Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 27 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 February 2014, Liverpool 4 3 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          27   60  +28       7.41    85.02     3.55    82.49     4.17    39.41    37.01    70.30    88.95    99.14    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   59  +25       6.87    82.84     1.04    78.95     4.31    32.58    12.52    32.99    66.57    95.09    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.37    50.67     6.31    82.54     4.14    58.17    43.36    74.67    91.15    99.37    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        27   56  +35       2.60    63.41     7.23    77.02     4.33    44.73     7.08    21.67    50.65    90.79    99.66     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   50   +3       7.52    84.12    -4.57    67.95     4.33     7.20     0.02     0.28     1.77     8.79    78.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.63    21.57    -9.36    65.64     4.34    20.70     0.00     0.04     0.42     3.43    62.86     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   45  +10       3.68    69.42     2.06    65.32     4.62    15.63     0.01     0.05     0.51     3.38    56.25     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        27   40   -5       6.60    81.62     2.07    53.72     4.27    -7.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   39   +6       2.54    63.85     7.91    53.73     4.36     4.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         27   31   -3      -3.74    30.93     1.23    43.26     4.18    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.81R    0.05  
Hull             27   30   -2       0.13    52.00     9.26    41.74     4.19    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.04R    0.20  
Swansea          27   28   -4      -5.80    21.80     2.12    42.94     4.34    -4.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.87R    0.15  
Aston_Villa      27   28  -10      -2.42    37.88     0.97    40.90     4.16   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.17R    0.55  
Norwich          27   28  -19      -0.53    48.09    -4.80    38.60     4.06   -26.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.77R    2.18  
Stoke            27   27  -15      -2.06    39.09    -2.31    40.34     4.30   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.08R    1.05  
Crystal_Palace   26   26  -18       3.03    68.76     2.89    35.73     4.07   -28.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.27R   10.29  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.76    11.46    -1.84    38.55     4.26   -11.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.99R    2.41  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.11    24.02    -5.82    36.59     4.16   -23.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.26R    6.68  
Cardiff          27   22  -29      -1.36    43.46    -5.56    31.61     3.92   -37.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.69R   46.41  
Fulham           27   21  -32      -5.39    22.47   -12.37    33.16     4.18   -37.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R   30.04  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Barnsley 1 0 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       32   71  +27      13.73    95.40     6.62    95.88     4.97    35.72    87.04    97.29   100.00    98.09P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         32   63  +24      10.13    88.98    10.54    85.38     5.12    28.71     7.72    48.79    98.83    61.38P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   61  +20      10.54    89.22     9.97    83.86     5.13    25.62     3.83    34.77    97.51    48.67P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             31   56  +12       5.81    75.95     0.85    80.18     5.26    17.37     1.07    11.44    88.86    32.47P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   55  +18       4.83    71.48     8.51    77.46     5.08    22.92     0.29     5.46    80.28    22.88P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         32   50  +13      -2.77    37.11    -0.46    73.44     5.15    19.54     0.02     1.20    52.37    15.33P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           31   49   +8      -0.97    45.52    -2.99    72.46     5.31    12.42     0.02     0.87    41.01    11.55P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   46   +6      -1.35    43.63    -1.33    68.84     5.23     9.42     0.00     0.10    17.56     4.49P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       31   46   +3       1.89    59.44     0.49    67.35     5.31     4.35     0.00     0.06    11.12     2.48P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   45   +6       1.31    56.79     6.19    64.08     5.05     5.97     0.00     0.00     3.64     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    31   43   +4       0.23    51.70     3.66    64.16     5.32     4.83     0.00     0.01     4.51     0.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         32   42   +5      -6.36    22.63    -1.78    63.84     5.11     9.02     0.00     0.00     3.43     0.90P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   40   +5      -4.31    30.63     4.20    59.71     5.07     5.89     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.14P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield    32   40   -4       0.87    55.10     3.11    57.43     5.02    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.22R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   36   +0      -4.34    29.92     2.86    55.44     5.20    -1.53     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.73R    0.02  
Birmingham      32   36   -2      -8.99    14.01    -3.61    55.30     5.13    -1.76     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.84R    0.03  
Bournemouth     31   36  -14       2.69    64.17     1.11    53.28     5.27   -19.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.34R    0.20  
Blackpool       32   35  -15      -5.16    26.88    -9.67    52.43     4.89   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.24R    0.16  
Bolton          32   33  -12      -9.60    12.29    -9.93    52.32     5.16   -11.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.87R    0.27  
Doncaster       32   30  -20      -2.16    40.32    -2.83    43.44     4.77   -28.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.95R   10.73  
Millwall        32   28  -29      -4.88    27.54   -12.11    42.17     4.71   -36.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.50R   17.55  
Charlton        29   27  -14      -8.42    13.59    -8.21    48.40     5.61   -16.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.50R    2.56  
Barnsley        31   26  -21      -6.85    19.02    -6.14    40.37     4.92   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.34R   29.17  
Yeovil          31   25  -20      -3.93    31.34     0.94    39.08     4.82   -30.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.42R   39.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Colchester 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   33   67  +34      10.11    88.01    16.40    89.13     4.89    40.46    12.35    43.40    99.97    61.37P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   67  +34       5.39    74.37     5.51    96.17     5.18    46.97    66.61    89.84   100.00    94.21P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   66  +23      13.20    94.58     7.62    91.48     5.38    30.28    20.39    61.18    99.97    72.76P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   61  +13      11.29    90.50     6.33    81.49     4.90    16.89     0.43     3.62    96.49    23.80P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       32   58  +15      12.54    92.19    13.09    76.84     5.26    14.10     0.10     0.83    81.22    13.23P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    31   52  +10       0.39    51.72    -3.78    77.93     5.41    18.60     0.12     1.12    86.88    26.47P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         32   47   +6       1.50    57.18     3.47    67.66     5.16     8.21     0.00     0.00    14.88     3.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         33   46   +6      -7.10    20.65    -5.71    66.35     5.02     9.74     0.00     0.00    10.07     2.69P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons         33   46   +3      -5.61    25.92    -6.42    64.87     4.97     4.52     0.00     0.00     5.99     1.46P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale       32   43   -5       3.57    66.35     2.36    59.31     5.10   -10.08     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.10P    1.51R    0.02  
Bradford        32   41   +5       1.45    57.34    11.32    57.95     5.07     1.57     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P    2.35R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd       31   38   -5      -7.89    17.25    -9.96    58.95     5.35    -4.26     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.16P    2.12R    0.09  
Gillingham      33   38  -13       0.50    53.21    -0.60    52.57     4.81   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   20.42R    1.65  
Coventry        31   37   +3       0.86    54.19    -2.22    59.36     5.41     5.50     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.26P    1.90R    0.08  
Oldham          33   37   -9      -1.48    43.85     0.97    52.75     4.85   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.08R    1.51  
Carlisle        32   36  -17       0.15    51.73    -3.65    50.79     4.90   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.93R    5.03  
Colchester      30   35   -3      -1.89    41.62     3.36    54.59     5.45    -6.77     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   12.01R    1.11  
Crawley_Town    27   35   -4       1.31    57.44     1.21    59.59     6.15    -6.17     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.27P    3.55R    0.30  
Tranmere        32   35  -17      -3.37    34.84    -8.51    53.12     5.09   -18.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.80R    2.06  
Crewe           33   34  -25       0.34    52.90    -5.67    47.02     4.67   -32.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.35R   18.05  
Bristol_City    33   32   -8     -13.01     6.92    -6.94    50.71     5.04    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    29.77R    4.66  
Shrewsbury      32   31  -12      -6.13    23.11    -2.33    47.75     4.99   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.87R   13.35  
Notts_County    33   30  -13     -12.45     7.11    -8.28    47.45     4.99   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.58R   13.46  
Stevenage       31   28  -21      -5.65    24.35    -7.57    44.28     5.08   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.72R   38.56  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Cheltenham 1 4 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         33   61  +25       3.17    64.12     6.85    84.25     4.89    32.88    54.01    93.86    99.98    96.08P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           33   59  +19       1.83    57.79     1.61    81.88     4.99    26.28    28.54    85.10    99.84    90.13P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   57  +14       7.31    80.11     5.42    79.22     5.26    18.43    13.03    66.41    98.94    75.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +18       2.82    62.72     7.92    74.38     4.92    20.32     2.85    28.92    94.40    47.92P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   53   +3       7.52    80.81     2.29    70.30     4.88     2.39     0.42     6.88    73.60    20.28P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   52   +9       6.02    75.98     5.77    71.67     5.15     9.71     0.94    12.60    82.53    28.23P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   49   +9      -2.02    40.69     0.52    68.88     4.91    12.03     0.20     5.30    68.42    23.82P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             32   45   -3       4.01    69.05     0.17    62.42     4.94    -5.02     0.00     0.22    16.00     3.14P    0.21R    0.03  
Newport_County       30   42   +1       7.43    82.07    10.57    60.98     5.55    -3.35     0.01     0.30    13.66     2.42P    1.09R    0.28  
Hartlepool           33   42   -2      -4.92    28.87    -4.87    60.87     4.93    -0.31     0.00     0.05    10.84     2.76P    0.71R    0.15  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   41   -5       2.25    61.42     4.09    56.91     4.81    -7.55     0.00     0.00     2.34     0.41P    4.46R    1.15  
York                 33   40   +1      -1.68    42.55     5.25    56.80     4.82    -0.24     0.00     0.00     2.59     0.54P    3.83R    1.05  
Dag_&_Red            32   40   -2      -1.08    45.48     1.76    58.65     5.13    -2.65     0.00     0.04     5.54     1.19P    2.48R    0.63  
Morecambe            32   40   -6      -0.90    46.38    -2.06    57.66     5.06    -8.03     0.00     0.02     3.54     0.68P    3.69R    0.99  
Bury                 31   39   +1      -6.30    22.92    -3.30    60.90     5.48     3.01     0.01     0.25    14.39     4.20P    1.17R    0.28  
Exeter               33   39   -5      -5.71    25.80    -4.46    56.78     4.94    -4.98     0.00     0.00     2.37     0.58P    4.74R    1.42  
Cheltenham           32   39   -7      -3.86    32.74    -5.89    57.12     5.07    -8.40     0.00     0.01     2.91     0.62P    4.74R    1.32  
Portsmouth           33   39  -11      -8.20    17.90   -14.08    57.21     4.98   -10.46     0.00     0.00     2.64     0.72P    4.47R    1.24  
Bristol_Rovers       32   38   -2      -3.33    34.99     1.09    56.66     5.09    -2.52     0.00     0.01     2.79     0.61P    5.35R    1.67  
Mansfield            33   38  -13       2.07    60.60     0.50    53.22     4.84   -16.68     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P   19.32R    7.24  
Wycombe              32   37   -4      -5.20    26.98    -2.03    55.22     5.11    -5.21     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.35P    8.86R    2.99  
Accrington_Stanley   32   37   -7      -1.65    42.95     0.11    53.94     5.00   -10.04     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.14P   13.92R    4.67  
Northampton          32   32  -16      -6.15    22.98    -8.38    49.02     5.04   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   50.81R   26.42  
Torquay              32   30  -17      -8.01    16.54    -8.85    46.48     5.00   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   70.14R   48.48  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Braintree_Town 1 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            32   72  +55       6.63    79.97    18.90   101.34     4.63    72.40    99.49   100.00    99.70P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    31   58  +25       7.29    81.69    12.84    83.05     5.15    32.01     0.45    95.60    28.68P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           34   57  +11       0.34    51.50    -4.37    76.83     4.64    16.15     0.01    70.09    20.63P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    33   57   +0      14.82    95.93     5.67    75.97     4.80     1.33     0.00    60.20     7.87P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.64    88.98     5.04    67.91     4.77    -4.78     0.00     8.40     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         34   53   -4      10.57    89.51     2.50    67.61     4.50    -6.88     0.00     6.50     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        34   51   +7       2.38    60.91     4.16    67.67     4.56     7.30     0.00     7.82     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    32   50   +4      -1.54    42.67    -8.16    71.37     5.06     7.27     0.00    26.41     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   49  +13       0.09    50.34    -0.74    77.12     5.59    20.84     0.05    70.22    21.33P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.07    50.63     8.82    64.98     4.73    10.63     0.00     3.37     0.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     31   47   +6       0.94    54.56     0.69    67.10     5.33     5.11     0.00     9.22     1.86P    0.00     0.00  
Welling          32   46   +6       2.81    63.31     7.41    64.35     5.09     4.53     0.00     3.22     0.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     30   44  +14      -4.22    29.71     2.51    68.57     5.49    17.82     0.00    15.88     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          33   43   +0      -9.04    14.13   -10.75    63.62     4.90     4.15     0.00     1.85     0.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   43   -4      -1.58    42.90    -0.30    57.29     4.53    -7.41     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.82R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   27   42   +9       4.24    71.64     7.86    69.55     5.97    11.12     0.01    21.09     4.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           34   42  -11       0.78    54.02    -1.37    54.67     4.39   -17.90     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.82R    0.00  
Hereford         33   39  -11      -5.82    24.56    -9.82    56.00     4.69   -12.09     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.12R    0.00  
Chester          33   35  -17       1.02    56.03     0.79    49.75     4.53   -22.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.15R    0.00  
Southport        33   34  -20      -2.18    39.95    -4.61    48.91     4.72   -24.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.25R    0.00  
Aldershot        32   33   +5      -8.85    15.09    -7.49    57.74     4.97    13.85     0.00     0.05     0.02P    1.31R    0.00  
Dartford         34   33  -19      -6.30    22.61    -6.33    47.39     4.51   -22.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.21R    0.00  
Tamworth         32   29  -21      -4.74    27.69    -4.60    42.32     4.68   -30.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.29R    0.00  
Hyde_United      34    9  -58     -17.34     0.42   -18.66    16.81     3.76   -75.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10