Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 28 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 February 2014, Liverpool 4 3 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          27   60  +28       7.40    85.00     3.56    82.56     4.17    39.49    37.12    70.25    89.00    99.15    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   59  +25       6.88    82.85     1.10    78.97     4.33    32.63    12.64    32.88    66.26    95.18    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.37    50.80     6.44    82.56     4.14    58.15    43.17    74.46    91.10    99.30    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        27   56  +35       2.51    63.06     7.04    77.11     4.33    44.84     7.04    22.10    51.02    91.02    99.61     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   50   +3       7.57    84.44    -4.53    67.93     4.32     7.20     0.02     0.22     1.66     8.50    78.28     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.76    21.05    -9.52    65.67     4.30    20.77     0.00     0.02     0.41     3.37    63.18     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   45  +10       3.54    68.80     1.84    65.37     4.61    15.70     0.01     0.07     0.55     3.47    56.83     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        27   40   -5       6.50    81.15     1.90    53.75     4.26    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   39   +6       2.53    63.46     7.86    53.70     4.33     4.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         27   31   -3      -3.54    31.85     1.52    43.17     4.15    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.87R    0.05  
Hull             27   30   -2       0.23    52.18     9.41    41.70     4.23    -6.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.21R    0.19  
Swansea          27   28   -4      -5.95    21.04     1.96    42.99     4.33    -4.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.65R    0.13  
Aston_Villa      27   28  -10      -2.55    37.17     0.78    40.92     4.15   -14.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.17R    0.48  
Norwich          27   28  -19      -0.46    48.41    -4.72    38.53     4.04   -26.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.63R    2.32  
Stoke            27   27  -15      -1.98    39.83    -2.23    40.37     4.28   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.65R    0.97  
Crystal_Palace   26   26  -18       2.97    68.46     2.69    35.78     4.08   -28.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.67R    9.81  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.79    11.53    -1.81    38.58     4.24   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.61R    2.37  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.08    24.01    -5.71    36.51     4.15   -23.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.83R    6.71  
Cardiff          27   22  -29      -1.19    44.42    -5.37    31.50     3.90   -38.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.38R   47.03  
Fulham           27   21  -32      -5.29    22.69   -12.22    33.14     4.18   -37.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.32R   29.93  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Barnsley 1 0 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       32   71  +27      14.07    95.64     7.08    95.83     4.98    35.64    87.04    97.19   100.00    97.87P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         32   63  +24      10.12    88.95    10.53    85.36     5.13    28.65     7.66    49.33    98.69    61.48P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   61  +20      10.60    89.34    10.06    83.76     5.10    25.47     3.92    34.25    97.40    48.00P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             31   56  +12       5.94    76.31     1.05    80.12     5.25    17.27     1.04    11.15    88.81    32.10P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   55  +18       4.92    72.02     8.62    77.47     5.09    22.92     0.25     5.84    80.18    23.33P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         32   50  +13      -2.98    36.33    -0.74    73.55     5.16    19.75     0.05     1.31    53.47    16.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           31   49   +8      -0.94    45.48    -2.86    72.37     5.28    12.35     0.02     0.74    40.14    11.14P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   46   +6      -1.38    43.30    -1.46    68.90     5.19     9.50     0.00     0.09    17.57     4.57P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       31   46   +3       1.81    59.36     0.39    67.44     5.29     4.48     0.00     0.09    11.10     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   45   +6       1.30    56.45     6.10    64.18     5.03     6.09     0.00     0.00     3.64     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    31   43   +4       0.12    50.94     3.51    64.19     5.29     4.90     0.00     0.01     4.45     0.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         32   42   +5      -6.61    21.78    -2.11    63.95     5.12     9.15     0.00     0.00     3.62     0.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   40   +5      -4.53    29.67     3.90    59.78     5.07     5.99     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.17P    0.04R    0.00  
Huddersfield    32   40   -4       1.07    55.89     3.44    57.27     4.99    -7.01     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.24R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   36   +0      -4.38    29.80     2.86    55.49     5.24    -1.47     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.03P    0.80R    0.02  
Birmingham      32   36   -2      -8.83    14.64    -3.44    55.19     5.11    -1.90     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.82R    0.01  
Bournemouth     31   36  -14       2.73    64.11     1.09    53.27     5.32   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.48R    0.18  
Blackpool       32   35  -15      -5.10    27.39    -9.59    52.41     4.91   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.35R    0.16  
Bolton          32   33  -12      -9.51    12.61    -9.79    52.27     5.12   -11.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.78R    0.25  
Doncaster       32   30  -20      -2.31    39.75    -3.03    43.48     4.78   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.74R   10.53  
Millwall        32   28  -29      -5.00    27.08   -12.28    42.19     4.73   -36.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.29R   17.80  
Charlton        29   27  -14      -8.35    13.85    -8.12    48.39     5.55   -16.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.42R    2.41  
Barnsley        31   26  -21      -6.74    19.68    -5.92    40.33     4.92   -30.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.74R   29.47  
Yeovil          31   25  -20      -4.11    30.73     0.70    39.12     4.84   -30.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.29R   39.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Colchester 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   33   67  +34      10.17    88.23    16.59    89.10     4.90    40.46    12.77    43.02    99.95    60.95P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   67  +34       5.61    75.25     5.85    96.07     5.14    46.81    65.77    89.75   100.00    94.01P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   66  +23      13.15    94.52     7.48    91.52     5.35    30.38    20.92    61.65    99.96    73.20P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   61  +13      11.36    90.62     6.45    81.47     4.91    16.88     0.36     3.59    96.33    24.03P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       32   58  +15      12.29    91.78    12.69    76.90     5.22    14.22     0.07     0.79    81.28    13.36P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    31   52  +10       0.49    52.24    -3.62    77.92     5.42    18.54     0.11     1.20    86.80    26.25P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         32   47   +6       1.27    56.27     3.11    67.78     5.14     8.35     0.00     0.00    15.12     3.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         33   46   +6      -7.19    20.40    -5.79    66.38     5.02     9.79     0.00     0.00    10.14     2.69P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         33   46   +3      -5.39    26.71    -6.12    64.81     5.02     4.39     0.00     0.00     6.02     1.51P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       32   43   -5       3.30    65.39     1.98    59.40     5.13    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.10P    1.49R    0.04  
Bradford        32   41   +5       1.55    57.85    11.46    57.87     5.05     1.44     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.06P    2.43R    0.07  
Sheff_Utd       31   38   -5      -7.89    17.22    -9.97    58.95     5.35    -4.25     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.18P    2.03R    0.09  
Gillingham      33   38  -13       0.61    53.82    -0.39    52.57     4.81   -18.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.12R    1.77  
Coventry        31   37   +3       1.04    54.82    -1.91    59.28     5.45     5.40     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.21P    1.98R    0.12  
Oldham          33   37   -9      -1.61    43.13     0.81    52.79     4.87   -11.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.69R    1.45  
Carlisle        32   36  -17       0.21    51.99    -3.52    50.74     4.89   -24.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    34.13R    4.96  
Colchester      30   35   -3      -2.08    40.64     3.02    54.65     5.47    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   11.85R    1.19  
Crawley_Town    27   35   -4       1.39    57.91     1.30    59.57     6.11    -6.22     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.25P    3.46R    0.25  
Tranmere        32   35  -17      -3.38    34.98    -8.58    53.13     5.11   -18.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.00R    2.02  
Crewe           33   34  -25       0.29    52.55    -5.74    47.04     4.68   -32.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.39R   18.35  
Bristol_City    33   32   -8     -13.09     7.07    -7.07    50.71     5.07    -6.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   29.74R    4.72  
Shrewsbury      32   31  -12      -6.04    23.38    -2.23    47.71     4.97   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.88R   13.34  
Notts_County    33   30  -13     -12.42     7.09    -8.23    47.40     4.97   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.09R   13.68  
Stevenage       31   28  -21      -5.66    24.39    -7.57    44.33     5.11   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.69R   37.95  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Cheltenham 1 4 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         33   61  +25       3.38    64.81     7.12    84.22     4.89    32.82    53.91    93.67    99.96    95.89P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           33   59  +19       1.74    57.56     1.46    81.89     4.96    26.32    28.67    85.24    99.78    90.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   57  +14       7.22    79.97     5.32    79.18     5.25    18.39    13.05    66.18    98.97    75.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +18       2.97    63.28     8.13    74.29     4.91    20.21     2.74    28.58    94.10    47.66P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   53   +3       7.38    80.55     2.13    70.35     4.87     2.47     0.44     6.98    73.72    20.32P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   52   +9       5.99    75.74     5.81    71.64     5.19     9.69     0.98    12.99    82.05    28.53P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   49   +9      -2.00    40.97     0.51    68.89     4.91    12.03     0.19     5.35    68.29    23.69P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             32   45   -3       4.09    69.29     0.27    62.35     5.01    -5.13     0.01     0.26    15.99     3.14P    0.26R    0.03  
Newport_County       30   42   +1       7.31    81.67    10.46    61.06     5.59    -3.25     0.01     0.36    14.02     2.51P    1.13R    0.27  
Hartlepool           33   42   -2      -4.89    29.09    -4.85    60.92     4.93    -0.22     0.00     0.08    11.00     2.95P    0.61R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   41   -5       2.31    61.56     4.11    56.89     4.81    -7.56     0.00     0.00     2.25     0.36P    4.37R    1.08  
York                 33   40   +1      -1.59    43.14     5.30    56.77     4.84    -0.31     0.00     0.01     2.48     0.49P    4.01R    1.08  
Dag_&_Red            32   40   -2      -1.11    45.33     1.70    58.64     5.15    -2.63     0.00     0.02     5.53     1.21P    2.59R    0.76  
Morecambe            32   40   -6      -0.96    46.09    -2.19    57.76     5.06    -7.89     0.00     0.01     3.77     0.79P    3.67R    0.95  
Bury                 31   39   +1      -6.35    22.99    -3.33    60.94     5.48     3.04     0.00     0.23    14.49     4.18P    1.10R    0.27  
Exeter               33   39   -5      -5.84    25.34    -4.66    56.84     4.92    -4.92     0.00     0.00     2.42     0.60P    4.61R    1.38  
Cheltenham           32   39   -7      -3.78    33.04    -5.74    57.11     5.12    -8.40     0.00     0.01     3.05     0.69P    4.88R    1.38  
Portsmouth           33   39  -11      -8.23    17.65   -14.07    57.22     4.95   -10.42     0.00     0.01     2.59     0.73P    4.37R    1.17  
Bristol_Rovers       32   38   -2      -3.42    34.50     0.95    56.68     5.07    -2.49     0.00     0.01     2.83     0.60P    5.03R    1.58  
Mansfield            33   38  -13       2.34    61.85     0.95    53.13     4.84   -16.84     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03P   20.13R    7.72  
Wycombe              32   37   -4      -5.33    26.86    -2.24    55.22     5.10    -5.20     0.00     0.00     1.65     0.42P    8.70R    2.88  
Accrington_Stanley   32   37   -7      -1.61    43.23     0.21    53.85     5.01   -10.16     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.16P   14.29R    4.96  
Northampton          32   32  -16      -6.19    22.69    -8.45    49.06     5.04   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   50.47R   26.13  
Torquay              32   30  -17      -8.05    16.32    -8.91    46.52     5.04   -20.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    69.78R   48.23  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Braintree_Town 1 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            32   72  +55       6.67    80.19    18.94   101.39     4.62    72.57    99.52   100.00    99.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    31   58  +25       7.20    81.34    12.73    83.04     5.11    32.00     0.44    95.71    28.90P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           34   57  +11       0.27    50.97    -4.55    76.87     4.63    16.21     0.00    70.57    20.78P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    33   57   +0      14.82    95.89     5.70    75.99     4.81     1.34     0.00    60.26     7.68P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.98    89.76     5.55    67.73     4.76    -5.03     0.00     7.59     1.04P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         34   53   -4      10.75    89.89     2.81    67.52     4.49    -7.04     0.00     6.22     0.78P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        34   51   +7       2.39    61.32     4.18    67.72     4.53     7.35     0.00     7.73     1.41P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    32   50   +4      -1.94    40.71    -8.82    71.47     5.02     7.49     0.00    27.00     6.86P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   49  +13       0.00    49.77    -0.83    77.19     5.55    20.94     0.04    70.67    21.36P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.24    51.39     9.14    64.93     4.74    10.49     0.00     3.31     0.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield     31   47   +6       0.98    54.91     0.82    67.11     5.32     5.07     0.00     9.32     1.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          32   46   +6       3.07    64.50     7.80    64.29     5.08     4.47     0.00     3.03     0.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green     30   44  +14      -4.20    29.87     2.58    68.54     5.51    17.73     0.00    15.98     4.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          33   43   +0      -9.34    13.03   -11.22    63.74     4.86     4.34     0.00     1.78     0.47P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   43   -4      -1.64    42.68    -0.34    57.29     4.52    -7.41     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.87R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   27   42   +9       4.49    72.51     8.19    69.45     6.00    10.97     0.00    20.74     3.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           34   42  -11       0.71    53.94    -1.48    54.66     4.40   -17.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.96R    0.00  
Hereford         33   39  -11      -6.02    23.98   -10.15    56.00     4.67   -12.06     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.11R    0.00  
Chester          33   35  -17       1.25    57.22     1.12    49.64     4.54   -22.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.58R    0.00  
Southport        33   34  -20      -2.19    39.86    -4.55    48.94     4.72   -24.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.55R    0.00  
Aldershot        32   33   +5      -8.93    14.72    -7.66    57.82     4.95    13.95     0.00     0.05     0.02P    1.19R    0.00  
Dartford         34   33  -19      -6.15    23.35    -6.04    47.35     4.51   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.82R    0.00  
Tamworth         32   29  -21      -4.87    27.06    -4.83    42.38     4.70   -30.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.86R    0.00  
Hyde_United      34    9  -58     -17.60     0.45   -19.09    16.94     3.78   -74.82     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10