Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 16 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 March 2014, Man_Utd 0 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          30   66  +33       6.61    80.84     4.39    82.50     3.42    41.58    27.47    62.12    86.31    99.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        29   62  +41       3.93    69.52     9.72    80.67     3.73    51.49    18.92    44.32    76.68    99.07    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   62  +25       6.93    82.18     1.08    78.67     3.81    31.77     6.36    19.75    46.36    96.71    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   60  +44       1.01    54.52     6.92    83.41     3.91    58.94    47.25    73.79    90.29    99.70   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   53   -1       7.59    82.94    -6.73    66.13     3.70     2.08     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.91    64.29     0.00     0.00  
Everton          28   51  +12       5.34    76.14     1.69    67.16     4.19    15.52     0.00     0.02     0.29     3.15    74.04     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   48  +12      -5.70    22.48    -9.71    65.23     3.82    19.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.62    59.87     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   45   +6       4.14    70.07     7.69    54.98     3.61     4.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        29   43   -3       6.22    79.13     2.98    54.15     3.78    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa      29   34   -6      -0.37    49.00     3.24    44.87     3.74    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Stoke            30   34  -12       0.21    51.93    -0.36    44.12     3.61   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27R    0.00  
West_Ham         29   31   -6      -4.99    26.06     0.44    41.02     3.68   -10.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.03R    0.14  
Hull             29   30   -7      -0.60    47.89     7.66    39.27     3.74   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.88R    0.53  
Swansea          29   29   -5      -7.80    15.09     0.97    40.17     3.84    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.58R    0.45  
Norwich          30   29  -24      -1.72    41.77    -6.35    35.93     3.30   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.75R    6.60  
West_Brom        29   28  -10      -7.57    15.92    -2.32    39.54     3.81   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.41R    0.95  
Crystal_Palace   29   28  -19       2.01    62.46     2.66    34.99     3.41   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.81R   11.07  
Sunderland       27   25  -16      -5.71    21.73    -6.14    35.69     3.93   -24.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.84R    9.34  
Cardiff          30   25  -29      -1.75    41.88    -4.62    32.24     3.34   -34.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.77R   36.64  
Fulham           30   24  -35      -5.26    24.26   -13.21    32.71     3.43   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.47R   34.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 March 2014, Bolton 0 2 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       35   80  +35      14.93    96.13     8.89    99.02     4.34    41.11    93.16    99.85   100.00    99.88P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         36   73  +28      13.03    93.23    12.02    89.38     4.18    31.88     6.72    87.50    99.98    90.66P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           36   63  +17       8.12    81.63     8.67    79.43     4.25    21.11     0.01     3.60    91.07    21.62P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             35   63  +15       5.95    75.35     1.78    80.60     4.40    18.64     0.09     5.61    93.02    29.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           34   58  +14       1.31    55.80    -0.86    77.91     4.61    19.26     0.03     3.08    81.93    25.19P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   57  +14       2.33    60.40     6.04    72.24     4.18    16.30     0.00     0.08    37.25     8.06P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         36   56  +15      -3.58    34.64    -0.47    72.77     4.23    19.66     0.00     0.14    43.27    11.83P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        35   56  +11       1.45    56.63     1.21    73.55     4.33    14.56     0.00     0.14    47.17    12.10P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         36   51   +4       2.55    61.55     5.14    64.18     4.13     3.29     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       35   49   -1       0.51    52.76    -1.74    63.92     4.42    -1.10     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         35   48  +11      -7.54    19.80    -0.37    64.71     4.47    13.47     0.00     0.00     3.02     0.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     35   46   -7       4.88    71.63     4.08    59.70     4.47    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   36   45   +6      -5.18    28.12     4.53    59.14     4.11     6.74     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United    35   44   -3      -1.43    44.29     1.16    59.78     4.47    -2.15     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield    36   44   -3      -0.99    46.16     3.77    55.55     4.11    -6.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   42   +1      -4.17    32.10     3.39    56.06     4.36    -0.41     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.12R    0.00  
Bolton          36   40   -6     -10.29    12.53    -7.16    55.29     4.28    -3.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39R    0.01  
Blackpool       36   38  -21      -5.39    27.26   -12.18    49.60     3.99   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.51R    0.23  
Birmingham      36   37   -8     -10.99    10.82    -5.79    50.50     4.24    -8.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.03R    0.13  
Doncaster       36   37  -22       0.64    54.12    -2.82    46.44     3.90   -28.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.83R    1.58  
Millwall        36   32  -30      -4.98    28.08   -11.49    42.23     3.90   -35.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.52R   13.76  
Charlton        32   29  -17      -9.27    12.08    -9.41    46.48     4.94   -19.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.41R    3.81  
Yeovil          35   29  -22      -4.08    32.07     0.95    39.60     4.07   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.44R   34.38  
Barnsley        35   29  -31      -5.26    26.32    -9.35    39.05     4.05   -38.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.61R   46.10  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 March 2014, Coventry 2 2 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   35   77  +43       5.45    73.52     7.59    98.90     4.28    53.32    75.08    95.97   100.00    97.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       35   76  +28      15.27    95.99     9.18    94.82     4.48    33.51    21.80    79.73   100.00    85.94P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   37   74  +36      10.35    87.08    16.75    89.21     3.94    40.33     2.95    21.49   100.00    46.60P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   68  +16      12.67    92.00     7.16    83.79     4.24    19.08     0.15     2.39    99.86    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       36   66  +23      11.37    88.42    15.27    79.57     4.31    22.59     0.01     0.41    98.51    18.38P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    36   58  +10      -0.95    45.76    -4.55    74.99     4.27    15.14     0.00     0.01    89.85    23.27P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         37   52   +3      -5.05    29.68    -6.30    64.99     4.06     3.94     0.00     0.00     4.33     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         37   49   +1      -1.45    43.94     1.14    62.62     4.06     2.89     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         37   48   +2      -9.45    15.32    -8.00    62.00     4.11     4.42     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   47   -1      -4.41    30.79    -8.06    63.93     4.67    -0.12     0.00     0.00     3.47     0.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       36   47   -9       4.01    67.42     1.63    58.92     4.25   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    0.36R    0.00  
Bradford        36   45   +4       0.45    52.60    11.07    56.74     4.18     0.97     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P    1.09R    0.01  
Gillingham      37   45  -11       1.45    56.73     0.55    55.21     3.90   -14.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.02R    0.04  
Crawley_Town    32   43   -3       2.17    60.67     1.55    60.58     5.06    -5.25     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.17P    0.55R    0.01  
Coventry        36   42   +1      -0.80    46.87    -3.64    55.60     4.28     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.04R    0.08  
Bristol_City    37   42   -5      -9.64    15.37    -5.78    55.58     4.11    -3.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.85R    0.08  
Colchester      35   39   -6      -3.34    35.46     2.18    52.27     4.34    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   15.10R    1.11  
Oldham          37   39  -13      -3.18    36.79    -0.34    49.49     3.90   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.75R    3.37  
Tranmere        36   39  -20      -3.57    35.12    -9.32    51.66     4.23   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.71R    1.50  
Carlisle        36   38  -19      -1.78    42.86    -3.76    48.41     3.98   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.54R    7.31  
Stevenage       36   37  -18      -4.01    33.05    -5.49    47.88     4.06   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.67R    8.45  
Crewe           37   37  -27      -0.66    47.89    -5.24    46.32     3.86   -31.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.66R   18.78  
Shrewsbury      36   34  -13      -7.60    19.20    -1.94    46.61     4.16   -14.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.09R   13.10  
Notts_County    37   31  -22     -13.45     6.71   -11.66    42.98     4.01   -22.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.51R   46.17  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 March 2014, Newport_County 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         37   66  +26       1.58    56.54     6.34    81.98     3.94    31.33    45.46    93.22   100.00    95.76P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           37   65  +21       1.05    54.11     1.56    80.84     4.05    26.04    30.03    89.12    99.98    93.02P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             36   64  +17       7.08    77.73     5.90    80.02     4.33    20.38    21.95    82.02    99.91    86.83P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       37   61  +12       6.91    77.21     6.95    73.60     4.03    12.43     1.55    19.24    95.93    37.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        37   61   +5       9.01    83.65     2.75    72.81     3.93     4.38     0.94    12.62    93.21    29.72P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   56  +11       1.01    54.74     4.56    68.70     3.96    11.65     0.06     2.63    72.65    21.16P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             37   52   +8      -4.42    31.52    -0.44    66.01     4.00    10.42     0.00     0.74    48.65    15.31P    0.00     0.00  
York                 37   52   +6       3.05    63.61     7.62    63.86     3.93     5.43     0.00     0.20    25.32     5.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Plymouth             36   51   +0       3.68    66.69     2.01    63.93     4.18    -0.82     0.00     0.15    24.41     5.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool           37   49   +4      -6.14    25.64    -2.66    62.39     3.99     5.64     0.00     0.02    16.72     4.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Cheltenham           36   47   -5      -1.87    42.19    -4.83    60.14     4.21    -5.71     0.00     0.01     6.24     1.56P    0.37R    0.03  
Morecambe            36   47   -7       1.02    54.91    -2.39    59.22     4.15    -9.14     0.00     0.01     3.60     0.68P    0.73R    0.05  
Dag_&_Red            36   46   -1      -0.71    47.53     2.49    59.20     4.27    -1.60     0.00     0.00     4.67     1.08P    0.68R    0.09  
Newport_County       35   45   -3       5.75    74.86     9.93    57.82     4.42    -6.32     0.00     0.01     2.86     0.43P    1.74R    0.27  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   44   -6       0.70    53.98     4.14    55.44     3.96    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P    4.80R    0.75  
Mansfield            37   43  -13       2.05    59.72     0.89    53.23     3.92   -15.96     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   15.22R    3.77  
Bury                 35   42   +0      -8.26    18.26    -3.60    58.29     4.54     1.78     0.00     0.00     4.19     1.17P    1.63R    0.29  
Bristol_Rovers       36   42   -6      -3.39    35.63    -0.97    54.93     4.19    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.10P    6.81R    1.51  
Portsmouth           37   42  -13      -9.65    15.29   -14.67    54.56     4.05   -12.63     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    8.45R    1.64  
Wycombe              36   41   -6      -5.92    25.71    -3.13    53.84     4.17    -7.19     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P   10.34R    2.65  
Exeter               37   41   -7      -8.76    17.08    -5.82    52.55     3.95    -8.08     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   15.09R    4.09  
Accrington_Stanley   36   41   -7      -2.49    39.47     1.05    53.88     4.17    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P   10.81R    2.20  
Northampton          36   38  -15      -5.56    26.75    -7.43    50.55     4.20   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.68R   11.47  
Torquay              36   33  -21      -8.52    16.52   -10.23    44.81     4.13   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.62R   71.18  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 March 2014, Aldershot 2 2 Nuneaton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            35   77  +58       5.82    75.94    19.46   100.62     3.99    72.44    99.94   100.00    99.96P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    37   64   +1      15.80    96.10     5.88    77.04     4.01     1.83     0.00    72.80     9.59P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    35   63  +28       5.26    72.86    13.50    81.94     4.27    34.14     0.04    96.89    30.66P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         38   61   -1      12.11    90.93     4.11    70.39     3.60    -3.39     0.00    13.69     1.95P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          37   57  +17       1.56    56.80    10.05    69.52     4.02    17.14     0.00    14.58     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   57  +17       0.13    50.21    -0.36    78.14     4.74    22.64     0.01    80.14    26.78P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           37   57   +7      -2.59    38.47    -6.47    70.83     3.99     9.27     0.00    19.50     5.21P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    36   57   +2       0.31    51.13    -9.62    72.75     4.18     5.00     0.00    33.88     8.29P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        37   56   +8       3.30    64.48     5.10    69.18     3.89     9.22     0.00    10.03     1.97P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        37   55   -6      10.61    88.03     4.37    65.63     3.89    -8.66     0.00     1.49     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   54  +18      -3.06    36.14     3.47    70.44     4.45    19.89     0.00    21.48     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   32   52  +13       5.85    76.27     9.31    72.02     4.96    13.99     0.00    33.06     6.41P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          36   52   +5       3.95    67.01     7.20    64.62     4.11     3.21     0.00     1.53     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     38   50   -2      -0.59    47.80     0.95    59.75     3.63    -3.79     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     35   48   +1      -1.22    44.66    -0.54    62.82     4.42     0.44     0.00     0.77     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           36   48   -7       2.67    62.18     0.36    58.69     4.00   -12.53     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Wrexham          37   47   -3      -9.46    14.51   -12.03    62.25     3.97     1.25     0.00     0.12     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Hereford         37   42  -13      -7.46    20.07   -10.79    53.27     3.85   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.94R    0.00  
Southport        36   40  -16      -1.80    42.39    -2.88    51.27     4.03   -20.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.66R    0.00  
Chester          37   39  -19       0.84    54.92     0.84    49.33     3.61   -22.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.95R    0.00  
Aldershot        36   37   +5     -11.38    10.53    -8.94    53.23     4.08     9.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.11R    0.00  
Dartford         37   34  -23      -7.91    17.96    -7.98    44.54     3.88   -25.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.13R    0.00  
Tamworth         36   32  -24      -5.50    25.98    -5.22    41.53     3.84   -30.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.12R    0.00  
Hyde_United      38   10  -66     -18.12     0.41   -19.77    15.42     3.03   -77.03     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10