Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 27 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 March 2014, Liverpool 2 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          31   69  +39       6.15    78.81     6.61    84.04     3.07    47.63    24.83    69.24    97.40    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        31   68  +45       4.90    73.61     9.29    81.82     3.36    51.96    14.19    42.06    91.30    99.54   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         29   66  +52       1.48    56.78     9.13    85.78     3.45    65.15    60.83    87.04    98.34    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          31   63  +19       6.72    79.95    -2.39    75.88     3.38    24.11     0.16     1.63    12.26    83.85    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Everton          30   57  +16       6.98    81.57     3.24    69.98     3.72    18.90     0.00     0.04     0.63    14.20    87.95     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        31   56   +0       8.53    85.40    -6.68    67.40     3.40     2.56     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.90    69.25     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          31   51  +11      -5.64    23.59   -10.87    65.05     3.25    18.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61    42.89     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        31   46   -5       6.84    80.42     1.81    53.84     3.26    -8.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      31   45   +5       3.29    66.16     7.74    54.03     3.35     3.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            31   37   -9       1.03    56.28     1.54    46.29     3.36    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham         31   34   -7      -4.40    29.37     0.11    41.32     3.16   -11.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.95R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      30   34   -9      -0.94    46.08     1.79    43.01     3.45   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39R    0.00  
Hull             31   33   -6      -0.50    48.29     8.45    40.09     3.26    -9.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.06R    0.03  
Norwich          31   32  -22      -0.85    46.36    -5.50    37.68     3.04   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.02R    0.65  
Swansea          31   30   -6      -8.52    14.21     1.88    39.79     3.48    -5.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.32R    0.19  
West_Brom        30   28  -12      -8.37    13.93    -3.30    38.05     3.53   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.40R    1.32  
Crystal_Palace   30   28  -20       1.41    59.21     2.82    34.18     3.15   -27.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.39R   12.04  
Sunderland       29   25  -19      -7.24    16.78    -6.87    34.03     3.53   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.62R   13.31  
Cardiff          31   25  -32      -1.95    40.80    -4.56    31.62     3.18   -36.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.45R   39.05  
Fulham           31   24  -40      -4.98    25.90   -14.24    32.26     3.34   -42.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.40R   33.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Bolton 1 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       37   82  +35      13.63    93.97     7.98    96.96     3.93    38.92    79.46    99.65   100.00    99.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         38   79  +33      13.95    93.81    13.57    91.87     3.77    35.74    20.43    96.31   100.00    97.35P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             38   69  +15       7.79    79.82     1.67    82.21     3.70    18.22     0.10     2.77    99.50    29.04P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           38   66  +21       6.78    76.66    10.32    79.74     3.74    25.20     0.00     1.05    98.27    23.33P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           37   62  +14       0.69    52.73    -1.72    76.62     3.98    17.43     0.00     0.22    87.73    24.15P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         38   59  +14      -3.34    36.12    -1.51    71.76     3.80    16.63     0.00     0.00    51.16    13.37P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   57   +8       1.73    57.68     3.34    68.77     3.70     9.25     0.00     0.00    18.10     3.56P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         38   57   +7       4.95    70.62     6.88    68.07     3.67     7.11     0.00     0.00    12.50     2.15P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        37   56   +8      -0.33    48.42    -0.51    70.08     3.87    10.52     0.00     0.00    28.32     6.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     38   52   -4       5.75    73.61     5.36    61.97     3.75    -5.47     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   51   -1      -0.05    50.04    -1.41    63.88     3.98    -0.07     0.00     0.00     2.16     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         37   49  +10      -9.08    16.18    -1.04    62.79     4.03    12.22     0.00     0.00     1.58     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   48   +4      -3.14    37.02     5.02    58.27     3.65     2.98     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    37   47   -5      -0.88    46.69    -0.27    59.47     3.97    -5.07     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   38   46   +4      -6.62    23.77     3.04    57.40     3.60     4.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield    38   45   -4      -2.30    40.69     3.42    53.88     3.60    -7.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Bolton          38   44   -5      -9.34    15.69    -6.55    55.73     3.77    -3.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Blackpool       38   41  -21      -4.98    29.56   -12.09    50.11     3.52   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.70R    0.06  
Birmingham      38   40   -8     -10.77    11.97    -5.74    50.89     3.75    -8.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.34R    0.04  
Doncaster       38   40  -23       1.47    57.63    -3.21    47.69     3.49   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.30R    0.54  
Charlton        35   35  -18      -6.57    22.23    -9.38    48.72     4.30   -19.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.69R    1.00  
Yeovil          38   32  -22      -4.41    31.13     2.68    40.85     3.57   -25.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.74R   24.73  
Barnsley        37   32  -30      -4.76    29.33    -7.85    40.26     3.65   -36.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.60R   36.98  
Millwall        38   32  -32      -6.98    21.25   -12.03    40.08     3.44   -36.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.37R   36.65  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 March 2014, Coventry 1 0 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   38   83  +46       5.35    72.25     7.37    99.02     3.59    53.80    83.07    98.73   100.00    99.34P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   79  +27      15.63    95.90     8.28    94.24     3.98    31.24    16.05    85.19   100.00    89.59P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   39   76  +36       9.21    83.18    16.20    87.69     3.44    39.16     0.81    12.36   100.00    39.84P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       38   72  +27      13.23    91.43    17.10    83.65     3.76    27.99     0.05     2.04    99.99    22.41P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         39   72  +17      12.39    90.11     7.87    83.65     3.48    19.98     0.02     1.69    99.99    25.28P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    38   58   +7      -2.73    39.02    -6.03    71.91     3.74    11.56     0.00     0.00    77.16    18.48P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         39   55   +3      -5.13    29.71    -6.85    64.46     3.53     2.79     0.00     0.00     4.72     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         39   54   +4      -7.02    23.20    -7.25    65.02     3.57     6.07     0.00     0.00     6.90     1.67P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         39   53   +3      -0.93    46.69     1.99    64.22     3.54     5.32     0.00     0.00     4.53     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       37   51   -1      -4.12    32.65    -7.62    64.35     4.01     0.56     0.00     0.00     5.28     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       38   50  -13       5.66    72.78     0.16    59.06     3.72   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Gillingham      39   48  -12       2.12    59.51     0.15    55.55     3.36   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.86R    0.00  
Bristol_City    39   46   +0     -10.90    13.46    -4.70    56.57     3.58     1.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.58R    0.01  
Crawley_Town    35   46   -5       2.06    59.66     0.97    60.12     4.44    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.16P    0.21R    0.00  
Bradford        38   45   +1      -0.81    47.03    10.19    53.85     3.66    -2.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.22R    0.03  
Coventry        38   45   +0      -0.00    50.16    -3.77    55.74     3.81    -0.57     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    1.28R    0.01  
Colchester      38   43   -7      -2.76    38.66     2.54    52.87     3.72    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.47R    0.44  
Oldham          39   43  -12      -2.14    41.31     0.23    51.59     3.45   -13.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.71R    0.73  
Crewe           39   40  -27      -0.39    49.27    -5.00    46.96     3.33   -31.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.37R   16.76  
Tranmere        38   39  -22      -5.39    28.14    -9.68    49.27     3.75   -23.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.39R    6.07  
Carlisle        38   39  -22      -2.33    40.67    -4.78    46.66     3.44   -27.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.25R   17.74  
Shrewsbury      39   38  -13      -7.57    20.60    -1.99    46.65     3.41   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.21R   14.80  
Notts_County    39   37  -17     -12.16     9.70    -9.55    46.12     3.49   -17.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.27R   18.32  
Stevenage       38   37  -20      -5.71    26.73    -5.85    45.75     3.56   -23.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.16R   25.08  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Burton_Albion 1 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             39   73  +25       8.61    81.72     8.84    84.67     3.55    28.01    51.02    98.49   100.00    98.93P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           39   71  +24       2.49    59.56     1.96    83.66     3.50    28.42    38.30    97.82   100.00    98.59P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         40   70  +26       1.18    54.56     6.00    80.31     3.21    29.07    10.34    87.54   100.00    92.04P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       39   64  +11       7.26    77.53     6.08    73.59     3.49    11.03     0.23     8.61    96.71    29.97P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        39   64   +5       9.61    84.79     3.25    73.31     3.47     4.75     0.11     6.72    95.10    26.21P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           39   59   +9       1.99    58.60     3.51    68.95     3.45     9.55     0.00     0.50    73.06    19.48P    0.00     0.00  
York                 39   58   +8       5.56    73.06     8.47    67.03     3.40     7.30     0.00     0.16    51.07    10.97P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             39   56  +11      -4.32    32.42     0.98    67.12     3.47    13.14     0.00     0.15    58.13    18.26P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             39   55   +0       3.94    66.76     2.49    64.13     3.44    -0.46     0.00     0.01    18.03     3.84P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            39   51   +0      -0.25    49.48     2.79    60.44     3.50    -0.11     0.00     0.00     3.51     0.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool           39   49   +1      -7.75    21.10    -4.06    59.19     3.50     1.95     0.00     0.00     1.82     0.49P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County       38   49   -3       5.40    72.44     9.31    58.20     3.65    -5.55     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.19P    0.21R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        39   48   -5       1.43    56.90     4.65    57.00     3.46    -5.76     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.41R    0.01  
Cheltenham           39   48   -8      -3.97    34.11    -6.32    56.74     3.46    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.07P    0.46R    0.02  
Morecambe            39   48  -12      -0.14    50.14    -4.45    56.33     3.43   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    1.01R    0.07  
Exeter               39   47   -3      -6.94    23.35    -3.91    56.23     3.45    -3.53     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P    0.66R    0.06  
Mansfield            39   47  -11       2.82    62.90     2.15    55.69     3.50   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.75R    0.17  
Accrington_Stanley   39   46   -3      -2.98    38.19     3.13    54.97     3.42    -3.79     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.04P    1.94R    0.13  
Bury                 38   44   -1     -10.20    14.06    -4.47    55.52     3.77    -0.17     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.08P    2.37R    0.22  
Bristol_Rovers       38   43   -8      -4.06    33.70    -1.55    53.56     3.71    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.02R    1.15  
Wycombe              39   42   -9      -7.40    21.44    -3.93    51.06     3.43    -9.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.11R    3.99  
Portsmouth           39   42  -17     -10.49    13.80   -15.96    51.71     3.52   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.57R    3.28  
Northampton          39   40  -18      -6.27    24.85    -8.38    48.56     3.44   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.95R   14.33  
Torquay              39   36  -22      -9.11    15.78   -10.60    43.84     3.36   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.50R   76.56  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 27 March 2014, Braintree_Town 2 1 Nuneaton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            38   83  +61       5.64    74.16    19.12   100.11     3.41    71.05    99.91   100.00    99.96P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   69  +32       6.57    76.84    14.66    84.56     3.81    37.23     0.09    99.67    33.97P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    39   67   +1      15.87    95.76     5.62    77.18     3.52     1.81     0.00    75.55     9.74P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        39   62  +11       5.41    72.03     6.36    72.62     3.41    12.56     0.00    30.15     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   36   61  +15       8.18    82.22     9.49    74.64     4.09    14.71     0.00    52.03    10.31P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         40   61   -3      10.38    87.03     3.58    68.18     3.09    -4.64     0.00     2.82     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          38   60  +19       2.38    59.93    10.64    70.61     3.80    18.29     0.00    18.84     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   60  +16      -0.53    47.47    -0.68    77.04     4.05    21.59     0.00    75.98    24.56P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           39   60   +7      -2.68    38.36    -7.00    70.58     3.48     8.53     0.00    13.25     3.43P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    38   59   +2      -0.43    48.25    -9.56    71.59     3.74     4.34     0.00    20.35     4.97P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   58  +17      -3.38    35.67     2.31    69.15     3.68    17.11     0.00     9.18     2.22P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        39   56   -9      10.44    87.16     3.76    64.60     3.44   -10.53     0.00     0.29     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     37   54   +4       0.29    51.59    -0.29    65.43     4.00     2.44     0.00     1.76     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          39   53   +2       2.66    61.63     6.85    62.37     3.42     1.54     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     40   53   -2       0.02    50.75     1.40    60.95     3.15    -2.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          39   51   -1      -9.45    15.12   -11.89    62.30     3.47     1.47     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           37   51   -6       4.55    69.80     1.92    61.65     3.92    -8.82     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Southport        39   45  -14      -1.05    45.90    -1.36    53.36     3.35   -15.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.02R    0.00  
Chester          40   43  -20       1.18    56.23     1.08    49.75     2.90   -22.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.15R    0.00  
Hereford         39   42  -17      -8.20    18.45   -11.93    51.48     3.45   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.33R    0.00  
Aldershot        39   38   +3     -13.90     6.93    -9.92    49.13     3.28     5.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.52R    0.00  
Dartford         38   37  -21      -6.88    21.94    -7.11    46.20     3.59   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.19R    0.00  
Tamworth         39   32  -29      -7.08    20.61    -6.03    38.87     3.16   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.77R    0.00  
Hyde_United      39   10  -68     -18.91     0.35   -21.02    14.11     2.68   -78.86     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10