Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 7 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 March 2014, Aston_Villa 4 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          28   63  +30       7.94    86.56     3.84    83.46     3.93    40.38    44.56    77.85    93.20    99.51   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.14    65.92     8.32    78.51     4.06    47.55    10.54    30.99    68.44    94.85    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.55    77.15     0.45    76.95     4.08    30.59     4.39    16.06    43.89    88.94    99.58     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.51    51.47     6.64    82.56     4.11    58.17    40.48    74.79    91.38    99.19    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   53   +4       8.33    86.17    -4.87    68.60     4.14     6.68     0.03     0.25     2.02     9.78    79.79     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.64    73.39     2.03    66.44     4.40    15.92     0.00     0.04     0.68     4.56    61.58     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.79    20.93    -9.55    65.70     4.33    20.87     0.00     0.02     0.39     3.16    57.48     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.11    82.55     3.29    55.83     4.04    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.38     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   39   +3       2.30    62.45     6.75    52.31     4.10     1.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.43    28.17     1.14    42.42     3.98    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.19R    0.03  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.01    40.10     2.26    42.46     3.93   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.02R    0.06  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.27    49.36     7.97    39.94     3.92   -10.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.53R    0.35  
Stoke            28   30  -14      -0.25    49.40    -1.27    42.65     4.08   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.54R    0.12  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.62    18.91     1.51    41.96     4.13    -5.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.32R    0.16  
Norwich          28   28  -22      -0.74    46.87    -5.83    37.27     3.79   -29.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.85R    3.18  
Crystal_Palace   27   27  -18       3.08    68.62     3.31    36.02     3.88   -27.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.27R    6.85  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.75    11.57    -1.78    38.64     4.28   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.51R    1.97  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.04    24.53    -5.71    36.52     4.17   -23.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.44R    5.90  
Cardiff          28   22  -30      -2.07    39.63    -5.79    31.05     3.74   -37.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.61R   47.60  
Fulham           28   21  -34      -5.85    20.61   -12.72    32.40     3.98   -38.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.72R   33.78  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Bolton 4 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.30    95.81     7.87    96.91     4.74    37.89    90.01    98.69   100.00    99.03P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   66  +26      10.92    90.59    11.30    87.02     4.84    30.71     8.26    66.71    99.67    75.33P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   61  +18      10.23    88.28     9.63    82.66     4.90    23.89     1.34    22.75    96.56    38.84P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             32   57  +12       5.54    74.62     0.96    79.06     5.03    16.35     0.31     7.05    85.84    28.35P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +15       4.25    68.83     6.72    75.65     4.83    19.27     0.03     2.17    69.56    17.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.49    47.52    -1.76    74.84     5.06    16.57     0.04     1.93    61.48    18.52P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         33   51  +13      -3.46    34.58    -0.96    71.79     4.97    17.57     0.00     0.50    38.76    11.17P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        32   49   +7      -0.09    49.61    -0.98    70.41     5.00    10.32     0.00     0.17    25.71     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         33   48   +7       2.57    62.01     6.59    65.46     4.80     6.64     0.00     0.01     5.65     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   46   -1       1.71    58.45    -1.75    65.53     5.07    -0.31     0.00     0.02     5.44     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.43    22.66    -0.36    65.46     4.89    13.03     0.00     0.01     6.17     1.62P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   44   +4       0.15    51.20     4.08    64.41     5.08     5.71     0.00     0.01     4.43     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    33   43   +1       0.61    53.39     5.36    59.13     4.81    -1.69     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   40   +4      -5.53    25.86     3.40    58.54     4.84     5.13     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   39   +1      -3.05    35.83     3.33    56.98     5.00    -0.70     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.12R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   39   -9       2.25    61.55     3.07    55.47     5.13   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.50R    0.01  
Birmingham      33   36   -3      -9.84    12.01    -3.89    54.03     4.89    -2.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.72R    0.01  
Bolton          33   36   -8      -9.49    12.99    -8.19    54.34     4.90    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.83R    0.02  
Blackpool       33   35  -19      -5.07    27.82   -11.36    50.98     4.67   -21.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.88R    0.22  
Doncaster       33   30  -25      -1.86    41.95    -4.84    41.87     4.46   -34.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.83R   14.01  
Millwall        33   28  -30      -5.78    23.77   -12.44    41.08     4.49   -37.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.63R   18.97  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.42    13.62    -9.03    47.40     5.35   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.12R    2.39  
Yeovil          32   26  -20      -4.38    29.48     1.02    39.83     4.69   -28.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.44R   25.80  
Barnsley        32   26  -26      -6.39    20.99    -7.77    38.73     4.67   -36.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.87R   38.56  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 5 March 2014, Coventry 2 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   32   70  +37       5.54    74.75     6.17    96.98     4.95    48.61    72.74    92.30   100.00    95.65P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   34   70  +35      11.23    90.10    16.63    90.24     4.70    40.73    14.03    51.84   100.00    66.86P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   67  +23      12.56    93.48     7.31    90.47     5.12    29.34    12.66    49.74    99.99    64.89P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   64  +14      12.54    92.14     6.80    82.94     4.71    17.63     0.49     4.96    99.09    26.95P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       34   62  +21      11.08    88.51    14.77    78.65     4.75    21.07     0.08     1.09    94.60    18.17P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    33   52   +7      -1.28    44.12    -5.11    74.34     4.98    14.20     0.00     0.08    77.49    20.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         34   47   +6      -7.84    18.78    -6.25    65.53     4.78     9.03     0.00     0.00     9.48     2.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         34   47   +4      -0.48    48.12     2.51    65.15     4.73     6.48     0.00     0.00     7.50     1.65P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         34   46   +2      -6.48    23.01    -6.70    63.08     4.76     2.88     0.00     0.00     3.91     0.93P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   44   -2      -5.62    25.66    -8.45    62.79     4.86    -0.37     0.00     0.00     3.08     0.72P    0.13R    0.00  
Port_Vale       33   43   -8       3.58    66.38     1.69    58.50     4.94   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.07P    2.07R    0.06  
Coventry        33   41   +4       1.61    57.35    -1.90    59.94     5.03     5.54     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.34P    0.86R    0.02  
Bradford        33   41   +4       0.43    52.60    10.95    56.02     4.82    -0.34     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.06P    4.49R    0.16  
Crawley_Town    29   39   -3       2.07    60.64     1.43    61.02     5.70    -4.80     0.00     0.00     2.40     0.42P    1.42R    0.08  
Oldham          34   38   -9      -1.92    41.94     0.94    52.61     4.64   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.61R    1.61  
Gillingham      34   38  -14      -0.30    49.42    -0.67    51.50     4.58   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.92R    2.97  
Carlisle        33   37  -17       0.06    51.28    -3.39    50.91     4.69   -23.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   32.62R    4.89  
Colchester      32   36   -4      -2.98    36.47     3.23    53.47     5.05    -6.64     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   14.81R    1.72  
Tranmere        33   36  -17      -3.84    33.24    -8.58    52.57     4.90   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   21.24R    2.77  
Bristol_City    34   35   -7     -11.94     9.28    -6.87    51.95     4.84    -6.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.06R    2.87  
Crewe           34   35  -25       0.35    52.76    -5.12    47.23     4.46   -31.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.88R   19.22  
Shrewsbury      33   32  -12      -6.17    23.26    -1.94    47.84     4.75   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.83R   13.60  
Stevenage       33   32  -20      -4.38    30.68    -6.54    46.42     4.72   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.42R   23.33  
Notts_County    34   30  -19     -11.79     8.66   -10.88    45.72     4.74   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.57R   26.70  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 7 March 2014, Bury 0 0 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         34   62  +25       2.73    62.10     6.82    83.29     4.67    31.99    49.59    93.39    99.97    95.68P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             34   61  +17       7.31    79.38     6.55    80.71     4.79    21.80    21.82    82.24    99.73    87.17P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           34   60  +19       1.30    55.29     1.23    81.10     4.76    25.70    25.98    84.57    99.79    89.80P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   56   +4       8.67    84.03     2.63    71.61     4.65     2.98     0.75    10.22    81.86    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15       2.61    61.91     6.53    72.62     4.65    16.79     1.28    16.97    89.58    37.19P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   54   +9       5.23    72.71     5.67    70.40     4.70     9.00     0.44     7.58    77.31    23.36P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   50   +9      -2.41    39.46     0.41    68.24     4.71    11.63     0.12     3.89    63.39    21.31P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             33   48   +2       3.73    67.46     2.63    64.60     4.83     0.67     0.02     0.69    28.92     6.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool           34   45   +1      -4.79    29.71    -3.90    62.68     4.72     2.92     0.00     0.18    18.24     5.10P    0.10R    0.01  
Newport_County       32   44   +1       6.96    79.59    10.94    61.09     5.16    -2.07     0.00     0.19    12.18     2.16P    0.54R    0.11  
York                 34   43   +2      -0.30    49.50     5.82    58.55     4.59     0.87     0.00     0.02     4.12     0.88P    1.10R    0.20  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   42   -5       1.98    59.90     4.04    56.90     4.61    -6.99     0.00     0.00     1.84     0.29P    3.09R    0.58  
Cheltenham           33   42   -6      -2.47    39.19    -5.26    58.88     4.91    -7.23     0.00     0.02     4.99     1.20P    1.60R    0.32  
Dag_&_Red            33   41   -2      -1.52    43.44     1.56    58.07     4.90    -2.90     0.00     0.01     3.78     0.81P    2.21R    0.49  
Bury                 33   40   +0      -7.84    18.95    -4.00    59.00     4.97     1.77     0.00     0.03     6.38     1.88P    1.38R    0.32  
Portsmouth           34   40  -11      -8.31    17.74   -13.66    57.16     4.79    -9.95     0.00     0.00     2.19     0.59P    3.42R    0.77  
Morecambe            33   40  -11      -0.45    48.46    -4.36    55.78     4.83   -13.86     0.00     0.01     1.24     0.25P    6.99R    1.82  
Bristol_Rovers       33   39   -2      -3.63    33.88     1.04    56.27     4.87    -2.51     0.00     0.00     2.01     0.46P    4.36R    1.12  
Exeter               34   39   -6      -6.90    21.68    -5.17    55.33     4.68    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.21P    6.17R    1.60  
Mansfield            34   39  -13       2.07    60.64     0.93    53.15     4.60   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   16.60R    5.47  
Wycombe              33   38   -4      -5.45    26.45    -1.94    55.06     4.88    -4.95     0.00     0.00     1.13     0.25P    7.11R    2.09  
Accrington_Stanley   33   37   -8      -2.42    39.44     0.01    52.67     4.76   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P   17.07R    5.11  
Northampton          33   33  -16      -6.28    22.81    -8.17    48.73     4.82   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   50.52R   22.56  
Torquay              33   30  -20      -8.34    15.92   -10.36    45.20     4.78   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.74R   57.40  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 7 March 2014, Dartford 0 1 Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            33   75  +58       6.82    80.39    19.35   101.98     4.49    73.59    99.37   100.00    99.66P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    32   61  +29       7.25    81.09    14.37    84.78     4.92    36.24     0.57    98.82    31.94P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           35   57   +9      -0.39    48.05    -5.43    74.14     4.42    12.12     0.00    53.32    14.13P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    34   57   -3      14.66    95.62     5.08    75.37     4.68    -0.04     0.00    60.36     7.48P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         35   54   -4      10.31    88.48     2.82    67.49     4.27    -6.57     0.00     6.96     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        34   53   -2      10.65    88.74     5.27    66.89     4.56    -6.16     0.00     6.12     0.78P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   52  +15       0.58    52.61    -0.42    78.28     5.40    22.10     0.05    80.89    25.61P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        35   52   +7       2.01    59.12     4.18    67.13     4.34     7.03     0.00     7.09     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          35   51  +12       0.44    52.01     8.77    66.02     4.53    11.68     0.00     5.89     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    33   50   +0      -1.57    42.69   -10.06    69.99     4.89     3.17     0.00    20.62     4.78P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          33   49   +7       3.88    67.53     7.46    65.84     4.82     5.40     0.00     5.83     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +5       0.17    51.09     0.66    65.91     5.12     4.39     0.00     7.13     1.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          34   46   +2      -8.05    16.87    -9.67    65.63     4.64     6.72     0.00     4.65     1.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   46   -3      -0.00    50.33     0.73    59.93     4.39    -4.84     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.12R    0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45  +14      -4.32    30.09     3.02    68.25     5.30    17.87     0.00    16.67     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   45  +10       5.22    75.22     7.65    69.97     5.82    10.10     0.00    25.44     4.69P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   45   -9       1.75    58.59    -0.42    57.42     4.25   -14.04     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.53R    0.00  
Hereford         34   39  -13      -6.59    22.24   -10.90    54.27     4.46   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.27R    0.00  
Chester          35   39  -16       2.05    60.25     1.63    51.40     4.07   -20.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.84R    0.00  
Southport        34   37  -17      -1.72    42.39    -3.45    50.53     4.51   -21.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.70R    0.00  
Aldershot        33   33   +4     -10.28    11.78    -8.54    55.55     4.73    11.56     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.17R    0.00  
Dartford         36   33  -23      -7.85    17.98    -8.28    44.02     4.03   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.46R    0.00  
Tamworth         33   29  -23      -5.24    25.79    -5.17    41.55     4.51   -31.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.91R    0.00  
Hyde_United      35    9  -59     -18.07     0.31   -18.65    16.56     3.66   -73.88     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10