Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 21 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 March 2014, Man_Utd 0 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          30   66  +33       6.70    81.00     4.53    82.41     3.41    41.47    27.09    61.29    86.09    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        29   62  +41       3.82    69.29     9.52    80.66     3.75    51.49    19.29    44.56    76.62    99.06    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   62  +25       6.95    81.86     1.10    78.66     3.83    31.75     6.62    20.09    46.51    96.73    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   60  +44       1.01    54.53     6.90    83.37     3.90    58.86    47.00    74.03    90.38    99.72   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   53   -1       7.62    83.21    -6.68    66.10     3.69     2.05     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.81    63.91     0.00     0.00  
Everton          28   51  +12       5.42    76.44     1.81    67.13     4.23    15.48     0.00     0.02     0.33     3.13    73.69     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   48  +12      -5.83    21.93    -9.91    65.28     3.84    19.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.74    60.54     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   45   +6       4.11    70.02     7.69    54.98     3.62     4.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        29   43   -3       6.18    78.78     2.91    54.17     3.78    -5.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      29   34   -6      -0.37    48.82     3.14    44.88     3.72    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Stoke            30   34  -12       0.33    52.68    -0.21    44.13     3.61   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27R    0.00  
West_Ham         29   31   -6      -4.98    25.98     0.45    41.02     3.70   -10.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.21R    0.13  
Hull             29   30   -7      -0.42    48.61     7.95    39.20     3.73   -11.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.11R    0.61  
Swansea          29   29   -5      -7.80    15.12     0.91    40.20     3.88    -6.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.68R    0.41  
Norwich          30   29  -24      -1.71    41.70    -6.35    35.96     3.27   -31.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.40R    6.43  
West_Brom        29   28  -10      -7.62    15.65    -2.32    39.53     3.81   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.56R    0.99  
Crystal_Palace   29   28  -19       1.89    61.90     2.56    35.00     3.39   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.60R   11.01  
Sunderland       27   25  -16      -5.77    21.53    -6.24    35.75     3.96   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.84R    9.12  
Cardiff          30   25  -29      -1.71    41.80    -4.53    32.26     3.33   -34.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.72R   36.61  
Fulham           30   24  -35      -5.31    23.95   -13.24    32.72     3.46   -39.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.46R   34.69  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Charlton 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       35   80  +35      14.89    96.07     8.80    99.06     4.36    41.19    93.19    99.92   100.00    99.94P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         36   73  +28      12.89    92.88    11.87    89.41     4.20    31.97     6.76    91.04    99.98    93.17P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           36   63  +17       7.99    81.63     8.51    79.45     4.24    21.13     0.03     4.27    92.04    22.94P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             36   63  +12       5.53    73.35     0.07    78.89     4.17    15.16     0.02     2.67    88.96    25.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           35   59  +14       0.45    51.94    -1.66    76.52     4.45    17.71     0.01     1.62    75.64    22.18P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   57  +14       2.30    60.29     6.01    72.24     4.21    16.29     0.00     0.13    39.74     8.79P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         36   56  +15      -3.43    34.95    -0.21    72.70     4.21    19.54     0.00     0.17    45.77    12.66P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        35   56  +11       1.21    55.57     0.88    73.60     4.32    14.62     0.00     0.18    50.75    13.23P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         36   51   +4       2.71    62.28     5.36    64.13     4.12     3.19     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       35   49   -1       0.58    52.94    -1.70    63.93     4.43    -1.10     0.00     0.00     1.70     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         35   48  +11      -7.48    20.06    -0.27    64.69     4.46    13.44     0.00     0.00     3.48     0.81P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     36   46   -8       4.13    68.53     3.95    58.45     4.27    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   36   45   +6      -5.18    28.32     4.52    59.12     4.13     6.71     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   45   +4      -3.54    34.90     4.91    58.09     4.16     3.12     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    35   44   -3      -1.34    44.37     1.29    59.82     4.43    -2.13     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield    36   44   -3      -1.05    45.81     3.68    55.55     4.11    -6.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Bolton          36   40   -6      -9.88    13.38    -6.52    55.12     4.26    -3.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44R    0.01  
Blackpool       36   38  -21      -5.47    26.91   -12.28    49.63     4.01   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.50R    0.31  
Birmingham      36   37   -8     -11.14    10.22    -5.98    50.62     4.26    -8.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.58R    0.15  
Doncaster       36   37  -22       0.75    54.62    -2.74    46.41     3.87   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.44R    1.82  
Charlton        33   32  -16      -8.04    16.21    -8.96    47.86     4.72   -18.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.34R    1.96  
Millwall        36   32  -30      -5.26    27.10   -11.83    42.31     3.93   -35.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.28R   15.39  
Yeovil          36   30  -22      -4.28    31.38     1.56    40.28     3.94   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.08R   30.15  
Barnsley        35   29  -31      -5.25    26.42    -9.24    39.07     4.02   -38.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.16R   50.21  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Colchester 1 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   36   77  +42       4.27    68.42     6.99    96.71     4.07    51.08    62.49    92.18   100.00    95.76P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       35   76  +28      15.32    96.20     9.25    94.79     4.47    33.44    32.33    80.91   100.00    86.96P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   37   74  +36      10.25    86.86    16.55    89.27     3.95    40.40     5.01    24.51   100.00    48.76P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   69  +16      12.39    90.85     7.29    83.25     3.99    18.80     0.12     1.86    99.88    24.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       36   66  +23      11.31    88.42    15.13    79.66     4.31    22.74     0.05     0.53    98.59    18.48P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    36   58  +10      -0.89    45.87    -4.51    75.02     4.28    15.21     0.00     0.01    89.43    22.78P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         37   52   +3      -4.91    29.84    -6.13    65.02     4.04     3.97     0.00     0.00     4.11     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         37   49   +1      -1.42    44.10     1.08    62.68     4.04     2.96     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         37   48   +2      -9.37    15.53    -7.82    61.97     4.10     4.38     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       35   48   -1      -4.55    30.53    -7.80    63.73     4.47     0.09     0.00     0.00     2.73     0.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       36   47   -9       3.82    66.54     1.34    58.89     4.26   -12.11     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P    0.39R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    33   46   -2       3.71    67.13     2.42    63.03     4.88    -3.04     0.00     0.00     2.50     0.37P    0.05R    0.00  
Bradford        36   45   +4       0.51    53.00    11.16    56.69     4.17     0.88     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.05R    0.01  
Gillingham      37   45  -11       1.72    58.00     0.99    55.10     3.88   -14.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.26R    0.03  
Coventry        36   42   +1      -0.85    46.58    -3.80    55.63     4.26     0.59     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.93R    0.06  
Bristol_City    37   42   -5      -9.69    15.46    -5.81    55.50     4.11    -3.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.83R    0.06  
Colchester      36   42   -5      -2.03    41.67     2.68    53.83     4.09    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    6.76R    0.22  
Oldham          37   39  -13      -3.45    35.39    -0.74    49.52     3.88   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.91R    2.92  
Tranmere        36   39  -20      -3.81    34.11    -9.69    51.68     4.22   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.96R    1.34  
Carlisle        36   38  -19      -1.80    42.57    -3.81    48.36     4.01   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.65R    7.15  
Stevenage       36   37  -18      -3.97    33.10    -5.54    47.90     4.03   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.05R    7.41  
Crewe           37   37  -27      -0.70    47.77    -5.30    46.32     3.84   -31.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.79R   17.92  
Shrewsbury      37   34  -14      -8.53    16.55    -2.45    45.33     3.92   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.20R   18.44  
Notts_County    37   31  -22     -13.34     6.94   -11.50    42.99     4.04   -22.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.15R   44.43  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 21 March 2014, Bristol_Rovers 0 0 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             37   67  +20       7.42    78.68     6.93    81.75     4.06    23.53    38.00    91.04   100.00    93.62P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         38   66  +25       0.56    52.30     5.80    80.27     3.71    29.89    27.54    86.88    99.99    91.65P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           37   65  +21       0.90    53.48     1.28    80.94     4.03    26.18    32.06    88.52    99.97    92.57P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       37   61  +12       7.06    77.84     7.11    73.63     4.01    12.47     1.42    17.48    95.81    36.44P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        37   61   +5       9.25    83.99     3.09    72.77     3.94     4.33     0.85    11.52    92.45    28.74P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   59  +12       2.21    59.51     4.98    70.31     3.73    12.60     0.11     3.95    84.01    25.77P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             37   54   +1       5.12    71.77     2.78    65.91     3.97     0.63     0.00     0.30    39.34     8.27P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             38   53   +8      -4.85    30.32    -0.54    65.44     3.75    10.13     0.00     0.20    40.42    12.14P    0.00     0.00  
York                 37   52   +6       3.05    63.57     7.64    63.77     3.91     5.31     0.00     0.10    22.85     4.83P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           38   49   +3      -7.30    22.02    -3.43    61.24     3.75     4.92     0.00     0.00     8.75     2.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   49   +0       0.34    52.17     2.62    60.99     4.02    -0.39     0.00     0.00     7.82     1.62P    0.09R    0.01  
Cheltenham           37   48   -5      -2.31    40.55    -4.89    59.51     3.95    -6.09     0.00     0.00     3.50     0.81P    0.29R    0.04  
Morecambe            37   47  -11       1.22    56.13    -3.97    57.66     3.90   -13.48     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.19P    1.46R    0.21  
Newport_County       36   45   -4       4.56    70.01     9.29    56.42     4.18    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.17P    3.13R    0.72  
Accrington_Stanley   37   44   -3      -2.32    40.38     3.12    55.68     3.95    -3.83     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.13P    3.79R    0.78  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   44   -6       0.68    53.84     4.04    55.50     3.95    -6.98     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P    4.44R    0.97  
Bristol_Rovers       37   43   -6      -3.70    34.49    -1.03    54.72     3.95    -6.73     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    6.52R    1.78  
Mansfield            37   43  -13       2.13    60.26     1.06    53.20     3.89   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   14.72R    4.84  
Bury                 36   42   -1      -9.34    15.74    -4.20    56.71     4.29     0.47     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.39P    2.98R    0.69  
Wycombe              37   42   -6      -5.94    26.05    -2.66    53.56     3.96    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   11.01R    3.64  
Portsmouth           37   42  -13      -9.65    15.10   -14.70    54.55     4.01   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    8.16R    2.24  
Exeter               37   41   -7      -8.79    17.12    -5.89    52.48     3.95    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   15.85R    5.55  
Northampton          37   38  -18      -5.67    26.54    -8.70    49.13     3.94   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.04R   25.19  
Torquay              37   36  -20      -7.32    20.88    -9.72    46.76     3.92   -22.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.50R   53.35  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Aldershot 0 0 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            36   77  +57       4.18    68.55    18.25    97.86     3.84    68.90    99.70   100.00    99.82P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    38   67   +3      16.29    96.35     6.09    78.07     3.80     2.90     0.01    82.85    11.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   66  +29       6.40    76.48    13.77    82.80     4.06    34.05     0.27    98.60    31.47P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         38   61   -1      12.09    91.09     4.09    70.44     3.61    -3.35     0.00    14.65     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    37   58   +2       0.26    51.12    -9.09    72.75     3.97     5.58     0.00    35.15     8.97P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   57  +19      -1.90    41.19     3.68    71.89     4.22    20.65     0.00    32.84     8.64P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          37   57  +17       1.68    57.16    10.24    69.54     4.04    17.18     0.00    15.65     3.30P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   57  +16      -0.91    45.49    -0.84    76.93     4.51    21.87     0.02    75.18    25.04P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           38   57   +5      -3.07    37.21    -7.23    69.41     3.76     7.18     0.00    11.03     3.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        37   56   +8       3.27    64.52     5.03    69.22     3.91     9.32     0.00    10.61     2.08P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        37   55   -6      10.63    88.06     4.31    65.68     3.90    -8.58     0.00     1.67     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     39   53   +0       0.79    54.14     2.43    61.99     3.41    -0.89     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   33   52  +11       5.01    72.60     8.11    69.89     4.78    10.84     0.00    18.92     3.85P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          37   52   +4       3.24    64.19     7.17    63.91     3.90     3.18     0.00     0.78     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     36   51   +3      -0.59    47.37    -0.13    64.61     4.20     2.66     0.00     1.68     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           37   51   -6       4.51    69.94     1.90    61.53     3.90    -9.07     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          38   50   -1      -8.75    16.68   -11.48    63.36     3.73     2.48     0.00     0.22     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         38   42  -15      -8.10    18.42   -11.80    52.38     3.67   -15.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.69R    0.00  
Southport        37   41  -16      -2.00    41.84    -2.81    51.24     3.83   -19.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.99R    0.00  
Chester          38   40  -19       0.26    52.42     0.64    48.77     3.32   -23.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.23R    0.00  
Aldershot        37   38   +5     -11.84     9.93    -9.03    52.36     3.85     8.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.51R    0.00  
Dartford         37   34  -23      -7.86    18.28    -7.93    44.55     3.88   -25.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.33R    0.00  
Tamworth         37   32  -26      -5.98    23.93    -5.60    40.67     3.62   -32.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.24R    0.00  
Hyde_United      38   10  -66     -18.04     0.48   -19.78    15.41     3.02   -76.93     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10