Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 4 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 March 2014, Aston_Villa 4 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          28   63  +30       8.00    86.26     3.83    83.46     3.94    40.36    44.50    77.79    93.00    99.51   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.10    65.86     8.25    78.51     4.04    47.55    10.51    30.73    68.28    94.95    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.56    77.38     0.39    77.00     4.11    30.64     4.68    16.48    44.73    89.07    99.61     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.40    50.88     6.50    82.54     4.13    58.18    40.28    74.65    90.98    99.10    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   53   +4       8.26    85.92    -4.95    68.60     4.14     6.71     0.02     0.25     1.96     9.53    79.53     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.59    73.18     1.93    66.52     4.39    16.00     0.01     0.06     0.70     4.80    62.28     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.76    21.32    -9.48    65.66     4.32    20.79     0.00     0.03     0.34     3.03    56.83     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.39    83.33     3.72    55.75     4.04    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.54     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   39   +3       2.28    62.23     6.71    52.36     4.09     1.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.45    27.89     1.11    42.42     3.98    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.12R    0.06  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.03    40.12     2.26    42.49     3.93   -11.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.04R    0.08  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.25    49.70     8.04    39.92     3.92   -10.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.65R    0.33  
Stoke            28   30  -14      -0.28    49.56    -1.30    42.62     4.10   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.70R    0.12  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.62    18.87     1.58    41.90     4.13    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.39R    0.11  
Norwich          28   28  -22      -0.78    46.62    -5.89    37.27     3.79   -29.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.07R    3.37  
Crystal_Palace   27   27  -18       3.03    68.63     3.17    36.04     3.88   -27.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.37R    6.69  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.69    11.68    -1.73    38.64     4.28   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.54R    2.06  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.16    23.75    -5.84    36.55     4.19   -23.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.13R    5.79  
Cardiff          28   22  -30      -2.01    39.81    -5.72    31.08     3.77   -37.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.44R   47.41  
Fulham           28   21  -34      -5.81    21.18   -12.58    32.38     3.99   -38.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.54R   33.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Bolton 4 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.15    95.80     7.73    97.02     4.72    38.06    90.26    98.74   100.00    99.10P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   66  +26      11.09    90.52    11.50    86.97     4.90    30.64     7.99    66.10    99.61    74.51P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   61  +18      10.04    87.69     9.29    82.72     4.88    24.00     1.36    23.15    96.72    39.53P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             32   57  +12       5.42    74.53     0.78    79.16     4.99    16.46     0.31     7.22    86.19    28.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +15       4.35    69.25     6.83    75.59     4.85    19.20     0.03     2.27    69.27    17.08P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.52    47.41    -1.77    74.82     5.07    16.54     0.05     1.83    61.11    18.71P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         33   51  +13      -3.59    33.90    -1.17    71.87     4.92    17.69     0.00     0.52    39.15    11.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        32   49   +7      -0.15    49.47    -1.05    70.43     4.97    10.33     0.00     0.13    25.64     6.38P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         33   48   +7       2.54    61.96     6.55    65.51     4.83     6.70     0.00     0.02     5.76     1.11P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   46   -1       1.85    59.05    -1.48    65.44     5.07    -0.44     0.00     0.01     5.12     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.58    22.24    -0.59    65.51     4.87    13.10     0.00     0.00     6.27     1.67P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   44   +4       0.30    51.83     4.19    64.42     5.11     5.73     0.00     0.01     4.49     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    33   43   +1       0.67    53.83     5.56    59.12     4.83    -1.73     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   40   +4      -5.59    25.52     3.37    58.48     4.83     5.09     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   39   +1      -3.12    35.50     3.22    57.01     5.01    -0.64     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.14R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   39   -9       2.25    61.48     2.99    55.47     5.09   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.44R    0.01  
Birmingham      33   36   -3      -9.90    11.66    -4.01    54.08     4.89    -2.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72R    0.01  
Bolton          33   36   -8      -9.33    13.41    -7.93    54.22     4.90    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.85R    0.02  
Blackpool       33   35  -19      -4.98    28.02   -11.20    50.96     4.68   -21.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.83R    0.19  
Doncaster       33   30  -25      -1.78    42.42    -4.69    41.79     4.46   -34.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.33R   14.32  
Millwall        33   28  -30      -5.75    23.97   -12.38    41.07     4.48   -37.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.07R   19.01  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.38    13.79    -8.98    47.40     5.37   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.37R    2.42  
Yeovil          32   26  -20      -4.26    30.20     1.23    39.81     4.70   -28.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.59R   25.85  
Barnsley        32   26  -26      -6.46    20.55    -8.00    38.75     4.65   -36.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.58R   38.16  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 March 2014, Colchester 0 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   32   70  +37       5.63    75.01     6.26    96.94     5.00    48.57    72.04    91.97   100.00    95.38P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   34   70  +35      11.02    89.69    16.35    90.32     4.68    40.84    14.53    52.64    99.99    67.41P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   67  +23      12.56    93.45     7.31    90.46     5.13    29.33    12.81    49.28    99.99    64.76P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   64  +14      12.42    92.12     6.60    82.98     4.68    17.69     0.54     5.03    99.03    27.43P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       34   62  +21      11.08    88.70    14.76    78.63     4.78    21.06     0.07     1.00    93.76    17.75P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    33   52   +7      -1.11    45.04    -4.80    74.32     4.97    14.14     0.00     0.08    76.01    20.46P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         34   47   +6      -7.59    19.25    -5.95    65.43     4.79     8.92     0.00     0.00     8.76     2.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         33   47   +5       0.48    52.34     2.94    66.39     4.90     7.30     0.00     0.00    11.55     2.23P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons         34   46   +2      -6.36    23.99    -6.50    63.05     4.76     2.83     0.00     0.00     3.82     0.89P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   44   -2      -5.42    26.66    -8.17    62.73     4.89    -0.50     0.00     0.00     2.85     0.68P    0.14R    0.00  
Port_Vale       33   43   -8       3.49    66.03     1.55    58.54     4.97   -12.04     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.10P    2.05R    0.04  
Bradford        33   41   +4       0.22    51.77    10.64    56.07     4.81    -0.23     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    4.32R    0.16  
Crawley_Town    29   39   -3       2.26    61.66     1.69    60.93     5.68    -4.94     0.00     0.00     2.38     0.36P    1.36R    0.07  
Coventry        32   38   +3       0.34    51.45    -2.39    58.48     5.23     4.78     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.20P    2.28R    0.14  
Oldham          34   38   -9      -1.89    41.78     1.01    52.60     4.65   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.55R    1.63  
Gillingham      34   38  -14      -0.24    49.95    -0.54    51.48     4.58   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.28R    3.01  
Carlisle        33   37  -17       0.24    52.11    -3.10    50.85     4.71   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.36R    5.01  
Colchester      32   36   -4      -3.15    36.15     3.00    53.54     5.07    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   14.59R    1.64  
Tranmere        33   36  -17      -3.97    32.82    -8.77    52.55     4.89   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.32R    2.64  
Bristol_City    34   35   -7     -12.09     8.94    -7.11    52.00     4.84    -6.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.74R    2.92  
Crewe           34   35  -25       0.23    52.11    -5.33    47.23     4.48   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.60R   19.63  
Shrewsbury      33   32  -12      -6.13    23.33    -1.92    47.83     4.76   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.59R   13.74  
Stevenage       33   32  -20      -4.57    29.68    -6.79    46.49     4.75   -24.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.49R   23.14  
Notts_County    34   30  -19     -11.69     8.58   -10.75    45.80     4.73   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.26R   26.24  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 March 2014, Newport_County 0 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         34   62  +25       2.64    61.70     6.71    83.35     4.66    32.06    48.51    93.37    99.97    95.73P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           34   60  +19       1.35    55.51     1.38    81.08     4.73    25.69    24.46    84.74    99.82    90.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   60  +17       7.49    80.45     6.21    81.16     5.02    21.92    24.69    82.99    99.74    87.79P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   56   +4       8.49    83.28     2.38    71.69     4.66     3.08     0.63    10.21    81.80    24.78P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15       2.63    61.82     6.49    72.64     4.64    16.82     1.23    16.79    89.64    37.25P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   54   +9       5.40    73.13     5.90    70.34     4.71     8.92     0.36     7.08    76.41    22.50P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   50   +9      -2.72    37.65     0.03    68.31     4.68    11.75     0.11     3.75    63.98    21.74P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             33   48   +2       3.81    67.73     2.79    64.58     4.81     0.62     0.01     0.62    28.34     6.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool           34   45   +1      -4.56    30.73    -3.58    62.56     4.72     2.77     0.00     0.17    17.46     4.87P    0.10R    0.01  
Newport_County       32   44   +1       7.01    79.95    10.99    61.04     5.16    -2.13     0.00     0.14    12.04     1.98P    0.54R    0.06  
York                 34   43   +2      -0.52    48.20     5.61    58.62     4.61     0.96     0.00     0.01     4.27     0.85P    1.01R    0.20  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   42   -5       1.80    59.14     3.81    56.94     4.62    -6.92     0.00     0.00     1.86     0.29P    3.02R    0.60  
Cheltenham           33   42   -6      -2.58    38.95    -5.38    58.95     4.91    -7.16     0.00     0.03     5.11     1.18P    1.50R    0.31  
Dag_&_Red            33   41   -2      -1.32    44.43     1.87    58.00     4.89    -3.03     0.00     0.01     3.62     0.75P    2.24R    0.51  
Portsmouth           34   40  -11      -8.29    17.84   -13.71    57.15     4.78    -9.95     0.00     0.00     2.16     0.54P    3.20R    0.70  
Morecambe            33   40  -11      -0.45    48.73    -4.37    55.81     4.82   -13.79     0.00     0.01     1.20     0.22P    6.68R    1.63  
Bury                 32   39   +0      -7.33    20.08    -3.76    59.32     5.22     1.69     0.00     0.07     8.22     2.24P    1.40R    0.31  
Bristol_Rovers       33   39   -2      -3.80    33.17     0.84    56.33     4.88    -2.42     0.00     0.00     2.01     0.49P    4.16R    1.06  
Exeter               34   39   -6      -6.75    22.35    -5.00    55.38     4.68    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.19P    6.00R    1.67  
Mansfield            34   39  -13       2.00    60.10     0.80    53.11     4.63   -16.26     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   16.69R    5.35  
Wycombe              33   38   -4      -5.23    27.45    -1.61    54.95     4.90    -5.04     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.25P    7.43R    2.19  
Accrington_Stanley   33   37   -8      -2.52    38.85    -0.12    52.69     4.78   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P   17.16R    5.23  
Northampton          33   33  -16      -6.28    22.59    -8.16    48.69     4.81   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.59R   22.45  
Torquay              33   30  -20      -8.16    16.54   -10.13    45.15     4.80   -23.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.27R   57.71  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Aldershot 2 3 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            33   75  +58       6.85    80.38    19.45   102.00     4.48    73.67    99.39   100.00    99.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    32   61  +29       7.34    81.39    14.49    84.76     4.90    36.20     0.56    98.80    32.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           35   57   +9      -0.67    46.72    -5.91    74.23     4.45    12.25     0.00    53.66    14.41P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    34   57   -3      14.46    95.36     4.76    75.45     4.68     0.08     0.00    61.07     7.61P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         35   54   -4      10.53    89.03     3.16    67.41     4.24    -6.71     0.00     6.59     0.81P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        34   53   -2      10.67    89.02     5.30    66.92     4.56    -6.14     0.00     6.19     0.81P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   52  +15       0.51    52.21    -0.55    78.33     5.38    22.20     0.04    81.12    25.57P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        35   52   +7       2.01    59.32     4.24    67.10     4.32     7.00     0.00     6.99     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          35   51  +12       0.52    52.32     8.82    65.97     4.52    11.60     0.00     5.70     1.04P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    33   50   +0      -1.66    42.29   -10.26    70.05     4.88     3.26     0.00    21.10     4.75P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          33   49   +7       4.14    68.55     7.87    65.73     4.84     5.22     0.00     5.60     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +5       0.03    50.23     0.46    65.93     5.10     4.37     0.00     6.88     1.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          34   46   +2      -8.06    17.19    -9.73    65.63     4.64     6.70     0.00     4.59     1.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   46   -3      -0.10    50.00     0.58    59.95     4.39    -4.76     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.09R    0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45  +14      -4.35    29.82     2.90    68.32     5.29    17.96     0.00    16.52     4.15P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   45  +10       5.26    75.43     7.73    69.89     5.79     9.97     0.00    25.01     4.45P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   45   -9       1.94    59.35    -0.08    57.35     4.26   -14.15     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.64R    0.00  
Hereford         34   39  -13      -6.77    21.54   -11.13    54.26     4.44   -14.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.67R    0.00  
Southport        34   37  -17      -1.92    41.51    -3.76    50.64     4.49   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.14R    0.00  
Chester          34   36  -17       0.57    53.71     1.07    49.25     4.30   -22.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.30R    0.00  
Aldershot        33   33   +4      -9.95    12.54    -8.06    55.49     4.76    11.49     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.56R    0.00  
Dartford         35   33  -22      -6.58    21.91    -7.42    46.00     4.28   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.88R    0.00  
Tamworth         33   29  -23      -5.19    26.18    -5.11    41.53     4.50   -31.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.70R    0.00  
Hyde_United      35    9  -59     -18.20     0.34   -18.81    16.53     3.65   -73.85     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10