Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 22 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 March 2014, Cardiff 3 6 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          31   69  +39       6.23    79.17     6.60    84.05     3.07    47.69    36.12    74.12    95.82    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        30   65  +44       4.21    70.72     9.65    81.49     3.50    53.30    18.60    44.47    85.02    99.45    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   63  +49       0.84    53.42     7.96    83.92     3.76    61.67    43.98    74.49    92.80    99.75   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   62  +19       7.35    82.69    -2.11    77.27     3.62    25.77     1.31     6.90    25.89    92.32    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Everton          29   54  +13       6.31    79.52     1.73    68.29     3.99    15.81     0.00     0.02     0.41     5.95    78.02     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   53   -1       7.73    83.41    -6.46    66.14     3.67     2.08     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.95    54.41     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   51  +14      -4.94    25.77    -9.12    66.50     3.54    21.25     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.61    66.36     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        30   46   -2       7.30    82.39     3.30    55.18     3.51    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   45   +6       4.13    70.44     7.79    55.01     3.57     4.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      29   34   -6      -0.44    48.53     3.20    44.86     3.71    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Stoke            30   34  -12       0.12    51.47    -0.41    44.18     3.60   -13.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Hull             30   33   -5       0.30    52.40     8.57    41.11     3.52    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32R    0.02  
Norwich          31   32  -22      -0.69    47.33    -5.18    37.58     2.99   -29.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.99R    0.68  
West_Ham         30   31   -8      -5.48    24.17    -0.11    39.99     3.44   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.90R    0.13  
Swansea          30   29   -6      -8.74    12.67     0.87    39.34     3.66    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.27R    0.41  
West_Brom        30   28  -12      -8.23    14.38    -2.97    38.08     3.54   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.06R    1.40  
Crystal_Palace   30   28  -20       1.00    56.97     2.26    34.21     3.18   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.78R   11.72  
Sunderland       28   25  -18      -6.39    19.57    -7.07    34.33     3.66   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.60R   12.71  
Cardiff          31   25  -32      -1.98    40.42    -4.44    31.61     3.15   -36.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.59R   39.69  
Fulham           31   24  -40      -5.02    25.23   -14.08    32.30     3.31   -42.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.22R   33.23  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 March 2014, Barnsley 0 1 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       36   81  +35      14.51    95.30     8.91    98.43     4.09    40.78    87.81    99.80   100.00    99.85P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         37   76  +31      13.19    92.98    12.89    91.12     3.93    35.06    12.11    93.24   100.00    94.99P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   66  +22       7.79    80.28    10.71    81.20     4.00    26.36     0.05     3.83    97.65    24.81P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   66  +14       6.50    76.09     1.12    80.76     3.93    17.50     0.02     2.06    95.56    26.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           36   62  +15       1.65    56.98    -1.26    77.72     4.22    18.06     0.01     0.97    84.05    23.02P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         37   59  +16      -2.45    39.28    -0.22    74.41     4.00    20.68     0.00     0.08    63.91    17.63P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   57   +9       2.98    62.94     4.06    70.80     3.97    11.17     0.00     0.00    23.23     4.73P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        36   56   +9       0.54    52.83    -0.15    71.62     4.10    11.79     0.00     0.00    29.18     7.13P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         37   54   +6       3.91    66.95     6.73    66.37     3.93     6.02     0.00     0.00     3.60     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       36   50   -1       0.09    50.65    -1.87    63.88     4.16    -0.63     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     37   49   -7       5.20    72.41     4.02    60.25     4.01    -8.57     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         36   48  +10      -8.42    17.48    -0.63    63.60     4.24    12.83     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    36   47   -2      -0.37    48.94     1.34    60.87     4.23    -1.98     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   37   45   +4      -6.06    25.39     3.35    57.62     3.88     4.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   45   +3      -4.47    31.02     4.55    56.59     3.91     1.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    37   44   -4      -1.88    42.29     3.45    54.29     3.86    -7.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Bolton          37   41   -6     -10.48    12.56    -6.77    54.64     4.02    -4.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31R    0.00  
Blackpool       37   41  -20      -4.30    32.04   -11.94    51.08     3.76   -23.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.51R    0.02  
Doncaster       37   40  -21       1.77    59.08    -2.76    48.22     3.63   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.56R    0.18  
Birmingham      37   37   -9     -11.97     8.89    -6.18    49.24     3.99    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.15R    0.11  
Charlton        34   32  -19      -8.10    16.60   -10.07    46.34     4.51   -21.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.24R    2.45  
Millwall        37   32  -31      -5.83    25.07   -11.54    41.43     3.70   -35.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.27R   14.22  
Yeovil          37   31  -22      -4.54    30.44     1.88    40.20     3.70   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.81R   22.13  
Barnsley        36   29  -32      -6.11    23.34    -9.60    37.53     3.76   -40.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.96R   60.90  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 March 2014, Brentford 3 1 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   37   80  +44       5.10    71.27     7.73    98.14     3.82    52.87    67.02    96.23   100.00    97.87P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   79  +30      15.95    96.55     9.70    95.99     4.22    34.81    31.08    88.54   100.00    92.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   38   75  +36      10.11    85.74    16.92    88.73     3.68    40.16     1.86    14.08   100.00    41.37P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       37   69  +24      12.69    90.81    15.86    81.71     4.04    24.47     0.03     0.73    99.77    20.16P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         38   69  +15      11.51    89.03     6.96    81.99     3.75    17.93     0.01     0.42    99.81    24.15P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    37   58   +9      -1.96    41.66    -4.92    73.22     3.97    13.51     0.00     0.00    82.68    20.58P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         38   55   +4      -3.90    34.08    -6.07    66.49     3.81     4.73     0.00     0.00     9.21     2.09P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         38   51   +3      -8.16    18.87    -7.55    63.55     3.84     5.31     0.00     0.00     2.77     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         38   50   +1      -1.81    42.48     1.08    62.51     3.80     3.25     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale       37   50   -8       5.19    71.52     2.05    60.40     3.98   -11.32     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.11P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       36   48   -3      -5.17    28.40    -8.82    62.59     4.25    -1.61     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    34   46   -3       2.61    62.32     1.75    61.55     4.64    -4.23     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.24P    0.10R    0.00  
Bradford        37   45   +3      -0.28    49.38    10.95    55.32     3.92    -0.11     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.09R    0.01  
Gillingham      38   45  -13       1.00    54.77     0.09    53.24     3.58   -17.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.93R    0.16  
Bristol_City    38   43   -5     -10.39    14.03    -6.35    55.09     3.86    -3.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.09R    0.12  
Colchester      37   43   -5      -2.61    39.18     2.46    53.47     3.86    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.79R    0.36  
Coventry        37   42   -1      -1.33    44.62    -4.31    54.61     4.06    -0.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.46R    0.13  
Oldham          38   42  -12      -2.09    41.70    -0.24    51.25     3.65   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.39R    1.38  
Crewe           38   40  -25       0.26    51.96    -4.41    48.42     3.62   -29.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.61R    9.76  
Tranmere        37   39  -21      -4.82    30.21    -9.97    50.54     3.96   -22.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.34R    3.48  
Carlisle        37   38  -22      -1.86    42.49    -4.52    47.07     3.74   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.43R   16.55  
Shrewsbury      38   37  -13      -7.23    21.03    -1.88    47.01     3.67   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.45R   13.47  
Stevenage       37   37  -19      -5.03    29.33    -5.85    46.71     3.80   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.39R   17.69  
Notts_County    38   34  -19     -13.13     7.63   -10.63    44.45     3.79   -19.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.90R   36.88  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 March 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 4 3 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             38   70  +22       8.41    81.48     8.04    83.30     3.82    25.42    49.31    97.43   100.00    98.20P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           38   68  +22       1.94    57.89     1.56    82.12     3.77    26.55    36.55    95.85   100.00    97.34P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         39   67  +25      -0.05    49.47     5.56    79.36     3.45    29.07    13.61    86.84    99.99    91.52P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       38   61   +9       6.78    76.57     5.69    72.08     3.74     9.22     0.30     8.80    92.09    28.58P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        38   61   +4       8.52    82.13     3.01    71.85     3.72     4.00     0.16     6.93    89.26    24.70P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   59  +12       2.16    59.34     4.85    70.31     3.72    12.61     0.06     3.63    83.65    25.95P    0.00     0.00  
York                 38   55   +7       4.24    68.23     7.93    65.76     3.69     6.79     0.00     0.21    39.62     8.76P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             38   55   +1       4.82    70.11     2.83    65.60     3.71     0.70     0.00     0.12    34.63     7.40P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             38   53   +8      -4.64    30.87    -0.30    65.48     3.73    10.17     0.00     0.17    40.26    12.44P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            38   50   +0       0.13    51.21     2.82    60.94     3.76     0.06     0.00     0.01     6.28     1.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool           38   49   +3      -7.11    22.65    -3.16    61.16     3.76     4.82     0.00     0.00     8.22     2.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County       37   48   -3       5.87    74.55     9.61    58.38     3.95    -5.87     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.35P    0.43R    0.03  
Cheltenham           38   48   -6      -3.30    36.61    -5.28    58.04     3.71    -7.25     0.00     0.00     1.20     0.27P    0.39R    0.02  
Morecambe            38   48  -11       0.71    53.86    -4.13    57.10     3.62   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.09P    1.00R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        38   47   -5       1.78    58.63     4.55    57.23     3.72    -5.90     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.13P    0.99R    0.08  
Accrington_Stanley   38   45   -3      -2.81    38.71     2.89    55.20     3.67    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    3.17R    0.34  
Exeter               38   44   -4      -8.09    19.14    -4.23    54.37     3.71    -4.82     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    4.81R    1.05  
Mansfield            38   44  -13       1.93    59.40     1.06    53.34     3.68   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   11.18R    2.73  
Bury                 37   43   -1      -9.75    15.04    -4.28    55.99     4.03    -0.04     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.17P    2.94R    0.47  
Bristol_Rovers       37   43   -6      -3.80    34.13    -1.13    54.81     3.98    -6.63     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    5.60R    1.15  
Wycombe              38   42   -8      -6.59    23.92    -3.71    52.26     3.70    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.22R    3.92  
Portsmouth           38   42  -14     -10.81    12.65   -15.41    52.85     3.77   -14.14     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   14.18R    3.01  
Northampton          38   39  -18      -5.97    25.47    -8.69    49.01     3.68   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.02R   17.89  
Torquay              38   36  -21      -8.14    18.36   -10.07    45.00     3.62   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.04R   69.26  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 March 2014, Barnet 2 0 Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            37   80  +60       4.54    69.91    18.92    98.35     3.71    69.83    99.77   100.00    99.88P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    38   67   +3      16.33    96.22     6.09    78.10     3.79     2.95     0.01    83.37    10.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   66  +29       6.10    75.65    13.35    82.89     4.05    34.17     0.20    98.76    31.43P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         39   61   -2      11.26    89.37     3.81    69.10     3.33    -4.30     0.00     7.05     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          35   60  +17       0.38    51.43    -0.37    78.57     4.29    22.93     0.02    86.25    29.05P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           39   60   +7      -2.64    39.16    -6.95    70.59     3.47     8.56     0.00    15.74     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        38   59  +10       4.08    67.38     5.83    70.49     3.67    10.81     0.00    16.42     3.33P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    38   59   +2      -0.75    46.59   -10.04    71.57     3.73     4.31     0.00    23.24     5.61P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     37   58  +19      -2.61    38.37     3.25    70.78     3.99    19.48     0.00    22.55     5.51P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          37   57  +17       1.78    57.96    10.34    69.46     4.04    17.04     0.00    15.19     3.14P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        38   56   -6      10.43    87.11     4.56    66.05     3.72    -7.37     0.00     1.59     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   34   55  +12       6.29    76.86     8.56    71.33     4.54    11.62     0.00    27.08     5.23P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     37   54   +4       0.39    51.68    -0.19    65.43     3.98     2.45     0.00     1.96     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          38   53   +4       3.02    62.87     7.31    64.20     3.72     4.25     0.00     0.62     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     40   53   -2       0.24    51.54     1.71    60.94     3.15    -2.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          39   51   -1      -9.58    14.96   -12.15    62.31     3.48     1.48     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           37   51   -6       4.52    70.03     1.89    61.57     3.93    -8.99     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Southport        38   42  -16      -2.19    40.98    -2.42    51.61     3.63   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.93R    0.00  
Hereford         39   42  -17      -8.29    18.09   -12.04    51.42     3.45   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.56R    0.00  
Chester          39   40  -22       0.69    54.11     0.87    48.33     3.19   -24.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.55R    0.00  
Aldershot        38   38   +4     -12.60     8.74    -9.10    51.09     3.58     7.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.84R    0.00  
Dartford         38   37  -21      -6.79    22.41    -7.00    46.19     3.63   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.48R    0.00  
Tamworth         38   32  -27      -6.66    22.17    -5.40    39.99     3.43   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.63R    0.00  
Hyde_United      39   10  -68     -18.86     0.35   -20.84    14.07     2.68   -78.87     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10