Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 11 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Cardiff 3 1 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          29   66  +34       8.06    86.46     5.22    84.70     3.67    43.89    54.30    85.48    96.39    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.06    65.63     8.14    78.49     4.05    47.50     8.53    27.23    67.73    94.89    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.49    76.96     0.29    76.98     4.09    30.65     3.57    14.14    42.91    89.69    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.55    51.54     6.70    82.54     4.12    58.20    33.60    73.00    90.70    99.19    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   53   +0       8.53    86.35    -6.33    67.61     3.96     3.30     0.00     0.06     0.97     5.98    70.29     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   48  +15      -5.16    23.77    -8.22    67.10     4.09    23.60     0.00     0.05     0.66     5.63    69.84     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.68    73.50     2.13    66.40     4.39    15.85     0.00     0.04     0.64     4.72    58.77     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.25    82.98     3.53    55.78     4.05    -4.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   42   +4       3.51    67.85     7.08    53.75     3.83     2.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.48    27.84     1.11    42.49     4.00    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.66R    0.05  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.04    39.96     2.23    42.47     3.93   -11.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.56R    0.07  
Stoke            29   31  -14      -0.53    48.04    -1.14    42.39     3.84   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.67R    0.06  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.25    49.64     8.06    39.94     3.92   -10.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.09R    0.35  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.59    19.00     1.62    41.92     4.12    -5.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.74R    0.12  
Norwich          29   29  -22      -1.22    44.37    -5.99    36.86     3.53   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.00R    3.52  
Crystal_Palace   28   27  -19       2.11    63.37     2.69    34.87     3.62   -27.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.42R   10.89  
West_Brom        28   25  -11      -9.10    10.94    -3.07    37.43     4.04   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.81R    3.18  
Cardiff          29   25  -28      -1.02    45.59    -4.53    32.79     3.49   -35.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.79R   25.25  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.17    23.75    -5.89    36.56     4.18   -23.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.05R    5.71  
Fulham           29   21  -36      -6.72    17.67   -13.62    31.00     3.71   -40.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.22R   50.80  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 March 2014, Barnsley 0 3 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       34   77  +33      14.39    95.75     8.55    98.25     4.52    40.45    91.34    99.75   100.00    99.82P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         34   69  +27      12.29    92.63    11.91    88.78     4.65    31.89     8.49    86.41    99.96    89.87P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           35   62  +17       8.50    83.00     8.74    79.26     4.49    20.29     0.05     5.51    91.76    23.50P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             34   60  +12       5.92    75.49     1.01    79.55     4.59    16.50     0.10     5.79    91.30    28.74P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   35   56  +14       3.02    63.43     6.49    73.56     4.40    17.71     0.00     0.48    57.93    13.50P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        34   53   +9       0.39    51.81    -0.01    71.52     4.54    12.04     0.00     0.13    36.34     9.44P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         34   52  +13      -3.76    33.10    -0.92    71.74     4.75    18.01     0.00     0.29    42.50    12.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.47    47.66    -1.64    74.81     5.05    16.49     0.01     1.62    65.37    19.64P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         35   51   +6       3.48    66.13     6.46    65.77     4.37     5.65     0.00     0.01     6.08     1.09P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   46   -2       0.70    53.74    -2.16    64.02     4.87    -1.53     0.00     0.01     3.18     0.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         34   45   +8      -7.79    18.66    -1.23    63.77     4.63    11.60     0.00     0.00     3.35     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   35   44   +6      -5.08    28.49     4.19    59.48     4.39     6.72     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    33   44   +0       0.09    51.03     2.11    62.21     4.85     0.43     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    34   43   -1      -0.05    50.26     4.47    57.38     4.58    -4.26     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   42   -8       3.58    67.08     3.33    57.77     4.91   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.19R    0.00  
Bolton          35   40   -4      -9.24    14.84    -5.75    56.88     4.51    -1.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.26R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   39   -1      -3.89    32.38     2.10    55.16     4.75    -3.33     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.60R    0.01  
Blackpool       35   38  -19      -5.13    28.04   -12.01    50.27     4.16   -23.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.61R    0.33  
Birmingham      34   36   -5     -10.47    11.12    -4.78    52.34     4.69    -5.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.95R    0.11  
Doncaster       35   36  -22       0.65    54.22    -3.15    45.94     4.05   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.12R    3.27  
Millwall        35   31  -30      -4.94    28.10   -11.76    42.73     4.16   -35.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.46R   15.98  
Yeovil          34   29  -19      -4.23    31.09     1.48    40.43     4.22   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.97R   31.66  
Barnsley        34   29  -28      -5.05    27.15    -8.28    39.73     4.18   -37.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.48R   44.27  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.53    13.51    -9.14    47.47     5.37   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.26R    4.37  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 March 2014, Brentford 2 0 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   34   76  +43       6.40    77.65     8.19   100.24     4.45    54.84    84.56    96.99   100.00    98.34P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   36   74  +37      11.33    89.64    17.07    90.82     4.22    41.66     5.53    41.11   100.00    60.22P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       34   73  +27      13.92    94.44     8.56    92.83     4.71    32.00     9.79    58.46   100.00    71.54P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   68  +16      12.70    92.08     7.23    83.96     4.25    19.31     0.10     2.67    99.85    26.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       35   65  +23      11.76    89.81    15.33    80.27     4.51    23.05     0.03     0.77    98.38    19.10P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    35   55   +8      -1.80    42.26    -5.37    73.07     4.53    12.64     0.00     0.00    75.84    18.67P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         36   52   +5      -4.28    32.02    -5.28    66.65     4.31     6.36     0.00     0.00    14.74     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         36   48   +1      -1.17    45.52     1.06    62.73     4.29     2.51     0.00     0.00     2.58     0.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon         36   47   +2      -8.89    16.34    -7.73    62.30     4.35     4.29     0.00     0.00     2.50     0.63P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale       35   46   -9       4.20    68.54     1.28    58.81     4.46   -12.95     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.09P    0.72R    0.00  
Bradford        35   44   +4       0.90    54.52    11.25    57.36     4.44     1.34     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    1.35R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd       33   44   -2      -5.32    26.89    -7.99    62.71     4.92    -0.54     0.00     0.00     3.69     0.88P    0.13R    0.00  
Gillingham      36   44  -11       1.73    58.42     0.53    55.36     4.13   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    4.33R    0.07  
Coventry        35   41   +1      -0.26    48.94    -3.41    56.54     4.53     1.46     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.06P    2.61R    0.06  
Bristol_City    36   41   -5      -9.43    15.81    -5.89    55.92     4.37    -3.16     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    3.40R    0.12  
Crawley_Town    31   40   -4       0.68    54.00     0.82    59.12     5.30    -6.04     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.19P    1.79R    0.06  
Colchester      34   39   -5      -2.46    39.19     2.61    53.60     4.55    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.09R    0.81  
Oldham          36   38  -13      -3.03    37.00    -0.56    49.83     4.16   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.96R    4.15  
Carlisle        34   37  -18      -0.83    47.09    -3.60    49.89     4.46   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   38.24R    5.97  
Stevenage       35   36  -18      -3.85    33.58    -5.67    48.20     4.30   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.94R    9.61  
Tranmere        35   36  -21      -4.94    29.00    -9.94    50.16     4.46   -22.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.86R    5.21  
Crewe           36   36  -27      -0.19    50.09    -4.86    46.69     4.09   -32.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.43R   19.50  
Shrewsbury      35   33  -13      -7.51    19.23    -2.32    46.00     4.33   -15.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.92R   19.49  
Notts_County    36   31  -21     -12.46     7.92   -11.30    44.32     4.28   -21.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.18R   34.93  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 March 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         36   63  +23       1.32    55.66     5.32    80.42     4.23    28.41    42.14    88.60    99.92    92.42P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           36   62  +19      -0.20    48.99     0.18    79.32     4.30    24.21    28.88    82.27    99.77    88.29P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             35   61  +16       6.23    75.39     6.02    78.80     4.58    19.97    23.73    77.07    99.54    83.08P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        36   60   +5       9.88    86.09     3.50    73.51     4.18     4.84     2.91    23.71    93.76    38.37P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       36   58  +10       6.21    75.33     6.23    71.86     4.27    10.28     1.52    15.82    88.97    32.37P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   56  +14       0.95    54.35     5.55    70.12     4.21    14.71     0.73     9.35    81.32    29.26P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             36   51   +8      -3.93    33.33    -0.27    66.54     4.27    10.68     0.06     1.97    52.41    16.98P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             35   51   +2       4.23    68.67     2.93    65.18     4.44     1.06     0.03     0.96    34.33     7.92P    0.01R    0.00  
York                 36   49   +4       2.25    60.20     6.83    62.04     4.17     3.19     0.00     0.13    13.71     2.94P    0.05R    0.00  
Hartlepool           36   46   +0      -6.03    25.71    -4.29    60.61     4.27     1.43     0.00     0.04     8.39     2.29P    0.32R    0.04  
Morecambe            35   46   -7       1.30    56.34    -2.51    59.54     4.40    -9.19     0.00     0.02     4.69     0.95P    1.13R    0.18  
Dag_&_Red            35   45   -1      -0.38    48.86     2.42    59.77     4.48    -1.32     0.00     0.02     6.32     1.33P    0.86R    0.15  
Newport_County       34   44   -3       5.72    75.05     9.38    58.14     4.65    -6.40     0.00     0.02     3.54     0.59P    2.50R    0.54  
Cheltenham           35   44   -6      -3.01    37.27    -5.07    58.79     4.47    -6.29     0.00     0.01     3.83     0.86P    1.73R    0.37  
AFC_Wimbledon        36   43   -6       0.84    54.63     3.79    55.47     4.19    -7.55     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.11P    6.96R    1.42  
Bristol_Rovers       35   42   -2      -3.37    35.54     1.09    56.31     4.42    -2.86     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.27P    4.93R    1.28  
Portsmouth           36   42  -11      -9.21    16.14   -14.06    56.02     4.30   -10.48     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.21P    6.27R    1.38  
Mansfield            36   42  -13       2.17    60.39     0.56    53.41     4.14   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   18.88R    5.92  
Bury                 34   41   +0      -8.10    18.56    -3.88    58.37     4.78     1.37     0.00     0.01     5.09     1.41P    2.53R    0.62  
Wycombe              35   41   -4      -5.19    28.39    -1.96    55.24     4.44    -5.08     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.18P    7.85R    2.19  
Accrington_Stanley   35   41   -6      -1.59    43.50     1.32    54.71     4.40    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.13P   10.44R    2.62  
Exeter               36   40   -7      -8.45    17.32    -5.97    53.12     4.23    -7.80     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   16.28R    5.23  
Northampton          35   37  -15      -4.92    28.86    -7.17    51.04     4.45   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   38.28R   14.14  
Torquay              35   33  -20      -7.68    18.53    -9.95    45.96     4.36   -22.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.98R   63.91  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 March 2014, Aldershot 2 0 Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            35   77  +58       5.77    75.97    19.26   100.61     3.98    72.53    99.85   100.00    99.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    34   62  +28       5.97    76.00    13.98    83.27     4.43    35.64     0.14    98.31    31.54P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    36   61   +0      14.35    94.95     5.21    75.28     4.26     0.59     0.00    58.99     7.59P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         37   60   -1      12.13    91.34     3.58    70.15     3.79    -4.34     0.00    15.11     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           36   57   +8      -1.71    42.38    -6.22    72.00     4.22     9.98     0.00    32.18     8.53P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        36   55   +8       3.55    65.85     4.97    69.39     4.12     9.01     0.00    13.89     2.55P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          36   54  +16       0.45    52.26     9.92    67.58     4.26    15.58     0.00     9.08     2.00P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          32   54  +15      -0.36    47.83    -0.67    76.73     4.97    20.93     0.00    72.61    22.96P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    35   54   +1      -0.79    46.44    -9.86    71.28     4.41     4.25     0.00    26.11     6.47P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        36   54   -6      10.86    88.94     4.28    66.18     4.16    -8.48     0.00     3.18     0.39P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          35   52   +6       5.09    71.70     7.83    66.36     4.36     4.70     0.00     5.07     0.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     33   51  +19      -3.30    34.85     4.27    71.26     4.88    22.50     0.00    31.96     8.57P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   30   49  +13       5.28    74.83     8.81    70.97     5.42    12.71     0.00    29.99     5.80P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     34   48   +4      -0.94    45.85     0.64    64.42     4.70     3.83     0.00     2.83     0.61P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           36   48   -7       2.78    62.97     0.54    58.56     3.96   -12.73     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Wrexham          36   47   -1      -8.82    16.12   -11.20    63.24     4.19     2.73     0.00     0.67     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     37   47   -4      -1.28    44.81     0.53    58.15     3.89    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Hereford         36   41  -13      -6.95    21.55   -10.42    54.77     4.08   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.71R    0.00  
Chester          36   39  -18       1.81    59.21     1.35    50.91     3.89   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.17R    0.00  
Southport        35   37  -19      -2.31    39.77    -4.30    49.39     4.26   -23.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.31R    0.00  
Aldershot        35   36   +5     -10.82    11.23    -8.76    54.45     4.31    10.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.22R    0.00  
Dartford         36   33  -23      -7.96    17.35    -8.52    44.02     4.01   -27.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.71R    0.00  
Tamworth         35   32  -23      -4.43    30.17    -4.65    42.72     4.11   -30.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.69R    0.00  
Hyde_United      37    9  -66     -18.52     0.34   -20.58    14.84     3.16   -78.93     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10