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.02R    0.03  
Norwich          32   32  -25      -1.01    45.78    -6.40    36.64     2.71   -31.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.25R    1.23  
Crystal_Palace   31   31  -19       2.90    66.61     3.41    36.79     3.01   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.90R    1.46  
West_Brom        31   29  -12      -9.11    12.56    -3.56    37.09     3.27   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.98R    1.32  
Cardiff          32   26  -32      -2.22    39.54    -3.85    31.90     2.94   -35.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.53R   30.36  
Sunderland       30   25  -20      -7.98    14.43    -6.71    32.44     3.23   -26.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.73R   22.66  
Fulham           32   24  -42      -5.53    23.44   -14.56    31.32     3.09   -43.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.30R   42.94  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 4 April 2014, Leicester 2 1 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       40   89  +38      15.01    94.90     8.70    99.58     3.16    41.50    97.46   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         39   79  +31      12.91    91.95    12.24    90.23     3.50    33.33     2.54    94.63   100.00    96.08P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             39   70  +15       7.18    77.72     1.35    81.13     3.45    17.22     0.00     2.22    99.64    28.68P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           39   69  +24       7.04    77.18    11.26    80.90     3.52    27.49     0.00     3.02    99.78    26.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           39   64  +14       0.06    50.08    -1.51    75.79     3.48    17.29     0.00     0.12    91.12    24.77P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         39   60  +14      -4.04    33.62    -1.90    70.59     3.55    15.45     0.00     0.00    48.27    12.14P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   39   58   +8       1.38    56.03     3.37    68.67     3.47     9.66     0.00     0.00    23.13     4.55P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         39   58   +7       4.62    69.02     6.90    67.50     3.40     6.82     0.00     0.00    12.62     2.07P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        39   57   +6      -1.71    42.95    -2.00    67.97     3.39     7.98     0.00     0.00    16.06     3.78P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     39   55   -2       6.48    75.73     6.08    64.26     3.51    -2.48     0.00     0.00     2.91     0.39P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       39   53   -1      -0.85    46.84    -1.42    63.09     3.49    -0.20     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         38   52  +13      -8.51    18.20     0.34    64.65     3.76    15.57     0.00     0.00     5.31     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   39   49   +6      -5.30    28.77     4.56    59.55     3.44     7.38     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       40   48   +0      -4.20    33.09     3.62    55.94     3.19    -0.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    39   47   -7      -3.11    37.26    -1.46    55.53     3.44    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield    39   46   -4      -2.35    40.67     3.82    54.18     3.40    -6.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Bolton          39   45   -5      -9.73    15.16    -6.65    55.39     3.52    -3.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Doncaster       39   43  -22       3.11    64.63    -2.17    49.94     3.28   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.58R    0.04  
Blackpool       39   42  -21      -4.95    29.82   -11.60    50.45     3.35   -22.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.80R    0.04  
Birmingham      39   40  -10     -11.72    10.55    -6.99    49.04     3.50   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.66R    0.07  
Charlton        37   38  -20      -5.13    28.41    -9.73    49.69     3.91   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.64R    0.33  
Barnsley        38   35  -27      -4.02    33.03    -6.30    42.45     3.44   -32.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.20R   13.04  
Millwall        39   33  -32      -7.26    20.83   -11.95    39.79     3.18   -36.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.98R   40.13  
Yeovil          39   32  -25      -4.89    29.51     1.42    38.95     3.29   -28.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.86R   46.34  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 April 2014, Peterborough 2 0 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   40   87  +47       5.84    73.63     7.64    99.14     3.07    53.05    92.02    99.73   100.00    99.83P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       39   81  +27      14.77    94.54     8.20    93.01     3.46    30.51     7.74    85.78   100.00    89.81P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   40   76  +35       8.10    79.97    15.62    85.63     3.19    37.16     0.11     5.78   100.00    34.25P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       39   75  +28      14.06    92.31    16.83    85.11     3.49    28.72     0.11     4.95   100.00    24.90P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         40   75  +18      13.35    91.77     7.90    84.95     3.18    20.53     0.02     3.76   100.00    26.71P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    39   61   +9      -1.97    42.06    -5.33    73.01     3.45    12.81     0.00     0.00    85.29    21.06P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         40   57   +5      -5.81    27.57    -6.90    66.42     3.29     6.73     0.00     0.00     7.54     1.94P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         40   56   +4       0.28    51.60     2.39    65.55     3.28     5.94     0.00     0.00     4.61     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         40   55   +2      -6.05    26.61    -7.11    63.52     3.27     2.40     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       40   54  -12       6.77    75.94     0.85    60.35     3.15   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       39   52   -2      -5.42    28.50    -8.09    62.85     3.52    -0.17     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        40   49   +2       0.27    51.67    10.70    56.24     3.16     0.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Coventry        40   49   +1       0.94    54.01    -3.25    56.27     3.22    -0.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Gillingham      39   48  -12       2.28    60.12     0.36    55.49     3.36   -15.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.00  
Bristol_City    40   46   -1     -11.90    11.31    -5.08    55.36     3.27     0.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    37   46   -7       0.41    52.53     0.45    57.70     3.96    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.47R    0.00  
Oldham          40   44  -12      -2.13    41.59     0.58    51.57     3.22   -12.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.33R    0.29  
Colchester      40   43  -11      -3.61    35.45     1.30    50.69     3.20   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.58R    0.95  
Notts_County    40   40  -15     -11.36    11.74    -8.99    47.67     3.20   -15.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.05R    6.66  
Tranmere        39   40  -22      -5.86    26.55   -10.10    48.58     3.43   -23.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.78R    6.25  
Carlisle        39   40  -22      -2.71    38.96    -5.07    46.59     3.17   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.95R   15.54  
Crewe           40   40  -28      -1.16    46.17    -5.08    45.81     3.01   -31.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.54R   25.81  
Stevenage       40   39  -20      -6.19    25.48    -5.74    45.71     3.06   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.13R   21.96  
Shrewsbury      40   38  -14      -8.20    18.62    -2.10    45.59     3.16   -14.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.67R   22.55  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 April 2014, Bury 2 1 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             40   74  +25       8.44    80.62     9.21    84.21     3.26    27.88    54.28    99.31   100.00    99.51P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           40   72  +24       2.12    58.12     2.10    82.59     3.24    27.37    31.64    97.75   100.00    98.59P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         40   70  +26       1.07    54.08     5.87    80.38     3.19    29.16    13.92    90.07   100.00    93.50P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       40   65  +11       7.11    76.80     6.36    73.23     3.21    11.06     0.09     6.67    97.17    28.17P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        40   65   +5       9.47    84.09     3.37    73.14     3.19     4.98     0.06     5.87    96.60    25.66P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             40   59  +12      -3.30    36.59     1.10    68.22     3.20    13.45     0.00     0.20    72.91    23.15P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   59   +8       1.20    55.36     3.22    67.51     3.17     8.48     0.00     0.10    59.69    15.38P    0.00     0.00  
York                 40   59   +8       5.20    71.40     8.42    66.60     3.11     7.21     0.00     0.04    45.68     9.95P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             39   55   +0       3.59    65.56     1.98    64.16     3.45    -0.39     0.00     0.00    18.62     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            40   54   +1       1.24    55.79     3.47    62.10     3.21     0.91     0.00     0.00     6.43     1.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           40   51   -7      -2.45    40.43    -5.55    58.71     3.18    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 40   50   +3      -8.96    18.20    -3.30    58.63     3.22     3.62     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            40   50  -10       4.05    67.02     2.47    57.28     3.18   -11.32     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.12R    0.00  
Hartlepool           40   49   +0      -8.68    18.65    -4.57    57.44     3.21     0.43     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07P    0.09R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   40   49   -2      -1.52    44.18     3.70    56.97     3.16    -2.23     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P    0.20R    0.00  
Newport_County       39   49   -4       4.89    70.35     9.52    56.77     3.38    -6.66     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    0.25R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        40   48   -6       0.69    53.80     4.40    55.66     3.16    -6.73     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.58R    0.01  
Morecambe            40   48  -13      -0.83    47.27    -4.53    55.07     3.14   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.22R    0.01  
Exeter               40   47   -4      -8.10    19.92    -4.70    54.52     3.16    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.43R    0.11  
Bristol_Rovers       40   46   -8      -3.88    34.13    -1.75    53.92     3.19    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.88R    0.22  
Portsmouth           40   45  -16      -9.65    16.17   -16.11    53.37     3.25   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.61R    0.54  
Wycombe              40   43   -9      -7.46    21.67    -3.63    51.36     3.22    -8.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.18R    1.96  
Northampton          40   40  -21      -6.70    23.59   -10.14    47.12     3.13   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.90R   18.38  
Torquay              40   36  -23      -9.90    13.92   -10.91    42.94     3.14   -24.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.51R   78.77  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 April 2014, Halifax 0 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            40   86  +60       5.91    74.38    18.53    99.29     2.86    68.34    99.94   100.00    99.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    39   73  +33       7.38    79.06    15.04    85.48     3.28    37.77     0.06    99.88    33.20P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    40   70   +2      17.01    96.49     5.90    78.33     3.25     2.10     0.00    78.25     9.55P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   66  +18       2.03    58.95     0.27    80.48     3.56    23.82     0.00    91.43    31.00P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   39   65  +18       7.42    78.64    11.46    75.53     3.33    19.28     0.00    53.15    10.49P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        40   65  +12       6.52    75.68     6.51    73.97     3.12    13.20     0.00    30.11     5.46P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          40   64  +21       2.55    60.30    10.82    71.98     3.21    20.52     0.00    16.40     3.15P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    39   62   +3       0.75    53.08    -9.18    73.17     3.48     5.28     0.00    21.87     5.09P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           40   61   +7      -2.95    37.56    -6.89    70.61     3.24     9.04     0.00     6.64     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         41   61   -4       9.81    85.51     3.61    67.10     2.82    -5.15     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     39   58  +16      -4.17    32.73     2.27    67.73     3.41    16.04     0.00     1.72     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           39   57   -4       7.01    77.75     2.61    65.02     3.36    -6.63     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          40   56   +4       3.26    63.75     7.24    63.62     3.16     3.04     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        40   56  -10       9.61    84.76     3.41    63.22     3.11   -11.56     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     39   54   +2      -1.40    44.36    -0.70    62.57     3.48     0.27     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     41   54   -2      -0.21    49.62     1.48    60.59     2.87    -2.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          41   51   -3     -11.55    11.16   -12.89    59.34     2.91    -0.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        40   45  -18      -1.10    46.14    -3.21    51.65     2.99   -20.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.75R    0.00  
Chester          41   43  -22       0.77    54.18     0.43    48.86     2.64   -23.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.48R    0.00  
Hereford         40   42  -18      -9.15    15.94   -12.40    50.09     3.16   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.41R    0.00  
Aldershot        40   41   +4     -12.76     9.12    -9.96    49.54     3.11     4.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.19R    0.00  
Dartford         40   40  -21      -6.51    23.96    -7.04    46.94     3.08   -22.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.95R    0.00  
Tamworth         40   33  -29      -7.42    20.21    -6.37    38.52     2.86   -33.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.22R    0.00  
Hyde_United      40   10  -69     -19.50     0.28   -20.93    13.84     2.55   -77.42     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10