Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 5 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 March 2014, Aston_Villa 4 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          28   63  +30       7.93    86.44     3.79    83.42     3.90    40.35    43.77    77.65    93.22    99.56   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.05    65.42     8.12    78.55     4.06    47.62    10.59    30.92    68.71    94.98    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.59    77.46     0.51    76.93     4.10    30.56     4.67    15.96    43.43    88.95    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.36    50.80     6.50    82.60     4.10    58.22    40.94    75.15    91.50    99.23    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   53   +4       8.33    86.27    -4.85    68.58     4.13     6.67     0.02     0.24     2.08     9.45    79.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.63    73.24     2.06    66.45     4.41    15.89     0.00     0.07     0.66     4.71    61.60     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.72    21.11    -9.42    65.69     4.30    20.83     0.00     0.02     0.40     3.11    57.32     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.31    83.36     3.58    55.79     4.06    -4.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.56     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   39   +3       2.27    62.16     6.70    52.33     4.08     1.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.37    28.50     1.25    42.42     3.97    -8.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.29R    0.05  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.06    39.71     2.15    42.52     3.92   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.10R    0.05  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.16    50.16     8.17    39.84     3.90   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.83R    0.36  
Stoke            28   30  -14      -0.27    49.66    -1.27    42.62     4.08   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.72R    0.14  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.55    19.25     1.62    41.98     4.11    -5.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.10R    0.11  
Norwich          28   28  -22      -0.78    46.71    -5.89    37.30     3.81   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.83R    3.22  
Crystal_Palace   27   27  -18       3.02    68.48     3.15    36.05     3.94   -27.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.66R    6.79  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.76    11.40    -1.80    38.65     4.29   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.47R    2.11  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.11    23.85    -5.79    36.51     4.16   -23.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.45R    5.78  
Cardiff          28   22  -30      -2.10    39.31    -5.87    31.07     3.76   -37.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.27R   47.86  
Fulham           28   21  -34      -5.89    20.44   -12.73    32.41     3.98   -38.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.29R   33.52  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Bolton 4 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.21    95.82     7.76    96.97     4.74    37.96    90.01    98.74   100.00    99.15P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   66  +26      11.01    90.44    11.36    87.01     4.86    30.69     8.30    67.21    99.65    75.60P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   61  +18      10.26    88.51     9.61    82.58     4.89    23.77     1.26    22.24    96.43    38.26P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             32   57  +12       5.47    74.20     0.89    79.08     5.01    16.34     0.35     7.01    85.86    28.12P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +15       4.34    69.28     6.80    75.59     4.84    19.17     0.03     2.26    69.18    17.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.41    47.89    -1.63    74.82     5.08    16.55     0.05     1.89    61.58    18.73P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         33   51  +13      -3.46    34.26    -1.03    71.84     4.94    17.65     0.00     0.46    39.09    11.44P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        32   49   +7      -0.23    48.91    -1.10    70.38     4.98    10.28     0.00     0.14    25.49     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         33   48   +7       2.49    61.71     6.55    65.50     4.79     6.66     0.00     0.01     5.70     1.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       32   46   -1       1.74    58.65    -1.64    65.52     5.06    -0.33     0.00     0.02     5.36     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.62    22.14    -0.64    65.50     4.89    13.10     0.00     0.01     6.26     1.79P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   44   +4       0.26    51.51     4.16    64.49     5.12     5.83     0.00     0.01     4.62     0.90P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    33   43   +1       0.55    53.25     5.28    59.21     4.84    -1.55     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   40   +4      -5.50    26.11     3.38    58.48     4.80     5.08     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   39   +1      -3.09    35.99     3.29    57.03     5.02    -0.63     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.14R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   39   -9       2.29    62.04     3.06    55.43     5.10   -13.22     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.53R    0.02  
Birmingham      33   36   -3      -9.72    12.58    -3.74    53.97     4.92    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.77R    0.03  
Bolton          33   36   -8      -9.55    13.08    -8.24    54.33     4.94    -7.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.82R    0.02  
Blackpool       33   35  -19      -5.03    27.91   -11.28    50.96     4.67   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.82R    0.19  
Doncaster       33   30  -25      -1.76    42.39    -4.62    41.84     4.49   -34.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.13R   14.33  
Millwall        33   28  -30      -5.84    23.56   -12.51    41.13     4.49   -37.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.88R   18.81  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.52    13.57    -9.15    47.40     5.38   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.35R    2.32  
Yeovil          32   26  -20      -4.21    30.20     1.32    39.79     4.69   -28.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.80R   25.92  
Barnsley        32   26  -26      -6.43    20.95    -7.88    38.74     4.65   -36.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.70R   38.35  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 5 March 2014, Coventry 2 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   32   70  +37       5.66    75.25     6.30    96.90     4.98    48.54    72.13    92.02   100.00    95.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   34   70  +35      11.10    89.93    16.45    90.29     4.69    40.81    14.31    52.30   100.00    67.47P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   67  +23      12.55    93.33     7.23    90.52     5.09    29.42    13.03    49.64    99.99    64.91P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   64  +14      12.35    92.10     6.51    82.95     4.68    17.69     0.44     4.95    99.22    26.91P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       34   62  +21      11.04    88.51    14.68    78.66     4.77    21.08     0.09     1.03    94.61    17.98P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    33   52   +7      -1.28    44.41    -5.05    74.38     4.95    14.24     0.00     0.07    77.90    20.82P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         34   47   +6      -7.75    19.09    -6.14    65.48     4.79     8.96     0.00     0.00     9.35     2.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         34   47   +4      -0.43    48.17     2.58    65.10     4.69     6.46     0.00     0.00     7.15     1.34P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         34   46   +2      -6.60    22.72    -6.86    63.15     4.78     2.99     0.00     0.00     4.28     1.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   44   -2      -5.48    26.20    -8.24    62.73     4.91    -0.49     0.00     0.00     2.92     0.68P    0.11R    0.00  
Port_Vale       33   43   -8       3.44    65.84     1.45    58.56     4.97   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.08P    2.00R    0.06  
Coventry        33   41   +4       1.85    58.50    -1.57    59.89     5.00     5.43     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.35P    0.92R    0.03  
Bradford        33   41   +4       0.43    52.35    10.91    56.02     4.80    -0.31     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    4.45R    0.13  
Crawley_Town    29   39   -3       2.35    62.00     1.83    60.87     5.69    -5.05     0.00     0.00     2.23     0.36P    1.50R    0.07  
Oldham          34   38   -9      -1.99    41.47     0.83    52.68     4.67   -11.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.45R    1.50  
Gillingham      34   38  -14      -0.32    49.60    -0.69    51.56     4.59   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    25.67R    2.87  
Carlisle        33   37  -17       0.09    51.26    -3.31    50.86     4.69   -23.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   33.15R    5.07  
Colchester      32   36   -4      -2.96    36.75     3.28    53.46     5.03    -6.63     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   14.89R    1.70  
Tranmere        33   36  -17      -3.91    32.65    -8.69    52.54     4.88   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.53R    2.76  
Bristol_City    34   35   -7     -11.77     9.72    -6.59    51.90     4.83    -6.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.59R    3.00  
Crewe           34   35  -25       0.20    52.07    -5.36    47.24     4.45   -31.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.85R   19.30  
Shrewsbury      33   32  -12      -6.28    22.75    -2.08    47.85     4.79   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.51R   13.62  
Stevenage       33   32  -20      -4.54    29.87    -6.75    46.51     4.77   -24.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.70R   23.02  
Notts_County    34   30  -19     -11.69     8.66   -10.74    45.73     4.76   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.62R   26.86  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 March 2014, Newport_County 0 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         34   62  +25       2.78    61.98     6.87    83.25     4.67    31.90    47.15    93.14    99.96    95.50P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           34   60  +19       1.15    54.85     1.08    81.18     4.76    25.85    26.05    84.85    99.81    89.99P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   60  +17       7.63    80.78     6.44    81.12     5.01    21.85    24.43    83.00    99.69    87.56P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   56   +4       8.45    83.20     2.35    71.66     4.63     3.05     0.69    10.10    82.16    24.92P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15       2.81    62.21     6.75    72.56     4.65    16.72     1.14    16.41    89.21    36.69P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   54   +9       5.05    71.44     5.43    70.52     4.72     9.16     0.41     7.63    77.48    23.30P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   50   +9      -2.42    39.58     0.46    68.26     4.69    11.62     0.13     3.81    63.38    21.46P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             33   48   +2       3.84    67.74     2.81    64.58     4.83     0.63     0.00     0.67    28.35     6.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool           34   45   +1      -4.73    29.79    -3.83    62.65     4.76     2.89     0.00     0.13    18.16     5.05P    0.12R    0.01  
Newport_County       32   44   +1       6.96    79.99    10.95    61.05     5.13    -2.06     0.00     0.15    11.82     1.95P    0.51R    0.08  
York                 34   43   +2      -0.28    49.28     5.92    58.55     4.60     0.87     0.00     0.01     3.99     0.84P    1.01R    0.17  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   42   -5       2.06    60.30     4.23    56.90     4.62    -6.97     0.00     0.00     1.80     0.29P    3.17R    0.61  
Cheltenham           33   42   -6      -2.55    39.05    -5.34    58.84     4.90    -7.28     0.00     0.03     4.80     1.16P    1.58R    0.35  
Dag_&_Red            33   41   -2      -1.55    43.69     1.50    58.06     4.89    -2.91     0.00     0.01     3.77     0.80P    2.18R    0.46  
Portsmouth           34   40  -11      -8.41    17.57   -13.86    57.17     4.77    -9.92     0.00     0.00     2.07     0.56P    3.22R    0.71  
Morecambe            33   40  -11      -0.43    48.68    -4.32    55.74     4.83   -13.89     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.24P    6.89R    1.72  
Bury                 32   39   +0      -7.37    20.08    -3.87    59.33     5.22     1.71     0.00     0.07     7.98     2.27P    1.45R    0.35  
Bristol_Rovers       33   39   -2      -3.60    34.12     1.11    56.26     4.86    -2.52     0.00     0.00     1.91     0.40P    4.31R    1.08  
Exeter               34   39   -6      -6.80    22.29    -5.06    55.36     4.68    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.22P    6.11R    1.60  
Mansfield            34   39  -13       1.88    59.89     0.63    53.23     4.66   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   16.09R    5.42  
Wycombe              33   38   -4      -5.48    26.30    -2.00    55.09     4.87    -4.90     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.26P    7.11R    1.96  
Accrington_Stanley   33   37   -8      -2.40    39.59     0.09    52.64     4.77   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P   17.34R    5.17  
Northampton          33   33  -16      -6.25    23.23    -8.12    48.67     4.82   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.00R   22.89  
Torquay              33   30  -20      -8.28    16.05   -10.23    45.15     4.79   -23.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.91R   57.41  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Aldershot 2 3 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            33   75  +58       6.79    80.47    19.33   102.03     4.44    73.72    99.44   100.00    99.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    32   61  +29       7.21    80.88    14.33    84.82     4.91    36.31     0.53    98.86    31.84P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           35   57   +9      -0.64    47.18    -5.78    74.23     4.45    12.25     0.00    53.76    14.66P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    34   57   -3      14.69    95.68     5.17    75.40     4.69    -0.01     0.00    60.66     7.32P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         35   54   -4      10.36    88.90     2.92    67.45     4.26    -6.63     0.00     6.91     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        34   53   -2      10.64    88.69     5.27    66.92     4.58    -6.13     0.00     6.32     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   52  +15       0.67    53.10    -0.32    78.25     5.39    22.07     0.03    80.74    25.07P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        35   52   +7       1.97    59.19     4.12    67.11     4.33     7.00     0.00     6.79     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          35   51  +12       0.57    52.91     8.95    65.94     4.51    11.55     0.00     5.69     1.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    33   50   +0      -1.64    42.35   -10.10    69.95     4.87     3.14     0.00    20.27     4.77P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          33   49   +7       3.89    67.44     7.47    65.82     4.85     5.35     0.00     5.74     0.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +5       0.12    50.69     0.55    65.92     5.10     4.41     0.00     6.97     1.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          34   46   +2      -8.19    17.00    -9.97    65.67     4.63     6.80     0.00     4.67     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   46   -3      -0.23    49.24     0.26    59.96     4.37    -4.77     0.00     0.18     0.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45  +14      -4.43    29.35     2.81    68.34     5.31    17.99     0.00    17.00     4.25P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   45  +10       5.11    75.02     7.53    69.98     5.83    10.09     0.00    25.42     4.58P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   45   -9       1.97    59.74    -0.00    57.33     4.24   -14.18     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.59R    0.00  
Hereford         34   39  -13      -6.63    22.08   -10.92    54.27     4.45   -14.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.65R    0.00  
Southport        34   37  -17      -1.83    42.12    -3.67    50.61     4.51   -21.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.57R    0.00  
Chester          34   36  -17       0.74    54.38     1.32    49.13     4.28   -23.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.50R    0.00  
Aldershot        33   33   +4     -10.03    12.46    -8.15    55.48     4.75    11.51     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.58R    0.00  
Dartford         35   33  -22      -6.70    21.52    -7.70    45.97     4.29   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.87R    0.00  
Tamworth         33   29  -23      -5.19    25.94    -5.15    41.58     4.54   -31.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.14R    0.00  
Hyde_United      35    9  -59     -17.93     0.40   -18.28    16.54     3.66   -73.96     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10