Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 25 February 2014 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 February 2014, Liverpool 4 3 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          27   60  +28       7.38    85.01     3.64    82.54     4.16    39.44    37.42    70.63    89.13    99.12    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   59  +25       6.93    83.40     1.15    78.95     4.30    32.58    12.29    32.41    65.85    95.11    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   57  +42       0.52    51.75     6.72    82.52     4.12    58.07    43.25    74.29    91.01    99.30    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        27   56  +35       2.58    63.19     7.18    77.11     4.32    44.84     7.03    22.39    51.43    91.10    99.62     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   50   +3       7.40    83.82    -4.77    67.96     4.33     7.26     0.01     0.23     1.73     8.45    78.36     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   45  +12      -5.74    21.21    -9.48    65.68     4.32    20.77     0.00     0.02     0.37     3.44    63.24     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   45  +10       3.53    68.70     1.81    65.37     4.63    15.72     0.00     0.03     0.49     3.48    56.66     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        27   40   -5       6.60    81.64     2.02    53.75     4.28    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   39   +6       2.64    64.02     8.05    53.57     4.35     4.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         27   31   -3      -3.55    31.87     1.45    43.21     4.16    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.85R    0.06  
Hull             27   30   -2       0.28    52.72     9.50    41.68     4.21    -6.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.19R    0.20  
Swansea          27   28   -4      -5.78    21.71     2.17    42.96     4.35    -4.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.86R    0.16  
Aston_Villa      27   28  -10      -2.58    36.99     0.75    40.89     4.17   -14.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.27R    0.53  
Norwich          27   28  -19      -0.41    48.64    -4.68    38.54     4.02   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.57R    2.13  
Stoke            27   27  -15      -2.07    39.30    -2.40    40.40     4.29   -17.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.75R    0.98  
Crystal_Palace   26   26  -18       2.90    68.25     2.60    35.77     4.06   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.53R    9.73  
West_Brom        27   25   -8      -8.72    11.38    -1.75    38.57     4.29   -11.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.98R    2.65  
Sunderland       26   24  -16      -5.17    23.89    -5.88    36.56     4.17   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.60R    6.56  
Cardiff          27   22  -29      -1.36    43.35    -5.68    31.58     3.93   -37.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.98R   46.80  
Fulham           27   21  -32      -5.40    22.59   -12.39    33.12     4.16   -37.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.41R   30.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2014, Barnsley 1 0 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester       32   71  +27      13.75    95.36     6.65    95.92     4.96    35.74    87.55    97.41   100.00    98.13P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         32   63  +24      10.16    89.36    10.59    85.32     5.10    28.62     7.45    49.14    98.81    61.72P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   61  +20      10.56    89.37     9.99    83.79     5.10    25.53     3.75    34.39    97.71    48.29P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             31   56  +12       6.13    77.07     1.27    80.03     5.28    17.15     0.95    10.95    88.36    31.82P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   55  +18       4.94    71.97     8.69    77.46     5.10    22.88     0.24     5.95    80.33    23.27P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         32   50  +13      -2.63    37.99    -0.23    73.39     5.16    19.50     0.04     1.24    52.36    15.68P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan           31   49   +8      -0.99    45.20    -2.95    72.42     5.31    12.41     0.01     0.77    41.01    11.53P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   46   +6      -1.18    44.14    -1.20    68.87     5.18     9.45     0.00     0.10    17.65     4.59P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       31   46   +3       1.86    59.14     0.47    67.40     5.29     4.39     0.00     0.05    11.20     2.27P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   45   +6       1.35    56.56     6.21    64.08     5.04     5.96     0.00     0.00     3.60     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    31   43   +4       0.24    51.66     3.69    64.13     5.29     4.83     0.00     0.01     4.35     0.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Watford         32   42   +5      -6.55    21.84    -2.00    63.86     5.14     9.04     0.00     0.00     3.70     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   40   +5      -4.49    29.71     3.93    59.79     5.07     6.02     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.14P    0.06R    0.00  
Huddersfield    32   40   -4       0.90    55.09     3.10    57.38     5.01    -6.84     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.26R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       31   36   +0      -4.38    29.72     2.80    55.48     5.23    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.81R    0.03  
Birmingham      32   36   -2      -8.92    14.08    -3.53    55.25     5.11    -1.82     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.84R    0.02  
Bournemouth     31   36  -14       2.55    63.46     0.80    53.40     5.24   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.15R    0.17  
Blackpool       32   35  -15      -5.36    26.39    -9.92    52.43     4.91   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.40R    0.19  
Bolton          32   33  -12      -9.62    12.33    -9.95    52.30     5.15   -11.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.03R    0.30  
Doncaster       32   30  -20      -2.33    39.53    -3.09    43.55     4.78   -28.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.11R   10.28  
Millwall        32   28  -29      -4.74    27.89   -11.94    42.14     4.73   -36.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.79R   18.12  
Charlton        29   27  -14      -8.49    13.39    -8.24    48.46     5.54   -16.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.22R    2.35  
Barnsley        31   26  -21      -6.60    20.00    -5.71    40.28     4.92   -30.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.28R   29.90  
Yeovil          31   25  -20      -4.22    30.05     0.55    39.16     4.83   -30.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.04R   38.63  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Colchester 0 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient   33   67  +34      10.17    87.95    16.48    89.13     4.90    40.48    12.52    43.50    99.97    61.08P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   67  +34       5.49    74.86     5.64    96.15     5.20    46.96    66.43    89.86   100.00    94.26P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   66  +23      13.04    94.35     7.40    91.48     5.36    30.29    20.40    60.90    99.98    72.74P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   61  +13      11.26    90.34     6.28    81.54     4.93    16.96     0.43     3.80    96.37    24.83P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       32   58  +15      12.41    91.89    12.94    76.81     5.25    14.04     0.09     0.77    81.14    12.99P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough    31   52  +10       0.37    51.52    -3.82    77.91     5.46    18.57     0.12     1.16    86.69    26.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall         32   47   +6       1.42    57.02     3.31    67.71     5.13     8.26     0.00     0.00    14.99     3.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon         33   46   +6      -7.15    20.51    -5.78    66.38     5.02     9.76     0.00     0.00    10.11     2.68P    0.01R    0.00  
MK_Dons         33   46   +3      -5.35    26.95    -6.05    64.82     5.02     4.41     0.00     0.00     6.24     1.49P    0.04R    0.00  
Port_Vale       32   43   -5       3.42    65.92     2.16    59.34     5.11   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.10P    1.47R    0.03  
Bradford        32   41   +5       1.36    56.91    11.17    57.98     5.06     1.62     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P    2.28R    0.06  
Sheff_Utd       31   38   -5      -7.84    17.36    -9.94    58.93     5.34    -4.26     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.17P    2.07R    0.06  
Gillingham      33   38  -13       0.67    53.98    -0.38    52.52     4.83   -18.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.50R    1.74  
Coventry        31   37   +3       1.10    55.28    -1.74    59.29     5.47     5.37     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.24P    2.05R    0.10  
Oldham          33   37   -9      -1.48    43.52     0.91    52.70     4.83   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.39R    1.52  
Carlisle        32   36  -17       0.33    52.58    -3.31    50.74     4.91   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   34.34R    4.96  
Colchester      30   35   -3      -2.01    40.73     3.18    54.65     5.42    -6.60     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   11.69R    1.06  
Crawley_Town    27   35   -4       1.24    57.12     1.11    59.64     6.11    -6.11     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.24P    3.41R    0.22  
Tranmere        32   35  -17      -3.50    34.41    -8.61    53.10     5.12   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.13R    2.05  
Crewe           33   34  -25       0.44    53.16    -5.51    47.00     4.68   -32.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.80R   18.54  
Bristol_City    33   32   -8     -13.11     7.00    -7.15    50.77     5.07    -6.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   29.20R    4.68  
Shrewsbury      32   31  -12      -6.01    23.44    -2.15    47.68     4.97   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.94R   13.65  
Notts_County    33   30  -13     -12.50     7.04    -8.35    47.53     5.01   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.22R   13.17  
Stevenage       31   28  -21      -5.77    23.81    -7.79    44.32     5.11   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.44R   38.18  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Cheltenham 1 4 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Chesterfield         33   61  +25       3.25    64.58     6.97    84.24     4.90    32.83    53.81    93.74    99.98    95.94P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe           33   59  +19       1.73    57.13     1.43    81.95     4.99    26.38    28.91    85.23    99.84    90.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             32   57  +14       7.20    79.96     5.23    79.19     5.24    18.42    12.81    66.69    98.92    75.34P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +18       2.76    62.58     7.86    74.38     4.88    20.32     2.93    28.60    94.49    48.08P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   53   +3       7.56    80.72     2.41    70.25     4.87     2.34     0.39     6.73    73.37    20.05P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   52   +9       6.11    76.26     5.95    71.62     5.18     9.67     0.94    12.76    82.20    28.36P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   49   +9      -2.13    40.29     0.40    68.90     4.94    12.06     0.18     5.34    68.20    23.68P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             32   45   -3       4.03    69.14     0.19    62.38     4.98    -5.08     0.01     0.25    16.01     3.14P    0.23R    0.05  
Newport_County       30   42   +1       7.48    82.21    10.62    61.01     5.54    -3.30     0.01     0.30    13.59     2.29P    1.17R    0.27  
Hartlepool           33   42   -2      -4.86    29.30    -4.83    60.94     4.95    -0.21     0.00     0.06    11.33     2.90P    0.59R    0.13  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   41   -5       2.24    61.26     4.04    56.89     4.82    -7.55     0.00     0.00     2.45     0.41P    4.39R    1.11  
York                 33   40   +1      -1.83    42.12     5.04    56.84     4.81    -0.20     0.00     0.01     2.37     0.52P    3.78R    1.04  
Dag_&_Red            32   40   -2      -1.05    45.64     1.82    58.64     5.16    -2.63     0.00     0.03     5.49     1.03P    2.66R    0.78  
Morecambe            32   40   -6      -0.93    46.28    -2.10    57.71     5.06    -7.94     0.00     0.01     3.74     0.75P    3.73R    0.92  
Bury                 31   39   +1      -6.37    23.12    -3.35    60.93     5.46     3.03     0.00     0.22    14.45     4.18P    1.08R    0.30  
Exeter               33   39   -5      -5.79    25.64    -4.58    56.77     4.94    -5.01     0.00     0.00     2.34     0.54P    4.71R    1.28  
Cheltenham           32   39   -7      -3.79    33.01    -5.80    57.07     5.08    -8.47     0.00     0.00     2.82     0.68P    4.90R    1.39  
Portsmouth           33   39  -11      -8.24    17.76   -14.07    57.23     5.01   -10.45     0.00     0.00     2.86     0.78P    4.39R    1.24  
Bristol_Rovers       32   38   -2      -3.42    34.62     0.94    56.71     5.09    -2.42     0.00     0.01     2.88     0.62P    5.07R    1.49  
Mansfield            33   38  -13       2.18    61.13     0.77    53.20     4.86   -16.76     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P   19.61R    7.40  
Wycombe              32   37   -4      -5.05    27.58    -1.89    55.19     5.09    -5.26     0.00     0.01     1.57     0.29P    8.93R    3.05  
Accrington_Stanley   32   37   -7      -1.73    42.56     0.05    53.95     5.00   -10.05     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.15P   13.92R    4.80  
Northampton          32   32  -16      -6.04    23.58    -8.18    48.96     5.02   -19.01     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   51.16R   26.74  
Torquay              32   30  -17      -7.99    16.47    -8.90    46.51     5.01   -20.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   69.69R   48.01  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2014, Braintree_Town 1 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Luton            32   72  +55       6.56    79.75    18.79   101.39     4.61    72.48    99.53   100.00    99.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    31   58  +25       7.19    81.42    12.71    83.06     5.14    32.02     0.41    95.61    28.71P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet           34   57  +11       0.26    51.04    -4.49    76.91     4.61    16.24     0.00    71.12    20.99P    0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town    33   57   +0      14.76    95.89     5.59    75.97     4.80     1.33     0.01    60.10     7.49P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury        33   53   +0      10.75    89.09     5.28    67.80     4.77    -4.94     0.00     7.83     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Nuneaton         34   53   -4      10.68    89.81     2.69    67.55     4.49    -6.96     0.00     6.45     0.86P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        34   51   +7       2.35    60.96     4.10    67.72     4.56     7.34     0.00     7.86     1.54P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster    32   50   +4      -1.76    41.59    -8.49    71.38     5.09     7.29     0.00    26.71     6.55P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   49  +13       0.04    50.11    -0.82    77.24     5.60    21.02     0.04    70.97    21.93P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax          34   48  +10       0.03    50.65     8.77    65.01     4.73    10.64     0.00     3.49     0.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     31   47   +6       1.05    55.23     0.92    67.05     5.37     5.01     0.00     9.13     1.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Welling          32   46   +6       2.96    63.94     7.65    64.32     5.09     4.53     0.00     3.11     0.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     30   44  +14      -3.94    31.40     2.93    68.43     5.50    17.59     0.00    15.40     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          33   43   +0      -9.18    13.64   -10.92    63.68     4.86     4.27     0.00     1.72     0.44P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   43   -4      -1.57    43.09    -0.27    57.28     4.52    -7.40     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.81R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   27   42   +9       4.48    72.38     8.21    69.42     5.98    10.90     0.00    20.41     3.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           34   42  -11       0.77    54.20    -1.32    54.64     4.38   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.98R    0.00  
Hereford         33   39  -11      -5.88    24.42    -9.91    56.00     4.71   -12.09     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.32R    0.00  
Chester          33   35  -17       1.02    55.83     0.79    49.76     4.53   -22.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.91R    0.00  
Southport        33   34  -20      -2.27    39.46    -4.72    48.92     4.72   -24.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.31R    0.00  
Aldershot        32   33   +5      -8.75    15.29    -7.33    57.78     4.96    13.85     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.27R    0.00  
Dartford         34   33  -19      -6.30    22.91    -6.33    47.40     4.55   -22.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.37R    0.00  
Tamworth         32   29  -21      -4.78    27.46    -4.79    42.39     4.68   -30.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.96R    0.00  
Hyde_United      34    9  -58     -17.50     0.41   -19.04    16.89     3.77   -74.86     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10