Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 13 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Cardiff 3 1 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          29   66  +34       8.09    86.56     5.24    84.67     3.64    43.85    54.18    85.39    96.45    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.16    65.89     8.36    78.48     4.04    47.51     8.36    27.43    67.01    95.35    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.30    76.11     0.01    77.05     4.09    30.77     3.55    14.40    43.71    90.04    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.39    50.89     6.43    82.53     4.13    58.17    33.91    72.65    90.71    99.25    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   53   +0       8.55    86.70    -6.33    67.53     3.94     3.18     0.00     0.04     0.81     5.53    69.43     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   48  +15      -5.18    23.95    -8.29    67.13     4.06    23.63     0.00     0.03     0.64     5.34    70.28     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.56    72.91     1.98    66.38     4.40    15.81     0.00     0.06     0.67     4.57    59.05     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.25    82.97     3.55    55.72     4.06    -4.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.35     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   42   +4       3.40    67.10     6.98    53.82     3.84     2.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.34    28.38     1.31    42.45     3.95    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.62R    0.05  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -1.99    40.33     2.26    42.53     3.92   -11.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.58R    0.07  
Stoke            29   31  -14      -0.63    47.87    -1.32    42.44     3.85   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.61R    0.06  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.30    49.44     7.99    39.96     3.94   -10.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.01R    0.39  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.62    18.97     1.58    41.96     4.13    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.65R    0.12  
Norwich          29   29  -22      -1.12    44.93    -5.83    36.84     3.53   -29.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.17R    3.57  
Crystal_Palace   28   27  -19       2.11    63.26     2.79    34.86     3.64   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.82R   10.79  
West_Brom        28   25  -11      -8.98    11.26    -2.90    37.42     4.05   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.01R    3.09  
Cardiff          29   25  -28      -1.01    45.81    -4.55    32.81     3.51   -35.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.24R   25.20  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.01    24.30    -5.65    36.53     4.16   -23.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.02R    5.80  
Fulham           29   21  -36      -6.73    17.54   -13.63    30.97     3.72   -40.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.27R   50.87  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 March 2014, Birmingham 3 3 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       34   77  +33      14.45    95.92     8.78    98.23     4.52    40.36    92.54    99.72   100.00    99.80P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         35   70  +27      11.95    91.64    11.93    88.35     4.43    31.79     7.26    84.59    99.92    88.44P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           35   62  +17       8.30    82.40     8.38    79.34     4.47    20.37     0.08     6.03    90.00    23.71P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             34   60  +12       5.73    74.49     0.79    79.60     4.60    16.59     0.10     6.11    90.06    28.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   35   56  +14       3.01    63.54     6.51    73.52     4.38    17.66     0.00     0.46    53.07    11.92P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         35   55  +15      -3.14    36.14    -0.44    73.59     4.50    20.39     0.01     0.64    54.85    15.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           33   55  +12       0.59    52.70    -1.45    75.93     4.89    16.75     0.02     2.32    69.85    21.34P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        34   53   +9       0.36    51.55    -0.02    71.57     4.54    12.10     0.00     0.12    32.71     8.33P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         35   51   +6       3.19    64.53     6.07    65.79     4.34     5.70     0.00     0.00     4.86     0.83P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       34   46   -3      -0.25    49.50    -2.62    61.88     4.63    -3.62     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         34   45   +8      -7.81    18.44    -1.25    63.81     4.67    11.66     0.00     0.00     2.89     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     34   45   -7       5.23    73.52     4.21    60.00     4.73    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   35   44   +6      -5.03    28.66     4.28    59.46     4.37     6.66     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    35   44   -1      -0.33    48.94     4.47    57.22     4.36    -3.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds_United    34   44   -2      -0.65    47.73     1.20    60.64     4.61    -1.96     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Bolton          35   40   -4      -9.13    15.05    -5.56    56.80     4.51    -1.37     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.29R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   39   -2      -4.42    30.42     2.32    54.25     4.56    -3.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.81R    0.01  
Blackpool       35   38  -19      -5.12    28.19   -11.98    50.32     4.19   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.35R    0.30  
Birmingham      35   37   -5     -10.87    10.56    -4.78    52.07     4.46    -4.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.78R    0.09  
Doncaster       35   36  -22       0.63    54.42    -3.21    45.97     4.06   -30.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.55R    3.35  
Millwall        35   31  -30      -4.81    28.51   -11.65    42.75     4.17   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.61R   15.90  
Yeovil          34   29  -19      -4.21    31.21     1.48    40.48     4.25   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.90R   31.32  
Barnsley        34   29  -28      -4.97    27.97    -8.19    39.76     4.23   -37.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.59R   44.06  
Charlton        31   28  -17      -8.90    12.92    -9.30    46.75     5.15   -19.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   27.02R    4.97  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 March 2014, Sheff_Utd 1 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   34   76  +43       6.38    77.32     8.13   100.25     4.47    54.87    84.18    96.97   100.00    98.33P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   36   74  +37      11.18    89.36    16.82    90.87     4.20    41.74     5.69    40.75   100.00    60.00P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       34   73  +27      13.89    94.78     8.45    92.88     4.69    32.08    10.01    58.71   100.00    71.78P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   68  +16      12.84    92.21     7.46    83.90     4.26    19.22     0.09     2.74    99.83    25.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       35   65  +23      11.75    89.56    15.29    80.27     4.56    23.03     0.03     0.84    98.32    19.24P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    35   55   +8      -1.79    42.45    -5.35    73.09     4.49    12.71     0.00     0.00    75.37    18.78P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         36   52   +5      -4.30    31.89    -5.33    66.68     4.31     6.41     0.00     0.00    14.53     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         36   48   +1      -1.15    45.11     1.08    62.73     4.29     2.50     0.00     0.00     2.42     0.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon         36   47   +2      -8.99    16.17    -7.92    62.29     4.37     4.30     0.00     0.00     2.44     0.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   47   -1      -4.52    30.33    -8.18    63.95     4.67    -0.08     0.00     0.00     4.78     1.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale       35   46   -9       4.12    68.07     1.19    58.83     4.50   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.11P    0.73R    0.00  
Bradford        35   44   +4       0.90    54.80    11.22    57.37     4.42     1.34     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.04P    1.14R    0.01  
Gillingham      36   44  -11       1.87    58.84     0.75    55.30     4.11   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    3.99R    0.06  
Coventry        35   41   +1      -0.14    49.48    -3.20    56.45     4.51     1.34     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    2.63R    0.08  
Bristol_City    36   41   -5      -9.53    15.50    -5.96    56.00     4.39    -3.08     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    3.17R    0.11  
Crawley_Town    31   40   -4       0.88    54.92     1.18    58.97     5.26    -6.27     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.16P    1.82R    0.06  
Colchester      34   39   -5      -2.33    40.12     2.85    53.61     4.61    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   10.76R    0.84  
Oldham          36   38  -13      -2.98    37.42    -0.47    49.82     4.16   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.09R    4.09  
Carlisle        35   37  -19      -1.44    44.51    -3.50    48.95     4.28   -24.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.26R    7.69  
Stevenage       35   36  -18      -3.78    33.72    -5.50    48.13     4.31   -22.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.58R    9.78  
Tranmere        35   36  -21      -5.03    28.80   -10.11    50.15     4.45   -22.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.87R    4.85  
Crewe           36   36  -27      -0.39    49.31    -5.28    46.76     4.12   -31.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.82R   18.70  
Shrewsbury      35   33  -13      -7.63    18.91    -2.47    46.02     4.30   -15.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.08R   19.07  
Notts_County    36   31  -21     -12.39     8.05   -11.16    44.35     4.28   -21.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.02R   34.66  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 March 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         36   63  +23       1.27    55.38     5.20    80.49     4.20    28.52    42.83    88.72    99.93    92.63P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           36   62  +19       0.20    50.71     0.75    79.25     4.29    24.10    28.07    81.91    99.79    88.03P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             35   61  +16       6.01    74.51     5.67    78.85     4.58    20.07    23.63    77.20    99.53    83.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        36   60   +5       9.71    85.70     3.24    73.58     4.21     4.94     3.17    24.17    93.87    38.73P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       36   58  +10       6.19    75.20     6.22    71.85     4.26    10.29     1.50    15.59    88.99    32.18P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   56  +14       1.10    54.91     5.82    70.10     4.21    14.68     0.73     9.25    81.41    29.13P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             36   51   +8      -3.86    33.52    -0.18    66.52     4.25    10.61     0.06     1.90    52.41    16.62P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             35   51   +2       4.16    68.33     2.78    65.18     4.42     1.05     0.03     1.01    34.12     7.90P    0.01R    0.00  
York                 36   49   +4       2.28    60.72     6.88    62.04     4.14     3.18     0.00     0.11    13.59     2.88P    0.07R    0.01  
Hartlepool           36   46   +0      -5.84    26.28    -4.05    60.56     4.25     1.39     0.00     0.02     8.32     2.27P    0.31R    0.04  
Morecambe            35   46   -7       1.29    56.30    -2.52    59.49     4.40    -9.23     0.00     0.02     4.68     0.90P    1.19R    0.14  
Dag_&_Red            35   45   -1      -0.34    48.91     2.46    59.77     4.49    -1.34     0.00     0.02     6.33     1.36P    0.89R    0.20  
Newport_County       34   44   -3       5.84    75.27     9.56    58.10     4.70    -6.46     0.00     0.03     3.48     0.58P    2.84R    0.60  
Cheltenham           35   44   -6      -3.09    36.72    -5.19    58.88     4.46    -6.17     0.00     0.02     3.91     0.90P    1.54R    0.36  
AFC_Wimbledon        36   43   -6       0.82    54.42     3.75    55.44     4.17    -7.60     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.08P    6.92R    1.43  
Bristol_Rovers       35   42   -2      -3.53    35.10     0.80    56.33     4.41    -2.86     0.00     0.00     1.37     0.31P    4.72R    1.15  
Portsmouth           36   42  -11      -9.11    16.00   -13.90    55.99     4.28   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.20P    6.10R    1.27  
Mansfield            36   42  -13       2.32    61.25     0.75    53.36     4.14   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   19.29R    6.03  
Bury                 34   41   +0      -8.13    18.46    -3.90    58.42     4.79     1.46     0.00     0.02     5.27     1.46P    2.44R    0.61  
Wycombe              35   41   -4      -5.40    27.33    -2.27    55.32     4.46    -4.97     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.18P    7.58R    2.09  
Accrington_Stanley   35   41   -6      -1.77    42.69     1.06    54.75     4.39    -7.80     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.10P   10.33R    2.46  
Exeter               36   40   -7      -8.30    17.89    -5.73    53.06     4.21    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.05P   16.76R    5.21  
Northampton          35   37  -15      -5.05    28.43    -7.28    51.05     4.43   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   38.05R   13.82  
Torquay              35   33  -20      -7.71    18.50    -9.93    45.93     4.36   -22.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.97R   64.58  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 13 March 2014, Forest_Green 0 2 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            35   77  +58       5.83    75.61    19.34   100.65     3.98    72.50    99.84   100.00    99.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    34   62  +28       5.84    75.37    13.79    83.34     4.47    35.73     0.14    98.35    32.31P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    36   61   +0      14.32    94.75     5.14    75.22     4.27     0.54     0.00    58.10     7.67P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         37   60   -1      12.25    91.59     3.74    70.07     3.79    -4.50     0.00    14.26     1.90P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           36   57   +8      -1.94    41.35    -6.63    72.01     4.23    10.02     0.00    31.79     8.46P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        36   55   +8       3.59    65.93     5.01    69.36     4.16     8.91     0.00    13.77     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          36   54  +16       0.51    52.66    10.02    67.44     4.27    15.36     0.00     8.72     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          32   54  +15      -0.51    47.23    -0.84    76.80     4.97    21.04     0.01    73.25    23.32P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    35   54   +1      -0.82    46.24    -9.92    71.34     4.44     4.36     0.00    26.63     6.47P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        36   54   -6      11.08    89.31     4.62    66.08     4.16    -8.61     0.00     2.98     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   31   52  +15       6.67    79.37    10.41    73.47     5.19    16.12     0.00    47.28     9.53P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          35   52   +6       4.86    70.78     7.53    66.42     4.39     4.83     0.00     5.25     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   51  +17      -4.16    31.43     3.23    68.95     4.69    19.06     0.00    16.20     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     34   48   +4      -1.12    45.08     0.31    64.50     4.68     3.90     0.00     2.77     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           36   48   -7       2.84    63.27     0.67    58.61     3.98   -12.65     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.07R    0.00  
Wrexham          36   47   -1      -9.00    15.54   -11.44    63.28     4.16     2.80     0.00     0.64     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     37   47   -4      -1.31    44.73     0.37    58.14     3.91    -5.81     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Hereford         36   41  -13      -7.10    21.10   -10.63    54.82     4.05   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.64R    0.00  
Chester          36   39  -18       1.84    59.44     1.45    50.87     3.89   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.38R    0.00  
Southport        35   37  -19      -2.44    39.27    -4.54    49.44     4.27   -23.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.94R    0.00  
Aldershot        35   36   +5     -10.50    12.01    -8.22    54.35     4.32    10.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.39R    0.00  
Dartford         36   33  -23      -7.71    18.45    -8.17    43.98     4.02   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.13R    0.00  
Tamworth         35   32  -23      -4.55    29.42    -4.91    42.74     4.10   -30.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.36R    0.00  
Hyde_United      37    9  -66     -18.35     0.35   -20.34    14.85     3.17   -78.96     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10