Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 25 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Arsenal 2 2 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          31   69  +39       6.37    79.75     6.96    83.99     3.10    47.57    25.37    70.65    97.49    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         29   66  +52       1.58    57.76     9.29    85.77     3.44    65.18    61.50    87.66    98.29    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        30   65  +44       4.10    70.12     9.60    81.42     3.52    53.19    12.94    39.70    89.09    99.27   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          31   63  +19       6.57    79.56    -2.62    75.92     3.38    24.17     0.19     1.97    14.18    84.16    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Everton          30   57  +16       7.04    81.74     3.29    69.98     3.71    18.90     0.00     0.02     0.84    14.14    88.08     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        31   56   +0       8.60    85.55    -6.58    67.40     3.39     2.57     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.00    69.49     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          31   51  +11      -5.48    24.26   -10.63    65.04     3.25    18.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57    42.51     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        31   46   -5       6.87    80.66     1.80    53.77     3.23    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      31   45   +5       3.13    65.52     7.49    54.07     3.35     3.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            31   37   -9       0.99    55.89     1.50    46.29     3.35    -9.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      30   34   -9      -0.98    45.86     1.73    43.00     3.46   -12.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41R    0.00  
Hull             30   33   -5       0.30    52.55     8.60    41.15     3.48    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.20R    0.02  
Norwich          31   32  -22      -0.71    47.28    -5.23    37.64     3.02   -29.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.53R    0.79  
West_Ham         30   31   -8      -5.53    24.04    -0.28    39.99     3.45   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.98R    0.12  
Swansea          31   30   -6      -8.79    12.94     1.39    39.92     3.48    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.95R    0.14  
West_Brom        30   28  -12      -8.33    14.04    -3.18    38.05     3.56   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.75R    1.27  
Crystal_Palace   30   28  -20       1.37    58.81     2.74    34.17     3.17   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.31R   11.92  
Sunderland       28   25  -18      -6.34    19.46    -6.96    34.24     3.63   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.01R   12.79  
Cardiff          31   25  -32      -2.10    40.02    -4.69    31.67     3.17   -36.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.31R   38.48  
Fulham           31   24  -40      -5.00    25.66   -14.22    32.23     3.35   -42.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.55R   34.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Bolton 1 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       37   82  +35      13.63    93.91     8.12    96.92     3.95    38.88    79.21    99.62   100.00    99.72P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         38   79  +33      13.83    93.73    13.39    91.92     3.76    35.81    20.71    96.50   100.00    97.40P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             38   69  +15       7.60    79.38     1.43    82.28     3.67    18.32     0.07     2.65    99.50    29.23P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           38   66  +21       6.95    77.12    10.54    79.75     3.72    25.22     0.01     1.00    98.31    22.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           37   62  +14       0.82    53.23    -1.45    76.57     3.97    17.34     0.00     0.23    87.41    24.18P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         38   59  +14      -3.40    35.78    -1.61    71.78     3.80    16.69     0.00     0.00    51.12    13.54P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   57   +8       1.77    57.78     3.39    68.76     3.70     9.22     0.00     0.00    18.32     3.38P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         38   57   +7       4.87    70.58     6.65    68.10     3.69     7.14     0.00     0.00    12.82     2.21P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        37   56   +8      -0.24    49.07    -0.39    70.10     3.87    10.53     0.00     0.00    28.57     6.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     38   52   -4       5.62    73.19     5.10    61.98     3.77    -5.46     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   51   -1       0.13    51.19    -1.15    63.85     3.97    -0.12     0.00     0.00     1.88     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         37   49  +10      -9.03    16.56    -0.97    62.71     4.02    12.11     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   48   +4      -3.16    36.83     5.03    58.26     3.70     2.95     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    37   47   -5      -0.54    48.24     0.21    59.39     3.95    -5.17     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   38   46   +4      -6.40    24.52     3.41    57.36     3.64     4.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    38   45   -4      -2.31    40.50     3.46    53.85     3.61    -7.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Bolton          38   44   -5      -9.62    14.79    -6.98    55.77     3.78    -3.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Blackpool       38   41  -21      -4.96    29.50   -12.03    50.10     3.53   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.86R    0.08  
Birmingham      38   40   -8     -10.76    11.95    -5.75    50.91     3.77    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38R    0.02  
Doncaster       38   40  -23       1.48    57.76    -3.11    47.70     3.47   -27.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.56R    0.53  
Charlton        35   35  -18      -6.67    21.82    -9.56    48.75     4.29   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.38R    0.95  
Yeovil          38   32  -22      -4.60    30.60     2.35    40.86     3.55   -25.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.97R   24.84  
Barnsley        37   32  -30      -4.78    29.16    -7.94    40.30     3.67   -36.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.28R   37.23  
Millwall        38   32  -32      -7.03    21.24   -12.13    40.12     3.44   -36.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.31R   36.35  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Bradford 0 2 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   38   83  +46       5.44    72.56     7.43    99.03     3.59    53.81    83.10    98.82   100.00    99.34P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   79  +27      15.57    95.71     8.18    94.24     3.98    31.23    15.97    85.03   100.00    89.39P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   39   76  +36       9.32    83.61    16.29    87.68     3.45    39.15     0.82    12.43   100.00    39.60P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       38   72  +27      13.14    91.23    16.93    83.72     3.80    28.07     0.09     2.14    99.99    22.45P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         39   72  +17      12.16    90.14     7.55    83.67     3.47    20.01     0.02     1.59   100.00    25.29P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    38   58   +7      -2.58    39.21    -5.78    71.88     3.73    11.54     0.00     0.00    77.62    18.92P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         39   55   +3      -5.13    29.68    -6.85    64.49     3.52     2.80     0.00     0.00     4.62     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         39   54   +4      -6.95    23.26    -7.10    64.97     3.55     6.00     0.00     0.00     6.69     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         39   53   +3      -0.74    47.35     2.20    64.18     3.54     5.29     0.00     0.00     4.37     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       37   51   -1      -4.03    33.24    -7.48    64.32     4.01     0.51     0.00     0.00     5.34     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale       38   50  -13       5.87    73.90     0.59    59.02     3.70   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Gillingham      39   48  -12       2.35    60.44     0.60    55.49     3.35   -15.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City    39   46   +0     -11.01    13.09    -4.81    56.60     3.58     1.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.62R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    35   46   -5       2.00    59.63     0.83    60.10     4.41    -6.40     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.15P    0.22R    0.00  
Bradford        38   45   +1      -0.87    46.90    10.16    53.82     3.64    -2.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.52R    0.05  
Colchester      38   43   -7      -2.84    38.28     2.45    52.90     3.72    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.87R    0.45  
Oldham          39   43  -12      -2.23    41.15     0.16    51.58     3.46   -13.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.38R    0.84  
Coventry        37   42   -1      -1.22    45.15    -4.02    54.61     4.05    -0.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.98R    0.18  
Crewe           39   40  -27      -0.27    49.92    -4.82    46.96     3.31   -31.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.01R   17.93  
Tranmere        38   39  -22      -5.68    27.28   -10.14    49.35     3.73   -22.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.64R    6.21  
Carlisle        38   39  -22      -2.43    40.42    -4.98    46.66     3.47   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.29R   19.34  
Shrewsbury      39   38  -13      -7.54    20.36    -1.95    46.63     3.38   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.95R   15.91  
Notts_County    39   37  -17     -12.30     9.44    -9.78    46.16     3.51   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.99R   19.55  
Stevenage       37   37  -19      -4.90    29.79    -5.67    46.72     3.82   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.46R   19.53  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Burton_Albion 1 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             39   73  +25       8.70    81.80     9.00    84.70     3.55    28.05    50.98    98.53   100.00    98.95P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           39   71  +24       2.44    59.87     1.93    83.70     3.49    28.42    38.38    97.85   100.00    98.56P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         40   70  +26       0.99    53.91     5.69    80.37     3.20    29.11    10.35    87.72   100.00    92.16P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       39   64  +11       7.45    78.40     6.37    73.58     3.47    11.03     0.17     8.45    96.78    29.85P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        39   64   +5       9.40    83.96     2.95    73.37     3.46     4.83     0.11     6.84    95.24    26.32P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           39   59   +9       1.92    58.33     3.42    68.90     3.47     9.53     0.00     0.42    72.65    19.29P    0.00     0.00  
York                 39   58   +8       5.75    73.64     8.74    67.02     3.40     7.27     0.00     0.09    50.94    10.75P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             39   56  +11      -4.20    32.89     1.12    67.07     3.46    13.13     0.00     0.09    57.95    18.53P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             39   55   +0       3.76    66.03     2.30    64.14     3.44    -0.45     0.00     0.00    18.28     3.81P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            39   51   +0      -0.21    49.76     2.84    60.44     3.49    -0.11     0.00     0.00     3.58     0.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool           39   49   +1      -7.77    21.03    -4.12    59.20     3.52     1.96     0.00     0.00     1.91     0.54P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County       38   49   -3       5.59    73.06     9.55    58.17     3.68    -5.59     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.18P    0.16R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        39   48   -5       1.63    57.60     4.91    56.97     3.46    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.09P    0.37R    0.02  
Cheltenham           39   48   -8      -3.73    34.96    -5.92    56.66     3.45    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.07P    0.49R    0.02  
Morecambe            39   48  -12      -0.05    50.55    -4.29    56.34     3.42   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.94R    0.06  
Exeter               39   47   -3      -6.91    23.60    -3.86    56.22     3.45    -3.49     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.68R    0.04  
Mansfield            39   47  -11       2.74    62.21     2.03    55.72     3.45   -12.21     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.55R    0.15  
Accrington_Stanley   39   46   -3      -3.23    37.07     2.75    55.02     3.44    -3.72     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    1.90R    0.11  
Bury                 38   44   -1     -10.12    14.18    -4.34    55.48     3.75    -0.22     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.07P    2.44R    0.21  
Bristol_Rovers       38   43   -8      -4.03    33.39    -1.51    53.49     3.72    -8.53     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    7.45R    1.20  
Wycombe              39   42   -9      -7.32    21.43    -3.82    51.05     3.42    -9.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.57R    4.26  
Portsmouth           39   42  -17     -10.71    13.34   -16.24    51.72     3.53   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.62R    3.31  
Northampton          39   40  -18      -6.48    24.16    -8.70    48.59     3.44   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.65R   14.32  
Torquay              39   36  -22      -9.22    15.73   -10.79    43.87     3.37   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.14R   76.31  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 March 2014, Aldershot 1 2 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            38   83  +61       5.75    74.72    19.32   100.08     3.43    71.00    99.96   100.00    99.98P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    39   67   +1      15.85    95.65     5.71    77.14     3.54     1.73     0.00    74.04     9.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   66  +29       6.08    75.77    13.32    82.85     4.05    34.11     0.04    98.42    31.65P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        39   62  +11       5.38    71.81     6.15    72.70     3.42    12.68     0.00    30.54     6.07P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         39   61   -2      11.05    88.60     3.50    69.09     3.35    -4.29     0.00     5.85     0.81P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          38   60  +19       2.22    59.57    10.32    70.63     3.76    18.33     0.00    18.16     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   60  +16      -0.54    47.55    -0.65    77.08     4.05    21.68     0.00    75.80    25.19P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           39   60   +7      -2.75    38.38    -7.10    70.60     3.47     8.54     0.00    13.25     3.72P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    38   59   +2      -0.29    48.57    -9.32    71.50     3.77     4.20     0.00    19.70     4.93P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     37   58  +19      -2.63    38.32     3.23    70.79     3.96    19.55     0.00    19.86     4.98P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   35   58  +14       7.15    79.56     9.35    73.46     4.34    14.35     0.00    41.29     8.27P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        38   56   -6      10.58    87.52     4.74    66.06     3.70    -7.38     0.00     1.16     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     37   54   +4       0.29    51.62    -0.38    65.44     3.99     2.49     0.00     1.79     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          39   53   +2       2.58    61.23     6.70    62.40     3.41     1.63     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     40   53   -2       0.09    50.86     1.47    60.99     3.19    -2.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          39   51   -1      -9.40    15.48   -11.90    62.23     3.48     1.40     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           37   51   -6       4.40    69.46     1.74    61.66     3.91    -8.85     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Chester          40   43  -20       1.21    56.46     1.06    49.72     2.91   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.70R    0.00  
Southport        38   42  -16      -2.03    41.57    -2.27    51.55     3.62   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.13R    0.00  
Hereford         39   42  -17      -8.25    18.29   -12.00    51.52     3.46   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.47R    0.00  
Aldershot        39   38   +3     -13.70     7.64    -9.55    49.09     3.30     5.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.92R    0.00  
Dartford         38   37  -21      -6.75    22.42    -6.93    46.15     3.60   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.17R    0.00  
Tamworth         39   32  -29      -7.02    20.94    -5.91    38.86     3.17   -33.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.60R    0.00  
Hyde_United      39   10  -68     -18.81     0.36   -20.61    14.07     2.67   -78.89     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10