Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 20 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 March 2014, Man_Utd 0 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          30   66  +33       6.69    81.04     4.55    82.44     3.42    41.50    27.41    61.48    86.24    99.82   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        29   62  +41       4.07    69.98     9.96    80.64     3.76    51.45    19.05    44.33    76.13    99.05    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   62  +25       6.74    81.39     0.79    78.73     3.82    31.86     6.83    20.52    47.16    96.76    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   60  +44       1.11    55.20     7.11    83.33     3.91    58.77    46.71    73.64    90.04    99.70   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   53   -1       7.65    83.25    -6.62    66.08     3.68     2.02     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.81    63.79     0.00     0.00  
Everton          28   51  +12       5.32    76.03     1.68    67.20     4.20    15.57     0.00     0.04     0.37     3.18    74.38     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   48  +12      -5.84    22.03    -9.94    65.26     3.79    19.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.67    59.98     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   45   +6       4.12    70.23     7.70    54.99     3.60     4.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        29   43   -3       6.20    79.04     2.92    54.11     3.79    -5.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      29   34   -6      -0.40    48.72     3.16    44.86     3.72    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Stoke            30   34  -12       0.24    52.34    -0.34    44.16     3.60   -13.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26R    0.00  
West_Ham         29   31   -6      -5.05    25.62     0.31    41.05     3.72   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.19R    0.13  
Hull             29   30   -7      -0.57    48.06     7.64    39.25     3.74   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.76R    0.63  
Swansea          29   29   -5      -7.71    15.66     1.05    40.17     3.85    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.59R    0.41  
Norwich          30   29  -24      -1.62    42.31    -6.15    35.92     3.29   -31.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.97R    6.64  
West_Brom        29   28  -10      -7.62    15.77    -2.40    39.53     3.85   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.68R    1.01  
Crystal_Palace   29   28  -19       1.92    62.08     2.52    35.02     3.40   -27.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.24R   10.99  
Sunderland       27   25  -16      -5.72    21.82    -6.19    35.74     3.91   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.38R    8.88  
Cardiff          30   25  -29      -1.64    42.37    -4.40    32.24     3.36   -34.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.08R   36.91  
Fulham           30   24  -35      -5.36    24.23   -13.32    32.71     3.42   -39.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.70R   34.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Charlton 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       35   80  +35      14.97    96.14     8.90    99.07     4.34    41.21    93.22    99.90   100.00    99.93P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         36   73  +28      12.72    92.68    11.60    89.44     4.18    32.00     6.75    91.36    99.99    93.52P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           36   63  +17       8.17    81.72     8.80    79.42     4.25    21.07     0.01     4.13    91.92    22.79P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             36   63  +12       5.62    73.58     0.22    78.85     4.17    15.13     0.02     2.51    88.95    25.07P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           35   59  +14       0.68    52.71    -1.34    76.40     4.47    17.54     0.00     1.65    74.90    21.65P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   57  +14       2.39    60.54     6.12    72.21     4.20    16.25     0.00     0.09    39.83     9.00P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         36   56  +15      -3.47    35.29    -0.33    72.73     4.22    19.60     0.00     0.17    46.66    13.23P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        35   56  +11       1.35    56.18     1.09    73.54     4.32    14.56     0.00     0.19    50.60    13.24P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         36   51   +4       2.76    62.54     5.50    64.10     4.13     3.17     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       35   49   -1       0.40    52.25    -1.91    63.98     4.42    -1.03     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         35   48  +11      -7.56    19.82    -0.40    64.69     4.46    13.45     0.00     0.00     3.34     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     36   46   -8       4.11    68.33     3.88    58.44     4.24    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   36   45   +6      -5.27    27.89     4.36    59.17     4.12     6.78     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   45   +4      -3.53    34.89     4.90    58.08     4.15     3.09     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    35   44   -3      -1.50    43.48     1.02    59.84     4.46    -2.07     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Huddersfield    36   44   -3      -0.96    46.20     3.84    55.56     4.11    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Bolton          36   40   -6      -9.97    13.06    -6.70    55.19     4.28    -3.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44R    0.01  
Blackpool       36   38  -21      -5.52    26.69   -12.29    49.66     4.02   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.37R    0.28  
Birmingham      36   37   -8     -11.08    10.52    -5.95    50.59     4.27    -8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.68R    0.14  
Doncaster       36   37  -22       0.47    53.24    -3.07    46.46     3.89   -28.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.30R    1.78  
Charlton        33   32  -16      -8.12    16.10    -9.18    47.90     4.71   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.07R    1.99  
Millwall        36   32  -30      -5.15    27.44   -11.73    42.30     3.89   -35.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.52R   15.31  
Yeovil          36   30  -22      -4.17    31.77     1.74    40.25     3.93   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.24R   29.93  
Barnsley        35   29  -31      -5.14    26.89    -9.05    39.04     4.04   -38.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.20R   50.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Colchester 1 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   36   77  +42       4.23    67.96     6.92    96.73     4.10    51.13    62.40    92.11   100.00    95.60P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       35   76  +28      15.13    95.94     8.94    94.82     4.46    33.54    32.44    81.21   100.00    87.29P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   37   74  +36      10.34    87.19    16.71    89.24     3.96    40.38     5.01    24.42   100.00    48.74P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   69  +16      12.37    90.85     7.25    83.24     4.01    18.80     0.12     1.77    99.84    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       36   66  +23      11.27    88.23    15.07    79.63     4.27    22.69     0.04     0.48    98.57    18.37P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    36   58  +10      -0.98    45.59    -4.60    75.03     4.27    15.20     0.00     0.02    89.39    22.82P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         37   52   +3      -4.86    30.04    -6.08    64.96     4.04     3.89     0.00     0.00     3.98     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         37   49   +1      -1.21    45.23     1.41    62.55     4.04     2.80     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon         37   48   +2      -9.37    15.67    -7.83    61.95     4.06     4.37     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       35   48   -1      -4.68    29.89    -7.96    63.79     4.49     0.18     0.00     0.00     2.83     0.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       36   47   -9       3.97    67.36     1.47    58.93     4.26   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.05P    0.37R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    33   46   -2       3.54    66.53     2.15    63.11     4.91    -2.96     0.00     0.00     2.75     0.42P    0.06R    0.00  
Bradford        36   45   +4       0.55    53.16    11.12    56.70     4.17     0.92     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    1.03R    0.00  
Gillingham      37   45  -11       1.58    57.44     0.79    55.16     3.86   -14.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.99R    0.02  
Coventry        36   42   +1      -0.80    46.76    -3.66    55.58     4.26     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.85R    0.05  
Bristol_City    37   42   -5      -9.68    15.39    -5.80    55.52     4.13    -3.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.82R    0.08  
Colchester      36   42   -5      -2.24    40.80     2.35    53.87     4.11    -7.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.75R    0.19  
Oldham          37   39  -13      -3.36    35.79    -0.63    49.47     3.91   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.48R    3.13  
Tranmere        36   39  -20      -3.69    34.54    -9.46    51.66     4.19   -21.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.18R    1.24  
Carlisle        36   38  -19      -1.86    42.42    -3.86    48.41     3.99   -24.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.11R    6.89  
Stevenage       36   37  -18      -4.03    32.68    -5.55    47.91     4.03   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.84R    7.62  
Crewe           37   37  -27      -0.63    48.13    -5.11    46.32     3.83   -31.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.70R   17.29  
Shrewsbury      37   34  -14      -8.51    16.70    -2.37    45.34     3.93   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R   18.09  
Notts_County    37   31  -22     -13.18     7.01   -11.26    42.91     4.02   -22.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.72R   45.40  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 March 2014, Newport_County 1 2 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             37   67  +20       7.56    79.01     7.13    81.70     4.09    23.47    38.20    90.95    99.99    93.57P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         38   66  +25       0.53    51.91     5.79    80.26     3.71    29.83    27.05    87.38    99.99    91.89P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           37   65  +21       0.90    53.47     1.39    80.91     4.04    26.14    32.10    88.57    99.98    92.51P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       37   61  +12       6.92    77.24     6.95    73.65     4.01    12.50     1.67    17.94    95.84    36.87P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        37   61   +5       9.30    84.38     3.22    72.77     3.96     4.32     0.92    11.95    92.13    28.77P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   56  +11       0.85    53.89     4.35    68.74     3.97    11.69     0.05     2.25    71.13    20.83P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             37   54   +1       5.01    71.54     2.62    65.93     3.97     0.66     0.00     0.31    39.34     8.40P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             37   52   +8      -4.24    32.16    -0.26    65.91     4.00    10.30     0.00     0.50    45.67    14.00P    0.00     0.00  
York                 37   52   +6       3.07    63.89     7.66    63.80     3.93     5.34     0.00     0.11    23.16     4.97P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           37   49   +4      -6.22    25.24    -2.73    62.48     4.01     5.77     0.00     0.02    16.75     4.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   49   +0       0.34    51.87     2.67    60.93     4.01    -0.43     0.00     0.01     7.36     1.53P    0.07R    0.00  
Cheltenham           37   48   -5      -2.26    40.67    -4.84    59.50     3.96    -6.08     0.00     0.01     3.53     0.85P    0.25R    0.03  
Morecambe            37   47  -11       1.14    55.81    -4.08    57.68     3.91   -13.45     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.19P    1.59R    0.24  
Newport_County       36   45   -4       4.62    70.04     9.34    56.42     4.17    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.15P    3.19R    0.73  
Accrington_Stanley   37   44   -3      -2.33    40.30     3.13    55.69     3.94    -3.82     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.12P    3.71R    0.75  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   44   -6       0.55    53.25     3.88    55.50     3.95    -6.99     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    4.34R    0.98  
Mansfield            37   43  -13       1.85    59.04     0.59    53.25     3.90   -15.96     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   14.60R    4.84  
Bury                 36   42   -1      -9.24    16.17    -4.06    56.71     4.28     0.48     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.38P    2.94R    0.76  
Wycombe              37   42   -6      -6.15    25.33    -2.95    53.61     3.96    -6.97     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   10.60R    3.41  
Bristol_Rovers       36   42   -6      -3.45    35.03    -1.01    54.95     4.18    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P    6.77R    1.86  
Portsmouth           37   42  -13      -9.68    15.05   -14.71    54.54     4.05   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    8.66R    2.37  
Exeter               37   41   -7      -8.58    17.33    -5.64    52.51     3.94    -8.16     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   15.64R    5.35  
Northampton          37   38  -18      -5.80    26.06    -8.87    49.18     3.95   -19.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.61R   24.65  
Torquay              37   36  -20      -7.20    21.22    -9.57    46.71     3.92   -22.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.03R   54.04  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Aldershot 0 0 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            36   77  +57       4.31    69.20    18.42    97.87     3.88    68.89    99.68   100.00    99.83P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    38   67   +3      16.26    96.20     6.08    78.08     3.78     2.95     0.01    82.94    11.17P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   66  +29       6.27    76.29    13.60    82.83     4.05    34.07     0.29    98.65    32.01P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         38   61   -1      11.89    90.61     3.79    70.49     3.60    -3.24     0.00    15.03     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    37   58   +2       0.30    51.38    -9.04    72.74     3.98     5.58     0.00    35.17     8.90P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   57  +19      -1.91    41.48     3.69    71.90     4.21    20.63     0.00    32.77     8.51P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          37   57  +17       1.68    57.13    10.21    69.55     4.02    17.18     0.00    15.73     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   57  +16      -0.64    46.76    -0.48    76.89     4.54    21.77     0.01    74.61    24.54P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           38   57   +5      -3.28    36.04    -7.51    69.45     3.74     7.27     0.00    11.06     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        37   56   +8       3.36    64.61     5.18    69.20     3.91     9.29     0.00    10.59     2.11P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        37   55   -6      10.57    88.02     4.20    65.63     3.89    -8.60     0.00     1.59     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     39   53   +0       0.57    52.89     2.08    62.04     3.42    -0.85     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   33   52  +11       4.96    72.31     8.12    69.89     4.77    10.86     0.00    18.98     3.81P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          37   52   +4       3.40    64.57     7.39    63.85     3.92     3.08     0.00     0.76     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     36   51   +3      -0.55    48.06    -0.11    64.58     4.21     2.64     0.00     1.68     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           37   51   -6       4.53    70.14     1.90    61.51     3.90    -9.08     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          38   50   -1      -8.83    16.42   -11.56    63.37     3.73     2.49     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         38   42  -15      -7.94    18.69   -11.52    52.39     3.64   -15.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.67R    0.00  
Southport        37   41  -16      -2.03    41.60    -2.80    51.20     3.80   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.22R    0.00  
Chester          38   40  -19       0.05    51.17     0.36    48.78     3.33   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.12R    0.00  
Aldershot        37   38   +5     -11.73    10.21    -8.83    52.38     3.81     8.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.41R    0.00  
Dartford         37   34  -23      -7.82    18.41    -7.89    44.56     3.89   -25.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.54R    0.00  
Tamworth         37   32  -26      -5.94    24.63    -5.54    40.66     3.63   -32.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.04R    0.00  
Hyde_United      38   10  -66     -18.05     0.49   -19.74    15.40     3.02   -76.93     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10