Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 9 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Cardiff 3 1 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          29   66  +34       8.06    86.34     5.22    84.63     3.64    43.80    53.67    85.29    96.32    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.09    65.48     8.20    78.49     4.05    47.52     8.61    27.50    67.77    95.20    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.62    77.44     0.46    76.96     4.07    30.60     3.48    13.87    42.79    89.96    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.43    50.78     6.53    82.55     4.12    58.21    34.23    73.21    90.92    99.30    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   53   +0       8.63    86.47    -6.18    67.54     3.95     3.20     0.00     0.04     0.90     5.68    69.55     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   48  +15      -5.07    24.42    -8.04    67.06     4.05    23.53     0.00     0.03     0.64     5.31    69.68     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.56    73.16     1.96    66.44     4.40    15.89     0.01     0.06     0.66     4.62    59.55     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.17    82.56     3.39    55.77     4.05    -4.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.41     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   42   +4       3.36    67.19     6.91    53.79     3.87     2.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.43    28.14     1.22    42.46     3.96    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.65R    0.05  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -1.93    40.57     2.40    42.47     3.92   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.66R    0.09  
Stoke            29   31  -14      -0.70    47.29    -1.43    42.44     3.84   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.66R    0.08  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.36    49.15     7.93    39.99     3.91   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.86R    0.32  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.62    18.86     1.55    41.93     4.11    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.70R    0.12  
Norwich          29   29  -22      -1.09    45.13    -5.83    36.85     3.52   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.14R    3.41  
Crystal_Palace   28   27  -19       2.08    63.14     2.65    34.86     3.62   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.83R   10.75  
West_Brom        28   25  -11      -9.04    11.05    -2.98    37.43     4.03   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.94R    3.03  
Cardiff          29   25  -28      -1.08    45.38    -4.67    32.83     3.54   -35.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.34R   25.05  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.07    24.11    -5.69    36.55     4.18   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.20R    5.81  
Fulham           29   21  -36      -6.70    17.75   -13.60    30.98     3.75   -40.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.02R   51.29  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 March 2014, Blackburn 1 2 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.04    95.52     7.50    96.93     4.73    37.92    86.10    98.84   100.00    99.11P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         34   69  +27      12.20    92.45    11.75    88.87     4.66    32.02    13.01    81.33    99.96    86.03P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           34   61  +17       8.85    84.57     8.63    80.21     4.73    21.15     0.29     7.64    93.51    25.73P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             33   60  +14       6.12    76.35     1.47    81.10     4.78    18.87     0.56     9.81    94.87    33.86P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   34   55  +14       3.09    64.01     6.04    73.84     4.62    17.59     0.00     0.53    61.09    13.88P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         34   52  +13      -3.63    34.12    -0.64    71.68     4.77    17.92     0.00     0.30    42.47    11.83P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.58    47.24    -1.82    74.87     5.09    16.56     0.04     1.51    66.43    19.85P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        33   50   +7      -0.48    47.92    -0.98    69.79     4.78     9.94     0.00     0.04    24.13     6.02P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         34   48   +5       2.00    59.60     5.78    64.22     4.58     4.77     0.00     0.00     3.75     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   46   -2       0.86    54.47    -1.91    64.01     4.86    -1.57     0.00     0.00     3.27     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.53    22.08    -0.47    65.54     4.88    13.13     0.00     0.00     7.91     1.94P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   44   +0       0.07    50.84     2.10    62.16     4.85     0.33     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   34   43   +6      -4.52    30.16     4.48    59.88     4.58     6.78     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Huddersfield    34   43   -1      -0.07    50.31     4.47    57.47     4.59    -4.15     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   42   -8       3.75    67.91     3.67    57.69     4.92   -11.22     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.23R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       33   39   -1      -3.82    32.78     2.20    55.22     4.77    -3.28     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.59R    0.01  
Bolton          34   39   -4      -9.13    14.92    -6.11    56.84     4.74    -1.93     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    0.40R    0.01  
Birmingham      34   36   -5     -10.37    11.13    -4.67    52.27     4.68    -5.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.22R    0.19  
Blackpool       34   35  -20      -6.08    24.03   -11.96    48.99     4.41   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.14R    1.41  
Doncaster       34   33  -23      -0.86    47.09    -3.92    43.88     4.24   -31.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.03R   13.03  
Millwall        34   31  -29      -4.07    31.49   -11.45    43.75     4.35   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.39R   15.09  
Yeovil          33   29  -18      -3.18    35.81     2.17    41.71     4.49   -25.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.11R   26.42  
Barnsley        33   29  -25      -4.97    27.51    -7.34    40.81     4.46   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.26R   38.24  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.45    13.57    -9.00    47.39     5.41   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.51R    5.59  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Brentford 2 0 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   33   73  +40       5.98    75.94     7.22    98.57     4.75    51.71    79.82    95.39   100.00    97.39P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   35   71  +35      10.64    88.41    16.43    89.54     4.45    40.20     7.14    39.31    99.99    58.54P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   70  +25      13.06    93.66     7.65    91.74     4.94    30.80    12.49    57.79   100.00    70.75P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         35   67  +16      13.22    93.12     7.40    84.58     4.45    19.69     0.49     6.68    99.82    28.75P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       34   62  +21      11.16    88.80    14.90    78.61     4.79    20.96     0.06     0.77    95.39    17.57P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    34   55   +9      -0.63    46.86    -4.70    75.20     4.76    14.91     0.00     0.06    85.34    22.49P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         35   49   +3      -5.18    28.34    -6.19    65.07     4.58     4.42     0.00     0.00     6.83     1.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         35   47   +5      -8.78    16.30    -6.56    63.66     4.56     7.32     0.00     0.00     3.86     1.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         35   47   +1      -0.65    47.55     1.28    63.80     4.50     3.54     0.00     0.00     3.43     0.65P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale       34   46   -7       4.44    69.52     1.53    60.05     4.72   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.16P    0.58R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd       33   44   -2      -5.48    26.38    -8.23    62.72     4.90    -0.49     0.00     0.00     2.66     0.68P    0.14R    0.00  
Coventry        34   41   +3       0.70    53.30    -2.17    58.22     4.77     3.98     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.12P    1.66R    0.05  
Bradford        34   41   +2       0.08    51.01    10.45    55.18     4.61    -1.47     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    5.66R    0.20  
Gillingham      35   41  -13       0.98    55.16    -0.34    53.26     4.33   -17.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.94R    0.84  
Colchester      33   39   -3      -1.57    43.34     3.93    55.33     4.80    -5.32     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    7.05R    0.45  
Crawley_Town    30   39   -4       1.17    56.34     1.08    59.38     5.46    -6.21     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.17P    2.10R    0.14  
Bristol_City    35   38   -6     -10.79    12.35    -6.56    53.65     4.61    -5.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   11.26R    0.98  
Oldham          35   38  -11      -2.51    39.13     0.17    51.33     4.45   -13.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.95R    2.91  
Carlisle        34   37  -18      -0.82    47.05    -3.63    49.76     4.46   -24.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.56R    7.17  
Tranmere        34   36  -19      -4.48    30.86    -9.37    51.03     4.64   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.34R    4.43  
Stevenage       34   35  -18      -3.64    34.20    -5.76    48.24     4.53   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.85R   12.10  
Crewe           35   35  -27      -0.19    50.05    -5.40    46.52     4.31   -32.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.92R   23.97  
Shrewsbury      34   32  -13      -7.34    19.32    -2.52    46.47     4.53   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.87R   20.36  
Notts_County    35   31  -19     -11.91     8.62   -10.62    45.74     4.53   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.06R   26.40  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         35   62  +23       1.73    57.46     5.33    81.31     4.43    29.12    39.81    88.22    99.93    92.25P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           35   61  +19       0.71    52.93     0.93    80.02     4.52    24.68    26.05    81.64    99.81    87.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             34   61  +17       7.24    79.05     6.47    80.61     4.78    21.60    29.65    82.76    99.79    87.37P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   59   +5       9.84    86.39     3.03    73.76     4.44     4.64     2.42    21.29    93.74    36.42P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   57  +10       6.55    76.49     6.21    71.98     4.50     9.95     1.22    13.50    88.60    30.54P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   55  +14       1.60    57.22     6.01    70.85     4.46    15.22     0.81    10.15    85.03    30.81P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             35   50   +8      -3.55    34.70    -0.27    66.57     4.46    10.21     0.04     1.89    53.46    16.91P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             34   48   +1       2.89    63.43     2.32    63.26     4.64    -0.34     0.01     0.35    21.84     4.85P    0.07R    0.00  
York                 35   46   +3       0.86    54.55     6.15    60.39     4.39     2.15     0.00     0.03     8.61     1.74P    0.31R    0.03  
Hartlepool           35   45   +0      -5.57    27.04    -4.13    61.08     4.51     1.58     0.00     0.05    11.72     3.18P    0.26R    0.02  
Newport_County       33   44   +0       6.06    76.04    10.58    59.61     4.92    -3.19     0.00     0.06     7.86     1.29P    1.15R    0.16  
Cheltenham           34   43   -6      -2.61    38.68    -4.96    58.76     4.66    -6.85     0.00     0.00     4.76     1.07P    1.71R    0.28  
Morecambe            34   43  -10       0.95    54.98    -3.72    57.76     4.61   -12.36     0.00     0.01     2.80     0.49P    3.24R    0.45  
Bristol_Rovers       34   42   -1      -2.56    38.97     1.34    57.96     4.64    -1.44     0.00     0.01     3.93     0.90P    2.14R    0.30  
Dag_&_Red            34   42   -2      -1.74    42.49     1.77    57.86     4.70    -2.69     0.00     0.00     3.65     0.75P    2.56R    0.46  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   42   -6       1.07    55.51     3.64    55.35     4.41    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.12P    6.94R    1.04  
Mansfield            35   42  -12       2.98    64.15     0.88    54.89     4.41   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.07P   10.14R    2.06  
Wycombe              34   41   -3      -4.16    32.28    -1.40    56.86     4.66    -3.75     0.00     0.01     2.41     0.57P    3.78R    0.71  
Portsmouth           35   41  -11      -8.92    16.38   -14.06    56.56     4.53   -10.26     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.44P    4.70R    0.71  
Bury                 33   40   +0      -7.76    18.92    -3.89    59.00     5.02     1.76     0.00     0.03     7.63     2.10P    1.96R    0.33  
Exeter               35   40   -6      -7.03    21.85    -4.84    54.78     4.46    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.13P    8.53R    1.69  
Accrington_Stanley   34   40   -6      -1.28    44.77     1.36    55.01     4.62    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.15P    8.73R    1.43  
Northampton          34   34  -16      -6.63    21.90    -8.05    49.05     4.66   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    54.39R   17.82  
Torquay              34   30  -21      -9.22    13.86   -10.70    43.83     4.54   -24.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.40R   72.50  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            34   76  +58       6.25    77.82    19.57   101.02     4.23    72.59    99.66   100.00    99.82P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    33   61  +28       6.41    77.82    14.12    83.53     4.69    35.44     0.30    98.45    31.57P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    35   58   -3      14.14    94.74     4.87    74.47     4.44    -0.84     0.00    55.14     7.08P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           36   57   +8      -1.62    42.82    -6.18    72.03     4.22    10.06     0.00    36.29     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         36   57   -2      11.34    90.25     3.84    69.01     4.04    -4.67     0.00    12.40     1.67P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        36   55   +8       3.39    65.04     4.67    69.53     4.14     9.23     0.00    16.98     3.09P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          36   54  +16       0.40    51.85     9.77    67.65     4.26    15.72     0.00    10.79     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        35   54   -2      10.49    87.92     5.35    67.22     4.37    -5.01     0.00     7.17     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   53  +15       0.15    50.46    -0.51    77.99     5.19    22.22     0.04    81.55    26.50P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    34   51   +0      -1.77    41.68    -9.85    70.14     4.66     4.00     0.00    22.62     5.36P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          34   49   +5       3.66    66.60     7.19    64.31     4.59     3.08     0.00     2.84     0.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     32   48  +15      -3.21    35.02     3.10    69.90     5.09    18.89     0.00    26.26     6.56P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   48   +5      -0.14    49.72     0.71    65.41     4.85     4.19     0.00     5.70     1.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           36   48   -7       2.76    62.92     0.51    58.64     3.99   -12.61     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.12R    0.00  
Wrexham          35   47   +2      -8.73    15.62   -10.16    64.71     4.39     5.89     0.00     2.65     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     36   47   -3      -0.21    49.34     0.91    60.01     4.17    -4.06     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   29   46  +10       4.72    72.56     7.49    68.93     5.59     9.10     0.00    20.99     3.65P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford         35   40  -13      -6.77    22.30   -10.69    54.44     4.23   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.84R    0.00  
Chester          35   39  -16       2.14    60.69     1.64    51.42     4.09   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.81R    0.00  
Southport        35   37  -19      -2.44    39.43    -4.48    49.46     4.26   -23.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.36R    0.00  
Aldershot        34   33   +3     -11.31     9.93    -8.92    53.56     4.54     9.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.55R    0.00  
Dartford         36   33  -23      -7.85    17.91    -8.42    44.04     4.03   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.49R    0.00  
Tamworth         34   32  -22      -3.73    32.83    -4.64    43.62     4.29   -29.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.77R    0.00  
Hyde_United      36    9  -63     -18.21     0.35   -19.89    15.37     3.37   -77.70     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10