Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 28 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 March 2014, Liverpool 2 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          31   69  +39       6.24    79.02     6.69    84.05     3.10    47.66    25.25    69.29    97.48    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        31   68  +45       4.82    73.10     9.12    81.82     3.36    51.95    14.26    42.43    91.16    99.55   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         29   66  +52       1.59    57.67     9.27    85.75     3.48    65.15    60.30    86.53    98.11    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          31   63  +19       6.61    79.67    -2.59    75.90     3.37    24.13     0.19     1.72    12.51    84.00    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton          30   57  +16       6.99    81.35     3.30    69.96     3.72    18.88     0.00     0.03     0.67    13.95    87.72     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        31   56   +0       8.42    85.03    -6.86    67.44     3.42     2.62     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.04    69.45     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          31   51  +11      -5.51    24.10   -10.67    65.06     3.24    18.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56    42.87     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        31   46   -5       6.74    79.95     1.61    53.85     3.24    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      31   45   +5       3.24    66.03     7.58    54.06     3.35     3.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            31   37   -9       1.04    56.14     1.59    46.28     3.38    -9.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         31   34   -7      -4.46    29.16     0.03    41.36     3.18   -11.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.95R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      30   34   -9      -0.89    46.40     1.84    43.04     3.45   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36R    0.00  
Hull             31   33   -6      -0.54    48.13     8.38    40.11     3.26    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.95R    0.03  
Norwich          31   32  -22      -0.88    46.38    -5.52    37.64     3.04   -28.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.72R    0.69  
Swansea          31   30   -6      -8.61    13.67     1.73    39.84     3.48    -5.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.16R    0.19  
West_Brom        30   28  -12      -8.36    13.98    -3.25    38.00     3.54   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.56R    1.30  
Crystal_Palace   30   28  -20       1.29    58.50     2.58    34.21     3.15   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.53R   11.47  
Sunderland       29   25  -19      -7.03    17.46    -6.55    33.96     3.53   -25.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.31R   13.41  
Cardiff          31   25  -32      -1.85    41.22    -4.35    31.61     3.18   -36.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.39R   38.85  
Fulham           31   24  -40      -4.85    26.46   -13.92    32.19     3.34   -42.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.07R   34.05  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Bolton 1 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       37   82  +35      13.47    93.68     7.82    96.92     3.94    38.88    79.05    99.63   100.00    99.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         38   79  +33      13.80    93.48    13.40    91.93     3.79    35.82    20.87    96.35   100.00    97.27P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             38   69  +15       7.74    79.83     1.57    82.27     3.67    18.29     0.07     2.70    99.51    29.17P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           38   66  +21       6.93    77.30    10.53    79.77     3.74    25.25     0.01     1.06    98.36    23.38P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           37   62  +14       0.83    53.55    -1.49    76.59     3.99    17.39     0.00     0.25    87.41    24.21P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         38   59  +14      -3.21    36.52    -1.34    71.76     3.80    16.63     0.00     0.00    51.06    13.02P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   57   +8       1.68    57.33     3.24    68.75     3.71     9.23     0.00     0.00    18.46     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         38   57   +7       4.90    70.65     6.73    68.10     3.65     7.15     0.00     0.00    12.49     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        37   56   +8      -0.32    48.78    -0.48    70.09     3.85    10.53     0.00     0.00    28.56     6.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     38   52   -4       5.58    72.93     5.07    61.98     3.76    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   51   -1       0.12    50.98    -1.24    63.82     3.96    -0.14     0.00     0.00     1.94     0.36P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         37   49  +10      -9.00    16.11    -0.97    62.73     4.00    12.12     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   48   +4      -3.23    36.43     4.84    58.28     3.68     2.99     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    37   47   -5      -0.71    47.21     0.01    59.41     3.98    -5.13     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   38   46   +4      -6.39    24.66     3.45    57.37     3.64     4.63     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    38   45   -4      -2.35    40.10     3.30    53.89     3.61    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Bolton          38   44   -5      -9.43    15.61    -6.71    55.79     3.77    -3.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Blackpool       38   41  -21      -4.94    29.50   -11.99    50.12     3.54   -23.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.70R    0.08  
Birmingham      38   40   -8     -10.92    11.48    -5.91    50.93     3.75    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.26R    0.02  
Doncaster       38   40  -23       1.68    58.74    -2.78    47.65     3.49   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.71R    0.55  
Charlton        35   35  -18      -6.59    22.06    -9.38    48.69     4.32   -19.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.00R    0.87  
Yeovil          38   32  -22      -4.58    30.48     2.45    40.84     3.58   -25.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.68R   24.72  
Barnsley        37   32  -30      -4.81    29.25    -8.04    40.27     3.66   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.17R   37.32  
Millwall        38   32  -32      -6.99    21.27   -12.08    40.08     3.45   -36.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.21R   36.43  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 March 2014, Coventry 1 0 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   38   83  +46       5.38    72.26     7.38    99.02     3.61    53.80    83.34    98.65   100.00    99.26P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   79  +27      15.70    96.07     8.35    94.20     3.96    31.19    15.65    84.94   100.00    89.17P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   39   76  +36       9.18    83.50    16.12    87.72     3.46    39.22     0.90    12.78   100.00    39.74P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       38   72  +27      13.12    91.29    16.92    83.73     3.79    28.10     0.09     2.05    99.99    22.52P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         39   72  +17      12.33    90.29     7.80    83.64     3.46    19.96     0.02     1.57    99.99    25.36P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    38   58   +7      -2.61    39.39    -5.81    71.88     3.74    11.54     0.00     0.00    77.04    18.57P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         39   55   +3      -4.96    30.55    -6.59    64.46     3.53     2.76     0.00     0.00     4.67     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         39   54   +4      -7.03    22.97    -7.23    64.98     3.59     6.02     0.00     0.00     7.06     1.81P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         39   53   +3      -0.87    46.72     2.04    64.22     3.53     5.34     0.00     0.00     4.51     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       37   51   -1      -4.17    32.59    -7.68    64.35     4.02     0.54     0.00     0.00     5.34     1.35P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       38   50  -13       5.93    74.34     0.66    59.04     3.72   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Gillingham      39   48  -12       2.46    60.89     0.74    55.48     3.34   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.84R    0.00  
Bristol_City    39   46   +0     -10.93    13.56    -4.71    56.55     3.58     1.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.62R    0.01  
Crawley_Town    35   46   -5       2.05    59.89     0.98    60.10     4.43    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.17P    0.22R    0.00  
Bradford        38   45   +1      -0.94    46.75    10.09    53.83     3.67    -2.32     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.37R    0.03  
Coventry        38   45   +0      -0.28    49.12    -4.13    55.80     3.82    -0.47     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.03P    1.27R    0.02  
Colchester      38   43   -7      -2.72    39.12     2.54    52.86     3.69    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    8.41R    0.43  
Oldham          39   43  -12      -2.10    41.65     0.28    51.59     3.47   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.82R    0.73  
Crewe           39   40  -27      -0.24    49.67    -4.81    46.93     3.29   -31.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.95R   16.74  
Tranmere        38   39  -22      -5.62    27.41   -10.04    49.28     3.73   -23.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.21R    5.90  
Carlisle        38   39  -22      -2.34    40.47    -4.87    46.66     3.46   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.49R   18.18  
Shrewsbury      39   38  -13      -7.60    20.33    -2.05    46.70     3.41   -14.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.95R   14.77  
Notts_County    39   37  -17     -12.32     9.66    -9.85    46.17     3.50   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.93R   18.29  
Stevenage       38   37  -20      -5.92    26.25    -6.14    45.80     3.57   -23.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.87R   24.90  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Burton_Albion 1 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             39   73  +25       8.70    81.84     8.97    84.67     3.53    28.04    51.32    98.59   100.00    98.97P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           39   71  +24       2.56    60.20     2.15    83.60     3.51    28.31    37.85    97.62   100.00    98.48P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         40   70  +26       1.10    54.32     5.83    80.35     3.21    29.10    10.49    87.91   100.00    92.10P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       39   64  +11       7.48    78.65     6.44    73.55     3.50    10.98     0.21     8.43    96.58    29.84P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        39   64   +5       9.59    84.71     3.23    73.31     3.46     4.76     0.13     6.67    95.12    26.05P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           39   59   +9       1.97    58.53     3.45    68.94     3.49     9.57     0.00     0.51    72.46    19.51P    0.00     0.00  
York                 39   58   +8       5.35    71.96     8.21    67.07     3.40     7.35     0.00     0.14    51.27    11.14P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             39   56  +11      -4.28    32.84     1.00    67.13     3.47    13.19     0.00     0.12    58.20    18.51P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             39   55   +0       3.81    66.26     2.30    64.16     3.44    -0.44     0.00     0.01    18.34     3.58P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            39   51   +0      -0.20    49.59     2.83    60.44     3.49    -0.12     0.00     0.00     3.52     0.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool           39   49   +1      -7.84    20.99    -4.29    59.16     3.54     1.92     0.00     0.00     1.90     0.54P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County       38   49   -3       5.83    74.03     9.94    58.17     3.67    -5.60     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.22P    0.22R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        39   48   -5       1.47    57.18     4.70    56.97     3.44    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.05P    0.34R    0.02  
Cheltenham           39   48   -8      -3.97    34.15    -6.25    56.72     3.44    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    0.49R    0.02  
Morecambe            39   48  -12      -0.02    50.69    -4.26    56.35     3.43   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.94R    0.05  
Exeter               39   47   -3      -7.09    22.76    -4.12    56.23     3.46    -3.48     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.69R    0.06  
Mansfield            39   47  -11       2.86    62.75     2.26    55.71     3.49   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.70R    0.20  
Accrington_Stanley   39   46   -3      -3.04    37.64     3.02    55.00     3.43    -3.76     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    1.92R    0.12  
Bury                 38   44   -1     -10.11    14.35    -4.33    55.50     3.76    -0.19     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.07P    2.36R    0.22  
Bristol_Rovers       38   43   -8      -4.16    32.90    -1.61    53.52     3.71    -8.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.30R    1.21  
Wycombe              39   42   -9      -7.48    21.27    -4.02    51.08     3.44    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.28R    4.02  
Portsmouth           39   42  -17     -10.46    13.91   -15.99    51.71     3.51   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.33R    3.30  
Northampton          39   40  -18      -6.55    24.01    -8.76    48.59     3.45   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.03R   14.21  
Torquay              39   36  -22      -9.19    15.72   -10.71    43.86     3.37   -24.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.34R   76.57  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 27 March 2014, Braintree_Town 2 1 Nuneaton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            38   83  +61       5.79    74.65    19.30   100.08     3.44    71.00    99.90   100.00    99.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   69  +32       6.60    77.00    14.60    84.57     3.81    37.27     0.10    99.65    34.28P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    39   67   +1      15.85    95.49     5.65    77.16     3.56     1.77     0.00    75.06     9.71P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        39   62  +11       5.48    72.41     6.43    72.63     3.42    12.59     0.00    30.81     5.80P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   36   61  +15       8.37    82.70     9.76    74.57     4.07    14.60     0.00    51.60     9.92P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         40   61   -3      10.45    86.95     3.69    68.18     3.10    -4.65     0.00     2.81     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          38   60  +19       2.19    59.25    10.31    70.68     3.75    18.38     0.00    18.98     3.81P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   60  +16      -0.56    47.25    -0.65    77.07     4.05    21.66     0.00    76.45    25.17P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           39   60   +7      -2.69    38.62    -6.99    70.56     3.48     8.49     0.00    13.30     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    38   59   +2      -0.30    48.71    -9.33    71.52     3.74     4.28     0.00    19.69     4.77P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   58  +17      -3.45    35.35     2.15    69.21     3.69    17.19     0.00     9.42     2.38P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        39   56   -9      10.50    87.13     3.81    64.63     3.45   -10.51     0.00     0.28     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     37   54   +4       0.50    52.25     0.01    65.41     3.99     2.42     0.00     1.78     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          39   53   +2       2.66    61.66     6.87    62.38     3.40     1.59     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     40   53   -2      -0.17    49.61     1.12    60.99     3.18    -2.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          39   51   -1      -9.44    15.34   -11.84    62.27     3.48     1.42     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           37   51   -6       4.45    69.78     1.80    61.64     3.91    -8.84     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Southport        39   45  -14      -1.12    45.80    -1.45    53.34     3.34   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.01R    0.00  
Chester          40   43  -20       1.23    56.47     1.06    49.73     2.91   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.83R    0.00  
Hereford         39   42  -17      -8.33    18.14   -12.09    51.47     3.44   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.43R    0.00  
Aldershot        39   38   +3     -13.97     6.97   -10.06    49.18     3.28     5.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.35R    0.00  
Dartford         38   37  -21      -6.79    22.07    -6.93    46.17     3.59   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.54R    0.00  
Tamworth         39   32  -29      -7.23    20.25    -6.31    38.87     3.15   -33.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.84R    0.00  
Hyde_United      39   10  -68     -18.86     0.32   -20.90    14.10     2.67   -78.89     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10