Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 26 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 February 2014, Liverpool 4 3 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          27   60  +28       7.44    85.10     3.65    82.52     4.16    39.45    37.24    70.36    88.81    99.16   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   59  +25       6.89    83.07     1.09    78.96     4.32    32.62    12.64    32.89    66.59    95.14    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.33    50.48     6.39    82.55     4.12    58.16    43.15    74.82    91.18    99.26    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        27   56  +35       2.58    63.27     7.20    77.03     4.34    44.75     6.94    21.66    50.77    90.81    99.64     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   50   +3       7.53    84.26    -4.55    67.96     4.30     7.23     0.02     0.19     1.68     8.64    78.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.64    21.82    -9.35    65.67     4.37    20.77     0.00     0.02     0.42     3.55    62.86     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   45  +10       3.55    68.77     1.85    65.37     4.60    15.73     0.00     0.05     0.55     3.44    56.54     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        27   40   -5       6.51    81.17     1.87    53.78     4.29    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   39   +6       2.56    63.83     7.93    53.68     4.32     4.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         27   31   -3      -3.54    32.09     1.46    43.18     4.15    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.88R    0.06  
Hull             27   30   -2       0.16    51.81     9.28    41.74     4.21    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.11R    0.17  
Swansea          27   28   -4      -5.79    21.79     2.11    42.97     4.34    -4.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.77R    0.15  
Aston_Villa      27   28  -10      -2.40    37.79     1.01    40.88     4.17   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.29R    0.55  
Norwich          27   28  -19      -0.47    48.32    -4.73    38.56     4.05   -26.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.75R    2.28  
Stoke            27   27  -15      -1.99    39.94    -2.24    40.34     4.28   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.02R    0.94  
Crystal_Palace   26   26  -18       2.99    68.57     2.77    35.77     4.09   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.80R   10.26  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.86    11.23    -2.00    38.56     4.27   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.62R    2.58  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.13    23.90    -5.76    36.53     4.17   -23.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.08R    6.78  
Cardiff          27   22  -29      -1.38    43.67    -5.63    31.63     3.96   -37.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.29R   46.08  
Fulham           27   21  -32      -5.37    22.25   -12.37    33.12     4.18   -37.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.39R   30.15  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Barnsley 1 0 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       32   71  +27      13.90    95.48     6.83    95.88     4.99    35.69    87.00    97.29   100.00    98.09P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         32   63  +24       9.92    88.24    10.23    85.48     5.15    28.82     8.08    50.59    98.84    62.79P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   61  +20      10.87    89.83    10.45    83.64     5.14    25.26     3.58    32.82    97.25    46.64P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             31   56  +12       5.94    76.37     1.05    80.07     5.24    17.23     1.02    11.12    88.65    32.13P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   55  +18       4.81    71.37     8.45    77.56     5.08    23.04     0.26     5.77    80.87    23.22P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         32   50  +13      -2.93    36.37    -0.68    73.49     5.16    19.70     0.04     1.37    53.03    16.28P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           31   49   +8      -0.79    46.26    -2.73    72.33     5.32    12.26     0.03     0.87    39.91    11.34P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   46   +6      -1.33    43.46    -1.29    68.86     5.20     9.44     0.00     0.10    17.58     4.52P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       31   46   +3       1.71    58.70     0.24    67.43     5.31     4.48     0.00     0.07    11.16     2.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   45   +6       1.32    56.78     6.22    64.09     5.06     5.96     0.00     0.01     3.74     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    31   43   +4       0.22    51.52     3.63    64.18     5.30     4.87     0.00     0.01     4.40     0.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Watford         32   42   +5      -6.50    22.31    -1.92    63.90     5.13     9.08     0.00     0.01     3.70     0.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   40   +5      -4.65    29.10     3.73    59.88     5.06     6.11     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Huddersfield    32   40   -4       0.91    54.96     3.21    57.35     5.01    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.24R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       31   36   +0      -4.25    30.40     3.00    55.40     5.24    -1.58     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.83R    0.03  
Birmingham      32   36   -2      -8.94    14.05    -3.58    55.26     5.13    -1.83     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.82R    0.03  
Bournemouth     31   36  -14       2.91    64.95     1.46    53.19     5.28   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.57R    0.22  
Blackpool       32   35  -15      -5.15    26.84    -9.68    52.43     4.89   -17.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.18R    0.18  
Bolton          32   33  -12      -9.66    12.05   -10.00    52.36     5.12   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.75R    0.21  
Doncaster       32   30  -20      -2.32    39.64    -3.12    43.55     4.78   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.23R   10.20  
Millwall        32   28  -29      -5.06    26.62   -12.40    42.24     4.72   -36.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.94R   17.45  
Charlton        29   27  -14      -8.35    13.85    -8.07    48.35     5.53   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.51R    2.38  
Barnsley        31   26  -21      -6.70    19.70    -5.85    40.28     4.91   -30.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.17R   29.79  
Yeovil          31   25  -20      -4.01    31.21     0.85    39.10     4.83   -30.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.71R   39.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Colchester 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   33   67  +34      10.06    87.90    16.35    89.17     4.89    40.53    12.57    43.41    99.97    61.17P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   67  +34       5.41    74.36     5.57    96.13     5.17    46.91    66.54    89.68   100.00    94.12P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   66  +23      13.12    94.44     7.50    91.48     5.35    30.28    20.34    61.33    99.97    73.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   61  +13      11.19    90.22     6.24    81.49     4.94    16.91     0.40     3.64    96.28    24.37P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       32   58  +15      12.33    91.85    12.77    76.86     5.21    14.15     0.06     0.83    81.68    13.31P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    31   52  +10       0.45    51.79    -3.68    77.88     5.40    18.54     0.09     1.11    86.64    25.96P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         32   47   +6       1.28    56.35     3.19    67.72     5.16     8.28     0.00     0.00    14.88     3.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon         33   46   +6      -7.00    21.01    -5.53    66.36     5.03     9.72     0.00     0.00    10.13     2.67P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         33   46   +3      -5.37    26.73    -6.11    64.83     5.03     4.46     0.00     0.00     5.92     1.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale       32   43   -5       3.61    66.55     2.45    59.27     5.12   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.09P    1.59R    0.04  
Bradford        32   41   +5       1.24    56.49    10.97    57.98     5.08     1.63     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09P    2.24R    0.06  
Sheff_Utd       31   38   -5      -7.90    17.03   -10.03    59.01     5.31    -4.18     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.15P    2.02R    0.08  
Gillingham      33   38  -13       0.47    53.25    -0.67    52.56     4.81   -18.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.49R    1.74  
Coventry        31   37   +3       1.05    55.10    -1.86    59.32     5.46     5.40     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.22P    1.83R    0.10  
Oldham          33   37   -9      -1.34    44.41     1.21    52.63     4.85   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.82R    1.58  
Carlisle        32   36  -17       0.18    51.72    -3.62    50.81     4.90   -24.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    33.61R    4.79  
Colchester      30   35   -3      -2.05    40.78     3.07    54.64     5.43    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   11.70R    1.15  
Crawley_Town    27   35   -4       1.10    56.12     0.91    59.70     6.11    -6.01     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.27P    3.26R    0.27  
Tranmere        32   35  -17      -3.21    35.63    -8.31    53.02     5.13   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.63R    2.19  
Crewe           33   34  -25       0.52    53.62    -5.42    47.00     4.66   -32.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.59R   18.06  
Bristol_City    33   32   -8     -12.99     7.07    -6.93    50.72     5.09    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.73R    4.74  
Shrewsbury      32   31  -12      -6.12    23.07    -2.29    47.74     4.99   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.23R   13.32  
Notts_County    33   30  -13     -12.37     6.98    -8.16    47.43     4.99   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.59R   13.80  
Stevenage       31   28  -21      -5.69    24.01    -7.61    44.31     5.12   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.62R   38.09  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Cheltenham 1 4 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         33   61  +25       3.21    64.23     6.88    84.26     4.90    32.88    53.73    93.57    99.97    95.81P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           33   59  +19       1.69    57.18     1.31    81.94     4.96    26.41    28.89    85.32    99.81    90.29P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   57  +14       7.25    79.77     5.35    79.19     5.24    18.42    12.86    66.61    98.80    75.18P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +18       2.85    62.98     7.91    74.34     4.89    20.25     2.98    28.61    94.12    47.67P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   53   +3       7.46    80.95     2.27    70.30     4.87     2.42     0.35     6.87    73.46    20.30P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   52   +9       6.28    76.78     6.17    71.59     5.19     9.60     0.95    12.85    81.98    27.93P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   49   +9      -2.16    40.23     0.32    68.96     4.88    12.10     0.22     5.26    68.69    23.96P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             32   45   -3       4.06    69.42     0.22    62.40     5.00    -5.05     0.01     0.25    16.43     3.25P    0.28R    0.04  
Newport_County       30   42   +1       7.45    82.00    10.64    60.95     5.57    -3.40     0.00     0.27    13.49     2.35P    1.18R    0.31  
Hartlepool           33   42   -2      -4.99    28.63    -4.96    60.91     4.95    -0.22     0.00     0.08    11.03     3.08P    0.62R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   41   -5       2.22    61.26     4.02    56.96     4.82    -7.49     0.00     0.00     2.38     0.38P    4.25R    1.10  
York                 33   40   +1      -1.68    42.74     5.26    56.75     4.85    -0.34     0.00     0.00     2.45     0.50P    4.09R    1.15  
Dag_&_Red            32   40   -2      -1.12    45.25     1.67    58.69     5.11    -2.57     0.00     0.03     5.74     1.20P    2.44R    0.67  
Morecambe            32   40   -6      -0.64    47.77    -1.68    57.59     5.06    -8.12     0.00     0.02     3.45     0.75P    3.97R    1.06  
Bury                 31   39   +1      -6.47    22.50    -3.47    60.93     5.48     3.04     0.00     0.21    14.71     4.22P    1.10R    0.29  
Exeter               33   39   -5      -5.65    25.90    -4.41    56.72     4.90    -5.07     0.00     0.00     2.25     0.48P    4.77R    1.35  
Cheltenham           32   39   -7      -3.66    33.68    -5.58    57.05     5.12    -8.50     0.00     0.01     2.88     0.67P    5.01R    1.55  
Portsmouth           33   39  -11      -8.31    17.51   -14.21    57.28     5.00   -10.35     0.00     0.01     2.78     0.78P    4.53R    1.27  
Bristol_Rovers       32   38   -2      -3.34    34.97     1.05    56.65     5.09    -2.52     0.00     0.01     2.94     0.67P    5.31R    1.59  
Mansfield            33   38  -13       2.03    60.38     0.50    53.26     4.88   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   19.54R    7.78  
Wycombe              32   37   -4      -5.08    27.86    -1.91    55.17     5.09    -5.29     0.00     0.01     1.51     0.36P    8.87R    3.01  
Accrington_Stanley   32   37   -7      -1.56    43.43     0.27    53.88     5.00   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.12P   14.38R    4.83  
Northampton          32   32  -16      -6.21    22.79    -8.42    49.04     5.05   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   50.58R   26.54  
Torquay              32   30  -17      -8.26    15.93    -9.21    46.61     5.02   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    69.09R   47.34  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Braintree_Town 1 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            32   72  +55       6.74    80.56    19.05   101.40     4.60    72.50    99.50   100.00    99.74P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    31   58  +25       7.10    81.35    12.58    83.08     5.12    32.05     0.46    95.81    29.12P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           34   57  +11       0.41    51.66    -4.26    76.85     4.61    16.16     0.00    70.54    20.51P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    33   57   +0      14.83    95.83     5.67    75.95     4.83     1.29     0.01    59.71     7.43P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.83    89.47     5.36    67.78     4.74    -4.97     0.00     7.62     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         34   53   -4      10.79    89.86     2.82    67.52     4.48    -7.00     0.00     6.19     0.78P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        34   51   +7       2.41    61.54     4.23    67.68     4.54     7.30     0.00     7.65     1.43P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    32   50   +4      -1.90    40.94    -8.78    71.45     5.04     7.40     0.00    27.08     6.92P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   49  +13      -0.14    49.02    -1.01    77.26     5.60    21.06     0.03    71.12    21.52P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.04    50.46     8.82    64.98     4.76    10.62     0.00     3.55     0.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     31   47   +6       1.14    55.81     1.04    67.02     5.34     4.96     0.00     9.07     1.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          32   46   +6       2.90    63.59     7.50    64.35     5.06     4.55     0.00     2.99     0.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     30   44  +14      -4.10    30.59     2.70    68.50     5.53    17.70     0.00    16.09     4.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          33   43   +0      -9.21    13.39   -10.95    63.64     4.90     4.21     0.00     1.84     0.51P    0.04R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   43   -4      -1.52    43.38    -0.18    57.28     4.54    -7.41     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.82R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   27   42   +9       4.43    72.24     8.14    69.46     5.98    10.96     0.00    20.64     4.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking           34   42  -11       0.71    53.99    -1.48    54.69     4.38   -17.89     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.90R    0.00  
Hereford         33   39  -11      -5.96    24.27   -10.06    56.01     4.68   -12.04     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.17R    0.00  
Chester          33   35  -17       1.15    56.59     1.03    49.70     4.53   -22.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.34R    0.00  
Southport        33   34  -20      -2.36    39.15    -4.83    49.00     4.73   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.61R    0.00  
Aldershot        32   33   +5      -8.91    14.79    -7.60    57.82     4.95    13.97     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.24R    0.00  
Dartford         34   33  -19      -6.38    22.66    -6.33    47.41     4.52   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.40R    0.00  
Tamworth         32   29  -21      -4.73    27.72    -4.65    42.32     4.68   -30.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.45R    0.00  
Hyde_United      34    9  -58     -17.40     0.49   -18.80    16.84     3.75   -74.96     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10