Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 8 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Cardiff 3 1 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          29   66  +34       8.19    86.82     5.37    84.61     3.65    43.78    53.37    85.10    96.41    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.16    65.93     8.32    78.45     4.06    47.43     8.53    27.02    67.11    95.20    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.52    77.13     0.36    76.98     4.09    30.66     3.57    14.18    43.20    89.70    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.40    50.94     6.45    82.59     4.11    58.27    34.52    73.59    90.97    99.27    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   53   +0       8.48    86.43    -6.39    67.59     3.95     3.26     0.00     0.04     0.91     5.83    70.16     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   48  +15      -5.18    23.83    -8.29    67.11     4.07    23.59     0.00     0.03     0.74     5.64    69.90     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.62    73.24     2.05    66.39     4.38    15.82     0.00     0.05     0.66     4.45    58.78     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.29    83.32     3.65    55.76     4.06    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   42   +4       3.53    68.07     7.12    53.72     3.84     2.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.49    27.88     1.08    42.47     3.98    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.62R    0.05  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.06    39.97     2.18    42.52     3.93   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.52R    0.06  
Stoke            29   31  -14      -0.66    47.35    -1.39    42.46     3.85   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.70R    0.06  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.18    50.32     8.19    39.92     3.95   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.36R    0.36  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.57    19.16     1.69    41.93     4.11    -5.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.70R    0.13  
Norwich          29   29  -22      -1.21    44.61    -6.01    36.91     3.54   -29.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.46R    3.60  
Crystal_Palace   28   27  -19       2.07    63.19     2.73    34.84     3.61   -28.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.01R   11.06  
West_Brom        28   25  -11      -9.02    10.98    -2.94    37.41     4.04   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.22R    3.24  
Cardiff          29   25  -28      -1.12    45.08    -4.74    32.84     3.50   -35.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.39R   24.52  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.20    23.64    -5.88    36.60     4.18   -23.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.75R    5.72  
Fulham           29   21  -36      -6.65    18.04   -13.52    30.98     3.73   -40.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.26R   51.19  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Barnsley 1 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.19    95.63     7.82    96.91     4.77    37.83    90.21    99.02   100.00    99.30P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   66  +26      10.93    90.31    11.37    87.08     4.87    30.79     8.75    72.50    99.73    79.65P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           34   61  +17       8.93    84.58     8.69    80.19     4.75    21.12     0.39    11.17    93.34    28.50P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             33   60  +14       6.39    77.14     1.88    80.96     4.81    18.67     0.61    13.60    94.32    35.94P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   34   55  +14       3.42    65.43     6.54    73.74     4.60    17.46     0.01     0.95    59.63    13.91P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         34   52  +13      -3.81    33.31    -0.98    71.74     4.72    17.96     0.00     0.40    42.58    12.04P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.62    47.20    -1.86    74.86     5.09    16.59     0.04     2.23    65.87    20.42P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        33   50   +7      -0.38    48.39    -0.83    69.72     4.75     9.86     0.00     0.09    23.82     5.86P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         34   48   +5       2.13    60.15     5.91    64.18     4.60     4.72     0.00     0.00     3.70     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   46   -1       1.76    58.94    -1.61    65.47     5.08    -0.38     0.00     0.01     6.43     1.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.50    22.52    -0.41    65.54     4.90    13.15     0.00     0.01     7.80     2.06P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   44   +0      -0.05    50.13     1.95    62.25     4.86     0.45     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   34   43   +6      -4.61    29.95     4.36    59.99     4.60     6.90     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.11P    0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield    34   43   -1      -0.14    49.91     4.33    57.47     4.59    -4.15     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.10R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   42   -8       3.68    67.39     3.55    57.66     4.96   -11.26     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.24R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   39   -1      -3.86    32.60     2.17    55.25     4.76    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.64R    0.03  
Bolton          34   39   -4      -9.06    14.95    -5.99    56.82     4.72    -1.99     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.34R    0.02  
Birmingham      34   36   -5     -10.39    11.22    -4.70    52.30     4.69    -5.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.08R    0.17  
Blackpool       34   35  -20      -6.24    23.34   -12.12    49.07     4.43   -23.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.79R    1.28  
Doncaster       34   33  -23      -0.88    46.77    -3.97    43.88     4.27   -31.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.45R   13.26  
Millwall        34   31  -29      -4.21    31.08   -11.60    43.80     4.38   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.87R   15.16  
Yeovil          33   29  -18      -3.22    35.54     2.04    41.72     4.46   -25.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.25R   26.56  
Barnsley        33   29  -25      -5.05    26.75    -7.56    40.86     4.44   -34.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.36R   38.06  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.39    14.00    -8.98    47.36     5.37   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.84R    5.46  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Brentford 2 0 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   33   73  +40       6.01    76.42     7.27    98.52     4.74    51.62    80.36    95.46   100.00    97.54P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   35   71  +35      10.74    88.61    16.59    89.51     4.42    40.18     7.01    39.36   100.00    58.55P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   70  +25      13.24    94.32     7.90    91.64     4.91    30.65    12.06    57.54   100.00    70.50P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         35   67  +16      13.17    92.97     7.36    84.58     4.49    19.67     0.52     6.73    99.80    28.83P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       34   62  +21      10.97    88.47    14.56    78.70     4.77    21.12     0.05     0.83    95.60    17.66P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    34   55   +9      -0.57    47.27    -4.66    75.21     4.76    14.93     0.00     0.08    85.27    22.61P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         35   49   +3      -5.11    28.33    -6.07    65.01     4.53     4.34     0.00     0.00     6.59     1.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         35   47   +5      -8.97    15.95    -6.86    63.69     4.56     7.36     0.00     0.00     3.81     0.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall         35   47   +1      -0.59    47.85     1.39    63.81     4.50     3.53     0.00     0.00     3.48     0.72P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       34   46   -7       4.67    70.54     1.90    59.95     4.73   -11.30     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.11P    0.61R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd       33   44   -2      -5.39    26.70    -8.14    62.75     4.92    -0.46     0.00     0.00     2.81     0.69P    0.12R    0.00  
Coventry        34   41   +3       0.52    52.41    -2.39    58.37     4.76     4.19     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.11P    1.47R    0.03  
Bradford        34   41   +2      -0.10    50.25    10.21    55.20     4.67    -1.47     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    5.84R    0.24  
Gillingham      35   41  -13       1.22    56.34     0.05    53.20     4.37   -17.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.49R    0.94  
Colchester      33   39   -3      -1.74    42.54     3.62    55.40     4.82    -5.21     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    6.85R    0.43  
Crawley_Town    30   39   -4       0.92    55.24     0.71    59.48     5.44    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.19P    1.97R    0.12  
Bristol_City    35   38   -6     -10.90    12.03    -6.68    53.67     4.60    -5.27     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   11.29R    0.87  
Oldham          35   38  -11      -2.40    39.46     0.34    51.25     4.41   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.32R    2.86  
Carlisle        34   37  -18      -0.76    47.36    -3.44    49.74     4.47   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.27R    7.37  
Tranmere        34   36  -19      -4.54    30.57    -9.39    51.01     4.64   -21.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.54R    4.45  
Stevenage       34   35  -18      -3.61    34.32    -5.72    48.26     4.51   -22.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.21R   11.58  
Crewe           35   35  -27      -0.39    49.44    -5.70    46.57     4.31   -32.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.88R   23.65  
Shrewsbury      34   32  -13      -7.29    19.55    -2.42    46.46     4.54   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.46R   20.33  
Notts_County    35   31  -19     -11.76     8.73   -10.44    45.66     4.51   -19.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.63R   27.12  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         35   62  +23       1.79    57.57     5.43    81.27     4.45    29.07    39.61    88.03    99.94    92.15P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           35   61  +19       0.68    52.63     0.92    80.01     4.53    24.65    26.12    81.46    99.81    87.63P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             34   61  +17       7.21    79.02     6.42    80.62     4.81    21.64    29.89    82.88    99.78    87.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   59   +5      10.04    86.91     3.25    73.78     4.43     4.68     2.32    21.44    94.01    36.54P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   57  +10       6.35    76.36     5.88    72.06     4.48    10.07     1.23    13.81    88.93    31.05P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   55  +14       1.59    57.29     5.97    70.82     4.44    15.17     0.74    10.00    85.13    30.59P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             35   50   +8      -3.63    34.38    -0.36    66.58     4.46    10.20     0.07     1.86    53.31    16.66P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             34   48   +1       2.99    63.90     2.54    63.25     4.62    -0.39     0.00     0.30    21.79     4.71P    0.05R    0.00  
York                 35   46   +3       0.86    54.61     6.18    60.36     4.38     2.11     0.00     0.05     8.39     1.74P    0.33R    0.03  
Hartlepool           35   45   +0      -5.48    27.36    -3.99    61.05     4.48     1.58     0.00     0.03    11.30     3.00P    0.25R    0.01  
Newport_County       33   44   +0       5.91    75.78    10.40    59.69     4.94    -3.10     0.00     0.07     8.12     1.38P    1.18R    0.15  
Cheltenham           34   43   -6      -2.75    38.16    -5.23    58.82     4.71    -6.77     0.00     0.02     4.95     1.20P    1.70R    0.25  
Morecambe            34   43  -10       1.00    55.22    -3.59    57.73     4.63   -12.41     0.00     0.00     2.81     0.53P    3.43R    0.51  
Bristol_Rovers       34   42   -1      -2.51    39.15     1.40    57.99     4.65    -1.43     0.00     0.01     3.93     0.91P    1.96R    0.31  
Dag_&_Red            34   42   -2      -1.96    41.46     1.55    57.90     4.70    -2.64     0.00     0.01     3.62     0.80P    2.63R    0.37  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   42   -6       1.06    55.68     3.62    55.34     4.38    -8.25     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.13P    6.82R    0.90  
Mansfield            35   42  -12       3.16    64.92     1.15    54.85     4.43   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P   10.30R    2.11  
Wycombe              34   41   -3      -4.15    32.06    -1.41    56.81     4.68    -3.80     0.00     0.01     2.24     0.53P    3.96R    0.74  
Portsmouth           35   41  -11      -8.85    16.46   -13.98    56.51     4.53   -10.33     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.41P    4.89R    0.69  
Bury                 33   40   +0      -7.80    19.00    -3.96    59.03     5.00     1.82     0.00     0.03     7.61     2.21P    1.81R    0.31  
Exeter               35   40   -6      -7.27    20.96    -5.18    54.84     4.46    -6.30     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.13P    8.08R    1.68  
Accrington_Stanley   34   40   -6      -1.25    45.11     1.40    55.02     4.62    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.19P    8.55R    1.44  
Northampton          34   34  -16      -6.46    22.46    -7.92    49.05     4.64   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.29R   17.52  
Torquay              34   30  -21      -9.08    14.27   -10.49    43.74     4.56   -24.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.77R   72.97  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 March 2014, Alfreton_Town 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            34   76  +58       6.16    77.72    19.33   101.06     4.22    72.65    99.67   100.00    99.82P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    33   61  +28       6.36    77.30    14.00    83.55     4.69    35.53     0.32    98.50    31.57P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    35   58   -3      14.07    94.64     4.69    74.54     4.46    -0.76     0.00    55.41     7.14P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           36   57   +8      -1.77    42.46    -6.37    72.09     4.21    10.12     0.00    36.36     9.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         36   57   -2      11.33    90.28     3.80    69.01     4.03    -4.69     0.00    12.30     1.51P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        36   55   +8       3.61    66.12     5.03    69.41     4.15     9.02     0.00    16.21     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          36   54  +16       0.41    51.83     9.92    67.59     4.25    15.62     0.00    10.57     2.04P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        35   54   -2      10.43    87.94     5.30    67.23     4.38    -5.00     0.00     7.17     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   53  +15       0.03    50.00    -0.67    78.05     5.15    22.34     0.01    81.99    26.52P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    34   51   +0      -1.80    41.82    -9.84    70.10     4.67     3.95     0.00    22.27     5.15P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          34   49   +5       3.52    65.71     7.00    64.35     4.61     3.13     0.00     2.85     0.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     32   48  +15      -3.26    34.76     3.01    69.95     5.10    19.03     0.00    26.71     6.67P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   48   +5      -0.38    48.38     0.34    65.56     4.89     4.42     0.00     5.97     1.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           36   48   -7       2.74    62.55     0.42    58.64     3.98   -12.62     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.10R    0.00  
Wrexham          35   47   +2      -8.44    16.53    -9.77    64.63     4.41     5.75     0.00     2.71     0.79P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     36   47   -3      -0.13    50.15     1.03    59.98     4.16    -4.11     0.00     0.11     0.03P    0.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   29   46  +10       4.72    72.73     7.44    68.94     5.63     9.10     0.00    20.82     3.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Hereford         35   40  -13      -6.73    22.23   -10.61    54.39     4.22   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.85R    0.00  
Chester          35   39  -16       2.22    61.17     1.83    51.41     4.09   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.07R    0.00  
Southport        35   37  -19      -2.30    40.05    -4.20    49.42     4.28   -23.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.49R    0.00  
Aldershot        34   33   +3     -11.27     9.94    -8.90    53.59     4.52     9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.30R    0.00  
Dartford         36   33  -23      -7.87    17.79    -8.51    44.02     4.02   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.37R    0.00  
Tamworth         34   32  -22      -3.65    33.18    -4.50    43.61     4.29   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.77R    0.00  
Hyde_United      36    9  -63     -18.21     0.31   -19.77    15.35     3.34   -77.77     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10