Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 3 April 2014 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 March 2014, Sunderland 1 2 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        32   71  +49       5.07    74.36    10.29    82.95     3.08    55.18    27.36    67.46    96.59    99.89   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          32   69  +38       4.69    72.02     5.64    81.59     2.87    45.00    10.00    42.05    93.41    99.72   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         30   67  +52       1.21    55.36     9.35    85.08     3.12    64.69    62.61    89.38    98.88    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          32   64  +19       6.49    78.59    -2.26    75.75     3.05    24.53     0.03     1.03    10.11    80.50    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Everton          31   60  +18       7.62    83.11     3.65    71.20     3.44    20.29     0.00     0.09     1.02    18.94    93.49     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        32   56   -4       8.79    86.09    -7.89    66.52     3.18    -0.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51    54.32     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          32   54  +14      -5.14    26.00    -9.89    65.84     3.01    19.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51    52.21     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      32   48   +9       3.33    66.20     9.21    55.50     3.05     7.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        32   46   -9       6.86    80.11     0.15    52.52     2.95   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            32   40   -8       2.14    61.54     1.81    47.75     3.07    -8.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   37   -6      -3.14    35.37     0.55    43.10     2.87    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      31   34  -12      -1.20    44.36     0.94    42.35     3.26   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42R    0.01  
Swansea          32   33   -3      -8.33    15.21     2.60    41.21     3.22    -3.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83R    0.01  
Hull             32   33   -7      -1.35    44.06     8.13    38.96     2.98   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.05R    0.04  
Norwich          32   32  -25      -0.97    46.09    -6.39    36.65     2.73   -31.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.37R    1.15  
Crystal_Palace   31   31  -19       2.93    66.86     3.45    36.77     3.01   -24.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.44R    1.50  
West_Brom        31   29  -12      -9.25    11.99    -3.78    37.11     3.28   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.89R    1.30  
Cardiff          32   26  -32      -2.17    40.00    -3.74    31.88     2.93   -35.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.71R   30.70  
Sunderland       30   25  -20      -8.13    14.04    -7.04    32.47     3.23   -26.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.36R   22.59  
Fulham           32   24  -42      -5.57    23.52   -14.80    31.36     3.10   -43.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.91R   42.70  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 April 2014, Blackburn 3 3 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       39   86  +37      14.18    94.15     8.94    98.62     3.41    41.51    95.39    99.99   100.00    99.99P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         39   79  +31      13.05    91.94    12.40    90.24     3.49    33.35     4.61    94.55   100.00    95.97P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             39   70  +15       6.85    76.34     0.94    81.15     3.45    17.24     0.00     2.31    99.62    28.49P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           39   69  +24       6.89    76.55    11.01    80.92     3.50    27.56     0.00     3.05    99.80    26.52P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           39   64  +14      -0.06    49.92    -1.69    75.78     3.45    17.28     0.00     0.10    90.84    24.85P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         39   60  +14      -3.82    34.60    -1.61    70.60     3.56    15.46     0.00     0.00    48.31    12.02P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   39   58   +8       1.26    55.66     3.18    68.69     3.47     9.67     0.00     0.00    23.24     4.50P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         39   58   +7       4.57    69.00     6.78    67.49     3.41     6.81     0.00     0.00    12.57     2.11P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        39   57   +6      -1.89    41.88    -2.24    68.05     3.37     8.07     0.00     0.00    16.25     3.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     39   55   -2       6.86    77.00     6.62    64.18     3.53    -2.58     0.00     0.00     2.91     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       39   53   -1      -0.89    46.64    -1.45    63.07     3.50    -0.22     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         38   52  +13      -8.46    18.55     0.38    64.65     3.77    15.56     0.00     0.00     5.34     1.33P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   39   49   +6      -5.21    29.10     4.62    59.54     3.42     7.35     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       39   48   +1      -3.52    35.64     3.53    56.70     3.42    -0.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    39   47   -7      -3.14    37.37    -1.51    55.52     3.44    -8.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Huddersfield    39   46   -4      -2.51    40.12     3.65    54.19     3.43    -6.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Bolton          39   45   -5      -9.82    15.13    -6.85    55.42     3.51    -3.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Doncaster       39   43  -22       3.22    65.02    -1.95    49.92     3.27   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.55R    0.05  
Blackpool       39   42  -21      -4.79    30.48   -11.29    50.41     3.34   -22.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.03R    0.04  
Birmingham      39   40  -10     -11.60    10.56    -6.80    49.00     3.50   -10.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.86R    0.09  
Charlton        37   38  -20      -4.96    29.08    -9.51    49.68     3.91   -20.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.65R    0.27  
Barnsley        38   35  -27      -4.06    32.67    -6.36    42.46     3.45   -32.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.63R   13.43  
Millwall        39   33  -32      -7.36    20.47   -12.05    39.78     3.17   -36.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.03R   40.38  
Yeovil          39   32  -25      -5.00    29.35     1.27    38.99     3.28   -28.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.99R   45.74  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 April 2014, Peterborough 2 0 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   40   87  +47       5.93    73.87     7.77    99.12     3.06    53.03    92.11    99.75   100.00    99.84P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       39   81  +27      14.82    94.56     8.25    93.05     3.47    30.55     7.63    85.94   100.00    89.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   40   76  +35       8.14    80.40    15.71    85.63     3.20    37.18     0.13     5.67   100.00    34.54P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       39   75  +28      14.09    92.46    16.87    85.11     3.48    28.72     0.12     5.07   100.00    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         40   75  +18      13.38    91.83     7.92    84.95     3.16    20.52     0.01     3.56   100.00    26.32P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    39   61   +9      -1.75    42.95    -4.97    72.99     3.47    12.76     0.00     0.00    85.07    20.85P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         40   57   +5      -5.82    27.16    -6.89    66.42     3.30     6.73     0.00     0.00     7.53     1.86P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         40   56   +4       0.25    51.25     2.27    65.55     3.26     5.92     0.00     0.00     4.74     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         40   55   +2      -5.90    27.28    -6.96    63.49     3.27     2.34     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       40   54  -12       6.61    75.68     0.67    60.36     3.15   -15.18     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       39   52   -2      -5.39    28.35    -8.06    62.83     3.53    -0.20     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford        40   49   +2       0.24    51.57    10.64    56.25     3.15     0.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Coventry        40   49   +1       0.56    52.42    -3.85    56.30     3.23    -0.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Gillingham      39   48  -12       2.35    60.64     0.51    55.47     3.35   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.65R    0.00  
Bristol_City    40   46   -1     -11.86    11.57    -4.98    55.37     3.29     0.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77R    0.01  
Crawley_Town    37   46   -7       0.40    52.44     0.41    57.67     3.95    -7.94     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.48R    0.00  
Oldham          40   44  -12      -2.15    41.59     0.53    51.57     3.22   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.49R    0.26  
Colchester      40   43  -11      -3.72    35.17     1.17    50.68     3.18   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.55R    0.97  
Notts_County    40   40  -15     -11.36    11.73    -8.97    47.66     3.21   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.12R    7.01  
Tranmere        39   40  -22      -5.98    26.36   -10.23    48.63     3.43   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.56R    6.18  
Carlisle        39   40  -22      -2.47    40.38    -4.71    46.56     3.18   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.17R   15.88  
Crewe           40   40  -28      -1.19    45.79    -5.20    45.84     3.01   -31.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.24R   25.48  
Stevenage       40   39  -20      -6.26    25.28    -5.85    45.70     3.07   -22.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.20R   21.74  
Shrewsbury      40   38  -14      -8.16    18.66    -2.03    45.59     3.17   -14.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.68R   22.48  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 April 2014, Bury 2 1 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             40   74  +25       8.26    80.39     8.95    84.24     3.27    27.92    54.66    99.24   100.00    99.44P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           40   72  +24       1.90    57.40     1.84    82.60     3.23    27.38    31.35    97.76   100.00    98.62P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         40   70  +26       1.16    54.81     5.94    80.37     3.20    29.14    13.83    90.36   100.00    93.80P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       40   65  +11       7.33    77.70     6.69    73.19     3.18    11.02     0.09     6.43    97.22    28.24P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        40   65   +5       9.44    83.70     3.39    73.10     3.20     4.95     0.06     5.85    96.54    25.69P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             40   59  +12      -3.32    36.29     1.09    68.25     3.20    13.46     0.00     0.22    73.34    23.76P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   59   +8       1.17    55.09     3.22    67.52     3.18     8.49     0.00     0.11    59.75    15.03P    0.00     0.00  
York                 40   59   +8       5.17    71.26     8.33    66.57     3.11     7.18     0.00     0.04    45.66     9.60P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             39   55   +0       3.89    66.86     2.36    64.11     3.43    -0.48     0.00     0.01    18.11     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            40   54   +1       1.13    55.04     3.29    62.10     3.20     0.92     0.00     0.00     6.45     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           40   51   -7      -2.59    39.51    -5.77    58.72     3.19    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Bury                 40   50   +3      -8.91    18.40    -3.18    58.61     3.21     3.60     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            40   50  -10       4.07    67.23     2.46    57.24     3.20   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.15R    0.00  
Hartlepool           40   49   +0      -8.69    18.67    -4.54    57.44     3.20     0.43     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.07P    0.08R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   40   49   -2      -1.50    44.20     3.77    56.97     3.16    -2.25     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    0.17R    0.00  
Newport_County       39   49   -4       4.67    69.28     9.24    56.82     3.39    -6.59     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P    0.29R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        40   48   -6       0.60    53.32     4.25    55.67     3.17    -6.70     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.64R    0.01  
Morecambe            40   48  -13      -1.07    46.52    -4.93    55.12     3.15   -14.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.28R    0.05  
Exeter               40   47   -4      -8.05    20.13    -4.65    54.52     3.14    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.29R    0.08  
Bristol_Rovers       40   46   -8      -3.68    35.22    -1.52    53.90     3.17    -8.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.13R    0.20  
Portsmouth           40   45  -16      -9.46    16.52   -15.86    53.38     3.23   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.62R    0.51  
Wycombe              40   43   -9      -7.61    21.20    -3.75    51.37     3.22    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.38R    1.92  
Northampton          40   40  -21      -6.53    24.22    -9.91    47.15     3.16   -22.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.41R   18.82  
Torquay              40   36  -23      -9.78    14.44   -10.70    42.97     3.14   -24.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.53R   78.40  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 April 2014, Halifax 0 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            40   86  +60       5.91    74.39    18.44    99.30     2.84    68.35    99.95   100.00    99.98P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    39   73  +33       7.24    78.39    14.81    85.50     3.22    37.83     0.05    99.89    33.88P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    40   70   +2      16.81    96.32     5.54    78.40     3.25     2.20     0.00    79.01     9.44P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   66  +18       1.97    58.42     0.32    80.49     3.54    23.83     0.00    91.57    30.82P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   39   65  +18       7.52    79.50    11.61    75.51     3.31    19.23     0.00    53.20    10.21P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        40   65  +12       6.71    76.20     6.79    73.95     3.13    13.17     0.00    29.84     5.29P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          40   64  +21       2.70    61.09    11.04    71.94     3.20    20.48     0.00    16.10     3.16P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    39   62   +3       0.85    53.69    -9.08    73.10     3.47     5.20     0.00    21.27     4.95P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           40   61   +7      -2.79    38.70    -6.71    70.59     3.25     9.02     0.00     6.77     1.79P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         41   61   -4       9.64    84.79     3.37    67.15     2.80    -5.07     0.00     0.29     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     39   58  +16      -4.17    32.78     2.23    67.74     3.42    16.06     0.00     1.81     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           39   57   -4       6.80    77.16     2.26    65.05     3.38    -6.59     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          40   56   +4       3.13    63.20     7.04    63.60     3.13     3.01     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        40   56  -10       9.80    85.25     3.69    63.17     3.12   -11.63     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     39   54   +2      -1.53    43.95    -0.84    62.54     3.45     0.24     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     41   54   -2      -0.17    49.67     1.51    60.63     2.86    -2.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          41   51   -3     -11.50    11.12   -12.85    59.34     2.89    -0.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        40   45  -18      -1.22    45.25    -3.35    51.69     3.01   -20.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.57R    0.00  
Chester          41   43  -22       0.98    55.05     0.81    48.86     2.62   -23.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.41R    0.00  
Hereford         40   42  -18      -9.31    15.58   -12.60    50.12     3.18   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.02R    0.00  
Aldershot        40   41   +4     -12.92     8.78   -10.22    49.56     3.13     4.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.09R    0.00  
Dartford         40   40  -21      -6.31    24.70    -6.71    46.88     3.06   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.55R    0.00  
Tamworth         40   33  -29      -7.43    20.18    -6.32    38.51     2.86   -33.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.35R    0.00  
Hyde_United      40   10  -69     -19.46     0.28   -20.78    13.85     2.55   -77.43     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10