Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 14 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Cardiff 3 1 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          29   66  +34       8.09    86.62     5.27    84.65     3.65    43.82    53.98    85.65    96.36    99.89   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.23    66.73     8.45    78.48     4.06    47.46     8.75    27.06    67.55    95.11    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.54    76.97     0.36    76.97     4.06    30.63     3.44    14.06    42.68    89.68    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.47    51.39     6.55    82.55     4.10    58.18    33.83    73.11    90.96    99.26    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   53   +0       8.55    86.49    -6.31    67.60     3.95     3.28     0.00     0.05     1.00     5.84    69.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   48  +15      -5.27    23.28    -8.41    67.14     4.05    23.65     0.00     0.03     0.75     5.70    70.66     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.61    73.11     2.07    66.37     4.40    15.81     0.00     0.05     0.71     4.52    58.21     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.25    83.36     3.53    55.77     4.04    -4.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.33     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   42   +4       3.40    67.28     6.96    53.77     3.85     2.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.35    28.52     1.29    42.46     3.95    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.70R    0.05  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -1.93    40.82     2.36    42.48     3.91   -11.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.56R    0.07  
Stoke            29   31  -14      -0.61    47.64    -1.24    42.41     3.86   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.63R    0.06  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.28    49.51     8.00    39.96     3.93   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.28R    0.35  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.56    19.06     1.64    41.94     4.13    -5.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.78R    0.12  
Norwich          29   29  -22      -1.27    44.41    -6.10    36.88     3.51   -29.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.67R    3.54  
Crystal_Palace   28   27  -19       2.04    62.90     2.67    34.84     3.63   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.08R   11.13  
West_Brom        28   25  -11      -9.08    11.16    -3.03    37.43     4.05   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.02R    3.08  
Cardiff          29   25  -28      -1.07    45.35    -4.69    32.82     3.53   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.27R   24.96  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.10    24.12    -5.69    36.53     4.18   -23.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.95R    5.90  
Fulham           29   21  -36      -6.74    17.76   -13.69    30.99     3.72   -40.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.06R   50.74  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 March 2014, Birmingham 3 3 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       34   77  +33      14.62    95.94     8.90    98.15     4.54    40.26    92.36    99.68   100.00    99.77P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         35   70  +27      11.82    91.25    11.71    88.36     4.42    31.84     7.39    84.84    99.95    88.68P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           35   62  +17       8.26    82.38     8.40    79.31     4.47    20.36     0.10     5.76    90.17    23.14P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             34   60  +12       5.88    75.10     0.99    79.61     4.61    16.57     0.11     6.15    90.08    28.78P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   35   56  +14       3.13    63.72     6.67    73.53     4.40    17.68     0.00     0.40    52.94    11.92P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         35   55  +15      -3.11    36.38    -0.45    73.59     4.52    20.35     0.00     0.68    54.83    15.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           33   55  +12       0.45    51.90    -1.63    76.01     4.84    16.86     0.04     2.33    70.44    21.75P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        34   53   +9       0.35    51.93    -0.06    71.54     4.55    12.08     0.00     0.15    32.20     8.16P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         35   51   +6       3.36    65.13     6.29    65.71     4.37     5.59     0.00     0.00     4.70     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       34   46   -3      -0.31    49.07    -2.68    61.88     4.61    -3.61     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         34   45   +8      -7.75    18.88    -1.13    63.80     4.67    11.62     0.00     0.00     2.73     0.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     34   45   -7       5.21    73.13     4.19    60.05     4.72    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   35   44   +6      -5.07    28.23     4.23    59.50     4.38     6.70     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield    35   44   -1      -0.34    48.94     4.48    57.28     4.40    -3.84     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United    34   44   -2      -0.65    47.50     1.25    60.61     4.61    -1.99     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Bolton          35   40   -4      -9.37    14.39    -5.84    56.86     4.50    -1.30     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.28R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       34   39   -2      -4.42    30.38     2.30    54.33     4.57    -3.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.81R    0.01  
Blackpool       35   38  -19      -5.20    27.94   -12.10    50.30     4.17   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.28R    0.26  
Birmingham      35   37   -5     -10.70    11.06    -4.45    51.98     4.49    -5.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.76R    0.08  
Doncaster       35   36  -22       0.47    53.42    -3.41    46.06     4.07   -29.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.70R    3.13  
Millwall        35   31  -30      -4.67    29.38   -11.33    42.68     4.16   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.49R   16.14  
Yeovil          34   29  -19      -4.15    31.57     1.54    40.41     4.21   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.72R   31.86  
Barnsley        34   29  -28      -5.26    26.26    -8.63    39.78     4.22   -37.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.41R   43.51  
Charlton        31   28  -17      -8.90    12.86    -9.25    46.77     5.17   -19.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.46R    5.01  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 March 2014, Sheff_Utd 1 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   34   76  +43       6.23    77.02     7.89   100.29     4.45    54.94    84.43    97.13   100.00    98.38P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   36   74  +37      11.33    89.79    17.06    90.80     4.21    41.65     5.56    40.29   100.00    59.69P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       34   73  +27      13.89    94.82     8.46    92.90     4.70    32.08     9.89    59.09   100.00    71.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   68  +16      12.68    91.96     7.23    83.97     4.23    19.30     0.09     2.73    99.82    26.23P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       35   65  +23      11.80    89.71    15.36    80.22     4.54    23.00     0.03     0.77    98.29    19.22P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    35   55   +8      -1.93    41.74    -5.54    73.10     4.53    12.73     0.00     0.00    75.42    18.68P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         36   52   +5      -4.43    31.34    -5.47    66.69     4.31     6.41     0.00     0.00    14.50     3.36P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         36   48   +1      -1.20    44.83     0.97    62.77     4.28     2.55     0.00     0.00     2.45     0.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         36   47   +2      -9.05    16.11    -7.93    62.36     4.35     4.39     0.00     0.00     2.44     0.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   47   -1      -4.41    30.82    -8.07    63.90     4.69    -0.15     0.00     0.00     4.86     1.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       35   46   -9       4.21    68.53     1.29    58.76     4.46   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.07P    0.67R    0.00  
Bradford        35   44   +4       1.13    55.66    11.52    57.30     4.43     1.26     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    1.24R    0.02  
Gillingham      36   44  -11       1.89    58.85     0.83    55.28     4.14   -14.99     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    4.07R    0.08  
Coventry        35   41   +1      -0.32    48.86    -3.44    56.52     4.52     1.43     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    2.49R    0.07  
Bristol_City    36   41   -5      -9.20    16.42    -5.53    55.88     4.37    -3.26     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    3.24R    0.12  
Crawley_Town    31   40   -4       0.69    54.14     0.86    59.04     5.23    -6.13     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.17P    1.60R    0.06  
Colchester      34   39   -5      -2.18    40.77     3.01    53.56     4.61    -7.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    10.95R    0.84  
Oldham          36   38  -13      -3.13    36.85    -0.64    49.87     4.16   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.40R    4.09  
Carlisle        35   37  -19      -1.54    43.91    -3.67    48.95     4.27   -24.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.90R    7.89  
Stevenage       35   36  -18      -3.83    33.44    -5.57    48.15     4.28   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.29R    9.75  
Tranmere        35   36  -21      -5.01    28.59   -10.10    50.15     4.51   -22.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.05R    5.17  
Crewe           36   36  -27      -0.08    50.81    -4.71    46.68     4.07   -32.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.87R   19.04  
Shrewsbury      35   33  -13      -7.63    18.95    -2.43    46.04     4.29   -15.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.10R   18.84  
Notts_County    36   31  -21     -12.51     7.65   -11.37    44.39     4.28   -21.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.08R   34.02  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 March 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         36   63  +23       1.23    55.24     5.18    80.48     4.22    28.49    42.92    88.38    99.93    92.35P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           36   62  +19       0.04    49.91     0.51    79.27     4.33    24.16    28.42    81.81    99.76    87.97P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             35   61  +16       6.09    75.05     5.80    78.82     4.53    20.01    23.13    77.41    99.62    83.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        36   60   +5       9.63    85.26     3.15    73.62     4.22     4.98     3.27    24.57    93.89    39.36P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       36   58  +10       6.24    75.39     6.26    71.82     4.26    10.23     1.49    15.37    88.56    32.15P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   56  +14       1.16    55.13     5.90    70.08     4.20    14.67     0.69     9.15    81.16    28.42P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             36   51   +8      -3.93    33.20    -0.27    66.58     4.26    10.71     0.05     2.03    52.55    16.95P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             35   51   +2       4.17    68.80     2.80    65.25     4.38     1.14     0.03     1.01    34.69     8.01P    0.00R    0.00  
York                 36   49   +4       2.06    59.68     6.52    62.10     4.14     3.29     0.00     0.13    13.91     2.94P    0.03R    0.00  
Hartlepool           36   46   +0      -5.99    25.87    -4.25    60.59     4.25     1.43     0.00     0.03     8.20     2.20P    0.28R    0.02  
Morecambe            35   46   -7       1.34    56.51    -2.43    59.50     4.42    -9.24     0.00     0.02     4.74     0.95P    1.14R    0.16  
Dag_&_Red            35   45   -1      -0.43    48.60     2.36    59.73     4.48    -1.38     0.00     0.02     6.16     1.30P    0.90R    0.17  
Newport_County       34   44   -3       5.98    75.98     9.71    58.08     4.69    -6.50     0.00     0.03     3.74     0.62P    2.84R    0.60  
Cheltenham           35   44   -6      -2.90    37.69    -4.89    58.77     4.46    -6.31     0.00     0.01     3.82     0.89P    1.79R    0.38  
AFC_Wimbledon        36   43   -6       1.12    55.92     4.16    55.39     4.16    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.11P    7.12R    1.47  
Bristol_Rovers       35   42   -2      -3.48    35.31     0.92    56.33     4.43    -2.85     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.31P    4.75R    1.22  
Portsmouth           36   42  -11      -9.27    15.53   -14.13    56.02     4.28   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.24P    5.98R    1.24  
Mansfield            36   42  -13       2.30    61.30     0.75    53.38     4.13   -16.25     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   19.06R    6.15  
Bury                 34   41   +0      -8.16    18.24    -3.93    58.36     4.78     1.37     0.00     0.01     5.01     1.47P    2.46R    0.64  
Wycombe              35   41   -4      -5.29    27.45    -2.17    55.27     4.43    -5.04     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.11P    7.95R    2.15  
Accrington_Stanley   35   41   -6      -1.63    43.31     1.24    54.74     4.36    -7.81     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09P   10.32R    2.37  
Exeter               36   40   -7      -8.32    18.04    -5.72    53.04     4.20    -7.90     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   16.89R    5.36  
Northampton          35   37  -15      -4.99    28.72    -7.27    51.10     4.43   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   37.53R   13.83  
Torquay              35   33  -20      -7.87    18.30   -10.20    45.98     4.35   -22.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.95R   64.24  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 13 March 2014, Forest_Green 0 2 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            35   77  +58       5.95    76.35    19.57   100.56     3.99    72.39    99.83   100.00    99.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    34   62  +28       6.03    75.98    14.04    83.29     4.45    35.65     0.15    98.32    31.58P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    36   61   +0      14.33    94.74     5.18    75.21     4.26     0.51     0.00    57.77     7.57P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         37   60   -1      12.24    91.59     3.73    70.10     3.79    -4.45     0.00    14.23     1.90P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           36   57   +8      -1.94    41.34    -6.67    72.02     4.22    10.04     0.00    31.98     8.90P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        36   55   +8       3.55    65.70     4.94    69.34     4.14     8.93     0.00    13.74     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          36   54  +16       0.40    51.84     9.87    67.50     4.32    15.49     0.00     9.04     1.75P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          32   54  +15      -0.54    47.30    -0.94    76.76     4.96    20.99     0.02    72.63    23.24P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    35   54   +1      -0.74    46.76    -9.81    71.33     4.45     4.36     0.00    26.24     6.50P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        36   54   -6      10.92    88.96     4.39    66.14     4.16    -8.51     0.00     3.04     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   31   52  +15       6.33    78.21     9.92    73.64     5.24    16.35     0.00    48.66     9.98P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          35   52   +6       5.21    72.09     8.07    66.32     4.38     4.64     0.00     4.88     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   51  +17      -4.33    30.37     2.92    69.00     4.68    19.18     0.00    16.14     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     34   48   +4      -0.94    45.94     0.62    64.44     4.67     3.80     0.00     2.70     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           36   48   -7       2.68    62.52     0.39    58.64     3.99   -12.58     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Wrexham          36   47   -1      -8.95    15.43   -11.37    63.29     4.15     2.80     0.00     0.60     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     37   47   -4      -1.58    43.62     0.01    58.11     3.90    -5.84     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.12R    0.00  
Hereford         36   41  -13      -6.62    22.48    -9.91    54.71     4.06   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.63R    0.00  
Chester          36   39  -18       1.70    58.61     1.15    50.96     3.90   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.09R    0.00  
Southport        35   37  -19      -2.31    39.84    -4.33    49.37     4.26   -23.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.20R    0.00  
Aldershot        35   36   +5     -10.68    11.63    -8.44    54.36     4.30    10.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.29R    0.00  
Dartford         36   33  -23      -7.88    17.92    -8.49    44.01     4.01   -27.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.97R    0.00  
Tamworth         35   32  -23      -4.46    30.05    -4.76    42.74     4.08   -30.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.62R    0.00  
Hyde_United      37    9  -66     -18.27     0.35   -20.08    14.79     3.16   -79.05     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10