Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 6 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 March 2014, Aston_Villa 4 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          28   63  +30       7.91    86.36     3.78    83.44     3.91    40.37    44.02    77.84    93.15    99.53    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.06    65.50     8.17    78.58     4.06    47.69    10.94    31.20    69.15    94.98    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.55    76.92     0.43    76.92     4.07    30.54     4.24    15.59    43.21    88.99    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.44    51.27     6.50    82.58     4.11    58.23    40.79    75.07    91.46    99.16    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   53   +4       8.40    86.49    -4.77    68.56     4.11     6.63     0.02     0.23     1.91     9.32    79.68     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.49    72.79     1.82    66.49     4.42    15.99     0.00     0.05     0.71     4.89    62.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.70    21.55    -9.39    65.62     4.35    20.77     0.00     0.02     0.40     3.13    56.95     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.41    83.53     3.72    55.75     4.06    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.60     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   39   +3       2.36    62.74     6.84    52.34     4.08     1.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.39    28.35     1.16    42.43     3.96    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.18R    0.04  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.11    39.31     2.10    42.51     3.94   -11.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.12R    0.04  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.28    49.51     8.02    39.92     3.92   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.75R    0.36  
Stoke            28   30  -14      -0.33    49.28    -1.41    42.67     4.09   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.63R    0.12  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.59    19.02     1.57    41.95     4.11    -5.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.30R    0.12  
Norwich          28   28  -22      -0.69    47.33    -5.72    37.27     3.82   -29.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.10R    3.28  
Crystal_Palace   27   27  -18       2.97    68.15     3.07    36.06     3.89   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.87R    6.62  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.68    11.76    -1.73    38.62     4.29   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.65R    2.00  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.20    23.84    -5.91    36.54     4.20   -23.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.36R    5.88  
Cardiff          28   22  -30      -1.94    40.27    -5.53    31.04     3.77   -37.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.42R   48.07  
Fulham           28   21  -34      -5.84    20.85   -12.71    32.40     3.98   -38.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.63R   33.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Bolton 4 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.35    95.90     7.96    96.91     4.74    37.88    89.92    98.75   100.00    99.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   66  +26      10.92    90.36    11.28    87.02     4.89    30.74     8.48    66.82    99.60    75.16P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   61  +18      10.24    88.33     9.61    82.63     4.88    23.84     1.21    22.46    96.49    38.52P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             32   57  +12       5.29    73.33     0.63    79.14     5.03    16.45     0.31     7.28    86.24    28.74P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +15       4.34    69.29     6.81    75.62     4.85    19.22     0.02     2.16    69.33    17.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.42    47.97    -1.63    74.83     5.06    16.57     0.04     1.86    61.37    18.47P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         33   51  +13      -3.41    34.59    -0.86    71.80     4.94    17.56     0.00     0.48    38.59    11.27P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        32   49   +7      -0.23    49.04    -1.11    70.42     4.98    10.35     0.00     0.14    25.82     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         33   48   +7       2.51    62.02     6.55    65.47     4.81     6.63     0.00     0.01     5.61     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   46   -1       1.74    58.63    -1.69    65.51     5.06    -0.36     0.00     0.01     5.36     1.09P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.68    21.75    -0.78    65.55     4.89    13.17     0.00     0.01     6.36     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   44   +4       0.21    51.31     4.13    64.47     5.08     5.79     0.00     0.00     4.51     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    33   43   +1       0.69    53.81     5.53    59.11     4.82    -1.74     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   40   +4      -5.56    25.68     3.34    58.49     4.86     5.11     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    0.06R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   39   +1      -3.14    35.57     3.29    57.00     5.03    -0.69     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.15R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   39   -9       2.22    61.26     3.01    55.50     5.08   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.49R    0.01  
Birmingham      33   36   -3      -9.65    12.46    -3.59    53.98     4.92    -2.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.88R    0.02  
Bolton          33   36   -8      -9.35    13.54    -7.97    54.31     4.96    -7.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.93R    0.04  
Blackpool       33   35  -19      -4.92    28.13   -11.14    50.89     4.66   -21.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.99R    0.23  
Doncaster       33   30  -25      -1.87    41.83    -4.82    41.86     4.49   -34.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.21R   14.25  
Millwall        33   28  -30      -5.68    24.39   -12.28    41.07     4.51   -37.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.17R   19.44  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.43    13.79    -9.01    47.43     5.41   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.45R    2.51  
Yeovil          32   26  -20      -4.48    29.30     0.82    39.86     4.69   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.29R   25.54  
Barnsley        32   26  -26      -6.52    20.63    -8.07    38.78     4.66   -36.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.36R   37.97  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 5 March 2014, Coventry 2 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   32   70  +37       5.51    74.82     6.11    96.93     4.99    48.56    72.21    92.13   100.00    95.51P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   34   70  +35      11.21    89.96    16.58    90.23     4.71    40.73    14.33    51.88   100.00    67.21P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   67  +23      12.58    93.35     7.36    90.47     5.10    29.34    12.86    49.82    99.98    65.16P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   64  +14      12.51    92.44     6.75    82.92     4.70    17.61     0.50     5.01    99.20    26.69P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       34   62  +21      11.17    88.94    14.86    78.60     4.79    21.01     0.09     1.08    94.24    17.92P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    33   52   +7      -1.07    45.00    -4.69    74.31     4.97    14.13     0.01     0.08    77.28    20.78P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         34   47   +6      -7.83    18.87    -6.30    65.53     4.78     9.06     0.00     0.00     9.43     2.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         34   47   +4      -0.58    47.82     2.35    65.17     4.73     6.57     0.00     0.00     7.73     1.57P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         34   46   +2      -6.56    23.03    -6.79    63.13     4.75     2.96     0.00     0.00     4.07     1.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   44   -2      -5.57    26.03    -8.41    62.79     4.91    -0.41     0.00     0.00     3.20     0.80P    0.11R    0.00  
Port_Vale       33   43   -8       3.64    66.83     1.80    58.47     4.97   -12.11     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.10P    2.05R    0.05  
Coventry        33   41   +4       1.74    57.81    -1.71    59.92     4.98     5.52     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.32P    0.85R    0.03  
Bradford        33   41   +4       0.32    52.28    10.79    56.03     4.82    -0.32     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    4.61R    0.17  
Crawley_Town    29   39   -3       1.97    60.02     1.28    61.08     5.68    -4.72     0.00     0.00     2.52     0.39P    1.23R    0.06  
Oldham          34   38   -9      -1.95    41.80     0.90    52.64     4.63   -11.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.35R    1.61  
Gillingham      34   38  -14      -0.12    50.16    -0.36    51.48     4.60   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.36R    3.02  
Carlisle        33   37  -17      -0.00    50.78    -3.48    50.89     4.69   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.71R    5.02  
Colchester      32   36   -4      -2.93    37.20     3.30    53.44     5.09    -6.71     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   15.44R    1.75  
Tranmere        33   36  -17      -3.94    32.57    -8.74    52.59     4.87   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.19R    2.61  
Bristol_City    34   35   -7     -11.93     9.36    -6.84    51.96     4.83    -6.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.07R    2.77  
Crewe           34   35  -25       0.38    53.20    -5.09    47.21     4.51   -31.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.01R   19.85  
Shrewsbury      33   32  -12      -6.16    23.26    -1.94    47.81     4.75   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.93R   13.73  
Stevenage       33   32  -20      -4.58    29.67    -6.85    46.56     4.75   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.15R   22.61  
Notts_County    34   30  -19     -11.75     8.33   -10.87    45.71     4.71   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.86R   26.72  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 March 2014, Newport_County 0 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         34   62  +25       2.68    61.70     6.73    83.31     4.65    31.98    47.88    93.44    99.97    95.76P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           34   60  +19       1.26    55.35     1.23    81.13     4.74    25.75    25.33    84.63    99.83    89.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   60  +17       7.69    80.95     6.53    81.09     5.05    21.79    24.45    82.88    99.71    87.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   56   +4       8.48    83.15     2.37    71.64     4.61     3.01     0.60     9.91    82.08    24.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15       2.48    61.31     6.34    72.65     4.64    16.85     1.22    16.94    89.76    37.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   54   +9       5.21    72.20     5.62    70.39     4.71     9.01     0.39     7.32    76.81    22.91P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   50   +9      -2.62    38.22     0.16    68.28     4.68    11.69     0.10     3.79    63.51    21.64P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             33   48   +2       3.78    67.54     2.71    64.58     4.83     0.63     0.02     0.63    28.84     6.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool           34   45   +1      -4.70    30.00    -3.80    62.62     4.71     2.87     0.00     0.13    17.43     4.78P    0.10R    0.01  
Newport_County       32   44   +1       6.93    79.61    10.90    61.08     5.12    -2.07     0.00     0.18    11.79     2.02P    0.53R    0.11  
York                 34   43   +2      -0.36    48.91     5.84    58.55     4.59     0.89     0.00     0.01     4.04     0.92P    1.08R    0.22  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   42   -5       2.07    60.39     4.21    56.93     4.62    -6.93     0.00     0.00     1.88     0.29P    3.06R    0.60  
Cheltenham           33   42   -6      -2.69    38.10    -5.56    58.95     4.90    -7.16     0.00     0.03     5.03     1.13P    1.40R    0.28  
Dag_&_Red            33   41   -2      -1.40    44.13     1.71    57.95     4.90    -3.05     0.00     0.01     3.40     0.74P    2.47R    0.52  
Portsmouth           34   40  -11      -8.39    17.57   -13.82    57.22     4.77    -9.87     0.00     0.00     2.22     0.61P    3.12R    0.71  
Morecambe            33   40  -11      -0.58    48.14    -4.55    55.81     4.83   -13.79     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.20P    6.77R    1.68  
Bury                 32   39   +0      -7.14    20.49    -3.50    59.28     5.24     1.59     0.00     0.06     8.15     2.32P    1.53R    0.39  
Bristol_Rovers       33   39   -2      -3.63    33.71     1.10    56.29     4.87    -2.50     0.00     0.00     2.02     0.42P    4.25R    1.08  
Exeter               34   39   -6      -6.73    22.42    -4.97    55.36     4.70    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.19P    6.20R    1.73  
Mansfield            34   39  -13       2.07    60.39     0.92    53.13     4.64   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   16.68R    5.54  
Wycombe              33   38   -4      -5.40    26.67    -1.90    55.04     4.86    -4.97     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.22P    7.19R    2.02  
Accrington_Stanley   33   37   -8      -2.34    39.91     0.14    52.62     4.79   -11.02     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P   17.54R    5.38  
Northampton          33   33  -16      -6.31    22.82    -8.19    48.76     4.82   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   50.02R   22.31  
Torquay              33   30  -20      -8.26    15.96   -10.23    45.20     4.82   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   78.04R   57.41  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Aldershot 2 3 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            33   75  +58       6.79    80.42    19.38   102.04     4.43    73.73    99.46   100.00    99.72P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    32   61  +29       7.41    81.59    14.61    84.77     4.92    36.22     0.51    98.81    31.85P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           35   57   +9      -0.69    46.89    -5.91    74.27     4.45    12.29     0.00    54.08    14.54P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    34   57   -3      14.62    95.60     4.97    75.42     4.72     0.05     0.00    60.66     7.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         35   54   -4      10.40    88.85     2.91    67.50     4.27    -6.57     0.00     7.08     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        34   53   -2      10.54    88.57     5.12    66.96     4.60    -6.10     0.00     6.36     0.80P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   52  +15       0.55    52.39    -0.51    78.29     5.38    22.13     0.03    81.02    25.48P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        35   52   +7       2.10    59.75     4.34    67.08     4.34     6.96     0.00     6.91     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          35   51  +12       0.61    53.07     9.04    65.98     4.51    11.61     0.00     5.70     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    33   50   +0      -1.60    42.64   -10.09    69.94     4.89     3.10     0.00    20.45     4.76P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          33   49   +7       3.94    67.59     7.56    65.81     4.84     5.35     0.00     5.71     0.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +5       0.01    49.93     0.37    65.94     5.12     4.42     0.00     7.13     1.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          34   46   +2      -8.11    16.95    -9.90    65.66     4.66     6.78     0.00     4.64     1.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   46   -3      -0.10    50.08     0.50    59.91     4.36    -4.83     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.10R    0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45  +14      -4.33    29.71     2.95    68.29     5.29    17.93     0.00    16.51     4.21P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   45  +10       5.24    75.50     7.78    69.88     5.80     9.91     0.00    24.73     4.42P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   45   -9       2.05    59.85     0.14    57.34     4.24   -14.17     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.63R    0.00  
Hereford         34   39  -13      -6.75    21.52   -11.11    54.30     4.45   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.56R    0.00  
Southport        34   37  -17      -1.72    42.70    -3.50    50.54     4.50   -21.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.84R    0.00  
Chester          34   36  -17       0.64    54.04     1.16    49.19     4.31   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.28R    0.00  
Aldershot        33   33   +4     -10.19    11.80    -8.39    55.58     4.74    11.61     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.46R    0.00  
Dartford         35   33  -22      -6.76    21.24    -7.82    46.01     4.27   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.31R    0.00  
Tamworth         33   29  -23      -5.12    26.35    -5.04    41.52     4.48   -31.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.82R    0.00  
Hyde_United      35    9  -59     -18.07     0.34   -18.55    16.50     3.64   -73.96     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10