Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 3 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 March 2014, Aston_Villa 4 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          28   63  +30       8.03    86.61     3.88    83.41     3.92    40.30    43.91    77.41    93.00    99.52   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       2.96    65.25     8.02    78.56     4.06    47.66    10.86    31.22    68.95    94.90    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.55    77.17     0.42    76.93     4.08    30.60     4.64    16.23    43.79    88.83    99.58     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.57    51.74     6.79    82.55     4.13    58.10    40.56    74.79    91.22    99.15    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   53   +4       8.34    86.01    -4.86    68.58     4.14     6.66     0.03     0.25     1.90     9.51    79.74     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.61    73.36     2.06    66.46     4.42    15.92     0.00     0.06     0.71     4.87    61.79     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.75    21.48    -9.52    65.66     4.32    20.81     0.00     0.04     0.42     3.21    57.16     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.33    83.05     3.62    55.77     4.06    -4.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.57     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   39   +3       2.34    62.73     6.81    52.37     4.09     1.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.31    28.94     1.29    42.39     3.99    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.16R    0.06  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.06    39.92     2.19    42.53     3.92   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.99R    0.07  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.37    49.29     7.89    39.94     3.94   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.56R    0.31  
Stoke            28   30  -14      -0.40    48.91    -1.45    42.68     4.10   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.68R    0.13  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.54    19.35     1.63    41.90     4.14    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.63R    0.12  
Norwich          28   28  -22      -0.76    46.59    -5.89    37.29     3.79   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.91R    3.19  
Crystal_Palace   27   27  -18       2.98    68.26     3.07    36.08     3.90   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.02R    6.68  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.75    11.59    -1.80    38.65     4.28   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.64R    2.02  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.08    24.24    -5.70    36.56     4.17   -23.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.34R    5.59  
Cardiff          28   22  -30      -1.92    40.34    -5.51    31.01     3.76   -37.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.69R   48.13  
Fulham           28   21  -34      -5.98    20.43   -12.93    32.39     4.01   -38.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.37R   33.71  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Bolton 4 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.26    95.79     7.86    96.94     4.71    37.93    90.02    98.77   100.00    99.11P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   66  +26      10.98    90.39    11.37    87.01     4.91    30.69     8.35    66.64    99.67    75.11P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   61  +18      10.18    87.96     9.50    82.64     4.91    23.88     1.31    22.86    96.55    39.15P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             32   57  +12       5.44    74.16     0.82    79.10     5.00    16.38     0.26     6.94    86.05    28.04P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +15       4.51    70.18     7.07    75.56     4.83    19.16     0.02     2.20    69.22    17.09P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.47    47.55    -1.72    74.83     5.08    16.54     0.03     1.91    61.39    18.72P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         33   51  +13      -3.47    34.51    -1.02    71.84     4.97    17.67     0.00     0.51    39.10    11.47P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        32   49   +7       0.09    50.67    -0.67    70.33     4.99    10.19     0.00     0.14    25.25     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         33   48   +7       2.56    62.27     6.57    65.51     4.79     6.68     0.00     0.01     5.73     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   46   -1       1.63    57.96    -1.80    65.57     5.08    -0.24     0.00     0.00     5.64     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.35    22.77    -0.25    65.39     4.84    12.91     0.00     0.01     6.10     1.53P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   44   +4       0.13    51.09     3.98    64.48     5.10     5.84     0.00     0.01     4.56     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    33   43   +1       0.51    53.08     5.27    59.15     4.82    -1.64     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   40   +4      -5.57    25.85     3.37    58.48     4.83     5.05     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    0.06R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   39   +1      -3.10    35.81     3.27    57.02     4.98    -0.65     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.12R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   39   -9       2.17    61.11     2.89    55.50     5.13   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.51R    0.01  
Birmingham      33   36   -3      -9.70    12.24    -3.71    53.98     4.91    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.78R    0.01  
Bolton          33   36   -8      -9.63    12.95    -8.38    54.32     4.92    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.83R    0.02  
Blackpool       33   35  -19      -5.05    27.72   -11.33    50.94     4.67   -21.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.04R    0.17  
Doncaster       33   30  -25      -1.65    42.92    -4.49    41.84     4.50   -34.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.44R   14.25  
Millwall        33   28  -30      -5.66    24.33   -12.25    41.07     4.48   -37.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.37R   19.39  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.55    13.30    -9.19    47.43     5.38   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.32R    2.41  
Yeovil          32   26  -20      -4.47    29.36     0.87    39.88     4.72   -28.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.00R   25.84  
Barnsley        32   26  -26      -6.52    20.39    -8.03    38.81     4.67   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.53R   37.89  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 March 2014, Coventry 0 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   32   70  +37       5.65    74.93     6.28    96.94     5.00    48.60    72.15    91.99   100.00    95.40P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   34   70  +35      11.04    89.80    16.30    90.30     4.70    40.85    14.14    51.98    99.99    66.89P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   67  +23      12.56    93.27     7.32    90.52     5.15    29.38    13.02    49.42    99.98    64.60P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   64  +14      12.54    92.39     6.78    82.95     4.68    17.67     0.50     4.86    98.87    26.11P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       33   61  +21      11.38    89.52    14.69    79.12     5.02    21.17     0.17     1.48    93.60    17.99P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    32   52   +9      -0.56    47.62    -4.12    75.97     5.16    16.62     0.02     0.27    82.55    23.22P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         34   47   +6      -7.85    18.50    -6.30    65.53     4.78     9.07     0.00     0.00     7.24     1.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         33   47   +5       0.48    52.39     2.88    66.38     4.92     7.27     0.00     0.00     9.26     2.01P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         34   46   +2      -6.49    23.01    -6.70    63.11     4.77     2.92     0.00     0.00     3.04     0.77P    0.05R    0.00  
Port_Vale       33   43   -8       3.60    66.82     1.74    58.45     4.97   -12.13     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.07P    2.13R    0.07  
Bradford        33   41   +4       0.27    51.88    10.69    56.06     4.83    -0.21     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    4.44R    0.12  
Sheff_Utd       32   41   -4      -6.57    21.99    -9.47    60.93     5.15    -2.75     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.34P    0.59R    0.01  
Coventry        32   38   +3       0.52    52.37    -2.05    58.36     5.23     4.59     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.14P    2.38R    0.12  
Crawley_Town    28   38   -3       2.67    63.77     1.79    61.80     5.94    -4.21     0.00     0.00     2.80     0.45P    1.29R    0.07  
Oldham          34   38   -9      -1.70    42.67     1.28    52.54     4.64   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.84R    1.70  
Gillingham      34   38  -14      -0.38    49.54    -0.76    51.51     4.60   -18.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.92R    2.85  
Carlisle        33   37  -17       0.18    51.62    -3.15    50.87     4.70   -23.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.02R    4.93  
Tranmere        33   36  -17      -3.83    33.28    -8.54    52.56     4.87   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.86R    2.57  
Colchester      31   35   -4      -2.74    37.66     3.15    53.81     5.29    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   14.35R    1.74  
Bristol_City    34   35   -7     -12.00     9.12    -6.96    51.91     4.84    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.24R    2.86  
Crewe           34   35  -25       0.18    51.77    -5.36    47.27     4.51   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.19R   19.09  
Shrewsbury      33   32  -12      -6.22    23.02    -2.00    47.85     4.76   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.32R   13.35  
Stevenage       32   31  -20      -4.30    30.34    -6.81    46.43     4.93   -25.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   67.74R   23.89  
Notts_County    34   30  -19     -11.64     8.84   -10.70    45.71     4.75   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.62R   26.61  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 3 March 2014, Chesterfield 0 0 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         34   62  +25       2.70    62.02     6.85    83.28     4.65    31.96    47.53    92.99    99.96    95.42P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           34   60  +19       1.15    54.74     1.07    81.15     4.74    25.80    25.26    84.31    99.77    89.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   60  +17       7.54    80.38     6.32    81.13     5.02    21.84    24.47    82.69    99.73    87.33P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   56   +4       8.64    83.80     2.59    71.63     4.62     2.97     0.65     9.50    81.41    24.23P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15       2.68    62.17     6.64    72.64     4.65    16.81     1.28    16.54    89.26    36.87P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   53   +9       5.70    74.38     5.85    70.88     4.94     9.14     0.68     9.18    78.08    24.46P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   50   +9      -2.73    37.66    -0.01    68.37     4.67    11.80     0.10     3.67    63.56    21.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Plymouth             33   48   +2       3.79    67.60     2.76    64.59     4.84     0.65     0.02     0.64    28.25     6.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool           34   45   +1      -4.62    30.44    -3.69    62.59     4.73     2.81     0.00     0.15    17.20     4.76P    0.13R    0.01  
York                 34   43   +2      -0.52    48.13     5.56    58.61     4.63     0.95     0.00     0.00     4.04     0.82P    1.06R    0.21  
Newport_County       31   43   +1       7.34    81.53    11.07    61.29     5.37    -2.38     0.00     0.24    13.48     2.34P    0.58R    0.11  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   42   -5       2.04    60.35     4.16    56.94     4.61    -6.94     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.26P    2.95R    0.59  
Cheltenham           33   42   -6      -2.53    38.95    -5.33    58.87     4.87    -7.25     0.00     0.02     4.66     1.11P    1.54R    0.29  
Dag_&_Red            33   41   -2      -1.41    44.05     1.68    57.99     4.91    -3.01     0.00     0.01     3.54     0.76P    2.34R    0.47  
Portsmouth           34   40  -11      -8.49    17.32   -13.91    57.23     4.78    -9.84     0.00     0.00     2.15     0.62P    3.28R    0.74  
Morecambe            33   40  -11      -0.26    49.50    -4.10    55.74     4.80   -13.89     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.21P    6.89R    1.67  
Bury                 32   39   +0      -7.37    20.09    -3.86    59.35     5.26     1.71     0.00     0.05     7.83     2.23P    1.63R    0.37  
Bristol_Rovers       33   39   -2      -3.58    34.11     1.13    56.26     4.85    -2.52     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.40P    4.31R    1.08  
Exeter               34   39   -6      -6.89    21.85    -5.18    55.41     4.69    -6.01     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.21P    5.90R    1.64  
Mansfield            34   39  -13       1.84    59.23     0.67    53.21     4.66   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   16.32R    5.29  
Wycombe              33   38   -4      -5.44    26.55    -1.93    55.10     4.89    -4.90     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.27P    7.04R    2.03  
Accrington_Stanley   33   37   -8      -2.39    39.40     0.08    52.61     4.79   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.06P   17.63R    5.47  
Northampton          33   33  -16      -6.32    22.40    -8.21    48.73     4.82   -18.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   50.20R   22.17  
Torquay              33   30  -20      -8.23    16.09   -10.22    45.12     4.79   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.17R   57.85  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Aldershot 2 3 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            33   75  +58       6.90    80.81    19.58   102.00     4.49    73.70    99.41   100.00    99.66P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    32   61  +29       7.18    81.02    14.23    84.79     4.89    36.27     0.56    98.81    31.92P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           35   57   +9      -0.71    46.84    -5.92    74.23     4.46    12.26     0.00    53.30    14.37P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    34   57   -3      14.49    95.46     4.85    75.42     4.69     0.04     0.00    60.49     7.19P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         35   54   -4      10.44    88.82     3.02    67.45     4.27    -6.67     0.00     6.81     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        34   53   -2      10.41    88.30     4.92    66.99     4.60    -6.03     0.00     6.40     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   52  +15       0.45    52.17    -0.62    78.35     5.40    22.24     0.03    80.89    25.52P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        35   52   +7       2.06    59.45     4.30    67.09     4.36     6.99     0.00     7.13     1.23P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          35   51  +12       0.83    53.72     9.33    65.89     4.50    11.44     0.00     5.55     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    33   50   +0      -1.58    42.85   -10.11    69.99     4.88     3.20     0.00    20.39     4.87P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          33   49   +7       3.99    67.61     7.64    65.79     4.86     5.28     0.00     5.80     0.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +5       0.07    50.40     0.52    65.93     5.12     4.38     0.00     7.01     1.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          34   46   +2      -8.11    17.20    -9.84    65.61     4.64     6.72     0.00     4.53     1.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   46   -3      -0.23    49.51     0.40    59.90     4.38    -4.84     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.09R    0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45  +14      -4.55    29.05     2.57    68.40     5.30    18.09     0.00    16.93     4.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   45  +10       5.07    74.72     7.49    70.04     5.87    10.14     0.00    25.79     4.74P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   45   -9       1.96    59.42    -0.07    57.30     4.25   -14.20     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.70R    0.00  
Hereford         34   39  -13      -6.72    21.94   -11.10    54.28     4.41   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.52R    0.00  
Southport        34   37  -17      -1.84    41.92    -3.65    50.59     4.50   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.57R    0.00  
Chester          34   36  -17       0.70    54.36     1.24    49.18     4.27   -23.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.25R    0.00  
Aldershot        33   33   +4     -10.01    12.37    -8.12    55.52     4.75    11.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.59R    0.00  
Dartford         35   33  -22      -6.54    22.08    -7.45    45.99     4.27   -25.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.52R    0.00  
Tamworth         33   29  -23      -5.06    26.57    -4.87    41.53     4.49   -31.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.75R    0.00  
Hyde_United      35    9  -59     -17.95     0.39   -18.34    16.53     3.68   -73.94     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10