Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 10 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Cardiff 3 1 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          29   66  +34       8.10    86.46     5.38    84.64     3.65    43.75    53.91    85.44    96.29    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.03    65.48     8.18    78.51     4.06    47.57     8.65    27.32    67.87    95.25    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.55    76.93     0.39    77.00     4.09    30.71     3.47    14.37    42.88    89.75    99.44     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.49    51.58     6.64    82.51     4.12    58.12    33.97    72.73    90.66    99.20    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   53   +0       8.51    86.37    -6.41    67.58     3.95     3.27     0.00     0.06     0.89     5.91    69.57     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   48  +15      -5.26    23.57    -8.37    67.10     4.06    23.55     0.00     0.03     0.69     5.23    69.72     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.58    73.43     1.97    66.45     4.38    15.91     0.00     0.04     0.71     4.73    59.52     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.24    83.00     3.55    55.75     4.06    -4.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.40     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   42   +4       3.45    67.62     6.95    53.78     3.83     2.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.25    29.10     1.45    42.40     3.96    -8.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.74R    0.06  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.08    39.93     2.14    42.56     3.91   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.55R    0.07  
Stoke            29   31  -14      -0.66    47.27    -1.35    42.43     3.84   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.73R    0.07  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.22    49.68     8.10    39.91     3.93   -10.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.16R    0.39  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.63    18.93     1.51    41.98     4.11    -5.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.68R    0.10  
Norwich          29   29  -22      -1.29    44.09    -6.09    36.88     3.52   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.56R    3.38  
Crystal_Palace   28   27  -19       2.19    63.98     2.78    34.86     3.61   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.62R   10.67  
West_Brom        28   25  -11      -9.06    10.90    -3.06    37.44     4.05   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.71R    3.23  
Cardiff          29   25  -28      -0.92    46.27    -4.42    32.78     3.50   -35.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.68R   25.30  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.15    24.00    -5.80    36.53     4.17   -23.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.19R    5.81  
Fulham           29   21  -36      -6.69    17.86   -13.54    30.98     3.71   -40.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.37R   50.94  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 March 2014, Blackburn 1 2 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.26    95.85     7.90    96.88     4.74    37.77    86.46    98.94   100.00    99.28P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         34   69  +27      12.19    92.23    11.72    88.84     4.65    31.98    12.79    81.78    99.96    86.59P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           34   61  +17       8.96    84.64     8.82    80.15     4.74    21.04     0.24     7.65    93.38    25.75P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             33   60  +14       6.44    77.74     1.93    80.96     4.81    18.67     0.48     9.36    94.58    32.75P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   34   55  +14       3.40    64.99     6.47    73.75     4.61    17.47     0.00     0.52    60.03    13.70P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         34   52  +13      -3.93    32.86    -1.19    71.80     4.74    18.08     0.00     0.24    43.89    12.51P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.34    48.08    -1.50    74.79     5.05    16.46     0.03     1.46    66.13    19.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        33   50   +7      -0.42    48.16    -0.88    69.75     4.75     9.87     0.00     0.04    24.00     5.97P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         34   48   +5       1.92    59.31     5.67    64.25     4.60     4.79     0.00     0.00     4.01     0.75P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   46   -2       0.74    53.84    -2.14    63.99     4.85    -1.58     0.00     0.00     3.22     0.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.42    22.69    -0.27    65.54     4.89    13.13     0.00     0.00     8.04     2.04P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   44   +0       0.01    50.63     2.07    62.17     4.85     0.35     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   34   43   +6      -4.80    29.21     4.07    60.01     4.60     6.95     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    34   43   -1      -0.12    50.04     4.37    57.42     4.58    -4.21     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.10R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   42   -8       3.70    67.80     3.55    57.67     4.93   -11.23     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.01P    0.20R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       33   39   -1      -3.85    32.61     2.19    55.27     4.78    -3.18     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.67R    0.01  
Bolton          34   39   -4      -9.06    14.76    -5.96    56.80     4.72    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.34R    0.02  
Birmingham      34   36   -5     -10.35    11.09    -4.59    52.28     4.66    -5.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.14R    0.17  
Blackpool       34   35  -20      -6.23    23.41   -12.07    49.08     4.41   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.05R    1.38  
Doncaster       34   33  -23      -0.87    46.87    -4.05    43.91     4.29   -31.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.36R   13.23  
Millwall        34   31  -29      -3.98    31.93   -11.29    43.75     4.36   -34.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.54R   15.25  
Yeovil          33   29  -18      -3.59    33.80     1.52    41.89     4.52   -25.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.83R   25.28  
Barnsley        33   29  -25      -4.95    27.28    -7.35    40.78     4.46   -34.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.84R   39.05  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.37    13.95    -8.99    47.37     5.40   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.91R    5.61  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Brentford 2 0 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   33   73  +40       6.00    76.23     7.23    98.53     4.74    51.61    80.30    95.39   100.00    97.44P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   35   71  +35      10.59    88.19    16.31    89.55     4.43    40.25     6.94    39.76   100.00    58.93P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   70  +25      13.25    93.95     7.86    91.63     4.90    30.64    12.19    57.11   100.00    70.25P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         35   67  +16      13.28    93.31     7.51    84.62     4.48    19.71     0.52     6.90    99.80    29.30P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       34   62  +21      11.08    88.62    14.75    78.68     4.76    21.06     0.05     0.77    95.62    17.55P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    34   55   +9      -0.62    47.10    -4.69    75.17     4.74    14.85     0.00     0.06    85.21    22.15P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         35   49   +3      -5.17    28.28    -6.19    65.02     4.53     4.36     0.00     0.00     6.60     1.63P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         35   47   +5      -8.76    16.61    -6.59    63.65     4.57     7.32     0.00     0.00     3.73     0.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         35   47   +1      -0.47    48.41     1.58    63.78     4.53     3.48     0.00     0.00     3.46     0.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale       34   46   -7       4.57    70.23     1.73    60.00     4.69   -11.21     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.12P    0.54R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd       33   44   -2      -5.51    26.33    -8.25    62.79     4.90    -0.42     0.00     0.00     2.89     0.67P    0.12R    0.00  
Coventry        34   41   +3       0.35    51.62    -2.67    58.37     4.76     4.22     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.15P    1.39R    0.03  
Bradford        34   41   +2       0.04    50.97    10.39    55.21     4.62    -1.45     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    5.58R    0.22  
Gillingham      35   41  -13       1.13    56.06    -0.06    53.30     4.35   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.64R    0.86  
Colchester      33   39   -3      -1.91    41.88     3.43    55.47     4.83    -5.12     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    6.76R    0.46  
Crawley_Town    30   39   -4       1.05    55.65     0.92    59.41     5.47    -6.14     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.12P    2.18R    0.11  
Bristol_City    35   38   -6     -10.55    12.74    -6.13    53.57     4.58    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   11.39R    0.99  
Oldham          35   38  -11      -2.43    39.75     0.29    51.26     4.40   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.06R    2.77  
Carlisle        34   37  -18      -0.83    47.21    -3.56    49.77     4.45   -24.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.53R    6.91  
Tranmere        34   36  -19      -4.59    30.32    -9.54    51.01     4.66   -21.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.73R    4.46  
Stevenage       34   35  -18      -3.66    34.01    -5.85    48.25     4.51   -22.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.77R   11.60  
Crewe           35   35  -27      -0.35    49.46    -5.61    46.55     4.31   -32.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.71R   23.93  
Shrewsbury      34   32  -13      -7.24    19.82    -2.37    46.39     4.54   -15.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.31R   20.77  
Notts_County    35   31  -19     -11.80     8.79   -10.48    45.68     4.53   -19.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.22R   26.87  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         35   62  +23       1.86    58.03     5.50    81.26     4.45    29.03    39.08    88.19    99.94    92.17P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           35   61  +19       0.69    52.72     0.94    79.99     4.53    24.64    26.24    81.37    99.77    87.55P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             34   61  +17       7.25    79.30     6.44    80.65     4.80    21.67    30.12    82.84    99.83    87.47P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   59   +5      10.03    86.73     3.26    73.76     4.45     4.66     2.48    21.36    93.62    36.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   57  +10       6.46    76.57     6.01    72.03     4.49    10.03     1.21    13.66    88.77    30.52P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   55  +14       1.63    57.22     6.07    70.79     4.44    15.14     0.80    10.12    85.02    30.83P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             35   50   +8      -3.75    33.96    -0.54    66.60     4.47    10.25     0.05     1.88    54.06    17.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Plymouth             34   48   +1       2.83    63.27     2.30    63.28     4.63    -0.31     0.01     0.35    21.87     4.87P    0.05R    0.00  
York                 35   46   +3       0.90    54.54     6.22    60.37     4.41     2.14     0.00     0.06     8.62     1.83P    0.32R    0.03  
Hartlepool           35   45   +0      -5.59    26.95    -4.14    61.09     4.50     1.58     0.00     0.05    11.57     3.22P    0.28R    0.01  
Newport_County       33   44   +0       5.98    76.22    10.56    59.63     4.89    -3.14     0.00     0.05     7.51     1.29P    1.17R    0.16  
Cheltenham           34   43   -6      -2.83    37.63    -5.28    58.79     4.69    -6.80     0.00     0.01     5.02     1.17P    1.69R    0.27  
Morecambe            34   43  -10       0.95    55.26    -3.72    57.74     4.61   -12.41     0.00     0.01     2.67     0.56P    3.30R    0.45  
Bristol_Rovers       34   42   -1      -2.52    39.12     1.37    57.98     4.65    -1.42     0.00     0.01     3.81     0.82P    2.06R    0.31  
Dag_&_Red            34   42   -2      -1.87    41.91     1.61    57.91     4.69    -2.61     0.00     0.01     3.64     0.74P    2.40R    0.39  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   42   -6       1.04    55.59     3.57    55.34     4.37    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.14P    6.90R    0.90  
Mansfield            35   42  -12       3.24    65.37     1.23    54.84     4.41   -15.10     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.09P   10.33R    2.17  
Wycombe              34   41   -3      -4.14    32.23    -1.37    56.84     4.69    -3.74     0.00     0.00     2.42     0.55P    3.86R    0.68  
Portsmouth           35   41  -11      -8.73    16.86   -13.79    56.48     4.52   -10.37     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.41P    4.91R    0.71  
Bury                 33   40   +0      -7.74    19.29    -3.91    58.99     5.01     1.76     0.00     0.03     7.57     2.04P    1.88R    0.28  
Exeter               35   40   -6      -7.27    21.09    -5.17    54.84     4.46    -6.31     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.13P    8.38R    1.74  
Accrington_Stanley   34   40   -6      -1.30    44.59     1.33    55.00     4.61    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.17P    8.79R    1.50  
Northampton          34   34  -16      -6.49    22.47    -7.90    49.06     4.66   -17.75     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    54.02R   17.42  
Torquay              34   30  -21      -9.09    14.01   -10.59    43.76     4.57   -24.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.66R   72.97  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            34   76  +58       6.19    77.48    19.34   101.08     4.21    72.68    99.64   100.00    99.79P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    33   61  +28       6.03    76.32    13.56    83.62     4.70    35.66     0.32    98.53    32.19P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    35   58   -3      14.11    94.80     4.70    74.50     4.44    -0.79     0.00    55.29     6.98P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           36   57   +8      -1.82    41.89    -6.49    72.10     4.25    10.15     0.00    36.73     9.65P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         36   57   -2      11.42    90.33     3.96    68.97     4.02    -4.74     0.00    12.19     1.55P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        36   55   +8       3.62    66.14     5.06    69.43     4.14     9.09     0.00    16.23     2.95P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          36   54  +16       0.29    51.52     9.65    67.63     4.27    15.69     0.00    11.01     2.02P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        35   54   -2      10.53    88.33     5.39    67.19     4.36    -5.10     0.00     6.90     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   53  +15       0.16    50.63    -0.45    77.94     5.18    22.17     0.03    81.15    25.81P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    34   51   +0      -1.81    41.95    -9.87    70.13     4.68     3.98     0.00    22.92     5.39P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          34   49   +5       3.69    66.48     7.21    64.31     4.59     3.09     0.00     2.83     0.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     32   48  +15      -3.08    35.44     3.32    69.90     5.09    18.90     0.00    26.14     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   48   +5      -0.16    49.51     0.67    65.45     4.86     4.21     0.00     5.85     1.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           36   48   -7       2.83    63.02     0.69    58.59     3.99   -12.66     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.14R    0.00  
Wrexham          35   47   +2      -8.87    15.27   -10.32    64.76     4.40     5.96     0.00     2.82     0.80P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     36   47   -3      -0.28    49.26     0.82    60.03     4.16    -4.03     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   29   46  +10       4.68    72.64     7.41    68.99     5.61     9.16     0.00    21.27     3.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         35   40  -13      -6.69    22.33   -10.53    54.43     4.23   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.78R    0.00  
Chester          35   39  -16       2.10    60.27     1.67    51.44     4.07   -20.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.76R    0.00  
Southport        35   37  -19      -2.33    39.76    -4.30    49.44     4.27   -23.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.66R    0.00  
Aldershot        34   33   +3     -11.20    10.27    -8.78    53.60     4.51     9.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.25R    0.00  
Dartford         36   33  -23      -7.92    18.00    -8.51    44.02     4.05   -27.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.66R    0.00  
Tamworth         34   32  -22      -3.69    33.06    -4.51    43.62     4.32   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.68R    0.00  
Hyde_United      36    9  -63     -18.14     0.39   -19.68    15.31     3.36   -77.81     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10