Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 19 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 March 2014, Man_Utd 0 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          30   66  +33       6.60    80.75     4.36    82.48     3.41    41.59    27.22    61.89    86.67    99.80   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        29   62  +41       4.07    70.36     9.92    80.63     3.75    51.42    18.91    43.94    76.05    99.00    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   62  +25       6.73    81.27     0.75    78.70     3.82    31.83     6.72    20.37    46.73    96.83    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   60  +44       0.96    54.33     6.86    83.38     3.90    58.87    47.14    73.77    90.17    99.71   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   53   -1       7.54    82.94    -6.75    66.14     3.68     2.09     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.89    64.44     0.00     0.00  
Everton          28   51  +12       5.42    76.38     1.81    67.15     4.19    15.51     0.00     0.03     0.31     3.08    73.84     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   48  +12      -5.81    21.97    -9.84    65.23     3.80    19.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.69    59.83     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   45   +6       4.20    70.38     7.81    54.97     3.61     4.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        29   43   -3       6.14    79.04     2.88    54.18     3.78    -5.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      29   34   -6      -0.36    48.94     3.21    44.89     3.73    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Stoke            30   34  -12       0.32    52.52    -0.25    44.11     3.60   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
West_Ham         29   31   -6      -4.98    26.01     0.41    41.00     3.71   -10.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.21R    0.13  
Hull             29   30   -7      -0.62    47.59     7.59    39.26     3.75   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.13R    0.60  
Swansea          29   29   -5      -7.74    15.50     1.02    40.15     3.84    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.38R    0.37  
Norwich          30   29  -24      -1.75    41.62    -6.44    35.97     3.30   -31.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.96R    6.63  
West_Brom        29   28  -10      -7.60    15.69    -2.38    39.53     3.80   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.44R    0.92  
Crystal_Palace   29   28  -19       1.99    62.29     2.71    35.01     3.40   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.63R   10.91  
Sunderland       27   25  -16      -5.73    21.66    -6.22    35.75     3.95   -24.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.82R    8.95  
Cardiff          30   25  -29      -1.67    42.25    -4.40    32.21     3.34   -35.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.30R   37.44  
Fulham           30   24  -35      -5.18    24.58   -13.03    32.70     3.45   -39.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.72R   34.04  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Charlton 1 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       35   80  +35      14.99    96.24     8.99    99.05     4.34    41.15    93.15    99.92   100.00    99.95P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         36   73  +28      12.83    92.54    11.77    89.43     4.21    31.97     6.79    91.29    99.98    93.50P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           36   63  +17       8.32    82.25     9.00    79.36     4.26    21.01     0.02     4.11    91.69    22.57P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             36   63  +12       5.91    74.62     0.57    78.80     4.20    15.05     0.03     2.58    88.33    24.51P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           35   59  +14       0.37    51.53    -1.81    76.50     4.47    17.71     0.01     1.65    75.67    22.63P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   57  +14       2.32    60.43     6.07    72.25     4.19    16.30     0.00     0.09    40.20     8.95P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         36   56  +15      -3.56    34.91    -0.42    72.74     4.23    19.61     0.00     0.19    46.51    13.48P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        35   56  +11       1.30    56.05     1.02    73.53     4.30    14.54     0.00     0.15    50.28    12.85P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         36   51   +4       2.43    61.15     4.96    64.22     4.14     3.33     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       35   49   -1       0.35    51.93    -1.98    63.97     4.42    -1.00     0.00     0.00     1.86     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         35   48  +11      -7.36    20.05    -0.10    64.64     4.45    13.36     0.00     0.00     3.40     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     36   46   -8       4.05    68.26     3.76    58.45     4.26    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   36   45   +6      -5.27    27.89     4.41    59.15     4.09     6.77     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   45   +4      -3.51    34.98     4.93    58.08     4.14     3.09     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    35   44   -3      -1.54    43.59     1.00    59.80     4.44    -2.13     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield    36   44   -3      -1.19    45.06     3.46    55.61     4.11    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Bolton          36   40   -6     -10.02    13.20    -6.71    55.15     4.27    -3.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41R    0.01  
Blackpool       36   38  -21      -5.37    27.36   -12.12    49.65     4.01   -24.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.31R    0.24  
Birmingham      36   37   -8     -11.07    10.37    -5.87    50.58     4.25    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.52R    0.16  
Doncaster       36   37  -22       0.52    53.91    -3.00    46.46     3.90   -28.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.21R    1.99  
Charlton        33   32  -16      -7.94    16.80    -8.89    47.85     4.69   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.33R    1.94  
Millwall        36   32  -30      -5.10    27.46   -11.65    42.30     3.90   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.50R   15.49  
Yeovil          36   30  -22      -4.13    32.08     1.81    40.23     3.91   -27.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.51R   30.10  
Barnsley        35   29  -31      -5.15    26.96    -9.18    39.09     4.03   -38.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.07R   50.07  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Colchester 1 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   36   77  +42       4.57    69.34     7.42    96.65     4.07    51.00    62.07    91.95   100.00    95.50P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       35   76  +28      15.31    95.97     9.22    94.78     4.46    33.44    32.53    80.76   100.00    86.65P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   37   74  +36      10.22    86.55    16.52    89.28     3.95    40.44     5.26    25.16   100.00    49.28P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   69  +16      12.16    90.82     6.99    83.28     3.98    18.85     0.11     1.69    99.85    24.94P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       36   66  +23      11.32    88.39    15.14    79.66     4.29    22.71     0.03     0.44    98.56    18.27P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    36   58  +10      -0.95    45.81    -4.56    75.03     4.26    15.20     0.00     0.00    89.21    22.74P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         37   52   +3      -4.96    29.77    -6.22    65.02     4.05     4.00     0.00     0.00     4.10     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         37   49   +1      -1.42    44.05     1.16    62.63     4.05     2.90     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         37   48   +2      -9.22    16.07    -7.62    61.94     4.09     4.33     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       35   48   -1      -4.62    30.19    -7.88    63.73     4.44     0.12     0.00     0.00     2.64     0.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       36   47   -9       3.86    66.96     1.36    58.90     4.26   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    0.32R    0.00  
Crawley_Town    33   46   -2       3.55    66.54     2.21    63.04     4.90    -3.04     0.00     0.00     2.82     0.46P    0.08R    0.00  
Bradford        36   45   +4       0.61    53.24    11.26    56.64     4.15     0.83     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.06R    0.00  
Gillingham      37   45  -11       1.54    57.35     0.61    55.17     3.90   -14.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.11R    0.02  
Coventry        36   42   +1      -0.76    47.02    -3.57    55.61     4.28     0.57     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P    2.89R    0.07  
Bristol_City    37   42   -5      -9.77    15.53    -5.93    55.52     4.12    -3.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.91R    0.05  
Colchester      36   42   -5      -2.13    41.19     2.51    53.87     4.10    -7.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    6.78R    0.18  
Oldham          37   39  -13      -3.43    35.90    -0.74    49.53     3.90   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.94R    2.95  
Tranmere        36   39  -20      -3.76    34.30    -9.61    51.71     4.23   -21.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   19.98R    1.26  
Carlisle        36   38  -19      -1.71    43.20    -3.64    48.38     4.00   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.69R    7.11  
Stevenage       36   37  -18      -3.93    33.50    -5.48    47.90     4.05   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.92R    7.72  
Crewe           37   37  -27      -0.68    48.06    -5.28    46.34     3.85   -31.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.47R   17.40  
Shrewsbury      37   34  -14      -8.26    17.29    -2.07    45.27     3.93   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.63R   18.81  
Notts_County    37   31  -22     -13.55     6.62   -11.81    42.99     4.02   -22.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.19R   44.41  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 March 2014, Newport_County 1 2 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Rochdale             37   67  +20       7.38    78.54     6.85    81.76     4.08    23.53    38.24    91.08    99.99    93.64P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         38   66  +25       0.46    51.68     5.70    80.31     3.73    29.91    27.51    87.44    99.99    91.86P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           37   65  +21       0.93    53.73     1.44    80.91     4.01    26.15    31.70    88.83    99.97    92.64P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       37   61  +12       7.01    77.80     7.09    73.61     4.02    12.44     1.64    17.47    95.68    36.22P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        37   61   +5       9.36    84.59     3.28    72.77     3.96     4.33     0.84    12.02    92.10    29.08P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   56  +11       1.01    54.62     4.54    68.69     3.97    11.64     0.06     2.28    70.75    20.40P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             37   54   +1       5.11    71.59     2.76    65.91     3.95     0.65     0.00     0.25    39.44     8.51P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             37   52   +8      -4.38    31.96    -0.37    65.90     3.99    10.27     0.00     0.49    45.30    13.97P    0.00     0.00  
York                 37   52   +6       2.84    62.83     7.45    63.83     3.92     5.38     0.00     0.11    23.50     5.19P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           37   49   +4      -6.14    25.80    -2.66    62.50     4.02     5.78     0.00     0.03    16.43     4.91P    0.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            37   49   +0       0.33    52.06     2.65    60.98     4.01    -0.42     0.00     0.01     7.65     1.53P    0.09R    0.01  
Cheltenham           37   48   -5      -2.35    40.21    -4.93    59.52     3.97    -6.04     0.00     0.00     3.92     0.90P    0.27R    0.03  
Morecambe            37   47  -11       1.20    55.93    -4.03    57.66     3.89   -13.49     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.19P    1.51R    0.26  
Newport_County       36   45   -4       4.53    69.85     9.22    56.43     4.17    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.15P    3.08R    0.70  
Accrington_Stanley   37   44   -3      -2.44    39.92     2.94    55.72     3.97    -3.78     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.15P    3.74R    0.77  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   44   -6       0.60    53.45     3.96    55.50     3.96    -7.01     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.06P    4.43R    0.92  
Mansfield            37   43  -13       2.11    59.72     0.99    53.20     3.92   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   15.12R    5.01  
Bury                 36   42   -1      -9.14    16.05    -3.96    56.70     4.30     0.45     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.40P    2.97R    0.66  
Wycombe              37   42   -6      -6.26    24.86    -3.11    53.65     3.95    -6.93     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   10.43R    3.49  
Bristol_Rovers       36   42   -6      -3.54    35.06    -1.14    54.95     4.20    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.09P    6.93R    1.99  
Portsmouth           37   42  -13      -9.49    15.54   -14.46    54.49     4.03   -12.74     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.06P    8.52R    2.36  
Exeter               37   41   -7      -8.67    17.43    -5.74    52.47     3.95    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   16.05R    5.45  
Northampton          37   38  -18      -5.76    26.13    -8.81    49.19     3.96   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.30R   24.60  
Torquay              37   36  -20      -7.28    20.82    -9.67    46.75     3.92   -22.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.55R   53.76  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 March 2014, Aldershot 0 0 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            36   77  +57       4.39    69.41    18.65    97.86     3.85    68.88    99.67   100.00    99.81P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    38   67   +3      16.15    96.13     5.85    78.09     3.79     2.95     0.01    83.06    10.99P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   66  +29       6.00    75.00    13.19    82.89     4.05    34.17     0.29    98.76    31.94P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         38   61   -1      12.18    91.31     4.21    70.46     3.62    -3.29     0.00    14.67     1.98P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    37   58   +2       0.26    51.06    -9.12    72.73     3.98     5.57     0.00    35.19     8.65P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   57  +19      -1.93    41.30     3.66    71.86     4.21    20.60     0.00    32.30     8.30P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          37   57  +17       1.82    57.88    10.44    69.50     4.05    17.12     0.00    15.76     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   57  +16      -0.77    46.28    -0.68    76.95     4.52    21.88     0.03    75.39    25.53P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           38   57   +5      -3.20    36.20    -7.36    69.45     3.72     7.26     0.00    11.00     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        37   56   +8       3.24    64.39     5.00    69.19     3.90     9.28     0.00    10.55     2.10P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        37   55   -6      10.54    87.48     4.18    65.66     3.92    -8.58     0.00     1.71     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     39   53   +0       0.61    53.23     2.16    61.98     3.41    -0.89     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   33   52  +11       5.06    72.63     8.21    69.84     4.77    10.79     0.00    18.82     3.66P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          37   52   +4       3.17    63.55     7.05    63.93     3.92     3.15     0.00     0.84     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     36   51   +3      -0.58    47.42    -0.13    64.60     4.20     2.67     0.00     1.59     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           37   51   -6       4.40    69.54     1.73    61.54     3.91    -9.04     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          38   50   -1      -8.74    16.68   -11.45    63.36     3.73     2.49     0.00     0.20     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         38   42  -15      -7.90    18.95   -11.46    52.36     3.66   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.70R    0.00  
Southport        37   41  -16      -2.10    41.19    -2.92    51.25     3.79   -19.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.79R    0.00  
Chester          38   40  -19       0.47    53.05     0.96    48.72     3.32   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.31R    0.00  
Aldershot        37   38   +5     -12.05     9.52    -9.36    52.45     3.82     8.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.17R    0.00  
Dartford         37   34  -23      -7.77    18.58    -7.78    44.51     3.89   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.78R    0.00  
Tamworth         37   32  -26      -5.80    24.87    -5.24    40.67     3.61   -32.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.25R    0.00  
Hyde_United      38   10  -66     -18.10     0.48   -19.81    15.42     3.02   -76.90     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10