Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 2 March 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 March 2014, Aston_Villa 4 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          28   63  +30       7.91    86.35     3.76    83.45     3.93    40.34    44.38    77.70    93.19    99.58   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   59  +38       3.13    65.74     8.25    78.54     4.05    47.58    10.65    30.94    68.64    94.93    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   59  +24       5.50    76.93     0.35    76.97     4.09    30.64     4.39    16.32    43.82    89.15    99.63     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.39    50.81     6.50    82.56     4.14    58.19    40.54    74.65    91.23    99.18    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   53   +4       8.37    86.31    -4.81    68.58     4.15     6.68     0.03     0.31     2.12     9.41    79.56     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   48  +11       4.56    73.14     1.93    66.45     4.40    15.89     0.00     0.06     0.64     4.61    61.59     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.62    21.56    -9.29    65.67     4.31    20.82     0.00     0.01     0.38     3.13    57.50     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        28   43   -2       7.30    83.40     3.58    55.77     4.05    -4.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   39   +3       2.32    62.47     6.77    52.32     4.09     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   31   -4      -4.28    28.66     1.35    42.36     3.95    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.25R    0.05  
Aston_Villa      28   31   -7      -2.04    40.28     2.28    42.47     3.92   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.09R    0.03  
Hull             28   30   -5      -0.27    49.52     8.00    39.95     3.92   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.56R    0.33  
Stoke            28   30  -14      -0.33    49.19    -1.38    42.67     4.07   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.63R    0.13  
Swansea          28   29   -4      -6.60    18.80     1.56    41.91     4.11    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.52R    0.16  
Norwich          28   28  -22      -0.74    46.84    -5.84    37.30     3.81   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.70R    3.21  
Crystal_Palace   27   27  -18       2.96    68.07     3.04    36.09     3.88   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.99R    6.51  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.78    11.32    -1.82    38.65     4.28   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.49R    2.03  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.16    23.91    -5.88    36.57     4.18   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.25R    5.72  
Cardiff          28   22  -30      -1.99    39.82    -5.67    31.04     3.78   -37.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.66R   48.16  
Fulham           28   21  -34      -5.80    20.81   -12.68    32.38     3.99   -38.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.87R   33.66  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Bolton 4 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       33   74  +30      14.06    95.55     7.58    97.01     4.73    38.05    90.28    98.88   100.00    99.20P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   66  +26      11.09    90.86    11.52    86.93     4.89    30.61     8.06    65.96    99.64    74.43P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   61  +18      10.18    88.28     9.52    82.69     4.90    23.94     1.28    23.23    96.66    39.26P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             32   57  +12       5.34    73.80     0.70    79.17     5.00    16.48     0.33     7.20    86.27    28.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +15       4.42    69.87     6.93    75.62     4.82    19.21     0.02     2.24    69.14    17.12P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           32   52  +11      -0.38    48.00    -1.57    74.76     5.10    16.47     0.04     1.82    60.75    18.61P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         33   51  +13      -3.58    34.03    -1.17    71.91     4.94    17.73     0.01     0.47    39.66    11.62P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        32   49   +7      -0.05    49.97    -0.86    70.37     4.99    10.25     0.00     0.16    25.35     6.53P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         33   48   +7       2.52    61.88     6.54    65.49     4.79     6.65     0.00     0.01     5.50     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   46   -1       1.69    58.19    -1.75    65.55     5.05    -0.31     0.00     0.00     5.36     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Watford         33   45   +9      -6.63    22.05    -0.70    65.52     4.89    13.11     0.00     0.01     6.48     1.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   44   +4       0.31    51.91     4.29    64.40     5.09     5.70     0.00     0.01     4.46     0.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield    33   43   +1       0.41    52.22     5.11    59.16     4.83    -1.67     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   40   +4      -5.40    26.48     3.53    58.44     4.82     5.04     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   39   +1      -3.10    35.83     3.30    57.03     4.99    -0.63     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.16R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   39   -9       2.17    61.33     2.88    55.49     5.11   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.54R    0.02  
Birmingham      33   36   -3      -9.79    12.27    -3.79    53.96     4.95    -2.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.84R    0.03  
Bolton          33   36   -8      -9.40    13.29    -8.05    54.27     4.89    -7.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.85R    0.02  
Blackpool       33   35  -19      -4.99    27.86   -11.28    50.97     4.65   -21.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.74R    0.19  
Doncaster       33   30  -25      -1.85    41.97    -4.84    41.85     4.49   -34.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.97R   14.31  
Millwall        33   28  -30      -5.84    23.56   -12.48    41.14     4.50   -37.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.59R   18.61  
Charlton        30   27  -17      -8.39    13.63    -8.95    47.34     5.36   -19.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.59R    2.46  
Yeovil          32   26  -20      -4.10    31.03     1.45    39.77     4.70   -28.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.95R   26.32  
Barnsley        32   26  -26      -6.48    20.69    -7.91    38.75     4.65   -36.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.73R   38.02  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 March 2014, Coventry 0 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wolverhampton   32   70  +37       5.57    74.91     6.22    96.93     4.98    48.57    72.02    91.91   100.00    95.38P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient   34   70  +35      11.17    89.86    16.60    90.28     4.72    40.78    14.14    51.55    99.98    66.60P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   67  +23      12.49    93.18     7.16    90.57     5.15    29.45    13.18    49.95    99.97    65.06P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   64  +14      12.49    92.45     6.68    82.93     4.69    17.62     0.47     4.79    98.85    26.09P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       33   61  +21      11.51    89.76    14.83    79.09     5.03    21.13     0.17     1.49    93.46    17.81P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    32   52   +9      -0.70    46.86    -4.31    76.04     5.19    16.75     0.01     0.31    82.73    23.40P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon         34   47   +6      -7.81    18.79    -6.19    65.51     4.80     9.03     0.00     0.00     7.18     1.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall         33   47   +5       0.52    52.94     2.97    66.39     4.95     7.31     0.00     0.00     9.40     1.98P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         34   46   +2      -6.53    23.14    -6.74    63.08     4.78     2.89     0.00     0.00     2.91     0.72P    0.05R    0.00  
Port_Vale       33   43   -8       3.53    66.28     1.56    58.51     4.96   -12.04     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P    2.14R    0.06  
Bradford        33   41   +4       0.35    52.21    10.82    55.99     4.81    -0.36     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    4.59R    0.15  
Sheff_Utd       32   41   -4      -6.53    21.82    -9.44    60.93     5.13    -2.74     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.34P    0.71R    0.01  
Coventry        32   38   +3       0.47    52.01    -2.16    58.44     5.24     4.65     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.16P    2.31R    0.09  
Crawley_Town    28   38   -3       2.60    63.63     1.73    61.82     5.95    -4.18     0.00     0.00     2.77     0.49P    1.23R    0.07  
Oldham          34   38   -9      -1.82    42.39     1.07    52.62     4.67   -11.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.63R    1.61  
Gillingham      34   38  -14      -0.21    49.97    -0.47    51.42     4.62   -19.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.64R    3.12  
Carlisle        33   37  -17       0.08    51.28    -3.39    50.92     4.72   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.54R    4.96  
Tranmere        33   36  -17      -3.81    33.27    -8.51    52.51     4.84   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.20R    2.48  
Colchester      31   35   -4      -2.69    37.82     3.25    53.81     5.29    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   14.10R    1.82  
Bristol_City    34   35   -7     -11.90     9.29    -6.79    51.89     4.82    -6.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.11R    2.93  
Crewe           34   35  -25       0.23    52.23    -5.37    47.24     4.48   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.67R   19.02  
Shrewsbury      33   32  -12      -6.29    22.96    -2.11    47.86     4.79   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.17R   13.50  
Stevenage       32   31  -20      -4.30    30.52    -6.86    46.47     4.97   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.19R   23.73  
Notts_County    34   30  -19     -11.55     9.14   -10.54    45.68     4.73   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.70R   26.44  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Burton_Albion 2 1 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         33   61  +25       3.36    65.04     7.08    84.26     4.90    32.86    54.11    94.36    99.97    96.31P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           34   60  +19       1.30    55.42     1.25    81.11     4.76    25.70    22.16    84.03    99.80    89.45P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             33   60  +17       7.64    80.97     6.50    81.08     5.02    21.80    21.38    82.04    99.69    86.89P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   56   +4       8.52    83.46     2.46    71.70     4.65     3.06     0.59     9.81    81.61    24.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15       2.76    62.32     6.72    72.59     4.65    16.75     1.05    15.87    89.08    36.15P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   53   +9       5.58    73.97     5.63    70.95     4.94     9.23     0.59     9.30    78.62    25.11P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   50   +9      -2.45    39.09     0.38    68.22     4.71    11.61     0.10     3.50    62.34    20.98P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             33   48   +2       3.80    67.78     2.76    64.56     4.82     0.61     0.01     0.59    27.71     6.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool           34   45   +1      -4.43    31.19    -3.45    62.53     4.71     2.74     0.00     0.12    17.11     4.75P    0.10R    0.01  
York                 34   43   +2      -0.57    47.78     5.56    58.62     4.63     0.95     0.00     0.02     4.17     0.87P    1.01R    0.17  
Newport_County       31   43   +1       7.15    80.85    10.89    61.37     5.39    -2.26     0.01     0.28    14.06     2.47P    0.56R    0.10  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   42   -5       2.01    60.04     4.08    56.90     4.61    -6.96     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.31P    3.04R    0.56  
Cheltenham           33   42   -6      -2.55    38.60    -5.36    58.93     4.87    -7.16     0.00     0.02     4.69     1.07P    1.33R    0.28  
Dag_&_Red            33   41   -2      -1.41    44.03     1.74    57.96     4.89    -3.06     0.00     0.00     3.46     0.75P    2.35R    0.56  
Morecambe            33   40  -11      -0.47    48.49    -4.33    55.78     4.83   -13.84     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.23P    6.78R    1.70  
Bury                 32   39   +0      -7.36    20.12    -3.81    59.33     5.30     1.70     0.00     0.05     8.12     2.24P    1.63R    0.35  
Bristol_Rovers       33   39   -2      -3.87    32.58     0.73    56.35     4.82    -2.42     0.00     0.00     1.88     0.42P    4.09R    0.95  
Exeter               34   39   -6      -6.86    21.94    -5.10    55.38     4.69    -6.08     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.24P    6.12R    1.71  
Portsmouth           33   39  -11      -8.23    17.90   -14.06    57.03     5.00   -10.72     0.00     0.01     2.38     0.62P    4.17R    0.94  
Mansfield            34   39  -13       2.04    60.35     0.88    53.12     4.64   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P   16.81R    5.47  
Wycombe              33   38   -4      -5.65    25.71    -2.17    55.12     4.85    -4.88     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.25P    6.84R    1.82  
Accrington_Stanley   33   37   -8      -2.55    39.01    -0.12    52.71     4.82   -10.91     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P   17.04R    5.16  
Northampton          33   33  -16      -6.31    22.62    -8.16    48.78     4.81   -18.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    50.12R   22.30  
Torquay              33   30  -20      -8.16    16.52   -10.08    45.13     4.83   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.00R   57.91  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 March 2014, Aldershot 2 3 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            33   75  +58       6.84    80.64    19.43   102.02     4.47    73.68    99.45   100.00    99.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    32   61  +29       7.29    81.14    14.44    84.77     4.90    36.28     0.52    98.73    32.21P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           35   57   +9      -0.74    46.79    -5.94    74.27     4.44    12.30     0.00    53.96    14.09P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    34   57   -3      14.64    95.60     5.05    75.41     4.69     0.05     0.00    60.33     7.34P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         35   54   -4      10.37    88.54     2.91    67.48     4.29    -6.59     0.00     7.17     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        34   53   -2      10.49    88.68     5.04    66.97     4.58    -6.07     0.00     6.36     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   52  +15       0.44    51.92    -0.67    78.37     5.38    22.23     0.03    81.12    25.62P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        35   52   +7       2.14    59.92     4.39    67.07     4.35     6.98     0.00     6.81     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          35   51  +12       0.65    53.03     9.06    65.94     4.51    11.56     0.00     5.49     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    33   50   +0      -1.63    42.56   -10.10    69.93     4.88     3.11     0.00    20.10     4.56P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          33   49   +7       4.04    68.00     7.73    65.80     4.86     5.28     0.00     5.78     1.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +5       0.20    51.05     0.70    65.90     5.12     4.33     0.00     7.05     1.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          34   46   +2      -8.20    16.65    -9.94    65.67     4.63     6.80     0.00     4.66     1.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   46   -3       0.14    51.15     0.94    59.84     4.38    -4.96     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.09R    0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45  +14      -4.55    28.73     2.65    68.36     5.31    18.04     0.00    16.92     4.26P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   45  +10       5.16    74.93     7.57    69.99     5.87    10.09     0.00    25.33     4.64P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   45   -9       1.92    59.26    -0.16    57.33     4.23   -14.20     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.63R    0.00  
Hereford         34   39  -13      -6.64    21.99   -10.94    54.27     4.45   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.60R    0.00  
Southport        34   37  -17      -1.92    41.56    -3.82    50.60     4.49   -21.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.35R    0.00  
Chester          34   36  -17       0.64    54.19     1.08    49.14     4.29   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.51R    0.00  
Aldershot        33   33   +4     -10.07    12.34    -8.21    55.49     4.77    11.48     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.62R    0.00  
Dartford         35   33  -22      -6.59    21.91    -7.50    45.99     4.29   -25.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.83R    0.00  
Tamworth         33   29  -23      -5.19    25.98    -5.13    41.58     4.51   -31.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.36R    0.00  
Hyde_United      35    9  -59     -18.11     0.37   -18.57    16.55     3.67   -73.92     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10