Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 23 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 March 2014, Aston_Villa 1 4 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          31   69  +39       6.23    79.19     6.71    84.01     3.08    47.63    35.73    74.05    96.01    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        30   65  +44       4.23    71.03     9.84    81.42     3.53    53.18    18.38    44.15    84.57    99.34   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   63  +49       0.94    53.90     8.15    83.95     3.75    61.78    44.68    75.12    93.14    99.73   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   62  +19       7.39    82.66    -2.02    77.22     3.62    25.64     1.21     6.62    25.79    91.78    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        31   56   +0       8.49    85.40    -6.78    67.41     3.39     2.57     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.53    65.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton          29   54  +13       6.34    79.54     1.76    68.27     4.00    15.76     0.00     0.05     0.42     5.98    73.28     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   51  +14      -5.01    25.41    -9.23    66.53     3.54    21.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.66    60.70     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        30   46   -2       7.21    82.18     3.20    55.16     3.52    -5.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      31   45   +5       3.13    65.28     7.46    54.09     3.35     3.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            31   37   -9       1.02    56.07     1.60    46.25     3.37    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      30   34   -9      -0.90    46.31     1.92    42.97     3.43   -12.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42R    0.01  
Hull             30   33   -5       0.14    51.57     8.32    41.17     3.50    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.27R    0.01  
Norwich          31   32  -22      -0.60    47.87    -5.07    37.63     3.02   -29.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.03R    0.75  
West_Ham         30   31   -8      -5.61    23.80    -0.37    40.00     3.45   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.88R    0.14  
Swansea          30   29   -6      -8.64    13.14     1.01    39.40     3.65    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.98R    0.38  
West_Brom        30   28  -12      -8.25    14.33    -3.10    38.04     3.54   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.46R    1.50  
Crystal_Palace   30   28  -20       1.23    58.05     2.54    34.28     3.18   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.13R   11.44  
Sunderland       28   25  -18      -6.36    19.78    -7.10    34.30     3.64   -26.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.01R   12.70  
Cardiff          31   25  -32      -2.12    39.93    -4.76    31.63     3.16   -36.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.62R   39.16  
Fulham           31   24  -40      -4.95    25.48   -14.11    32.28     3.36   -42.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.18R   33.91  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 March 2014, Barnsley 0 1 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       36   81  +35      14.63    95.38     9.05    98.45     4.10    40.78    88.08    99.80   100.00    99.85P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         37   76  +31      13.35    93.28    13.13    91.09     3.95    35.01    11.84    93.17   100.00    94.89P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   66  +22       7.82    80.45    10.77    81.21     3.99    26.35     0.05     3.72    97.62    25.07P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   66  +14       6.35    75.81     0.94    80.81     3.91    17.54     0.02     2.24    95.72    26.98P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           36   62  +15       1.62    57.04    -1.33    77.72     4.22    18.08     0.01     0.95    84.45    23.58P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         37   59  +16      -2.29    40.19     0.04    74.41     3.99    20.68     0.00     0.10    64.02    17.21P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   57   +9       2.89    62.75     4.01    70.77     3.97    11.13     0.00     0.00    23.02     4.47P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        36   56   +9       0.58    52.50    -0.09    71.57     4.11    11.74     0.00     0.00    28.72     6.71P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         37   54   +6       3.96    67.24     6.75    66.42     3.92     6.09     0.00     0.00     3.66     0.65P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       36   50   -1       0.35    51.88    -1.48    63.73     4.18    -0.82     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     37   49   -7       5.26    72.29     4.04    60.23     4.01    -8.61     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         36   48  +10      -8.49    17.12    -0.71    63.61     4.25    12.85     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    36   47   -2      -0.47    48.69     1.18    60.95     4.22    -1.84     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   37   45   +4      -5.97    25.56     3.49    57.60     3.89     4.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   45   +3      -4.35    31.55     4.68    56.54     3.90     1.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    37   44   -4      -1.76    42.70     3.62    54.27     3.85    -7.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Bolton          37   41   -6     -10.37    12.66    -6.66    54.61     4.02    -4.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29R    0.00  
Blackpool       37   41  -20      -4.26    32.14   -11.97    51.03     3.73   -23.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.61R    0.01  
Doncaster       37   40  -21       1.75    59.19    -2.75    48.25     3.65   -27.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.73R    0.16  
Birmingham      37   37   -9     -12.19     8.35    -6.47    49.26     3.99    -9.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.03R    0.13  
Charlton        34   32  -19      -8.43    15.37   -10.63    46.46     4.50   -21.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.62R    2.30  
Millwall        37   32  -31      -5.94    24.52   -11.70    41.44     3.71   -35.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.56R   14.29  
Yeovil          37   31  -22      -4.74    29.95     1.59    40.28     3.71   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.76R   21.79  
Barnsley        36   29  -32      -6.04    23.76    -9.50    37.48     3.75   -40.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.26R   61.31  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 March 2014, Brentford 3 1 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   37   80  +44       5.13    71.63     7.78    98.14     3.81    52.84    66.82    96.33   100.00    97.95P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   79  +30      15.90    96.36     9.52    96.02     4.23    34.82    31.36    88.72   100.00    92.34P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   38   75  +36       9.96    85.48    16.65    88.71     3.69    40.16     1.78    13.91   100.00    41.54P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       37   69  +24      12.83    90.89    16.04    81.68     4.02    24.44     0.04     0.65    99.75    20.13P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         38   69  +15      11.37    88.81     6.78    81.97     3.73    17.92     0.00     0.39    99.82    23.79P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    37   58   +9      -1.93    42.00    -4.90    73.19     3.99    13.46     0.00     0.00    82.37    20.30P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         38   55   +4      -4.04    33.60    -6.26    66.47     3.80     4.74     0.00     0.00     9.24     2.09P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         38   51   +3      -8.18    19.16    -7.57    63.56     3.85     5.30     0.00     0.00     2.91     0.72P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         38   50   +1      -1.68    43.21     1.30    62.47     3.79     3.17     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale       37   50   -8       5.02    70.75     1.71    60.49     4.01   -11.19     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       36   48   -3      -5.22    28.16    -8.87    62.59     4.26    -1.60     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    34   46   -3       2.61    62.31     1.72    61.55     4.63    -4.24     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.28P    0.12R    0.00  
Bradford        37   45   +3      -0.29    49.36    10.92    55.33     3.92    -0.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    2.06R    0.03  
Gillingham      38   45  -13       0.80    54.02    -0.25    53.29     3.58   -17.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.57R    0.12  
Bristol_City    38   43   -5     -10.26    14.51    -6.10    55.07     3.84    -3.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.01R    0.11  
Colchester      37   43   -5      -2.51    39.63     2.55    53.47     3.85    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.72R    0.33  
Coventry        37   42   -1      -1.30    44.68    -4.17    54.58     4.07    -0.83     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    4.69R    0.17  
Oldham          38   42  -12      -1.96    42.38    -0.04    51.22     3.67   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.50R    1.44  
Crewe           38   40  -25       0.41    52.72    -4.04    48.42     3.64   -29.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.64R   10.00  
Tranmere        37   39  -21      -4.64    30.97    -9.74    50.48     3.98   -22.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.79R    3.71  
Carlisle        37   38  -22      -2.10    41.53    -4.83    47.15     3.71   -27.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.64R   15.78  
Shrewsbury      38   37  -13      -7.03    21.90    -1.57    46.95     3.69   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.90R   13.93  
Stevenage       37   37  -19      -5.10    28.60    -5.97    46.74     3.81   -22.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.40R   17.76  
Notts_County    38   34  -19     -13.14     7.69   -10.63    44.44     3.77   -19.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.94R   36.61  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 March 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 4 3 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             38   70  +22       8.33    80.95     7.83    83.34     3.82    25.47    49.58    97.51   100.00    98.30P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           38   68  +22       1.75    56.98     1.34    82.13     3.78    26.54    36.12    95.87   100.00    97.32P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         39   67  +25       0.02    50.04     5.67    79.37     3.47    29.07    13.77    86.77    99.99    91.45P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       38   61   +9       6.94    76.88     5.91    72.06     3.75     9.17     0.28     8.79    92.02    28.33P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        38   61   +4       8.59    82.14     3.06    71.85     3.72     4.00     0.17     6.94    89.15    25.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   59  +12       2.00    58.49     4.67    70.32     3.72    12.64     0.08     3.62    83.97    26.01P    0.00     0.00  
York                 38   55   +7       4.40    68.89     8.20    65.67     3.67     6.68     0.00     0.17    39.01     8.48P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             38   55   +1       4.67    69.66     2.62    65.64     3.71     0.76     0.00     0.13    35.08     7.66P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             38   53   +8      -4.72    30.71    -0.38    65.49     3.75    10.20     0.00     0.19    40.49    12.47P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            38   50   +0       0.20    51.41     2.98    60.90     3.79    -0.00     0.00     0.00     6.30     1.35P    0.05R    0.00  
Hartlepool           38   49   +3      -6.83    23.51    -2.78    61.14     3.74     4.75     0.00     0.01     8.08     2.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County       37   48   -3       5.89    74.17     9.67    58.39     3.95    -5.88     0.00     0.00     2.20     0.32P    0.47R    0.03  
Cheltenham           38   48   -6      -3.51    35.66    -5.55    58.06     3.71    -7.24     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.27P    0.40R    0.02  
Morecambe            38   48  -11       0.67    53.41    -4.21    57.13     3.63   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.11P    1.08R    0.10  
AFC_Wimbledon        38   47   -5       2.07    59.75     4.93    57.19     3.71    -5.98     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.15P    1.01R    0.07  
Accrington_Stanley   38   45   -3      -2.80    38.74     2.91    55.22     3.68    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    3.18R    0.38  
Exeter               38   44   -4      -8.32    18.86    -4.56    54.38     3.70    -4.78     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    4.66R    0.92  
Mansfield            38   44  -13       1.98    59.38     1.10    53.35     3.67   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   11.14R    2.50  
Bury                 37   43   -1      -9.91    14.57    -4.51    56.00     4.05    -0.02     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.22P    3.00R    0.50  
Bristol_Rovers       37   43   -6      -3.60    34.74    -0.94    54.77     3.96    -6.67     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P    5.68R    1.20  
Wycombe              38   42   -8      -6.65    23.50    -3.78    52.25     3.67    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.11R    3.90  
Portsmouth           38   42  -14     -10.70    12.94   -15.27    52.83     3.78   -14.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.37R    3.13  
Northampton          38   39  -18      -6.09    25.09    -8.80    49.05     3.69   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.48R   18.10  
Torquay              38   36  -21      -8.15    18.60   -10.09    45.01     3.61   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.35R   69.16  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Aldershot 0 0 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            36   77  +57       4.35    69.40    18.55    97.83     3.86    68.85    99.65   100.00    99.81P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    38   67   +3      16.19    96.12     5.95    78.09     3.79     2.94     0.01    83.05    10.90P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   66  +29       5.91    74.88    13.08    82.91     4.04    34.23     0.31    98.74    32.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         38   61   -1      12.16    91.02     4.16    70.44     3.62    -3.32     0.00    14.79     2.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    37   58   +2       0.23    50.71    -9.11    72.78     3.97     5.63     0.00    35.60     9.03P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   57  +19      -1.82    41.50     3.89    71.85     4.21    20.57     0.00    32.16     8.03P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          37   57  +17       1.78    57.77    10.32    69.51     4.02    17.12     0.00    15.43     3.13P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   57  +16      -0.75    46.41    -0.68    76.89     4.53    21.83     0.03    75.15    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           38   57   +5      -3.14    36.60    -7.31    69.41     3.72     7.20     0.00    10.75     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        37   56   +8       3.23    64.32     4.99    69.18     3.90     9.29     0.00    10.66     2.21P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        37   55   -6      10.68    87.85     4.43    65.62     3.92    -8.68     0.00     1.65     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     39   53   +0       0.51    52.54     2.01    62.02     3.42    -0.86     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   33   52  +11       5.06    72.87     8.22    69.88     4.77    10.84     0.00    19.16     3.71P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          37   52   +4       3.35    64.27     7.29    63.89     3.90     3.13     0.00     0.78     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     36   51   +3      -0.58    47.49    -0.16    64.61     4.20     2.65     0.00     1.69     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           37   51   -6       4.31    68.82     1.60    61.58     3.93    -8.97     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          38   50   -1      -8.73    16.91   -11.48    63.34     3.73     2.46     0.00     0.21     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         38   42  -15      -7.96    18.98   -11.55    52.40     3.64   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.54R    0.00  
Southport        37   41  -16      -1.97    41.63    -2.73    51.22     3.81   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.16R    0.00  
Chester          38   40  -19       0.30    52.23     0.69    48.72     3.31   -23.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.52R    0.00  
Aldershot        37   38   +5     -11.83    10.05    -8.99    52.41     3.84     8.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.33R    0.00  
Dartford         37   34  -23      -7.67    18.80    -7.62    44.53     3.87   -25.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.49R    0.00  
Tamworth         37   32  -26      -5.92    24.38    -5.48    40.69     3.64   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.97R    0.00  
Hyde_United      38   10  -66     -18.21     0.45   -20.08    15.46     3.03   -76.88     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10